Sunday, April 03, 2005
No case for the defence against Hearts
It was as though we were transported back to the early 1990’s. Lots of the ball, plenty of effort all undermined by some schoolboy defending.
The two early goals Hearts scored yesterday were bad enough; however, the defensive lapses did not stop there; Hearts could have, and should have, scored with four excellent second half chances.
Celtic, for all their possession and probing never looked convincing. Wallace, Hartson and eventually Bellamy all had good chances to pull a goal back, however, with the Hearts defenders sticking to their task, they were all denied.
Aiden McGeady looked intent on taking control of the game early on. A series of passes to Hearts players slowly diminished his confidence and influence before he was substituted for Maloney in the second half.
I have reserved judgement on Stephan Henchoz thus far, as we have only seen him in glimpses against teams who have not asked too many questions. My football instincts tell me that it is unfair to judge a player who has not had a run in the team, however, Stephan has now given himself a poor early reputation at Celtic. Having scarcely figured in the team for two months we can now see how out of touch he is.
The excuses are all there if you want to go and look for them; players tired from long midweek journeys, one or two carrying a knock, however, the truth is that Celtic defended like this against Dundee United last time out.
After Henchoz went off O’Neill reverted to four at the back, with Alan Thompson at left back. A decision which I am sure concerned Thompson as much as the rest of us. The last thing he needs right now, with his form wavering a bit, is to play yet another position.
Neil Lennon won the sponsors man-of-the-match award, however, Jackie McNamara got my vote. He is having his best season at Celtic, better even than season ’97-’98 when he won player-of-the-year. He knows where to be and knows what to do when he gets there.
In the autumn when Martin O’Neill wanted to tighten up the defence he pulled Thompson into the middle, which offered more protection, but imbalanced the midfield. I expect a similar play against Hearts next week.
25 Comments:
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Henchoz looked very uncomfortable at right back, and was responsible for Hearts' 2nd goal. Even in primary school, we were taught to put the ball out of play in that situation. I don't even think he was injured when he was replaced after only 30 mins, I think he simply just got the hook. To me, he looked cumbersome, and he's not done himself any favours nearing the end of his loan deal.
Varga had a nightmare. The worse display I think I've seen from him.
McGeady and Bellamy both started well, but quickly fell away when getting no change from the eleven man Hearts defence.
Thompson was poor in his out of position slot at left-back, but then he's been under-achieving all season long, with one or two exceptions. He could do with being rested.
Wallace missed a great chance on the stroke of half-time. I believe this would've made all the difference. He packs a great dig, but his right leg is just for standing on.
Where's Pearson for this position? I thought he was over his injury problems. I know he'd a fall-out with MON, but I'm told it's been resolved. Time to give him a run-out on the left.
Jackie did well, but I agreed with the sponsors in their man-of-the-match choice. Lennon was superb. He looked like he was one of the very few who was hurting deeply at losing the game, as his set-to with two Hearts players in the centre circle at the death showed.
I disagree with the prophets of doom, in conceding the title. Get real! There's a lot of football to be played yet. I'm well aware yesterday was bad, but it's still very much in our own hands.
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The defence has been highly suspect all season. Bellamy's hat-trick was almost undone 2 weeks ago by poor defending; also the home defeats against Rangers and Aberdeen etc. We need a top class goalkeeper, centre half and a new midfielder who can dictate a bit more. Don't know where Laursen was yesterday but effectively we made 3 changes at the back: no Laursen, Henchoz and Marshall and didn't get away with it. I think we can still win the league but much more tough now. Castle Greyskull will be potential decider............
