The Sun today presented the latest instalment of the ‘money from Asia heading to Ibrox’ story, with a figure of £20m quoted. This has been kicking around all season and my information is there is that potential investors with cash took a look as far back as October.
The problems at Newco are clear, documented in their accounts, and by Dave King at their AGM. The club’s annual losses run to eight figures, the liabilities of various litigation defeats could easily top £10m, it is heavily dependent on shareholder loans and the principle shareholder, Dave King, will not fund beyond this season.
What was missing from The Sun piece was specifics. If your information amounts to “a mystery Asian investor and a Hong Kong-based backer”, you don’t have enough to substantiate the story. Forgive the pun, but this sounds like Chinese whispers. “£20m”, “Hong Kong”, “Asian” is all a bit generic. If they had even given us something like, ‘A fan, originally from Paisley, who made his money in the Far East’ I would have thought their information was possibly on a par with mine.
£20m could well be the figure to plug the immediate shortfall. I expect the globe has been searched for a funder to take advantage of this unique opportunity. That we are four months on from the AGM and still working on hearsay is an indication of just how unique an investment this is.
Due diligence will be a problem, as we discussed last month, Newco have run out of road when it comes to Uefa Financial Fair Play regulations. New money can pay for old debts, or failed legal cases, but it cannot fund football operations. And who wants to pay for King’s hubris?
King looks increasingly like a motivated seller, maybe his old pal, David Murray, can give him some advice on how to find worthy buyer for an iconic football club? If you know of anyone, drop the club a line using commercial@…..
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Herd-immunity–will-be-vital-to-stopping-coronavirus
The key phrase we all need to understand is ‘herd immunity’ – which is what happens to a group of people or animals when they develop sufficient antibodies to be resistant to a disease.
The strategy of the British government in minimising the impact of Covid-19 is to allow the virus to pass through the entire population so that we acquire herd immunity, but at a much delayed speed so that those who suffer the most acute symptoms are able to receive the medical support they need, and such that the health service is not overwhelmed and crushed by the sheer number of cases it has to treat at any one time.
The government’s experts – the chief medical officer and the chief scientific advisor – have made two big judgements.
First, as the World Health Organisation on Wednesday in effect conceded, that there is no way now of preventing the virus sweeping across Africa, Asia and the Americas – which in practice means that it will be an ever-present threat to the UK, unless and until a mass vaccine is available for use.
Second, the kind of coercive measures employed by China in Wuhan and Hubei have simply locked the virus behind the closed doors of people’s homes.
And just as soon as the constraints on freedom of movement are lifted there, the monstrous virus will rear its hideous face again.
What are the consequences for the UK of these judgements, which the Prime Minister and Health Secretary are accepting?
We will know the detail later on Thursday, after the Cobra meeting of ministers and experts make the formal decision to move from the phase of containing the virus to delaying the inevitable epidemic.
But we already know that at the heart of their plans are increasing the proportion of the population able to be tested and also what’s known as ‘social distancing’.
In the first instance, this will mean encouraging anyone showing even the mild symptoms – such as a dry cough – to self-isolate at home.
But what it does not mean, at least yet, is school closures or the banning of mass events like football matches.
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There are a few reasons why school closures are not regarded as sensible, not least that children themselves are the least at risk from the virus – although they may well be an important channel of infection-transmission to older people who are at risk.
However, the government’s main argument against closing schools is it would – at a stroke – massively deplete the manpower of hospitals and care homes, because vast numbers of medical staff would be forced to stay home to look after their children.
And at the heart of the UK’s challenge – as confirmed on Wednesday in the Budget with its extra £5 billion for the NHS, as a down payment on the needed extra beds and relevant kit – is how to make sure hospitals have the resources to treat the expected surge in those needing urgent attention.
For what it’s worth, ministers are looking with grim bemusement at the debate in football’s governing bodies about banning the public from stadia.
They fear this fuels alarmism and do not think playing matches behind closed doors is necessary at this stage.
Far more sensible, they believe, is for all of us to become much more wary about physical contact with everyone in our day-to-day lives – whether travelling to work, at work, or at the shops.
And many more of us should take the opportunity to work at home, perhaps all the time, if we possibly can.
