 Thursday, June 02, 2005
Premiership plans for America, Asia, Celtic, Rangers and how Glazer will deliver
Well my friends in Celtic, we are passing through the looking glass. Football is about to undergo its most significant change since the arrival of European competition in 1955. And it is all down to a very determined American.
In buying Manchester United Malcolm Glazer has opened a whole new world of opportunities for football on this island. I will explain the financial background to this deal before I discuss the wider consequences for football.
Glazer has offered £790million for the club, some £540million of which is borrowed money. The deal looked in jeopardy for some time as traditional lenders were reluctant to support it.
£275million of the borrowings are ‘pay in kind’ (PIK) loans from three different hedge funds, Perry Capital, Citadel and Och-Ziff.
PIKs do not require the borrower to pay interest during the term of the loan in the normal way; instead all interest is repayable at the end of the loan along with the capital amount. They are considered a high risk for investors (lenders) and attract a high interest rate.
I understand Glazer is paying 17% interest on his PIKs. This portion of the debt will double in value if not repaid within 5 years.
Not only is Glazer paying ‘top dollar’ on his borrowings, the total amount paid for the club of £790million is exceptionally high given the current trading environment.
To service his debt and make an adequate return on his investment he will have to clear over £80million per annum. This is a tall order for a club which has only made more than £15million pre-tax profit twice in its history and whose turnover was £169million last year.
No wonder the Manchester United fans are concerned. Either Glazer will succeed in changing the financial structure of football beyond recognition, or their club is saddled with a potentially terminal amount of debt to service.
If Glazer fails, a Leeds United style meltdown in not only likely, it is inevitable. Fortunately for Manchester United fans and Celtic, Glazer is not playing roulette; he has a well prepared business strategy including crucially the necessary support from third parties to succeed.
Glazer needs to secure his own TV rights as the very first step towards repaying his borrowings, never mind providing a profitable return.
This puts him on a collision course with the FA Premiership. Last month Premiership chief executive Peter Scudamore said: “'The Premier League is blessed with a very conservative constitution. Fourteen clubs out of 20 need to vote to do anything.
“It is almost impossible….for a small group of clubs to come along and achieve an alteration to what has been a very successful formula, both in terms of the way we do the TV deals and also the way we distribute the money.
“Many have tried, but to get to 14 out of 20 is an amazing thing”. The big worry for the Premiership is that they cannot see what Glazers next move will be.
The most powerful club in England now needs enormous change to survive. This change would also benefit Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle United and Celtic, each of whom has ambitious investors to satisfy.
These clubs are correct to suggest that the Premiership (and SPL in the case of Celtic) in its current form is inhibiting their commercial and football progress. Their directors have a duty to their shareholders to optimise their operating environment.
There is as much value in the English clubs playing Wigan Athletic, Fulham or Portsmouth as there is Celtic playing Livingston, even if they get to keep their broadcast revenue. If the major British clubs want to maximise their revenues they needs to play teams capable to selling TV rights and advertising, and only such teams.
In 2006 these clubs will publicly take steps towards establishing a truly super-league for the major clubs on this island. Nothing will be said on the matter until then.
Changes to the FA Premiership will be proposed beyond simply inviting Celtic and Rangers to join, this will happen as a mere consequence of the other planned changes.
This proposal will set entry requirements, such as club stadiums requiring Uefa Four Star status, though this is likely to move to Five Star status within a short period (50,000 seats, enormous media facilities and a large international airport nearby).
Such criteria will ensure that each game is contested by major clubs playing in front of large crowds in world class stadiums. It will limit the chances of plucky teams like Bolton Wanderers, who might manage to punch above their weight every now and again.
Clubs such as Rangers, Everton, Tottenham, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Middlesbrough will all back the plan, as it would guarantee them a place at the top table.
The league will be smaller than its current size, ideally with only 30 games, which will leave time during pre-season and January to evangelise the North American and Asian markets, each of which will have a lucrative competition.
The Premiership clubs who lose out will have a choice of voting the change through and accepting a parachute payment which will keep them in business, or facing a breakaway league without the parachute payment and a financial black hole.
This new league would tower over all other leagues in financial terms, including the Champions League. The majority of clubs should earn more than any other club outside this league, a fact which it is hoped, would see the British clubs dominate European competition.
Clubs in Milan, Turin, Barcelona and Madrid would become islands outside the big league in a similar way Celtic is at the moment and would find it difficult to attract and retain top players.
It is important for Celtic to be part of this and not be left outside. It would make us one of the richest clubs in the world at a stroke, and would mean that we could compete successfully with the likes of Barcelona for players such as Ronaldinho. A position we have never enjoyed before.
It will be good for Glasgow and good for Scotland to have what should become two worldwide sporting brands in the city.
I can hear the gnashing of teeth already. I am not going to argue that this is good for football, as the game means many different things to many different people.
At one time Queens Park and Corinthians dominated football in Scotland and England. Those clubs remained true to their sporting principles; the rest became professional businesses a long time ago.