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If I may digress for a moment, I'm from the east coast of Scotland, and since I'm firmly of the belief that all SFA employees hold a "west coast bias", can anyone tell me whether, since you're all a homogenous eccumenical community with a common cause to oppress the east coast footballing fraternity, will there be a minute's silence before the Motherwell-Rangers game today in memort of His Holiness the Bishop of Rome? Of course since I remember a minute's silence not so long ago in memory of both the Queen Mother and Princess Diana, who were also non-footballing figures with a similarly dubious elevated status in the west of Scotland, this would only seem fair? Angus McSheepshagger
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Can I be the first to add a comment here. I agree with much of what you say there but can I add that yesterday I was disgusted. Disgusted with the attitude of many players, very little common sense ever applied, very little spirit eg Hartson jogging gently to somewhere near the box whilst Bellamy was busting a gut to get to the byeline I think just after the second goal. Balde letting the ball run out then leaving it, no sense of urgency to get the ball back, almost arrogantly. Mind you the two ball boys who sit behind the goal at the Lisbon Lions end have got to be the laziest wee gits out. The one on the right NEVER moves. Only Lennon and Bellamy seemed annoyed generally. I'll let McGeady off he is due a bad day and Petrov who genuinely looked exhausted but most of the rest were a bad joke. If the reserves are so good why can't some of them be used. Hope they are better than Wallace and Maloney. I was disgusted at the fans booing of BQ at half time, that was pathetic. I'm not a massive fan of him but lets get real here. He gave O'Neill the money, O'Neill gambled on the existing players week in week out, its one (perhaps two) seasons too far. Petrov is exhausted but you can't rest him etc etc. As said before we have a very small team and a massive squad of players we can't dare to use. That is O'Neils choosing, no one elses. For the record I'll take the bad with the good, hope he stays and turns things round, I think he will. If I was a multi millionaire possibly going to invest in Celtic the so called GFITW would have massively put me off yesterday. Well done everyone hope you are happy. Mind you if Panorama come back they need look no further than the back of the Lisbon Lions stand for another type of 'support'. One final point. I have one main job. If I choose to do a separate job or unpaid work or even a 'dangerous' hobby alongside this then it must not interfere with my main job. The main job of the 26 players on international football is to play for Celtic not their respective geographical rocks which stick out the water (where in some cases their grandfathers only may have resided). It is not acceptible that players leave and return in a different condition especially at such a critical point in the season. PS I've just previewed this and seen that there are earlier comments.
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ha you are right about the early 90z.
I feel for Henchoz, after he gave the ball away for the second he was visibly shaken, he had to get the hook. MON had no choice, unfortunately this all but ends his chances of having a celtic career. After he gave the ball away though, it still took Bobo to get caught the wrong side and too far away from his man, and then an obvious finish from Burchill, which perhaps I wouldve liked our keeper to have saved, for them to score. Henchoz wasnt the sole cause.
McGeagy had to go. He was giving the ball away every time. He is young, he will have days like that. He can be excused.
If BBJ is fit then he is not good enough. Every time he and his marker fall over each other, its the defender who is on his feet quickest. why? tiredness? attitude? injury?
We need a fit Sutty up front with Bellemy for this run in. We need Thomo to find what he has lost this season, We need Bobo and Varga to stop pondering and start choppin.
I agree about Jackie, he is a constant example to others, alongside Stan and Lenny, who never give in.
Hearts yesterday chopped Bellemy and took the free kick rather than let him run at them. Its time Bobo and Varga got cynical on thier men rather than trying to play football at the back. They are not good enough for that.
I presume everyone has read this, BBC Quotebut We all know this team has reached its end. MON knows it, Quinn knows it, they are supporters too. They also watch every game.
The league is still there to be won, and next season I expect to see four or five new faces in the line for our CL qualifiing game.
Mon the 'well.
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Angus McSheepshagger...you're having a laugh, right?
Hell will freeze over before the huns have a minutes silence for the greatest man of modern times.
In fact, look for them to give it laldy today in Motherwell, with all their obscene little ditties on the sad events of last night.
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A few things to get off my chest:
Slow, lethargic and immobile. Unable to cope with the more urgent Hearts pressing and closing down.
