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A long six months ahead

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

One of the primary consequences of our elimination from the Champions League this week is the dearth of equivalent competition between now and when it all gets a bit serious with Champions League qualifiers in August.

This is not to say we are going to win at Easter Road on Saturday, a reversal would not be a surprise, but on-form Hibernian are never going to prepare us for challenges in Europe.  There is some value in games against Newco, who remain in the Europa League.  They could have helped the cause more by remaining in the Scottish Cup long enough to face a proper challenge.  As it is, we only have two games against them before September.

The demands which Brendan Rodgers recently referred to Arne Engels facing will drop.  The need to rotate the squad diminishes, which results in fewer opportunities for fringe players to develop.

This is shaping up to be another historic season for Celtic, but being so far ahead in the league and out of Europe will affect also commercial revenue streams.  It could be a long six months until the third week in August.  First World problems, eh?

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  1. McPhail Bhoy on

    Rangers are likely to be valuing the club at around 150m as Ibrox takeover talks are advancing. (Football Insider)

     

     

    Yes but 150m what?!

     

     

    RIP Evan Williams

  2. Chairbhoy on

    BACK TO BASICS – GLASS HALF FULL @ 7:27 AM,

     

     

    Yes, that’s my understanding, it’s the score after e.t. that counts.

     

     

    However penalties don’t count to the co-eff, meaning, for example, if Shamrock Rovers did win on penalties last night, they still wouldn’t get co-eff points for the game.

     

     

    Unfortunately not to be, wonder if Johnny Kenny would have made a difference for them!?

     

     

    We’ve done great for the co-eff this season 17pts.

     

     

    Our disastrous 2020/21 season where we only got 3pts will soon be off.

     

     

    However with only Celtic and R2ngers making any serious co-eff points, we really need to see the other Scottish Clubs competing or we are moving further down the table.

     

     

    Worth scrolling down…

     

     

    https://www.football-coefficient.eu/team/113-celtic-fc/

     

     

    Do you know, it’s unlikely, but not impossible for the Premier League to have 7 (seven) Clubs in the Champions League next season.

     

     

    Another site if you wish to see the Country’s and the Club’s ranking…

     

     

    https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/

     

     

    Hail Hail

  9. Burnley78 on

    Chairbhoy

     

     

    I am not sure coeff points are gained from this play off round. Only the actual qualification for last 16 gets rewarded as I understand it.

  13. Parkheadcumsalford on

    Recently someone was mentioning Jack showing his true colours (quite literally). There was a documentary on the BBC a wee while ago about the Herald. When it’s sales began collapsing they had to reduce their staff. In the sports department, I think I am right in saying, they had 3 “journalists”, Lindsay, Jack and an Allison McConnell (I think). The first 2 covered sevco, the third covered Celtic. No prizes for guessing who was first out the door. I don’t think I have bought that rag since.

  15. Burnley78 on

    Chairbhoy

     

     

    Didn’t be so touchy about any criticism.

     

     

    Also good of you get your facts right.

     

     

    There is no ambiguity and it is nothing to do with PSV or Liverpool.

     

     

    I will explain it simply for you so you don’t get upset and think I am being negative about dear Brendan.

     

     

    Facts.

     

     

    1 point more in co eff terms by winning in Zagreb would have taken us above Ferencvaros in club rankings.

     

     

    The only time club rankings now really matter is for qualification for next seasons competition. They do not count for this year.

     

     

    Being above them in rankings would really help as there are 5 seeded slots and 5 unseeded slots in the qualification final round for league winners in August. If they do come through and win their league (which they usually do) they would be above us.

     

     

    Bodo

     

    Zagreb

     

    Shakhtar

     

    Salzburg

     

    Olympiakos

     

    Red Star

     

    Ferencvaros

     

    Copenhagen

     

     

    All above us right now and all possible opponents.

     

     

    Bodo and Red Star definitely.

     

     

    So it’s about only having 4 above us out of the 6 remaining failing to get into the completion or it will be higher risk.

     

     

    There is a possibility the highest ranked (Olympiakos currently) of these could get direct entry if the CL winner also qualifies via their domestic route.

     

     

    This would mean 3 from 5 have to fail.

     

    Salzburg almost definitely not in Austria. So we have 2 from 4.

     

     

    Ferencvaros out of the way would then have meant we only needed 1 out of Copenhagen Zagreb and Shakhtar to fail and we would be seeded.

     

     

    All of course is moot if Ferencvaros fail to win their league Hungarian league which seems a possibility as they trail Puskas Academy.

     

     

    Croatia, Hungary, Denmark and Ukraine are all places of interest for us this next few weeks.

     

     

    Assuming we take care of our business.