Football is not being well served on this island by the current leagues. Two European Cup finalists in twenty years is equal to the achievement of Romania, and finishes well behind Germany, Spain and Italy.
For an island so blessed with great stadiums packed with fans paying top price to see their football, performance could hardly get worse.
Whether this fills you full of anticipation or dread, know that Malcolm Glazer will repay his loans when due, and know that football will never quite be the same again.
I’m off to write my business plan.
© Celtic Quick News, use freely if you refer to www.celticquicknews.co.uk
252 Comments:
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I knew that would happen!
Was writing a post on the previous topic knowing full well that your BIG one would be posted at the same time. Ha ha.
Here it is again>>>>>>
I admire you Paul for all the stick you are taking in your own "house" from cyberhuns. The admiration comes from the fact that you leave the majority of the inane postings on here for all to see. Kudos to you.
The problem as I see it, is that there are too many decent bloggers on here taking on the role of "moderator", in defending the personal attacks directed at yourself. This is commendable, but the only tool/weapon they have as "moderator" is "right of reply", which only fuels these fools' purpose.
The simple way to deal with these cyberhuns is to IGNORE THEIR POSTS, or give a few trusted bloggers who have the time to spare some admin rights.
I also agree that this site is becoming difficult to keep up with. Kudos again to you for keeping the masses entertained and informed.
I would hate to see the original format of this site changed dramatically, but the fact is you are going to have to make some dramatic changes here to keep it working as successfuly as it has this past year.
Good luck and best wishes on that front.
PS If anybody is looking for a good messageboard that is frequented and administered by Celts like yourselves, look no further than http://kerrydalestreet.co.uk
This board was created by a guy called Fitzpas with help from other users, when the old E-Tims messageboard was pulled last summer. Can you believe those guys at E-Tims pulled the plug on the messageboard in the last week of the transfer window!! That was just sick E-Tims.
dialupcelt.
PPS Away to read the BIG STORY now.
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Paul,
Just left Play misty for me for 5 minutes to read your article, and I certainly wasn't disappointed.
Well worth the wait.
Barry Woodlock
Motherwell
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I've always wondered what if the top 6 just said "no". I'm going to sleep on this. So much to think / dream about.
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Wish it could happen so quick. but look at the NHL big changes dont happen that fast. fingers crossed though.
Marc breen
Motherwell
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Well researched article Paul.
If this sort of league was to come about, and lets face it, there will be major changes in European Football within 3 years, I wonder how it would effect the rest of football.
I know that we need to be selfish in these circumstances, but how does everyone seeing European Football and the current domestic game evolving in the future?
T.O.T.
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What about UEFA?
I strongly suspected that your story would really put the boot into them and their current powers.
FIFA would be oblivious to such change, as their main jurisdiction is unaffected by all this.
I think what I am trying to say is that I thought Glazer and "others" would have had bigger plans than just "this island".
Bayern, Juventus, Inter, AC, Barca and Real are the bedfellows that I would have thought Glazer would be wanting to pillow talk TV money with.
Let's face it, UEFA are the middle man who have been making money for old rope in recent times on the back of the aforementioned successful clubs.
Another thought is - what do G-14 have to say about all of this, as surely they will be Glazers biggest allies in this revolution?
dialupcelt
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Well sign me up.
This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to reach the level we deserve to be at.
I hope this happens.
It would also have a ripple effect on the continent and you might see a similar thing with certain Spanish and Italian clubs.
Maybe the French and Germans would follow suit.
Anyway you cut it, The face of football is going to change in the next few years.
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How sneaky of you to post yer "Big One" when the civilized world is watching the end of the Desperate Housewives series. Shame on you!
Anyways, interesting stuff, Paul. However, I feel you may have failed to factor in vested interests, political pressure and petty jealousies. The English clubs will be loathe to change their whole structure just to bail out a charmless Yank who has taken the world's most financially-successful club to the brink of bankruptcy. Some may be happy to see him fail big-style.
Also, most of the English clubs will form a self-protective huddle to keep out interlopers from elsewhere, such as us and them. Then there are the MPs who will kick up a stink if their local club looks like being left in the lurch.
Your theory rests on Glazer not being stupid enough to risk hundreds of millions of pounds unless he was sure he could succeed. But this is a market he has no experience in. What happens if he does go belly-up?
In summation, Paul, I sincerely hope you're right but I reckon the road to the promised land may be barred with many more obstacles than you have imagined.
More optimistically, a post on the earlier blog quotes Arsenal chairman David Dein playing down the chances of major change in individual TV rights, but then he adds that it may all change if a club takes the football authorities to court. He doesn't reckon it will happen in the immediate future. But surely he must know Glazer is planning this. And if he succeeds? As they say, then it's a whole different ball game.
Keep 'em coming, Paul. As for nuisance posts, perhaps a switch to an easier format to "police" would help. No doubt you'd find plenty of "sheriffs" to help you! Until then, let's all just ignore them and move on.