Same defensive confusion and indecision -as if Dundee United's first goal didn't rang any alarm bells. Well it did for me.
Balde and another player (maybe Varga) not bothering to chase after the ball after it had went out of play for a goal kick.
Quinn. Those who boo this man bring shame on our club. Simple as that. I'm not a fan of his, but will the board suddenly say: "Oh Crumbs! the fans aren't happy better get the cheque book out" C'mon get real. If you want to make a stand. Please do so at a time when we are not 7 games away from the league. Also there is a car park for that sort of thing. I'm all for the right to show displeasure, but this will not help.
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Morning all...
Couldn't agree more Paul...School boy defending was to blame!!
A very frustrating day!!
I did have a worry when I looked at the subs bench before kick off:
Sylla Hedman Fernandez Lambert Maloney
Thinking to myself I hope we dont have to turn this one round....
The Defence The return of the sieve:
Balde only looks like a solid defender when he is playing alongside someone who is playing well. Unfortunatelty Varga has been returning to his Sunderland form of late.
AS for Henchoz - to give him a bit of credit he isnt a right back... So why were we playing him as one!! (If Varga was so tired why not play Henchoz in the centre) Saying that though a defender no matter where he is playing should never head the ball to the opposition in the position he was in for the second goal.
As we already have two ageing central defenders that struggle for pace (which burchill and Miller exposed) on long term contracts, do we really need to sign Henchoz? with kennedy coming back(hopefully)surely this situation is perfect for a 1 Year Loan deal....
McNamara was as usual controlled, confident and assured... Player of the year for me!!
The Midfield: I thought lennon did 'alright'...but I thought the days we got excited about players who tackled and broke down play and added not much else had passed with Peter Grant....
Stan looked a bit jaded and McGeady was trying his best but not making much headway (no wonder he lost confidence...the North Stand boo boys must be missing Didier...)... So with 2 of 3 midfieders struggling step up Lenny...oh but hes a defensive midfielder...oh well nevermind then!!
Re the Mcgeady substitution......I can't believe MON put on maloney..(Maloney said the other night he was well off match pace and he was very disappointed in his recent form and he had a long way to go).....Surely Fernandez who has been doing well in the reserves may have been able to add something....
The Forward Line:
Pressley (as always) sent a firm message to Bellamy in the first 5 minutes and it took him out of the game for a while, but after dusting himself down he was still looking very effective! As for BBJ; the other night I played 5 a sides for the first time in 6 months and I thought I looked more lively than Hartson did yesterday...There was one moment in the 2nd half where Wallace and Bellamy interchanged- Bellamy got to the by-line and Hartson was still about 10 yards outside the box .... same again in the first half...Bellamy worked some space on the left and crossed a fast ball in to the front post....Who was just about there....a jaded Stan Petrov...Hartson was still catching up with play.....a total waste of space!!!...Saying that I never booed him once!
Rant over...
My prediction for the day Motherwell 2 Rangers 1.... Woops just spilled my glass!
PS Anyone get a spare ticket for the semis next weekend?
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Dear Mr. peterm1711 (strange names you west-coasters have) I am most dismayed that the loyal followers of one of Glasgow's most prestigious clubs might express such attitudes. You'll be telling me next that is not possible to be both a Billy and a Tim simultaneously. It is quite clear to me that for the last 100 years referees have always supported both clubs and express favouritism for their 'other' Glasgow team when they play Hearts, Dunfermline etc. You're not surely suggesting that esteemed men such as Tiny Wharton, Ian Foote, Hugh Dallas, Kenny Hope, Willie Young and Mike McCurry don't have a wee soft spot for Celtic when they're playing Hearts or Dunfermline? Anyway, I must get back to dipping my sheep. What's this here - 'Caution: organophosphates are potent neurotoxins and their use must be exercised with care' rubbish, I ve been using them for years for dipping my sheep in and they've never done me any harm.........' Bye for now, Angus McSheepshagger
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I've being watching the replays of yesterday's goals and anyone who claims that Balde is at fault for either ought to do the same.
