 Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Why 3 in a row will be a tall order for Celtic
Since football resumed after World War II, ‘two in a row’ league wins have been achieved 13 times in Scotland, however, on the previous 12 occasions the champions have only managed to make it three in a row twice.
Astonishingly, two in a row champions only retain their title 16.7% of the time. This is considerably below the overall champions’ success rate of 45.9%, and is even below the second place teams’ rate of winning the following season’s league of 34.4%.
Why are you more than twice as likely to win the league if you finish runner up the previous season, than if you have just secured two in a row?
Failure unquestionably brings a motivation to change and improve that success does not. Having won and retained the league, a club has every right to feel pleased with itself; notions of breaking up the team, taking what may seem unnecessary risks by bringing in new players, are unlikely to find as warm a reception than at a club who have just failed.
It also appears to be evident that most winning teams only last two years before succumbing to age (Celtic 2005), hungrier opponents (Rangers 2001) or finding that they have been rumbled tactically (Celtic 2003).
I am sure some of the above will sound familiar. Two in a row has been achieved; however, it is clear to all that this winning Celtic team will not retain their title in their current condition.
It is worth considering the options available to our opponents. Rangers are about to celebrate a decade of mis-management, when they have either over-spent with chronic consequences, or have lived in the shadow of Celtic. They have few options open to them, but, one or two things are in their favour.
Their new regime is already in place and there does not appear to be significant difference in the calibre of their squad in comparison to the champions they hope to catch. Compared to Celtic, they have a long-term structural income disadvantage; however, their debt position is relatively low. They could, and I am sure will, go heavily into debt this summer in an attempt to recover the league.
Rangers built their 'nine in a row' by buying talent in an inflating market. Their period of domination crumbled when the transfer bubble burst, leaving them with overpaid flops they could not move on. We have noted several times here that the transfer market is inflating once more, Rangers chairman, David Murray, will have noticed the same and I have no doubt will deploy the same strategy that worked for him in the 1990s.
Celtic will be able to match them in the transfer market without compromising the financial objectives of the club, but while our long term financial advantage will hold (as will our period of domination), next seasons' league will be a close call.
Our chances of being champions in 2008 are well above 16.7%, but Rangers’ are above 34.4%.
It should also be noted that three in a row devastates the opposition; it has a 100% post war success rate.Labels: Finance
294 Comments:
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More reason to give Gordon Strachan our full support.
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Excellent quote Paul
"Rangers are about to celebrate a decade of mis-management"
Lubo.
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interesting article, would be interested to know what u thought was necessary to buck the trend paul67?
match or beat rangers spending knowing that failure for them puts them back even further
when we look at the first 11's there is not an awful lot in it, tho on paper there should be.
they have a prolific spl scorer, we don't tho i hope jan will be. could scott mcdonald be our kris boyd? who knows he is only 5 behind boyd and in theory at a better team should be able to increase his tally. for this reason i am warming a bit to mcdonald signing. our defence i feel is stronger than rangers so itsa the midfield where the title could be won and lost next year i feel
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I agree 32% and disagree 12%.
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We thought it would be tight this year, but it wasn't, at least not until it didn't matter any more.
So we keep strengthening, stay hungry and watchful. We go into next season without any complacency.
Maybe, if you're the type that finds blessings in all brouhahas, you could argue that our poor finish to the league season will yield benefits when it really matters again.
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So there is no 'GoD' ?
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"....or finding that they have been rumbled tactically..."
We certainly have been and will be in 2008 if GS doesn't start showing more intelligence and variation with his line-ups and tactics.
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antsman
Agree with you 100% on the midfield.
Get that right and we are on to 3 in a row.
Am I right in thinking that only the Champions qualify for the Champions League next year?
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Surely during 9 in a row, 3 in a row was achieved 7 times? (in years 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9).....
And despite Rangers decade of mismanagement, we only won the league 60% of the time...
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no rangers also qualify for the champions league in the 2nd qualifying stage, so its vital we get in and hopefully rangers wont as i suspect that increasing budgets could depend on this.
i think there is a point about being rumbled tactically aiden is being a bit and also playing a defensive central midfield is not helping so many times i have seen hartley BEHIND lennon
the problem is they type of player we would love, quick,dynamic,creator and goal threat is out our league possibly.
i think we should look into dutch market again similar standard and resonably priced. Alves of Heerenveen has 34 goals for example
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What about Rangers celebrating the 10 anniversary on their 9 in a row.
I've seen some rubbish so-called celebrations but this is one of the worst.
What next?
The 25th anniversary of beating Motherwell 4 times in a season?
We can expect a fun packed publicity summer from your family friendly Rangers.
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I have to say that this is the least bothered I have ever been with regards to Celtic losing and not turning up against Rangers. Nobody had a good game (IMHO) not even Naylor or Lennon. I do believe that we are already in summer hibernation mode since the St. Johnstone game and that all impeteus for the season has dissipated since the Milan game.
I dont buy that the situation is so bad. We will be playing better football and be a better team next year as long as we dont go selling too many of our players.
While players such as Hartley, TG, JJ, JVOH will accept that they are not playing as well as they could I dont believe that these players are finished and an over reaction is not called for especially as they are all relatively new and have never had a good run in the team.
Losing Balde, Wilson, Caldwell, Sno, Zurawaski and Beattie to long term injury hasn´t helped.
The only players that I have lost faith with and believe are simply not good enough and are not going to be good enough for Celtic is Kenny Miller and Craig Beattie. I still stand by my assertion that Naka and Mc Geady in the same team is too much of a luxury especially when playing with such a cautious holding midfielder as Lennon. When Hartley is sent out with the instructions to help Lenny out then we all have to accept that we are idling. A situtation that is acceptable as we are Champions in the SC final and had a good showing in Europe. JVOH has yet to find a partner and if I was Beattie, Miller and even to an extent Zurawski I´d be a little concerned. They surely can´t have failed to notice how poor they have been in the scoring ranks this season.