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Hello paul ,fellow celts. Paul ignore the idiot .....Agree with you on the tv situation here. people want to watch big name teams look at the teams that tour here celtic, manu ac milan chelsea. Glazer knows what will sell over here......is 2007 still the year, that change could take place. still see chance of european football league,thanks for the work you put in here.
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excellent article Paul - well done
I guess money does talk after all.
When you talk of this parachute payment, in the order of magnitude do you think this would be?
I can see all sorts of legal wrangles from this. Surely these would have an effect on the start date of the new proposed 'Super League'.
I also cannot see UEFA backing a competitive format that undermines the prestigious Champions League.
Would there be relegation/promotion from this league as teams may be inelegible if they do not meet the specific requirements, a la Falkirk some years ago.
Im very uneasy about the whole change, as im not the most fervent capitalist.
If its for the good of Celtic however, then im all for it , and i agree , we as a club do need to increase revenue streams.
Will Strachan be leading us into this next phase in the history of Celtic Football Club i wonder...
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Paul, sorry for so many questions:
1)reading between the lines, are you saying that Glazer already has in place agreements with your David Deins, Peter Kenyons and Dermot Desmonds? If so, is it not illegal to withold this information from the stock exchange (i know nothing about finances-im only a daft student-but this fact was repeated often before WGS arrival as manager)?
2)Isn't there an argument for saying that Chelsea and Arsenal have more to gain by not backing Man U, so that when they go tits up (which as you've detailed clearly, would be a CERTAINTY), Chelsea and Arsenal (and maybe liverpool) can carve up the league rights as they wish, along with taking a huge proportion of the 'floating' man u fans?
3)what do you think is to be the structure of this 'superleague', will it involve promotion to and relegation from it via the leftovers of the SPL and EPL?
4)Also, why did Glazer aim exclusively for Man U, when he could have got a comparable worldwide brand and possibly acheived the same ends with Celtic or Arsenal - it was only 2 years ago chelsea needed a sugar daddy?
on a slightly different note, am i the only one that views, not just this proposed move, but the whole 'chase the big bucks, join the EPL' bandwagon as the very antithesis of our socialist, egalitarian principles? i always hoped we'd see a return to the '67 days of homegrown bhoys conquering europe and our charity based origins. i find it a little disturbing that our beloved hoops play in the relative squalor of glasgows eastend when a tiny fraction of the finances we are talking about could make massive differences to the social/economic status of a huge proportion of people.
or am i just being a hippy dreamer? if so i apologise.
Brummiebhoy
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"Im very uneasy about the whole change, as im not the most fervent capitalist" - thats what i meant to say, except mine came out a bit more hippy and ebarrassing...
Brummiebhoy
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Interesting story, but...
sources, please?
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Well, as we discussed weeks ago, the key will be the teams not wanting (can't afford to) be left out.
The '2nd tier' would never put themselves into a position that they were finacially vulnerable to being left out.
So many clubs in the EPL, for example, although are earning vast amounts (compared to SPL) from TV, they are spending it just as fast. Hence the reason relegation can spell disaster.
ITV Digital was a rude awakening for English football as a whole and any protection will be grabbed.
Well done Paul, along the lines that we have been discussing for a while.
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Paul,
Do you see the remaining teams in Scotland playing in their own league or do you see them being thrown into the mix with the other "Sneeches without stars upon thars" in England?
Hail Hail!
Honeybhoy
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We will have to wait and see.
Sounds good in an idillic world, but there are a lot of obstacles in between Glazier and his pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
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I've just forwarded this to all the bhoys on day shift. An enjoyable and informative email to read through before reading the usual work related load first thing.
Keep them coming Paul.
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Hello Paul, An NBA game is 48 minutes long and a live TV game takes two and a half hours. An NFL game is 60 minutes and takes an incredible 3 hours to watch on TV. Point being that Americans have to watch 2 minutes of commercials for every minute of action. American sports are chopped up, that's why soccer is of little interst to media giants like ABC, CBS, NBC. This means it would have to be pay-per-view. Ruport Murdoch is trying to drum up interest in the English League on Fox Sports with his Premiership pay channel - lukewarm interest is being kind. The US is totally saturated with sports,including college basketball and gridiron and I feel a revamped league with the biggest team in Britain, Celtic, would help any billionaire, it won't bring us the millions we are seeking. What Celtic need is Europe - to be playing in two leagues, a 10 team SPL with one home and a away, and the same in a European League - with play offs of course! Murdoch has an empire and it is far from falling, Glazer has a overdraft. Sincerely and best wishes.
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Paul, what about the impact on competing in Europe? As in, couldn't Celtic be forgoing there Champions League spot?
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A pedant speaks:
Just to pick you up on the historical point: QPFC dominated world football in the 19th Century with the 'Scotch Professor' passing and running game. This is the games the world plays and England claims it invented.
The Corinthians were founded by Pa Jackson for two reasons: i) to combat Scottish dominance of football by copying the passing and running game ii) to combat the rise of professionalism by creating a team which trained the elite of the amateur elite who could be put into the England team.