Briefly, Henchoz unnecessarily gave away the free-kick for the first but given the position this should not to have been a problem. At the free kick, Balde was marking someone and ball easily cleared him. However, Varga was next in-line and looked like he was marking Balde rather than any Hearts player. Who was tracking Miller is the obvious question? The real villain as far as I'm concerned was Hartson who was a spectator as two Hearts players, including Miller, ran in to meet the ball. Yes, Varga should have been marking one of these guys but he wasn't and the only Celtic player who could see this was Hartson. Why he didn't make more of an attempt to defend against this is hard to understand. Can he be that unfit? Or does he just not take his defending reponsibilities seriously enough?
As for the second goal, Henchoz not once but twice headed balls back to Hearts players in the space of about 5 seconds. As we know the second was fatal. His passing, which is reputed to be one of his strengths, was pretty weak but I'm willing to forgive him if he learns from this game. As for earlier comments about Balde being on the wrong side of Burchill, you've got to be kidding. Balde wasn't to know that Henchoz was going to give the ball away so cheaply and it would be ridiculous for him to play with that expectation. The replay highlights the heavy-footed Varga as being more at fault. He was on the right side of Burchill but was too slow to check his run. Marshal didn't look too clever either but I'd be more critical of his ability to organise his defence for the free-kick that led to the first goal - he should have been screaming at Varga to get on someone. He justifiably did lots of complaining afterwards but you know what they say about the stable door.
Ultimately it can be pointless going over this stuff in too much detail. The fact is that both goals could have been easily prevented with better defending. It seems that until we have better defenders we will be stuck with displays like yesterday's. I've never been convinced by Varga despite the fact that he has played some wonderful matches in a Celtic shirt. At this level, when there is such a thin line between success and failure, it's just not good enough to play nine good games out of ten and then have a howler. I won't spill any tears if we let him go in the Summer. And since I can't see Hartson fitting in with our higher tempo game it's perhaps time that we showed him the door too. He's been a great servant in recent years but there can be no room for sentiment if we want to push on.
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Sorry for the change in subject Bhoys,Just to let you know that the London Road school,directly outside the main stand is due to close very soon as you would know.From the plans I have seen in my Dept. of Planning at the Roads & Infrastructure there is big changes planned for this area and the training area around the stadium,This won't happen for sometime though,but that is I can say for now,hopefully more news soon.No need to worry too much longer about getting yer sannies aw durty though!(or yer fake Prada)
Don't forget to say a prayer for the big man!
Steamroller Paddy
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A few comments on yesterday's match...
The following has been copied from the BBC's text commentary on the match, and details the events starting with Heart's first goal:
7:57 GOAL - Lee Miller Celtic 0 - Hearts 1Headed goal by Lee Miller (Hearts) (top-right of goal) from right side of penalty area (6 yards).Celtic 0-1 Hearts. Assist (header) by Andy Webster (Hearts) from right side of penalty area.
9:04 Booking Foul by Steven Pressley (Hearts) on Aiden McGeady (Celtic). Steven Pressley (Hearts) booked for unsporting behaviour. Free kick crossed left-footed by Alan Thompson (Celtic) from left wing, clearance by Lee Miller (Hearts).
10:36 Foul by Steven Pressley (Hearts) on Aiden McGeady (Celtic). Free kick taken right-footed by Aiden McGeady (Celtic) from own half, resulting in open play.
10:53 Booking Foul by Robbie Neilson (Hearts) on Aiden McGeady (Celtic). Robbie Neilson (Hearts) booked for unsporting behaviour. Free kick taken right-footed by Aiden McGeady (Celtic) from left channel, header by John Hartson (Celtic) from centre of penalty area (6 yards), over the bar.