With Lenny, Thompson about to depart the wage bill. Telfer already off it and with the end of season cull coupled with WGS recent utterances then we can expect some additional quality to come through the gates.
If we can get three new quality players.
1) A predator on the box to help JVOH (A young ANdy Cole type)
2) A ball playing centre back
3) A ball winning midfielder
4) Dont sell anyone that should be kept. (i.e Naka, JVOH, Boruc)
Then I dont think we will be too far away from going further in the CL. If we want to progress this has to be the goal. For this to happen then a clearout is not what we need especially if it means losing players who can´t keep down a first team place; Quality players like JJ, TG, Balde, Zurawski, Riordhan then we will be struggling next year.
WGS has to recongnise that the team needs balance and that their must be a reason for so many quality players not being able to hold down a first team place.
I am looking forward to next season already. I dont buy the Walter Smith factor. I dont buy the lead articles assertion that Rangers will go into debt to try and readdress the balance. I do buy that Watty will get better refereeing decisions. I do buy that the laptop loyal will start with the 3m pound for a journeyman striker, or that BBJ will be coming back stories etc.
What I am buying is that we start next season as champions with a sqaud well versed in the exertions that is needed to do well in the CL and that Rangers will be closer, could tehy be any further away ?
I do reckon though that we will kick on as far as attractive performances are concerned and that 3 in a row is a CERTAINTY
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Interesting article. And one that highlights, for me, a few reasons to be positive - the problems are glaringly obvious to all and hopefully as many as possible will be moved along as quickly as possible.
No World Cup or Euro Championships. Proper rest for all out guys. Remember someone on here posted stats on JVOH that in light of a well rested close season should bode well for us.
A M'well supporter I know is sick about our acquisition of SMcD - he dreads to think what he'll be capable of at a 'Big' team. I do expect him to barge his way into the team and stay there. Same applies to Naka if he stays.
I also expect Paul Hartley to get over pulling on the hoops and start to put in some solid performances - as long as GS gets him going forward instead sitting back.
Get Lee Naylor to watch videos of his first 3 quarters of the season.
I think it will go close next season. But I doubt the team that is getting 'rumbled' just now will be as recognisable - especially in midfield (That's me transferring my hopes there - I hope I hope I hope)
Referees and hammer throwers I expect will have their say. And football will suffer but hopefully we'll have enough inthe tank to claim 3 in a row.
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Alves has the type of scoring record we will need next year. However, chelsea are apparently interested and the Heerenveen chairman says he wants a million dollars for every goal he scored. Thats about 17m quid. We don't have the best of records with Brazilians either! I do think we could do with somebody who is almost the opposite of miller, ie doesn't necessarily run about, just scores a goal a game. That said the service from the middle of the park has to improve.
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must admit i find it hard to fathom the difference in reception for mcdonald and miller.
miller failed at rangers and failed so spectacularly in the then nationwide that he was deployed as a right winger as he couldnt cut the mustard at centre forward. his goal scring in the lower leagues was poor and in the premiership abysmal (pens aside).
He is heralded as a great signing and given more opportunities than he deserved. Why? I would argue that TGFITW didnt want to slag him for want of being accused of bigotry. I dont mind the fact he played for rangers, what i do mind is the fact he wasnt and still isnt good enough for us.
Yet mcdonald, as pointed out 5 goals less than boyd in a team with the shadow of relegation over it who continually shows form against us and he isnt given the same status as miller.
one a self confessed celtic fan and the other ??
Seems even playing for celtic these days you are questioned more if you come from a celtic background but given more priase if you dont, a little insecure i think, have the courage of your convictions, if you believe miller isnt good enough say it rather than not want to look bigoted, bigotry has nothing to do with it, look at the best celtic players over the decades, helluva lot not "celtic minded" but not loved any less, this makes a fallacy of any sentiments that celtic fans wont accept you if your not celtic minded.
WGs past has nothing to do with whether he is accepted as celtic manager, results and performances do that, and up to january he was accepted, the fact the tide is turning is nothing to do with religion, team he supports, colour of hair, manner in press conferences, it is to do with results and performace, bottom line!
he has survived some horrendous results (brattislava and clyde) he will not deserve to survive dunfermline should he give us another shocker!
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Dunfydave (12:30) said: "And despite Rangers decade of mismanagement, we only won the league 60% of the time..."
Indeed, Rangers have won 4 of the last 10 SPL titles in spite of the bad management. Had they been well managed we could now be watching them celebrating nineTEEN in a row!
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The three-in-a-row jinx also holds good/bad for us in the Scottish Cup.
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Cheers Lubo, I believe they are having a charity game to mark the period.
Antsman, no easy answers to this one.
3inarow, “TGFITW didn’t want to slag him [Miller] for want of being accused of bigotry”. Eh?
I don’t know any Celtic fans who are “insecure” about expressing their views on a player or manager because of his religion, in fact I don’t know of another Celtic fan who considers religion has an influence on how the Celtic support act.
I know at least one who would want to sack a manager even if he won two in a row. Hmm.
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Very interesting stats Paul. Although there is the bit about lies and damned lies but I think we have many advantages.
I still believe we have a better quality of player than Rangers.
To an extent they have already laid their cards on the table having had to recruit The Tank Top half way through this season. We know exactly what we are going to face.
We have more funds to spend and should have identified where we need stranghtened.
My main concern is that we are likely to see a high turnover of staff again.
We need competition at full back. We can't go into a league winnig game with four centre backs. And I am worried about the second season bounce from Naylor.