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Eugene - I think what Paul is saying is that, initially at least, the game will cover it's traditional base of Europe, with glamour close -season games going out to the US and Asia. When (if?) sufficient interest is obtained (2, 4, 8 years later?) these markets will then be exploited.
If anyone is in any doubt that FIFA won't be interested in this scenario, have a read of the book "How They Stole The Game" by David Yallop. FIFA (and UEFA) presidents slept a little uneasily the day that book was published.
Keep up the good work, Mr 67.
Georgiebhoy
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Great news When do we tell the SPL,We have to give 2 years notice to quit don't we.
We will need to upgrade the stadium a bit to get 5* status especially the disabled section.
Keep us posted Paul, I will have to start saving for the increase to 3 season books when this happens.
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Paul - I may have been a little sceptical in the past with your articles, but I have to say this is one very good read.
You have obviously researched this in depth and then with a few not-too-implausible assumptions, you have made decent stab at outlining the strategy of Celtic, but football as we know it.
Good effort.
I have only read it once - I intend to digest it during the day and may well have some questions.
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If only it was so easy. Note yesterday the timetable slipped back 'to 2008 at the latest'.
I'm afraid it's not going to happen in the same way that'big signings are unlikely this close season. Yes we will sign players but they will be of the Hartley, Riordan level rather than the marquee players we crave.
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Paul,
Why will there be nothing happening in public until 2006? Surely Celtic would have to give notice as another poster mentioned above, i think 2 years is needed?
How much of the story has been verified and how much is educated guesswork?
I sincerly hope that it is correct. It would be a great move for Celtic.
The David Dein comments on the previous post really do suggest that he is oblivious to these plans, although i agree with you about the urgency that Glazer has to show in order to reduce interest payments on his loan and also clear the debt as quickly as possible.
If it had to go through European courts to make it happen, any idea ow long that would take?
Tony, Latvia
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Millionaires like Dermot Desmond (bought London City Airport for 25mil now worth 250mil) don't invest in football clubs just for the craic. DD is here to make money from Celtic.
Glazer, Jordan, Magnier, McManus all know what they are doing!
These things will come to pass, it makes me laugh when the media say 'it will never happen'.
As for 'grandstand' signings - what exactly is that? Berkovic et al???? Look at Real Madrid? Barca's best buys last season were the squad players like belleti from villareal.
The future is bright!
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Bit unsure about this. As much as I'm desperate for us to be able to compete at the highest level I fear this type of development may cause me and many others to be priced out of watching live football. Let's face it 'they' aren't going to make season tickets any cheaper just because you're getting less games in a 30 game season. After all you're getting better quality...so stump up! I dread to think of the levels of debt people will get themselves into to continue to watch their team. But then you and I, the football fan, are inconsequential to these guys. Who cares if we can't afford to go and support the team, there'll be plenty of 'new' fans who can afford to watch.
I have no problem with change for the better, so long as it isn't JUST change for the better of profits and major shareholders.
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Great article Paul. I think it wuold be terrific for all celtic fans to see us being able to compete for the biggest and best in the world.
I do think that UEFA and FIFA will take more than a passing interest as will the G14(18/20).
I don't see why season books have to increase, as our revenue will go through the roof. I would be much better to increase the stadium and corporate facilities and keep the real fans onside.
I think there will be all sorts of political pressure put on from all sides.
I hope it comes to pass, sooner rather than later.
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This is the type of news I have been waiting to hear.
I bought £5000 worth of shares at 48p in the knowledge that at some stage Celtic would be involved in a massive restructuring of football - at which point their true worth would be realised.
Even if this rumour is a false dawn, at some stage Celtic will be where it belongs.
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This sounds promising Paul & thanks for taking the time - but i'm keen to hear your thoughts on one small factor - what the governing body of the game have to say about all this. I understand that changes in the game will happen, though i'm unclear as to how the big clubs can force the hand of FIFA/UEFA on this one regardless of how much money is involved.
Put it this way - I can say i'm going to build a swimming pool out my back garden, however if the Council don't give me permission then i'm stuck with the crazy paving & Swingball. I know this is a bizarre analogy, but you know what i mean - i hope?
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Interesting stuff-but why would Glazer limit himself to a British market?
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As suggested by DialupCelt, isn't it more likely that Glazer would be looking to instigate the formation of a true Super League, encompassing the best that Europe has to offer? Why would he want to see Man Utd play Tottenham or Everton when they couls be facing the likes of Real Madrid, AC Milan and Bayern Munich week in, week out?
While I'm always sceptical that such a rosy future is there for Celtic to enjoy, I agree that there will be some fundamental changes in the game, probably Europe wide. And the question of UEFA backing it may not be such a problem, as they have been hankering after a European Super League for years - hence the formation of the Champions League, as it is today. It wouldn't take a seismic shift to expand this further and take measures to protect the exclusivity of the G14 clubs.
I think that what we need to hope for is that UEFA recognises the potential of our club in this equation. The spectacle of Seville and their reaction to that (TGFIE), followed by FIFA's recognition (TGFITW), will have done our cause no harm in this respect.