  19. Chairbhoy on

    BURNLEY78 @ 9:13 AM,

     

     

    Yes, I’ve heard it both ways, would be good to get clarification…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  20. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    505,498,288 – the number of RIFC shares outstanding.

     

     

    £150m for the equity = 30p per share.

     

     

    For reference, Celtic’s market capitalisation (equity value) is c.£165m.

     

     

    HOWEVER, Celtic have £65m of (net?) cash sitting on the balance sheet, which implies at today’s share price someone could buy Celtic for £100m debt free.

     

     

    Are the “49ers” going to pay a 50% premium for RIFC equity and assume the debt as well?

     

     

    If they are then fill yer boots with Celtic shares for they are screamingly cheap (not investment advice!).

  21. 18 yard man on

    BACK TO BASICS – GLASS HALF FULL on 21ST FEBRUARY 2025 7:27 AM

     

    Re the Bayern game – I was told yesterday that, if a second leg goes to extra time? …

     

    … the score after 120 minutes, not 90, is used for coefficient points calculation.

     

    This I did not know.

     

    #########

     

     

    I remember asking that question on Bert Kassie’s forum after our extra-time loss to Milan. The gurus there were surprised that I thought that our 0-0 at 90 minutes would earn a coefficient point and soon put me right.

     

    As it happens, in the new format, play-off games don’t earn club coefficient points now but do add to the country coefficient. So, our final club coefficient this season was 16.0, but we added 17.0 to Scotland’s pot.

  22. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    B78 / Chairbhoy

     

     

    Fascinating chat gents on coefficients.

     

     

    Respect.

     

     

    It’s been a topic close to my heart for 10 years.

     

     

    I wish the football authorities in Scotland were equally invested.

     

     

    Too often people metaphorically throw their hands up in the air or bury their heads in the sand.

     

     

    “It’s too complicated !! Aarggh”

     

     

    Eh, no it isn’t. Fundamentally it is simple.

     

     

    Across a rolling 5-year period ….

     

     

    – clubs need four steady years and one impressive year (basically go on a run once every five years and avoid embarrassing yourself always)

     

     

    – countries need a minimum of three clubs in the group stages but, ideally four (which Scotland has never achieved)

     

     

     

     

    B78 – re seeding for play offs … your logic is flawless and your data highly informative but I’ll be honest … I worry a lot less about this now than I used to for two reasons.

     

     

    1. The quality gap between seeded and non-seeded teams is narrowing. A few years ago, when e.g. the Dutch were in the mix … the range of quality of Play off participants was palpable. Now, IMHO, there are a cluster of “quite good”

     

     

    2. The consistency (not necessarily improvement) gradually being introduced by BR.

     

     

    Celtic have been mercurial in Europe this century. Beat Barcelona, lose to Cluj.

     

     

    The play offs are still a lottery but I think we are now better prepared and more confident taking on teams in that “Quite good” category.

  23. Burnley78 on

    Chairbhoy

     

     

     

     

    The 4 relevant leagues for us are at an interesting stage.

     

     

    All approx 13 games to go.

     

     

    Ukraine restarts after a break with Shakhtar Donetsk 10 points adrift of Kiev. They do have a game in hand. The big match will be 3 or 4 from end of season between these 2. If Kiev keep their steady domestic form though it might be academic. That suits us.

     

     

    Croatia is close. Very close. Zagreb picking up and now 4 points behind Rejika and 3 behind faltering Hadjuk Split. This weekend sees Rejika v Zagreb which could be massive. Zagreb has momentum and now focus. They know the course and distance.

     

     

    Copenhagen and Mitdjyland is interesting. They are dead level with 13 to go and play each other Sunday. Mitdjyland maybe be able to focus better now they are out of Europa and Copenhagen still have the Conference. That said both had really taxing matches last night. We obviously don’t want Copenhagen.

     

     

    Finally to Hungary where Robbie Keane is doing his best to help us. They don’t like foreign coaches there anyway. I can’t imagine his tenure will be long now. Puskas Academy are the Presidents team. They are now 4 points ahead. It could be they might get over the line which could also help us.

     

     

    We need 2 of these 4 (Shaktar / Zagreb / Copenhagen / Ferencvaros ) to fail to win their leagues and Olympiakos to get the automatic slot and we will have a better chance of an easier play off tie.

  25. Burnley78 on

    Back to Basics

     

     

    Seeding value

     

     

    I totally agree it has been a lottery historically and also the point re general levelling up. Seasonality with scandi teams plays its part.

     

     

    That said most of those we could play if we are not seeded will be more ‘battle hardened’ and been over the course and distance. Most of those not will be the opposite.

     

     

    Most of them had significant experience in Europe this season as we did. Personally a Malmo or a Ludogorets or even Kiev feels easier. Of course there could be plenty of tricky ones. I was more keen on eliminating the really obvious challenges from our path.