So Hearts score, then in less than 2 minutes McGeady is fouled THREE TIMES, leading to two Hearts players being booked. And indeed, Steven Pressley went straight back in on McGeady within 90 seconds of being booked for fouling the same player...
Wasn't it the Hearts manager who complained earlier in the season that CELTIC were too physical? But in light of the treatment clearly being meted out to the young McGeady, it is perhaps unsurprising that he went on to have a poor game by his own high standards. Perhaps he'd have had more protection had Sutty been on the pitch.
However, in spite of all that and whatever else, I am still shocked to read all the damning criticism of OUR players, and of the booing of Brian Quinn. Our new friends from Villarreal were over for their much publicised trip to the home of the supposed GFITW, and they witness our fans booing our own! What do you think they made of THAT!?
And hey, we lost a game. Shit happens. Let's get over it, learn from it, put it behind us and back the team as they continue to challenge for the title probably right to the wire.
Isn't it a measure of how far we have come in recent years that every defeat is treated as though it's the end of the world!?
We are Celtic supporters (faithful through and through), and we are therefore supposed to SUPPORT the team and the players (and the management!), through thick and thin, through the highs and the lows. The players need that support most of all when things are not going to plan.
When they are winning 6-0 they can get by on the feel-good factor. But when they are having a nightmare they need us to lift them and spur them on, NOT to berate them for every little (or even large) indiscretion. This only serves to undermine their confidence and accentuate the crisis... they ARE only human after all, even if they are grossly overpaid like ALL top level professional footballers.
We all know that major changes are required to move the team and the club forward. MON has publicly stated that he expects a number of new faces in and others to leave the club. The board have indicated that funds will be made available, particularly to secure the permanent signing of Bellamy, IF he wants to stay - and wil the fans' performance yesterday really have improved the chances of him wanting to stay?
So let's trust these guys to do their jobs and sort it out. We know who needs to go, and so I'm sure do the guys who make the decisions. They don't want to see tens of thousands of pounds being spent every week on players who do not have a part to play. They want to see this money freed up to bring in fresh talent and give the club fresh impetus to move onwards and upwards.
Let's SUPPORT the whole club in their efforts, through and through.
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Evening Paul,fellow tims. See the boo boys are back in town. One bad performance and everybody is to blame except the man who puts the team on the park. Just an off day which every team has,just ask Newcastle.Maybe if we were in the EPL we wouldn't be up against such strong opposition and we would be able to win every game with the extra 20 million we would get from TV money(free 20 million at that).Any body think we may have missed Laursen at the back? Sorry, I said last week that I thought we would be lucky to get into the UEFA cup if we were in the EPL,but on last night's showing, we would be lucky to stay in the thing.Maybe now we will come down from cloud seven or eight or "higher grounds" we think we belong, and get to grips with what we need for the team instead of some pie in the sky move to another league.Even with the obvious financial advantage we have at the moment over every team in our league(and I include Rangers in that)we still struggle to put daylight between ourselves and the rest.Me thinks MON doth protest too much about lack of funds.But then again,having said that,it is not over until the fat lady sings,(gosh, that's 2 quotes from somebody else).So a bit less of the boos (regardless of who they are aimed at)and a bit more encouragement wouldn't really go amiss at this stage of the season. Even from those of us who sit upon "higher ground".I happen to think we currently have the personnel available right now to take this league by the scruff of the neck and have it finished with a week to spare as I am confident Rangers will once again drop points (although as I speak they lead 3-1).But I also think it will take a lot of support from the terraces for this to happen,instead of the constant moans and groans when things aren't entirely going the way we like.God if that was the case,there wouldn't have been one song sung during the Nineties(well okay maybe 98).
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Sorry make that 3-2
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and I see "Bazza" has been sent off
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Ah well one point behind and all to play for.C'mon the Celtic
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The team had a dreadfull day at the office, hearts had a decent one.