Meanwhile, the top 16 seeded clubs in next season's Champions League are as follows:
Real Madrid, AC Milan, Barcelona, Manchester Utd., Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Porto, Juventus, PSV Eindhoven, Lyon, Panathinaikos, Chelsea, Celtic, Villarreal, Sporting Lisbon.
Of those, Panathinaikos, Villarreal and Sporting might have to make way for a second team from France (Monaco?) & Germany (Schalke?), and possibly one from Belgium (Anderlecht?). And where would Liverpool fit in? I can't see that England could warrant four teams with Spain only having two... Furthermore, I don't see a country of the size of Scotland getting two entrants, so we'd better make damn sure we win the SPL every year until it happens (if it ever does)!
But at the moment this is all still a pipe dream, and until it becomes anything else we need to be totally focussed on achieving and maintaining total dominance in Scotland and making some sort of impression in Europe. This is the only way to guarantee that we will be in the frame, if and when there is one to be in.
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The scentence that makes this for me is when you mention that Celtic will be taken along as part of the ride and not the driving force. To date us going to England has been driven (be it perceived or not) by the Old Firm ie We want in please Mr English FA - no go away Scottish trouble. Instead it will be please come Mr Celtic you are needed to improve the package. This will make the media / fan backlash far less troublesome.
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One other thing Paul that nobody else seems to have touched on - will the huns really need to be included? If this goes ahead and we're turned into one of the world's richest clubs "at the stroke of a pen" surely the same will happen to that other mob.
Anyone fancy seeing Ronaldinho or Zidane lining out for them? Me neither.
Also, as someone said earlier, surely Glazer is looking at an even bigger picture and hoping to include the Barcas, Reals, Milans etc into a European super league. Why all the focus on Britain? Surely Glazer's out to conquer the world, starting with Europe?
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McStay8, ur investments are ur own business but did u invest to make money or purely for the love of the club?
Just wondering how many Bhoys out there would be happy to sell shares when the time is right
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anonymous 9.28
We have global appeal - they most certainly do not!!!!
They will of course get bigger but it will be very much in our shadow as we have the infrastructure - they do not.
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Very thought provoking Paul. Thanks for the research work. It makes a big difference getting the information this way than via the scottish dailies. What is undoubtable is that Football is loved in so many parts of the world, no religion or culture has considered banning it.It looks like football will become the new Hollywood. Instead of the set of Cleopatra the punters in Cairo will be taken to the Theatre of Dreams. It will be in places like China where it will really take off. Football became a passion in places where people needed something to excite them after a shift down a mine or in an assembly plant. In the tea shops and hotels of Shanghai instead of Rita Hayworth they will be craning their necks for a glimpse of....Aiden McGeady. We may well be bit players to start off with but inevitably we will get a starring role. All we need are the right people negotiating at the Celtic End
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Long term blog reader, first time poster.
Really enjoy the blogs, Paul. I think this site is increasingly addictive for a lot of fans because deep-down we are all desperate for some major changes in our football environment. In other words, maybe too many of us just want to believe that the changes you've mentioned are really going to happen!
Although, going by the financial info you've mentioned, there will have to be massive changes down South or the most famous club in world football will be going down the pan.
You said that nothing will be announced until next year, but surely by your own figures, Glazer has to challenge the existing TV deal before next season begins?
Keep up the good work.
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What a load of bull. Sounds good in theory but will never happen.
ps think Rangers should be mentioned in the same bracket as Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle United and Celtic. Not down there with
Everton, Tottenham, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Middlesbrough. They are, after all Scottish champions and every bit as big as your top sides.
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Some of you guys may not have seen the previous bloggs in Jan / feb on the Europe V UK issue and also some examples of the other areas where cross border leagues are shaping up so I expect Paul will be able to give a quick link or ref to them maybe?
Basically, there is a tested format in the uk and the CL works for UEFA and europe too (and they would fight tooth and nail to keep it). If you put the uefa in the corner they will go for the jugular, scuppering everything. There needs to be a plan that works (and is tested) straight away, Glazer can't afford any plan rewrites.
Time is of the essence.
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Anon 9.30
I of course would be willing to sell some of my shares if the price was right. But I would always want to hold shares in my our beloved club.
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Well done Paul! Your article shows the clear motive that the rest of the sports and business press has missed.
The key for me is that no-one lends on a whim, even the high risk hedge funds. Therefore it is safe to assume that this is virtually ‘in the bag’ with all of the tier 1 clubs tied in a pre-contract agreement and most of the tier 2 clubs well on the way. In fact that must of happened before the beginning of May.
The MG payback does require a paradigm shift in the industry and now is the time. For any doubters, please refer to business cases like Richard Branson. For those of us old enough to remember, he managed to change the rules first in the music industry then the airline industry. The main aspect in both cases was that the barriers to entry were enormous, but once breached seemed blinding obvious. The similarities are startling.
A note of caution before we get too carried away: Celtic must be a prime mover in all of this to maximise our opportunity.