To get through this, we all need to become less tactile, more cautious in our physical contact.
And, as the WHO’s Margaret Harris said on my show last night, these social and cultural changes may have to become permanent.
I’m wrestling with a bit of a dilemma. If covid19 had occurred in the closing stages of 2008, let’s say March/April when Celtic were at one point 12 points behind, with two Glasgow derbies still to play, would we have accepted that a curtailing of the league should result in Rangers being awarded the league? I know I would have screamed bloody murder at the time. So, devil’s advocate question, why in a similar situation would curtailment automatically mean the league goes to Celtic? I’m genuinely torn on that one.
FTSE 100 tanking.
Mission accomplished Donald
david17 on 12th March 2020 10:44 am
‘The government’s experts – the chief medical officer and the chief scientific advisor – have made two big judgements.’
###
You have to wonder how much real life experience of attending football matches as one of the great unwashed these individuals have.
PÓGMATHONYAHUN AKA LAIRD OF THE SMILES on 12TH MARCH 2020 9:41 AM
Just got a great video sent to me on FB messenger. It features a Torcuil Crichton on last night’s Newsnight being asked about today’s Cobra meeting. He discusses measures such as social distancing and playing football behind closed doors. He finishes by saying “Seems there are no lengths people will go to to stop Celtic winning the league this year.”
Unfortunately it will not download so can’t post it here. 😂😂
…………….
Thanks for that. Just watched the whole of Newsnight on iPlayer and there was no Torcuil Crichton! Googled him and he is the Daily Record’s Political Editor at Westminster. Apparently someone on Follow Follow also saw it too. 🤣 The programme he actually appeared on was Scotland Tonight.
Bamboo
The virus spreads by human contact, and takes about 5 days between contact and symptoms emerging.
Contact can be direct – physical contact with or airborne transmission from an infected person, or indirect – from surfaces touched by an infected person.
From what I gather, there are a couple of important variables:
Firstly, the rate of transmission; and secondly the rate of symptomatic illness.
For flu, transmission is around 18% per flu season, with more than half of infected people being ‘asymptomatic’. In other words, more than half infected people can transmit the virus but have no (or little) symptoms of it.
If you take the case of the Diamond Princess cruise liner, the numbers are quite interesting. Passengers and crew were quarantined on board for almost 4 weeks. In total, all 4061 people on board plus those who had earlier disembarked were tested.
Of these, 705 tested positive, with 410 cases being asymptomatic.
Given the nature of cruise liners, it is highly likely that every person on board during the period was in contact with the virus.
The numbers indicate a transmission rate of around 17%, of which around 42% developed symptoms.
It should be noted that the average age of a cruise passenger is somewhat older than that of the population at large, and also that older persons are more likely to contract the virus and show symptoms.
OK, so there’s some data, which could be used to figure out what might happen in the general population if the virus contacts everyone. Clearly, the more mobile a population, and the more dense, the higher likelihood of transmission. On this principle, I’ve just bought my Mother-in-law an Oyster card for the London Underground.
In the UK, transmission and infection rates are running at about 4 days behind Spain, which is about 10 days behind Italy.
As of yesterday – 11th March – UK had 450 cases, with 83 new cases that day.
Four days ago, Spain had 430 cases with 63 new that day.
Two weeks ago Italy had 445 cases, of which 125 were new cases that day.
New cases in Spain and Italy have doubled every four days in the intervening period.
Extrapolating the data is easy enough, although there are myriad factors which either we can’t take account of, or we don’t know. But…
At face value you might expect new cases in the UK to start taking off today/tomorrow, doubling every 3-4 days. Watch the rate of new cases for a steer.
That would put the UK at around 2000 cases by Monday, with around 500 new cases that day, similar to Spain yesterday.
A week or so further on, you might expect Italy levels of infection, with 10,000 cases and upwards of 1500 new cases per day.
What happens after that we’ll need to wait and see, but keep your eyes on what happens in Italy and Spain in the coming days for a preview, and also Germany and France where cases are at a similar level.
I’m sure if the number of new cases in Italy starts to diminish in the coming days we’ll all be very grateful.
None of which has any professional authority whatsoever, and is merely a set of clumsy observations from available information.