Can someone expand on why celtics goal was disallowed? I have still to see the highlights. Henchov was played out of place and looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights. Why was jackie mac not played at right back?. If varga was so tired why was he not rested and henchov played in his place. If laursen was injured for the left back position why was macmanus not played?.
Why did we start with a 5-3-2 formation. Would we not have been better starting of with a back four of macnamarra henchov balde and macmanus the onus on a natural left sided player. If petrov was so tired why was he not rested why do we have lambert, pearson, wallace ,sylla etc. MON got it wrong yesterday and tried to rectify it by bringing on wallace and subsequently maloney we panicked and we got caught out. Everybody has off days as do football teams, some would say were having an off year. The board no the fans are unhappy at not building on seville this can be seen in the comments coming out to-day re bellamy. Will it be enough no we need to re build in several places we all know what they are and who should be moved on.
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Hi 4:52 Anon, We had one, if not two, players offside on the disallowed goal - clear cut. Well what a stinker from our team. One of their worst displays in a long time. They know it, the coaching staff knows and all the fans know it. I have said on a number of occasions that the team has been in natural decline for some time and it seems to manifest in an inability to sustain consistently good performance game after game. They can rise to it on occasions, but these seem to be getting longer apart and this game produced a new trough. Nevertheless our team needs the fans to help carry them over the finish line. Please give them the extra lift they will need until the end of the season. Our role from here on in will be more important to their success than ever before.
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Interesting comments on the Hearts game. Unfortunately I didn't see it, but it would appear that a few home truths are being made evident.
The dawning of the 'Bosman' transfer era has not resulted in a shopping paradise for football managers. Quite the opposite in fact. If we were to look at our 'bosman's (Varga, Junihno, Henchoz) then I think it becomes fairly evident that they have proved to be fruitless (although Varga has given some excellent performances in his time at Parkhead).
We need to be aiming higher, and players sitting on the sidelines in the EPL are not capable of improving our team - with the exception of those at Man U./Arsenal/Chelsea.
As I have said before we should be looking to spend, but in more realistic transfer markets than the overpriced EPL. Looking at the clubs currently in European competition, France and Holland both have 2 sides, while Russia, Austria + Portugal all have one each. We should be looking at these markets like these to get value for money, at affordable prices: both in terms of transfer fees and salaries.
Furthermore, I think MON needs to try to seal contracts with low basic salaries with high bonuses attached: ie performance related. Is it coincidence that Hartson + Thompson are now playing so badly, and Lennon so well, while Sutton is persistently injured. I would have no hesitation in giving Lennon a new contract, but it should be performance/appearence related with big bonuses stipulated in the contract.
I think MON will spend in the summer, let's hope he has learned from his mistakes.
KD FfM
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Interesting comments on the Hearts game. Unfortunately I didn't see it, but it would appear that a few home truths are being made evident.
The dawning of the 'Bosman' transfer era has not resulted in a shopping paradise for football managers. Quite the opposite in fact. If we were to look at our 'bosman's (Varga, Junihno, Henchoz) then I think it becomes fairly evident that they have proved to be fruitless (although Varga has given some excellent performances in his time at Parkhead).
We need to be aiming higher, and players sitting on the sidelines in the EPL are not capable of improving our team - with the exception of those at Man U./Arsenal/Chelsea.
As I have said before we should be looking to spend, but in more realistic transfer markets than the overpriced EPL. Looking at the clubs currently in European competition, France and Holland both have 2 sides, while Russia, Austria + Portugal all have one each. We should be looking at these markets like these to get value for money, at affordable prices: both in terms of transfer fees and salaries.
Furthermore, I think MON needs to try to seal contracts with low basic salaries with high bonuses attached: ie performance related. Is it coincidence that Hartson + Thompson are now playing so badly, and Lennon so well, while Sutton is persistently injured. I would have no hesitation in giving Lennon a new contract, but it should be performance/appearence related with big bonuses stipulated in the contract.
I think MON will spend in the summer, let's hope he has learned from his mistakes.