On a parochial note, I love the notion that we will be considered tier 1 and RFC tier 2.
HT
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JBII - I would question your assumption about our infrastructure.
I have watched Celtic matches in various global locations (France, Germany, USA, Australia to name a few) and we do not have an infrastructure. We have loyal fans the world over, fans who would go to extreme lengths to see the matches, we have a number of independant clubs/fan groups - but whatever organisation exists is ad-hoc and organised at a local level.
The annual meet in Las Vegas this year will probably be bigger again than last year. There is huge potential out there, but unfortunately, Celtic has done very little - so far - to maximise this.
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Why are we sitting here letting these people (Glazer, et al) take over football? When did shareholders become more important than fans? Yes, I know they can be one and the same.
Football is a sport, Tesco is a business.
Britain has changed irrevocably, and not for the better, since 1979. The NEED to make money has overcome all other needs.
The only NEED I have from Celtic is the NEED to go out and win the league and then go into Europe. My reward for this is European nights against the best from other countries.
Why shouldn’t Bolton Wanderers be allowed a chance against the big teams?
Why is a football player allowed to earn £50k A WEEK, why even £20K?
These moves are not about football they are purely about greed.
Apologies for the rant. I do enjoy the site and I’m not usually a mad old romantic.
I will try to post a reasoned opinion later.
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I meant the club's infrastructure (i.e financial stability in its own right not topped up by holding companies or generous owners!!!!) is in place.
We have global appeal (as witnessed in Vegas and the Champion World matches) that Rangers simply do not have.
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Anon 9:38
"What a load of bull. Sounds good in theory but will never happen"
Thanks for that insightful analysis. I'll mull it over for a 1/4 second or so.
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Timmy7
Football became a business the day players and agents started believing that they should be paid more for a week than I make in a year.
bryanboru
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What a lot of claptrap you people make me sick. You poncey white collar workers with no life slevering over silky football games and the demise of smaller clubs.
Celtic are a scottish club and should therefore remain within the scottish set up. Celtic already pit themselves against the best in the world and do not do to well at it. Football is a working class sport it is not for the likes of you to get away from your wifes and horrible children for a few hours, its for the lads from parkhead shettleston calton etc etc. You people make me sick with your hospitality and standing around spouting crap to each other with a mineral water and volovont in you hands spew. As Roy keane said you the prawn sandwich brigade are spoiling the game, sod of .
Just take a look at the west ham fans at cardiff. True working class people who know how to enjoy themselves. You lot should just go watch tennis or some other poncey sport.
GRRRRRR.
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Did you mean Vol au vents?
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Anon 10:06
Mate, go back to the canteen. You've got a chip on your shoulder...
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In the meantime Paul we also need to be maintaining our new found level as a UEFA "Pot 2" team. However, this is where the success of reaching Seville may come to haunt us.
Our coefficients for the last six seasons are (oldest first): 5.691, 4.856, 11.186, 23.433, 15.433 and 8.567, giving a total UEFA coefficient of 63.477 (they use the last five seasons only).
Next season's coefficient has improved slightly despite our relatively poor performance in the CL and failure to qualify for the UEFA Cup. However, this is only because the sixth last season was even poorer!
But in three years the Seville season will drop out of the reckoning, and our coefficient may drop significantly as a result.
In order to maintain our coefficient at it's current level to (hopefully) maintain that Pot 2 spot, we will have to emulate our 2003-4 performance (3rd in CL group and then QF of UEFA Cup) in each of the next three seasons.
That is the minimum requirement we have now set ourselves if we wish to dine at the (almost) top table. With success comes greater expectation...
Can we do it?
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Don't know about anyone else but I haven't been this excited about a summer since MON first arrived.
No matter what anyone thinks changes are in the air at the top level in England and we may be a part of this in ther medium term.
We have a new manager who is saying the right things and seems to have his own ideas on players.The fact that we are being linked with Riordon is positive as he is not a 30 something has been.
Momo will not be the last underperformer to leave.
Things are looking good so be prepared for Murray to come out with some nonesense about how Rankers are going to dominate the world and most of the press to believe him.
A final point , Juve ,Real and Barca are playing a dangerous game by not bidding early for Lovenkrands as we have found out in the past you can't delay when the best are up for grabs.
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Vol-au-vent ---- smal- au vent--- canapes, smanapes, you get the drift of the post sod off and let the game be for the people it was intended to be.
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Anon 10.06 - the majority of Celtic fans on here are interested in their club, the same way that you are. Their interested in the possibilities that our club could be involved in because it's exciting times ahead - it's just healthy discussion between people from all different walks of life. I admire your romantic views on football being for the working classes & agree with you to a certain extent, but if you canny come on here & be constructive then you should go back to polishing your sovereign rings & watching folks motors at the game.
Rudi Vata's Lynx Africa
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Anon - 10-11 dont you mean the eaterie or the cafeteria or the dheli. Prefer the canteen myself.