We need to have both a settled an flexible midfield. You commented about being caught out tactically in 2003, there is a risk that the 2 wide, non wingers cutting in will be found out.
Lastly we need quality next to JVoH and back up for him as well.
Oh and by the way, while we were "experimenting" on Saturday because they won nobody has questioned Watties tactics of play 4-5-1 at home in an end of season relatively meaningless game. Could you imagine Brady, Burns, McNeil etc getting away with that?
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Very interesting stats Paul. Although there is the bit about lies and damned lies but I think we have many advantages.
I still believe we have a better quality of player than Rangers.
To an extent they have already laid their cards on the table having had to recruit The Tank Top half way through this season. We know exactly what we are going to face.
We have more funds to spend and should have identified where we need stranghtened.
My main concern is that we are likely to see a high turnover of staff again.
We need competition at full back. We can't go into a league winnig game with four centre backs. And I am worried about the second season bounce from Naylor.
We need to have both a settled an flexible midfield. You commented about being caught out tactically in 2003, there is a risk that the 2 wide, non wingers cutting in will be found out.
Lastly we need quality next to JVoH and back up for him as well.
Oh and by the way, while we were "experimenting" on Saturday because they won nobody has questioned Watties tactics of play 4-5-1 at home in an end of season relatively meaningless game. Could you imagine Brady, Burns, McNeil etc getting away with that?
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I suspect that Celtic have a bigger task between now and next season than most of the Faithful seem to accept.
The SPL form guide since the evening of 3rd March has Celtic in NINTH place with just 7 points from 7 games. Bottom club Dunfermline have earned 16 points from their 7 games in this period, and Rangers have earned 20 points from 8 games.
Only ICT, Hibs and Motherwell have fared worse than Celtic.
With their respective recent SPL records Celtic (W2 D1 L4) will have their work cut out in the Cup Final to overcome a Dunfermline (W5 D1 L1) side who are in top form in spite of their precarious position.
Much will depend upon how Celtic's misfiring strikers manage against a defence which last night came within three minutes of it's sixth consecutive clean sheet, with the SPL's basement club managing an astonishing 565 minutes without conceding a goal.
The last three goals that Dunfermline have conceded have all been scored by Scott McDonald, and only one player (ICT's Paatelainen) not contracted to Celtic for next season has scored against the Pars since the middle of February.
What are the bookies' odds on a 1-0 Cup Final win for Dunfermline?
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Paul,
Even in football stats are entirely misleading. I accept that some of the factors you describe might account for some of the failures to win three in a row, but my statistician friend would tell you that there are nowhere near enough samples to draw any definitive conclusion from the historical data.
I would prefer to look at this period as a unique opportunity to disappear out of sight of Rangers. There is no question that we must have significant sums of money to spend and I expect we are also likely to see significant sums come in. If Gravesen, Boruc, Miller and Beattie were to go for around £10m(conservatively) in total then I would be disappointed not to see us spend £16m plus. Of those the only miss-and it would be a big miss-would be Boruc.Financially we would still be very sound and if Rangers are going to try and spend a similar sum to compete they are on another slippery slope. I don't see them going mad myself but you never know I suppose.
£16m + to spend ought allow us to buy the sort of quality to stay well ahead and safely see us to three in a row.
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Further to my last contribution to the forum, and bearing in mind others' comments on our various underperforming "big stars", I think one of the most important signings the club can make (ASAP!) is a top sports psychologist. And if we already have such an employee then they are underperforming as much as the players!
We need to get somebody in who can identify why these guys are having to admit to themselves that they have not played to their full capabilities, in order that the coaching team can work with those players to remedy the situation.
We have the personnel. They have the experience and the reputations. NOW is the time for these guys to start repaying the supporters for their backing & loyalty and the club for the huge pay-packets.
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The 2003 league result was as much to do with our run to the UEFA Cup Final and Rangers having virtually no European football to contend with. I'll also ignore the extraordinary number of penalties they were awarded that year in the league.
The last time we were prevented from completing three in a row before this was because we were up against two very good sides in Aberdeen and Dundee Utd. Next season we are very unlikely to be up against any teams of such a high standard so unless we have a lot more European games than Rangers or they have another penalty filled season like 2002-03 I'll be very disappointed if we dont make it three in a row.
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Mullenta, selling Boruc would potentially cost us around 10-15 points a season! How many games have we won this season by a single goal after one or more fantastic saves by Artur? And we'd have finished bottom of our CL group to boot!
If a top player really had to go, I'd lose Naka before Boruc.
But in an ideal world we have to keep all of our top quality players, and persuade some more to come to the third rate SPL.
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not advocating sacking the man just think he would would find it difficult to survive strike 3.
Fully accept your views paul, we all know we've had it worse, the football on show is abysmal the now and there have been ZERO signs of improvement or even an acknowledgement of where the problems arise and remedies to rectify this, 1 up simply doesnt work yet he "experiments" again with this at ibrox.
I think some on this blog are too quick to describe people as mineshafters and are ignorant to the groundswell of unease and dejection many celtic fans feel just now.
Poor performances we can accept but malaise set in months ago and nothing has changed, if anything we have gotten worse, surely that is cause for concern.
Look how many no longer feel their season ticket is value for money, look how many had better things to do on saturday as they expected not only the result but more worryingly the spineless, rudderless performance.
Yes am happy at winning the league, delighted, but i thought this blog was a strong advocate of keeping challenging yourself, constantly improving, not sitting still. Surely there are alarm bells rigning in celtic supporters worldwide as we question what happened to stronger, quicker, faster, fitter and this fast flowing football?