KD FfM
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just a bad day at the office,what a load of b****cks,thats 3 home games this season weve dropped points[good job the huns are so bad else we would be out of the running by now]this team has been together too long and to many players are taking good money for little return ie syla,lambert,fernandez,junino etc. i hate to have a go at our top scorer but bbj is really struggling and were stuck with him for 2/3yrs.all that money going out the door for nothing in return and m.o.n worshiped by the faithful. we need to ship out thompson,lennon,douglas,hedman and the shysters i mentioned earlier, or we could just pretend its only a blip and watch our title cross the city. what a difference sice seville,and maybe martin should look at himself as well. i love the guy for what he's given us but we can only live for the day
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just a bad day at the office,what a load of b****cks,thats 3 home games this season weve dropped points[good job the huns are so bad else we would be out of the running by now]this team has been together too long and to many players are taking good money for little return ie syla,lambert,fernandez,junino etc. i hate to have a go at our top scorer but bbj is really struggling and were stuck with him for 2/3yrs.all that money going out the door for nothing in return and m.o.n worshiped by the faithful. we need to ship out thompson,lennon,douglas,hedman and the shysters i mentioned earlier, or we could just pretend its only a blip and watch our title cross the city. what a difference sice seville,and maybe martin should look at himself as well. i love the guy for what he's given us but we can only live for the day
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Saturday was like the vast majority of games this season ... not enjoyable. Hands up, how many games have you enjoyed and hbeen entertained at this season at Celtic Park? Relying on a 19 year old to be the creative hub ain't gonna win us the SPL. Some guys are living on past glories, Thompson & Hartson & to a lesser extent Sutton & Petrov. I've never looked up the figures, but I'd be surprised if we get 70% appearances out of Sutton, Harston & Thompson over the season.
The booing of BQ was shocking, but not unexpected, as we had to take our wrath out on someone, & sad to say, the majority of this country buy into the red-tops. As Paul has atriculated, MO'N has been backed by the board (anyone whos says otherwise should check their facts), he however has chosen to spend the cash on retaining an aging squad, rather than some speculation. he's a percentage man, always was, always will be. It is intersting to note that his 2nd sport is American Football, where set plays and percentages are order of the day
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Re: Celtic for second seeds.
Thought it was worth having an update on this situation. The thought of being so close yet so far from being in that pot next year...well, it can go either way :(
We are in 22nd position. The worst we would finish in the rankings is 23rd, but assume we do finish 22nd.
Deportivo, Newcastle, Roma, Lazio, Parma and Leverkusen all look very unlikely to make the CL next season. That gives us 16th spot.
The problem is Villareal. They are 6 points behind us in rankings, but can still get those 6.something points from the remaining 5 matches and the bonus points available.
Assuming they won the Cup and overtook us, that would mean we're back in the dreaded 17th position.
So, given that situation we would then require one of the following to happen:
1. Liverpool to finish 5th. Given Everton's recent collapse I would suggest this is very unlikely.
2. Both Valencia and Deportivo to finish outwith the top 4 in Spain. Valencia are 2 points behind and Deportivo 5. This is highly unlikely.
3. One of the top seeds above us in the 3rd qualifying round of the CL failing to qualify. An outside chance at best.
So, essentially it all boils down to VillaReal. I for one will not be cheering them on and hope they get dumped out of the Uefa cup by Semi-final stage! ;)
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But you are assuming that Villarreal actually qualify for the CL next season.
Granted, they currently appear well positioned to do so, but fighting on two fronts may come back to haunt them (as happened to us in 2002/3). The nearer they get to the UEFA Cup Final, the more likely they are to slip up in La Liga, and there are at least three teams (none of whom are anywhere near Celtic in the European rankings) poised to take advantage of any slip-ups.
Seville could yet bring us another opportunity for European success (by displacing Villarreal to 5th spot, with the help of Espanyol or Real Betis).
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