     

     

    None will be easy. Hence the challenge for me is to maintain the current settled team until then.

  26. Burnley78 on

    Chairbhoy

     

     

    I see Benfica and Feyenoord and PSV and Brugge as peer level teams not from big 5 leagues. I see them as teams we have done better than occasionally in the past and also sometimes worse They are teams we have done worse than this season. That frustrates me.

     

     

    It’s really simple. Dress it up how you like. Those are the facts.

     

     

    We had a really strong team. Well resourced vs those and we had a very easy draw compared with any of those teams.

     

     

    They are still competing we are out.

  27. Chairbhoy on

    BURNLEY78…

     

     

    Thanks for the feedback, I’m not in a position to due your comments justice at the moment but will get back…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  30. The hand of God on

    B78 , Benfica,PSV,Feyenoord and Club Brugges play in leagues that provide far higher revenues than Scotland.Players from those leagues also attract far higher transfer fees,so a somewhat unfair comparison to base your “facts” on.Whats with the negativity?

  31. Stephbhoy1967 on

    10 eufa coefficient points drop off the 5 year cycle this season. we have added 17, so a good swing, think about 39 points overall going into next season. Next season 3 eufa coefficient points drop off, if we win the league and make it through the qualifiers we will instantly be better off, without pickin up another point due to guaranteed 6 points for group stage appearance. However, I would hope if it falls that way we can match this seasons preformance and really push ourselves up the coefficient ladder.

     

     

    Picking up points in champions league is a harder task than picking up points in lesser competitions in europe so it’s good uefa have made changes that sees this reflected in their 3 competitions I.e. more coefficient points for participation and final group placement in champions league.

     

     

    Teams like sevco have picked up lots of coefficient points in the lesser competitions and end up being higher ranked than much better clubs.

     

     

    Aberdeen, hibs and hearts used to be more competitve domestically and have proud european histories. They have shown ambition i.e., around stadium, training centres etc the the blame does not lie at their doors only.

     

     

    Additionally, scottish football is chronically under funded when compaired to our european compatriots in leagues such as Norway, demark, Sweden etc getting substantially more from commercial/ television deals.

     

     

    I think that is largely due to our television broadcasting being shared within the u.k. Essentially the epl has a negative impact on all aspects of our football in Scotland, more than anywhere else in the world out with the lower leagues in England, albeit, they do recieve financial aid and possible access to the cartel.

     

     

    Given the unique arrangements in the UK we should be pushing the government to address a system that prevents clubs from scotland playing in England and that recognises the damage the epl has on Scottish football and addressing that situation.

  33. Burnley78 on

    Interesting to see the various pieces of the puzzle coming together over in govan.

     

     

    Patrick Stewart was an odd one without any assurances. Clearly we see why now.

     

     

    Their vulnerability is their strength / appeal I guess right now. It’s obvious to many their market cap should be nearer ours but their pitiful management and vested interests plus how well we have been run has litigated against it.

     

     

    The opportunity is there IF these guys can untify and value for all. May sense is they will.

     

     

    Fresh new money will also be interesting but they are certainly talking re a proper sustainable model and not a one man show.

  34. Burnley78 on

    The Hand of God

     

     

    You are correct re TV revenue. But that’s more evenly split in their markets. They also have less guarantees re winning domestically.

     

     

    Our match day and hospitality revenues dwarf theirs.

     

     

    Player trading is where they score higher and we are addressing that now.

     

     

    Fair point but we are also currently investing vs the like of Feyenoord who are selling and indeed sit .4th in their league. Brugge have half the capacity we have. Likewise PSV.

  35. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    18 Yard Man @ 10:01

     

     

    Apologies – missed your very insightful post re coefficients.

     

     

    (Was probably too busy composing the yap I posted a few minutes later)

  36. An Tearmann on

    The hand of God on 21st February 2025 10:56 am

     

    B78 , Benfica,PSV,Feyenoord and Club Brugges play in leagues that provide far higher revenues than Scotland.Players from those leagues also attract far higher transfer fees,so a somewhat unfair comparison to base your “facts” on.Whats with the negativity?

     

     

    Now dont be going introducing common sense.

     

    It is appalling that if we win a treble we get less money than the beeb give to fund MOTD!!

     

     

    The negativity on B78/P67 is a change in the transfer model from ‘many many hopeful projects’ to quality projects,ie upping the tfer pd in the hope we recoup more when selling,all under a sustained coaching programme of Brendan Rodgers.

     

    I am still to be convinced either B78 or P67 are fully behind BR….oh what its like not to be in the know and buy quality instead of unknown projects.

     

     

    HH

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