When you are at the end of your second year as manager and still dont know your preferred system let alone best starting 11, surely celtic fans can question without being subject to sarcastic rebuttle? I had hoped to be able to make comments and get in debate without resorting to arrogance, name calling and pointscoring, thought this was the blog for reasoned debate where everyone can reasonably debate differing opinions without resorting to unneceassry baiting.
I am more than willing to accept that my opinions and thoughts are not correct, afterall they are only what i think and I am more than happy in the knowledge that i do not know everything and that i could in fact be wildly off the mark.
In fact this season alone I have changed my mind about this team and the manager i think about 15 times now, at the moment i am a little despondent but im sure a successful 26th may followed by a successful summer transfer activity will have me wondering what the concern the now was for, however surely i can worry just now without scorn?
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Martinobhoy,
you shouldn´t forget that in 2003 after the last Celtic Rangers game BBC Scotland announced that it would be showing live all Rangers games until the end of the season except on the last day of the season where both Celtic and Rangers games would be broadcast simulatenously if it was still neck and neck. This gave Rowbottam and his likes the advantage of knowing what was necessary to keep rangers in the chase (i.e the 3 pens in one half at Dundee etc.)
The SFA also scheduled for us to play Motherwell in a game that was postponed from February 3 days after the OF game. They also cancelled a statement on whether Motherwell would be relegated that season until after they had met with Celtic !!
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Looks like we are signing young striker Mark McAllister from Dungannon.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sport/football/local/article2522256.ece
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awe_naw
And let's not forget the scheduling of the last game at Ibrox. We had barely time to get through passport control on our way back from Portugal before we were kicking off at Ibrox.
Yes we won 2-1 but we definitely tired late on which allowed them to get a goal back. A goal which proved crucial when totting up the goal difference at the end of the season.
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3inarow, I am not aware that someone responded to you here by indulging in name calling, unnecessary baiting and scorn. I am glad you have persisted despite it.
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Can someone please explain to me where the notion that if we sell either or both, Boruc and Naka we will somehow be in a better position for next season? Financially yes but definitely not on the pitch.
Most fans recognise that Rangers will present far more of a challenge next season and coupled with our recent dire form, next season is looking difficult enough without selling the best goalkeeper we’ve had in years, Boruc and also Nakamura.
How exactly is that going to make us a better team?
Selling Petrov for circa £8M and signing Jarosik, Hartley and Gravesen has in no way whatsoever made us a better team. Where does the confidence that selling Boruc and Naka will enable us to buy five or six quality players actually come from? Where is the evidence that this would happen?
We should build around our quality and successful players. What we need is stability with the deadwood sold or moved on and only quality added.
The selling of Boruc and Naka would pretty much put us back to square one and we’d require far more surgery than at present.
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Walter Smith and Ally McCoist have done a tremendous job with a below average bunch of players ( exceptions BF and CB ). However, the time to be concerned about the SPL title will be August this year, when we will know how hte two teams line up.
The biggest danger to Celtic, are the Celtic supporters who continually undermine our manager. He is not perfect, not by a long shot, but we should be happy with our season in the sense that it has been successful.
Let's judge Gordon next season with team 3. He is entitled to the chance to be the most successful manger we have had since Big Jock.
Assuming we get the players we need, and move off some of the under achievers, I trust Gordon will get it right in the transfer market.
I have my suspicions about what his thinkings are. I hope he trusts his instincts as opposed to those of our Global Scouts.
I repeat....the SPL is very very poor. It can make a bad team look good, and good players look world beaters. Celtic achieved in the Champions League....the only league that matters. Gordon will lead us there next season for a repeat performance.
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Paul
After reading your article, I retain the following:
Celtic chances of being champions in 2008 are MINIMUM 16.7%, but Rangers’ are MINIMUM 34.4%.
It is generally accepted that the SPL is a two-horse race.
I conclude:
Celtic chances of being champions in 2008 are 65%, and Rangers’ are 35%.
Stats'R'Us CSC
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The biggest danger to Celtic, are the Celtic supporters who continually undermine our manager.???????????????
i would have thought our manager would be less concerned with our support and more concerned how the poorest rangers team in 20 years has managed to beat us home and away, and also how our team has failed to deliver for 3 months now.
Lets hope WGS is fully aware of his priorities and sorts out these dangers before focusing on any perceived danger within the support.
its not the support who have let themselves down the last few months.
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Well said Ternar. Total agreement from me.
Bolton Bhoy
I'm working on an idea for you and will get back to you later.
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Paul
Ah hiv said it wance... ah hiv said it Thrice,
Pierre Lavalle,is thru wit' throwing, da Dice!
Big money disnae guarantee a Starrin' Player,
Ah prefer a story that's straight oot o' Metro Goldwyn Mayer!
It's always about an unknown chap, who comes frae da backwoods,..a dot oan da map!
But wan t'ing dis chappie kin dae fur sure,
He plays a brand of soccer that is pristine pure.
He knows how tae take his chance an' score a goal,
an' he never fa's doon....jist like a Ganglin' Foal!
The Motto that's pinned noo tae da Parkheid wall......is......
"Catch 'em young and get 'em cheap..
if dey dinna woik oot....
Den we'll lose NAE SLEEP
Save oor Farthin's fur a BIG BIG PLAYER .... but, fur da maist part.........
USE DA SCRIPT o' GOLDWYN MAYER!"
collie.
Tail's Awaggin',Awaggin'
An' by da way, aboot those Statistics?
Numbers ur fur Wide eyed Mystics!
Ah'm no blamin' you, Ah'll mak dat clear....
Fur da Future's aye sae hard tae see,
until it's PAST... and Historeeee!
Den everyboady says ah could see dat comin',
An' wisnae dat no predicted, by dat Alyss wummin?