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If they need to get to get to 14 out of 20 EPL clubs to agree and as you say they would all need to have “set entry requirements, such as club stadiums requiring Uefa Four Star status, though this is likely to move to Five Star status within a short period (50,000 seats, enormous media facilities and a large international airport nearby).” How will this work?
I looked at the capacities of EPL type clubs (see below) only 4 would have 50 k capacity now or in the near future. So the majority would have to be willing and able to commit to either moving to a new stadium or massively upgrade their own.
You mention Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle United, Everton, Tottenham, Manchester City, Aston Villa and Middlesbrough as possible clubs who would vote yes but who be the other 5 who would be able and willing to make up the numbers up to 14?
Premiership Capacity
Chelsea 42 k
Arsenal new stadium
Man Utd 67 k
Everton 40 k
Liverpool new stadium
Bolton 27 k
Middlesbrough 34 k
Man City 48 k
Tottenham 32 k
Aston Villa 43 k
Charlton 26 k
Birmingham 30 k
Fulham 22 k
Newcastle 52 k
Blackburn 31 k
Portsmouth 19 k
West Brom 28 k
Sunderland 49 k
West Ham 35 k
Wigan 25 k
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The key to all only this is the dismantaling of the current structures which lock revenue streams in place. To dismantle these structure you either need agreement or a judicial judgement. The first is a non starter (turkeys voting for Christmas, and all that) so the second route is more likely.
As has been commented elsewhere the current football Association structure is very likely contrary to european competion laws. It would only take one or two adverse judgement to bring the structure down.
UEFA is a powerful organisation but compared to the EU and European Court it is a minnow. Let us not forget Bosman.
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First time poster no.48,096 - yes, you've roused another long-time lurker to post Monsieur Soixante-Sept.
First thing, it's been clear for many years that change MUST happen in the structure of British and European football. The strain created by the ambitions and financial needs of the small number of superclubs that operate within the national league set-ups really can and will only be resolved by a new competition which satisfies these needs. It's clear that this must be supra-national as there is no other way that the required level of investment and financial return can be made to stack up on the balance sheet. It's not just the huge red figures Abramovich and Glazier have created at their clubs that are the issue, it's the debt levels of the major clubs in Italy and Germany (never mind Real Madrid's get-out-of-jail-free deal with their local council). Borussia Dortmund are just the latest to go down the Leeds United route, although the total debt they ran up isn't as big as some other clubs we could mention... As we all know, the Champions League was the compromise reached between UEFA and the big boys to create this supra-national environment, but this appears to have played out its role as a Trojan Horse for restructuring and the real deal is now about to come to pass.
Which is a long way of saying "it's going to happen, better get used to it (and make sure we don't miss the boat)".
Paul's twist here is that the proposal is for a British super-league, not a European one. As an ordinary Celtic supporter whose face is pressed up against the glass looking in I don't have Paul's insider information, but, like a few posters before me have already said, I find difficulty in understanding why it should just be a British solution. The same issues of dealing with UEFA's stated position that the national league structures will remain the basis of the industry have to be faced whether it's England and Scotland or England, Scotland, Italy, France etc etc. Also, whatever we say about global appeal or otherwise, Celtic and Rangers are only two big fish in a very small pool and don't bring a great market for TV or sponsorship when compared to continental teams. Just look at the break-down of the prize money for the CL for the financial proof of that. So unless it's something to do with the date of renewing TV agreements across Europe pointing this towards an EPL-style solution, I still think the European Super League must be the way forward.
Personally I've thought for a while that the answer/compromise will be a two-tier structure whereby teams will compete in the Super League in parallel with their national leagues, though how you resolve the need for promotion and relegation is another issue......
Yours In Celtic,
The Wee Free Tim
P.S. Great site Paul!
P.P.S. Best wishes and prayers for Geraldine and Martin
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Guys 10.06 Anon has his view - we are all entitled to one.
10.06 We have a choice to make, dine at the top table or fall into the back waters like Queens Park and 3rd Lanark. Where would you rather see Celtic in 20 yrs?
Personally I agree, I'd love to see Celtic compete in a top Scottish League that could also challenge for European Cups but it won't happen. We need to embrace change and get involved in it.
Do you want your kids to support Celtic or do you want them to be another "remeber when" story?
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Paul, the scenario your are predicting is much the same as my own thoughts on the matter.
The big factor that would allow Celtic, and unfortunatly, Rangers, into the proposed new set-up, is the fact that we both have a large stadiums and are able to fill it exclusively with our own fans, if we have decent opponants.
How many teams in Britain, or indeed Europe, can make this claim?
The next biggest factor is of course, a world-wide fan base. I think that the 'Seville factor' proved that Celtic fans would go to enormous lengths and in large numbers, to support their team, and, crucially, do it without any policing problems.
I think the the big problem with Rangers lies with their support. It was noted across the world, the Ranger's fans bigotted response towards the death of JP11, and that cannot have done their universal appeal any good.
Murray has tried to distance the club from bigots, but his attempt was decidely facile and the fan's response less than lukewarm. The 'Eggs Benidict' story was a nail in that coffin.