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the team has been poor this year
but we have had some good results though.
gs deserves another year to get it completely right, he has 2 out of 2 so if he makes it 3 out of 3 no-one, absolutely no-one can question him.
doesnt mean id cry if he went though. but he has been hindered by guys we all thought were gonna be good for us disappointing.
we have boruc, naylor, nakamura and jvoh as 1st picks. we need to add at least 3 (as the manager has said) to this to stay a semi decent outfit.
this season has been poor to watch.
but at the start of the season, i think, we all thought that gravesen, jarosik, jvoh, zurawski, nakamura, boruc and wilson would make us a free flowing exciting team. it hasnt. it turns out, boruc, naka (only with about one flash a game), naylor, mcmanus, telfer, lennon and mcgeady have seen us through.
lets all wait and see if they splash the cash, no messing, that is whats required here.
if they dont, it will be to the car park.
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on that shoddy performance from saturday.
one up front?...one up front?
against two old grandas
experimentin my bahooky
not got the cahonies to take a chance
more like.
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Lies, damned lies and...
So what if past form says we will not win? The most likely outcome does not always happen in sport. If it did favourites would win every horse race and the bookies would be bankrupt.
So what if only 2 out of 12 double champions have managed to three-peat? (Lovely American sports term!) Does that mean the bookies will give us 5 to 1 for the title - if they do I will wager a very large bet right now.
Next season is a new competition and will be contested by two teams with a few different players from this year. We will start as favourities, probably odds on favourites.
I dont think Rangers chancesa re above 34.4%. They cannot win the title - we can only lose it. And if we can improve our current form, which we will, allied to our ability to win when we really need to I will be confident about three, or more, in a row.
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the right rev. david hay (preaching pure football)
'experimentin my bahooky not got the cahonies to take a chance more like'
Spot on.
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sorry but we can't blame seville for costing us the 2003 title, becuase then it immediately offers the argument thats why we won it in wgs first season out of europe at the first opportunity.
articmonkey
selling stan for £8m and getting jarosik and gravesen with alot of change should of made us a better team and on paper it was the right move i still feel, who would of forseen them flopping so badly
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The Right Rev,
I agree the manager feared a drubbing a la Artmedia, and took minimal risk. It is a pity because the Ranger's central pairing have never been tested, and I'd like to see what they are made of.
A question for you--if we had played two up front, who would you have picked to play alongside JVOH? Choice is very limited, I think.
The main problem is in the middle of the team --there is no creative midfielder, nor a ball carrier. Without either of those players, Celtic will constantly be pushed back into a defensive mode. The evidence is clear, we do not create many chances in a game, so we shall not score many goals, whether we play 1 or 2 up front. I counted two chances on Saturday --Naka's chance, and a header from a corner by McManus, I think. So, one chance from open play! You are not going to win many games with that level of creativity. It is really surprising that this is our weakness, given the Manager's background. Presumably he thought he was addressing this issue when he brought in TG and JJ --- prior to seeing them, I would have agreed with him. He needs another year to see if he can get this correct.
Incidently, for anyone who doubts the quality of JVOH, watch the pass he made to Naka for his chance. We simply do not use him properly--he is more than a target for a high ball.
Finally, we should not be surprised by the improvement of Rangers. They, like us, are not content with wallowing in under-achievement. They do not have many good players but Smith has them playing to their capabilities and as a team. We may not win the League next season, but, be sure, Celtic will come again.
Rebus
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3inarow
Your on the right track mate, don’t get sidetracked by guys who have given GS a vote of confidence, they are entitled to their opnion just as you are yours. Split camp indeed. Personally I cant recall enjoying more than a handful of games this year, the rest have been very predictable, very boring and very unproductive.
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my simplistic take on football.
Money gets you Players
Players gets you Success
Success gets you Money.
You cant buy success or take a shortcut to it - So you need Money and Players (or Staff).
Occasionaly you get an injection of money (rights issue or borrowings) or players/staff (think Henrik to ManU) for little cost.
Rangers have injected the staff side of the equation by bringing back Smith and swally.
We are in a far superior financial position to Rangers thanks to our success in the CL. Our boardroom, CEO are superior to Rangers.
We need to spend the money now to strengthen the squad and to lead us to 3inarow. We also need to be focussed on Europe. (Anyone know when the qualifiers start and if this is before, during or after the transfer window).
If we retain the title then attendences will drop at ibrox, reducing cash, reducing the scope of players they could bring in which would help us to retain it the following year.
In the future we need a team that is fully motivated (Agree with BigChipSuk and the need for a Sports Pyschologist) that wants to destroy Rangers in every game.
4 Wins against Rangers would go a LONG way to retaining the title.
Personally, I would like to see players playing for the Shirt - who know how much it means to the fans and the club to beat rangers.
(Robbie Keane ??)
I'll stop rambling now and get back to work :o)
Hail Hail
Pob
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antsman
I dont think Seville was wholly to blame for losing the league in 2003 but it was a significant factor. We had 11 more European games to play than Rangers which would have had an effect on players.
For what it is worth I do think that Bratislava helped us win the league last year. The free midweeks gave Gordon a lot more time to work with the players in training. Again it wasn't wholly down to this but still a significant factor.
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pob
tell that to leeds fc
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david
my team against the hoardes of darkness would have been.
boruc
doumbe kennedy mcmanus naylor
lennon
gravesen jarosik
naka
jvoh sheridan
i would have given sheridan a run up front, he wouldnt be any worse than miller or beattie and it'd have been worth seeing if he could step up as hes making light work in the reserves.
id have played three across the middle. with naka in the hole (ooeerr mrs). mcgeady could have replaced him at any time if he didnt look up for it, which he didnt. (and why the heck did he not swing at his poor effort with his right leg is beyond me, a disgrace if a player of his technical ability can only use his right leg to stand on)
gravesen and jarosik in the same team to see if they can offer anything at all in midfield.
ive been thinking gravesen is hard done to by the majority on here/in the pub/at the games, until very recently when im beginning now to think maybe its me thats not got a clue ;-)
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From the Evening Times: Scott McDonald's red card last night will earn him a two game ban - the first two games of next season.
Great start already...
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Collie, aye, catch ‘em young is a better strategy than catch ‘em old, but don’t doubt the three in a row issue (2 in a row has been achieved 10 times in England since the war, only twice has 3 in a row been achieved).
This is a central issue at the heart of football management:
Winning teams are not broken up as quickly as they should be, losing teams are broken up right away.
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Scott McDonald.
Can Celtic appeal? If not how can the ban apply?
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Never under estimate the power of the mind. In a team event psycho-analysis tells us that
Confidence in oneself is essential, but confidence in other team members is imperative.
If you do not trust in someones ability your subconscious will tell you not to pass the ball to the underachiever.
You will turn away and look for other options - even when its simpler to give the underachiever the ball.
A harmonious Dressing Room is absolutely essential to success. How much success have Celtic had recently.
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martinbhoy/antsman
One thing next season and the Seville season will have in common is the number of penalties and sending offs favouring Rangers.
The referees will be under pressure not seen since MON's last season.
Remember Tynecastle etc. As MON once suggested we need to be much better to win the league as the decisions tend not to average out.
Just because people call you paranoid doesn't mean you're not right!
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The Rev,
Interesting team selection. I wonder why Kennedy was not played? Was he injured?
I suspect that Saturday would be a step too far, at the moment, for Sheridan, but who knows.
I know this is probably heresy to some, but I am not a complete fan of Naka. I don't think he has 90 minutes in him for an SPL game. He is easily brushed off the ball, and does not have a lot of pace. Hence he would be better coming on in the second half when players are tiring. Having said that, his free kicks can be a thing of beauty.
I saw a lot of Pearson in TG on Saturday--running around to very little purpose. However, I cannot help feeling there is a lot more there and we do not use him properly.
Off to lunch now,
The Star formerly known as Rebus, who cannot change his new blog name
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rebus
i agree re: naka.
take the money i say. our team cannot afford the luxury player that he is when we have so many passengers.
maybe in the middle u would see a different player, but a midfielder needs to tackle and create in my book.
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irish striker a done deal nearly?
Teenager Mark McAllister will put his Irish Cup heartbreak behind him by signing for Scottish giants Glasgow Celtic this week.
The Dungannon Swifts star, who missed the decisive penalty in the team's heartbreaking Irish Cup final defeat on Saturday, will complete a move to the SPL champions after they came in with a firm offer last night.
McAllister confirmed that he had spoken to Celtic on Sunday and was expecting the deal to go through later this week.
"I spoke to them on Sunday and am waiting to here back from them," he said. " It's an exciting time and it has come a bit unexpected because I haven't been over for any trials at any of the big clubs. I'd heard a couple of rumours over the past week or so but nothing concrete happened until after the cup final.
"This has come at a good time because I was gutted after the match. It just shows how quickly things can change in football."
Several Irish League players have already made a seamless transition to Scottish football with Ivan Sproule and Dean Shiels among the successful exports, and McAllister believes it will be a great move.
"I'm a Manchester United fan myself but everyone knows that Celtic are a massive club," he added. "It's a big progression in my career and it would be a great move for me. Harry (Fay) spoke to me over the weekend and he said Scotland would probably be a better move for me than England. We have seen a few players that have gone over to Scotland and they are all doing very well."
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"At 08/05/07 16:14, ianinjesi said…
Scott McDonald.
Can Celtic appeal? If not how can the ban apply?"
Ian, the ban applies to the player, regardless of what club he happens to move to. He is banned 1 game for the sending off (this Saturday) and then a further two games for the number of disciplinary points he has picked up, which comes into effect after 22 May, i.e. next season.
I haven't seen the incident he was sent off for so have no idea whether an appeal would do any good. Anyone??
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The only Hearts player who I reckon Celtic should have gone for....
Midfielder Julien Brellier has revealed that he will definitely be leaving Hearts at the end of the season.
The 25-year-old Frenchman rejected the offer of a new deal last summer and will leave Tynecastle as a free agent.
"I will go because I haven't had a contract offer for a long time," he told the Edinburgh Evening News.
"Last summer I really wanted to stay but if you don't feel the confidence of the club and the people around you then you can't sign any contract."
Although a big favourite with the fans, Brellier has been in and out of the team this season, after an impressive first campaign in Scotland.
Brellier, who joined Hearts on a free transfer from Inter Milan, has been linked with former Tynecastle boss George Burley, now at Southampton.
Interested, I certainly would be...
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I would like to see McGeady play just behind the strikers.
McGeady commits defenders and playing centrally he should win free kicks and be able to find runners more easilly.
I think he is wasted out wide especially wide left.
Count the number of times JVOH makes a run in the box only for Naka and McGeady to check out of the cross or float one in.
This is not their fault as the last player I saw at CP who could play with both feet was Lubo.
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Pob @15.47
Yer Formula sounds like ye goat it right,
an' oan Paper... it looks like dynamite!
But, in dis wee dug's perception,ah t'ink ders a missing part, in yer selection!
An' whit wid dat be? ..why, it's so easy tae see!......
Ye hiv missed da maist important part o' da Plot....
It's a Feature dat stauns heid an' shooders away above da lot,
AULD FASHIONED GUID SCOUTIN'!
Is da t'ing, dat we should be, A TOUTIN'!