Besides, they have sold half of their media rights and subsequently could only expect to raise half the revenue available to Celtic. I think that these two factors could actually exclude Rangers from a place at the 'top table'
While I agree with the thrust of your scenario for the breakaway 'big league' the reformation of the other leagues is less clear.
The excluded clubs will band together and form their own little leagues as happened with the rugby game.
I think that Rangers are more likely to be in this second grouping at least until they can rid themselves of the sectarian baggage of their fans. But without their sectarian fans, do they really have any great support to call upon?
Great posting Paul. There's lots of wheeling and dealing to be done, and dare I say, exciting times ahead.
Greenmantle
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"GRRRRRR" - sounds surprisingly like the noise a constipated bear might make. Could you not find a wed-site for your own kind to spout on.
Good point about the Volvic & Vol-au-Vents. Mmmm.
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Anon 10:06
That'll be Roy Keane the multi-millionaire who earns twice the national average annual salary in a week.
I didn't know he felt so strongly about where his wages came from. If he does he might want to take a cut like Tommy Sheriden and donate the rest to charity. If not, I am not interested in his opinions.
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Shammy said..
Paul, all sounds great if we are invited?
When you say "It is important for Celtic to be part of this and not be left outside." Does this mean there is a chance that we are not invited?
Also, this would explain why the players we are currently being linked with are from the SPL. Cheap and low wages. I feel that the boards current ambition is just to win the SPL until they know they are definetly invited to the 'Ball'. Only then will they open the purse strings.
'Neg Anon' has been predicting this all year. The man's a legend!
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We in the lower reach look on this with caution and optimism.
Sure, the inncentives are there, but is this the monster you want to create?
If I could go back 50 years in footballing time - I might.
150000 at Hampden, 100000 at Old Firm Games, 50,000 at the "smaller" club matches - plus free entry at Half Time, Raymond Glendinning, Puskas at Wembley and cloth caps. That's football.
I've been to sporting events in North America, and hate the crass commercialism. There is nothing to compare with the chill of an October night in the drizzle as two clubs and their fans passionately vie for the bragging rights in Arbroath, Peterhead, Dundee, Edinburgh or Glasgow.
Let's not sell our souls down the river here.
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"There is nothing to compare with the chill of an October night in the drizzle as two clubs and their fans passionately vie for the bragging rights in Arbroath, Peterhead, Dundee, Edinburgh or Glasgow."
You can keep that, I what something better. I what to see quality football in a quality ground and a quality team representing Celtic football club.
White Collar, Middeclass and proud of it.
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"White Collar, Middeclass and proud of it."
'Middeclass' = slighlty better than Middleclass....obviously.
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Great News there Paul, really liking the Site and the "Big News" was definately worth the wait, it wouldnt be right to have published it last week because as GS said...."it was Martin's time"
Season Ticketsare upped in price every year and i think if we were to move to a different league they would definately go up in price, no doubt about it.
One more thing, i have been buying my cousins season book off him for the past 4 seasons, but now he has stopped playing amatuer football on saturdays he is wanting it back for next season, so how do i go about getting on the waiting list for my own? i would be much obliged if anyone could help, cheers!
Peter
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The reason why this is focused on a a British rather than a pan European league is that there is no market for this in countries like Italy.
Witness crowds of 10,000 (I think) at a Juventus CL game. Italian teams like to play each other and has historically always been that way.
Another point to consider is that SKY may be at the zenith of their power. The next wave of broadcast technology is more suited to the traditional markets of cable TV and bizarrely enough phone companies (3G technology). I believe satellite signals can't cope as well with the amount of data that travels through the process from sender to receiver.
HDTV signals, super broadband access etc ,video playback access anywhere in the world - it is the way forward, companies such as NTL/Telewest (about to merge I believe) and O2, Orange and Vodafone (now that is interesting from a Man Utd point of view) may become allies to Glazer in his revolution.
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As I am not an owner of the means of production nor live off my inherited land, nor off interest in shares I would consider myself working class.
Also if any one wants to know the origins of football please read `The People's Game: History of Football Revisited’ by James Walvin where you my find out things esp. in chapter 2 which may change your outlook.
Also one last plea for the end of generalised `you people’ statements as they totally make unknown assumptions, and as we all know if you ass/u/me you make an ass out of u and me.
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"As I am not an owner of the means of production nor live off my inherited land, nor off interest in shares I would consider myself working class."
Oh well done you've read Marx.
However, most commentators are agreed that Marxism is no longer relevant. Nowadays class is a state of mind. You be working class if you want, and I'll drive around in my 4x4 and be MiddleClass, but I'm still be a Celtic supporter faithfull through and through.
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Martybhoy,
10.06 is , of course, entitled to his opinion and I don't think any posters on here need to be lectured on that point. However, when he uses statements like...
" You poncey white collar workers with no life slevering over silky football games and the demise of smaller clubs."
...then he deserves what he gets. An opinion is one thing, to be judgemental and vindictive to that degree, IMO, goes beyond the pale.
If reading the pos |