Fur the last crop of Mis-fits, dat oor Scouts dey darn picked....
Were Hopeless and Footless... they made me darn sick!
Noo, it's obvious tae me... dat's why Park was invited tae see,
If he could waken de slumberin' bumblin' Scouts.... who ur a loat o' lay abouts......
Fur they ur Battin', .125!......and dat Average ain't nae jive!
collie.
Tail's Awaggin',Awaggin'
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Gordon,
Fair enough but isn`t it the club that usually appeals?
Maurice Malpas reckoned it was a harsh decision when compared to a yellow card given to Mark Burchill which resulted in a player being taken off. Perhaps they will appeal.
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Paul
Frum da git go..as ah wance mair tak da floor,
Ah wiz no knoakin' yer interest in Statistical lore!
Ye mak a grand case,as ye lay oot da facts,
However,remember ders only two things dat are soiten ,an den some...
an' dat's oor total Demise an' da Tax oan oor Income!
So, ah'll go hap happily, richt oan ma merry way,
O' Thinkin' dat next year.....
Celts wull dae a repeater, an win da Affray!...
In fact, ah'll put my two cents in,in predictin', today...
We'll wance mair Toap Da Lot!...
AYEEEEE! Caramba!...Dat Calls fur a Margarita.....
Ah' t'ink ah'll jist pour one...
Der ain't nuttin' Sweeter!
collie.
Tail's Awaggin',Awaggin'
collie.
Tail's Awaggin',Awaggin'
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Hmm so once again we are getting told that selling our best player(s) will make the team better. This reminds me of last season when Kojo and the coterie were all for selling Stan “The Journey Man” Petrov. Tell me if Petrov is/was a journey man what exactly are Hartley and Gravesen?
Anyway fast forward to this season and it is talk of the money on offer for Boruc and Nakamura being just too damn good to refuse. That’s far too familiar for my liking.
Here are last season’s stats courtesy of Etims... 2005-2006 Stats
They show that Petrov had 10 goals and 13 assists, Maloney had 16 goals and 23 assists, and Nakamura had 6 goals and 18 assists.
Here are this season’s from Etims up to the SC semi... 2006-2007 Stats
This season up to the SC semi Nakamura had 10 goals and 22 assists. Petrov and Maloney are both gone and haven’t been adequately replaced. Mcgeady has done well, scoring 5 goals and with 12 assists.
The stats clearly show to all the Naka naysayers that he is not a passenger or an ill afforded luxury. He is in actual fact the most creative player we have.
Where will the goals and assists come from next season if he leaves? Hartley? Gravesen? Jarosik? We can’t expect Mcgeady to do it all on his own.
Why the confidence that whoever we bring in to replace him will be as successful when Gravesen, Jarosik and Hartley have all been such massive failures.
But hey why not get £12M for Nakamura and Boruc as I’m sure we will be far better off without Naka’s goals and assists and Boruc goalkeeping abilities.
We should probably just sell them to a bigger club than ourselves.
We may not qualify for the CL group stages or win the league next season but at least we will have lots of money in the bank to use in the next transfer window or the one after that or the one...
No wait we never spent any money in January to get a badly needed striker did we? I’m sure we’ll spend it in this summer, except why are Kojo and Collie now suddenly telling us it’s best to buy cheap?
Well I suppose we may not spend the money their transfers bring in plus the much vaunted £7M a season, which would be roughly £18M-£19M but I suppose it’s just good to know that it’s there to be spend in the next transfer window. Or maybe the next....
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Artic Monkey
If there's no spend in this forthcoming transfer window then that it really is the end. You can fool some of the people some of the time.
Bit worrying when Paul67 goes from G.O.D. to we'll do very well to beat a skint Rangers with a has-been manager.
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ArcticMonkey
Ye hiv made yer point o' view,
which ye are very much entitled to do.
So, now ye hid yer say, den whit dae U suggest that Pierre and Company,dae?
Should dey blow a lot o' Money?
An' wid dat Guarantee a tae mak things, Bricht an' Sunny?
Go aheed, my freen, an' tell us whit tae dae.
We'll be hingin' oan each an' every woid, ye say.
collie.
Tail's Awaggin', Awaggin'
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I'd perhaps keep a little aside for next year in the event we fail to make the group stages of the CL.
That way we smooth out any loses.
If we fail to make the group stages then we need to make the semifinals of the Uefa Cup. If we do qualify then we add it to the January transfer kitty.
The majority of remaining money should be spent in the Summer.
The rest kept over for January sales / emergencies.
Bosmans should still be looked at even if it just as an asset management excercise a la Miller and Pressley.
There should also be some new players making the step up from the youth teams. If they are not good enough then sell them on and plough that money back into the youth teams.
Collie,
When I said Money gets you players that includes scouting and youth setup. We always need to get value for money no matter where a player comes from.
Hail Hail
Pob
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Kojo, from the last thread.
Watch out or you will get banned from this site.
At 08/05/07 08:20, tinytim said…
Kojo
I was shot down here some weeks ago for suggesting that there were problems in The D.R.
If the players are not on your side then you have a major problem.
Just look at the Hibs and Hearts results.
A leopard can't change it's spots.
There is Rum for improvement,but i don't think that he will change.
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Collie
I’d start by rejecting any bids for Boruc and Nakamura and build the team around them. It doesn’t make sense to me to try to build a good team capable of G.O.D and regular last 16 CL football if we are to sell our best players every season.
I share your view in that spending a lot of money doesn’t guarantee success but we were in dire need of a penalty box striker in January and we got nothing, zilch, nada.
I don’t want us to spend a fortune on new players. I’m all for buying cheap as you say, with the odd relatively big signing every season, so long as we do not continually sell our best players.
We should, with our current financial health, be able to keep Boruc and Nakamura and spend £7M this season without factoring in the money gained from the departures of Miller, Gravesen, Jarosik, Balde etc.
If come September a Celtic team including Boruc and Naka along with some new quality players are in the CL group stages and are top of the SPL, then I will be delighted and know that my expectations for my club are being met.
But
If we were to sell Boruc and/or Naka, spend very little, fail to qualify for the CL Group Stages and are behind a terrible Rangers team in the SPL then I’ll be in the Car Park along with many others I should think...
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danny, be sure to read again; I was careful to note that while Rangers might be able to manage one big splurge, the fundamentals will not change.
They last splurged in 2000 and have been net sellers ever since. They can splurge again and spend the next six or seven years trying to get back to equilibrium.
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Paul67
What's it they say about damn lies and statistic's?
Are your trying to lower our expectation's again?
If we don't win the league next season it won't be because the law of average went against us.
If it is because change is needed ,and it won't be made ,then i don't know what to say.
If the players are lax then it's up to the management to sort it.
From 65 to 97,a 22 year span.
Three in a row was done 6 times.
The stat's mean nothing, we start this season with supposedly a better squad, and more available fund's.
Or is that not indeed the case?
I don't buy into you post one bit.
As an estate agent i don't get instructed on every free valuation that i do.
If i get instructed on five out of five.
The chance on me getting instructed on the next appointment ,is the same as it was, on the first one.
It's up to how well i perform ,and how motivated i am.
It's the same with Celtic, every season.
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Paul67
Not for thr first time i mentioned CQN to somebody today.
The man is an intelligent individual ,and has a good management position with one of Scotlands premier chartered surveyor firm's.
He told me that he reads the site but never posts.
He said that he only reads Paul67's comments,as there are far too many to scroll through.
He say's that it is obvious that you are on the Celtic payroll and therefore in the know.
Never mind John Reid.
When are you officially joining the board?
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Tiny Tim
I see that you have understood da clue.... my,my, as Kojo said yesterday, tae me.....
It wiz solved by very very few!...
He said that he musta be slippin'... as he thought it wiz sae easy...it wiz a flamin' pippin!!
Ye are richt, Ah remember ye said the very same,
At da time,it wiz soitenly no a popular claim!
But, we ur told dat Gordo, is oan da Bubble,
An' if we lose tae Dunfermline!!!
Weeeeeeeeel, ye kin see, He micht be in fur a leetle bit o' TROUBLE!!!!!!
collie.
Tail's Awaggin',Awaggin'
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Arctic Monkey
Ah hiv read wid interest yer submission,
An' a must ah like yer style as ye show a loat o' Vision.
There is wan thing ah must point oot, though...
AH HIV NEVER MENTIONED THAT WE SHOULD LET NAKA GO!!
Fur he is da mainsping o' da Team....
He is da only wan who is keepin' us oan da Beam!
Da Goalie?
Everyboady knows, dat he is da Bestest dat we hiv ever ever had!
But we must face the hard facts aboot dis lad......
He wiz never slated tae stey wit' us...which is sad!
He his a clause.... weel, ah'll no go intae awe da details....
But suffice tae say...ye'll hiv tae guess, as tae wit those details dae entail!
If an offer comes in fer he... we will gladly take it, if it's high, and fits oor valuation, tae a "T"!
collie.
Tail's Awaggin',Awaggin'
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a couple of thoughts on the opposition.....Murray is working hard to sell the club, he thought he had a buyer 3 months ago and got close to a deal but it fell through.....don't know why.....
...murray constantly undermines his executive managment at Ibrox and this is a significant factor in their commercial failure in comparison to ours.....the non football management of Rangers are becoming increasingly frustrated with the constraints put on them, and his constant undermining of their efforts......
....i would be surprised if there is a large spend this transfer window, especially as he has failed to find a buyer with the current level of debt, it's unlikely he would find one with a significantly increased level....and murray is now more interested in selling than winning....
...the releatively poor results at the ongoing businesses of MIH, as detailed in their recent accounts, would also suggest that a large spend is unlikely......
....i think it's more likely that there will be a couple of signings where the transfer value is not released, and then a greatly inflated price is put into circulation via some media friendly poodles....these will then be talked up in a capucho and emerson way to help morale and season ticket sales....
regardless of any of that, we should spend all that we can afford to improve the team....
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Hi Paul67 and all,
I was just watching the Scottish news on STV there and they where taking about the Commonwealth Games and the bid that Scotland are going to submit tomorrow, they went on to say at the end of the article the games committee will announce tomorrow what part Celtic Park is going play in the games.
Any glues in what part Celtic Park is to play?
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i think there is merit in the post but i agree about the stats. i personally hate it when commentators spout out "not won here in 10 years" etc etc. clearly the result from 10 years ago has no bearing on one now. however it does show perhaps a cycle
tinytim, being intelligent or having a good job does not allow you to take the position of saying "its obvious" based on just reading posts esp when he does not know the poster at all
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Anyone hear the report on Five Live that Celtic are in for a Blackburn Rovers player? I just caught the end of the report.
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Jason Roberts apparently, Ian
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Paul67
I think you have surpassed yourself with today's nonsense, you are starting to have the accuracy of a stopped clock.
Your articles have all the credibility of a Tsarist secret service "False Front", you will catch the new and the unwary but over time your reputation will go before you.
As I have stated before you are a PL plant and the "Careinthecommunity" CSC are his booster club. Every month the pro-board or more accurately the pro PL slant becomes more obvious.
Generation of domination
Double the turnover
Last 16 / XX points clear
MIM on its last legs
Asset management
With a list like that your credibility is diminishing quicker than WGS's.
Now is the time to indulge in some cool refl |