Wash yer hands and keep your old folks off the bus.
Oh, and don’t lick the buttons in the elevator.
Ernie Lynch,
You seem desperate to me,for the football to be suspended.No strategies to keep it going seem,in your opinion,to be acceptable.In a country with 40 or so,confirmed cases,you are sounding every post,more like one of the gloating Huns,salivating at the thought of this title being taken from us.
The Battered Bunnet on 12th March 2020 10:57 am
Without a huge increase in the level of testing to a consistent level everywhere the data is going to be seriously deficient.
If football is still taking place in Scotland, let Leverkusen play the second leg at Celtic Park.
Should get a healthy crowd of Glaswegian Leverkusen fans even if the old folk are kept off the busses.
Turkeybhoy on 12th March 2020 11:05 am
I’ve been advocating games being played behind closed doors, and fixtures being brought forward to get the season completed before events overtake us and it has to be abandoned.
I’m inclined to suggest that your judgement may be flawed.
Found the programme on STV Player. Torcuil Crichton speaks very early in the programme.
BOB LOBLAW
My recollection is that the two derbies were both at Celtic Park in the 2008 run in.
If Sevco win both derbies and their game in hand, they’re 4 points away from us with a tougher run in and a handful of games left.
The bookies have us as 1/41 to win the league this year. They’re 22/1. I don’t know the odds from 2008 but I’d wager they were not that far out.
As it is, we render this argument mute with a win on Sunday.
La Liga suspended for ten days at least as reported by BBC.
Real Madrid in isolation, CL game against City will not go ahead as planned.
Kris Ajers agent now saying he is definitely leaving in the Summer.The player said in January,he was extremely happy,and had no wish to go anywhere.Quoted,”I love playing for Celtic”.Agent spouting off,or true?.Sure Ernie Lynch will let us know.Then again,not sure if he knows anything about Celtic.Never seems to speak about them.
I’m afraid this season looks like it could be over very soon. This is going to run for many months.
Ernie, data deficiency is a given.
What’s also a given is that virtually all of us will come into contact with the virus in the coming weeks, it’s largely just a matter of how quickly it spreads and the rate of symptomatic infection.
UK Govt wants a slow spread and hopes for a low rate of symptomatic infection. What we get will be what we get.
Then, I suppose, the data will be complete…
Credit to Neil Lennon and his players for opening up the 13 point gap since the winter break. It’s possible that the league could be cancelled.
If so, I’m glad there is now no doubt who should be champions. If we are awarded the title before 38 games are played it will still be well earned.
Only the most deranged orcs will cry foul.
TOSB,
Sorry for the bum information. 🙁
Ajer has two years left in his contract this summer.
Like every other player under contract in our squad, he’ll leave when we’re happy with the transfer fee.
TBB
“ OK, so there’s some data, which could be used to figure out what might happen in the general population if the virus contacts everyone. Clearly, the more mobile a population, and the more dense, the higher likelihood of transmission. On this principle, I’ve just bought my Mother-in-law an Oyster card for the London Underground.”
…………………………..
You’re a rascal. :-))
ERNIE LYNCH on 12TH MARCH 2020 10:36 AM
The Times
Donald Trump suspends travel from mainland Europe to US …
TOSB
That’s not how she refers to me!
Ernie Lynch.,
Bollox.You are now questioning the Chief Medical Officer,and the Chief Scientific Officer.
The Battered Bunnet on 12th March 2020 11:19 am
‘Ernie, data deficiency is a given.’
##
The inconsistency in levels of testing isn’t a given. It’s a deliberate choice by governments.
Ajer’s agent is in the Norwegian press suggesting he’s off in the summer.
Not til we get a replacement.
Schools in Ireland closing and all mass gatherings cancelled.
Schools closed in Eire – gatherings of 500 to be banned
Mass gatherings not gatherings at Mass unless more than 100
Timaloy 29,
Well there are plenty of deranged Huns already on their sites,gloating about us getting stuffed for this title.
An Dun, thanks for your reply. You’re right both derbies were due to be played at Celtic Park nad that was a huge reason I kept the faith at the time, when many others gave up the ghost after a defeat to ( I think) Motherwell. That said, I don’t know if bookies odds are a fair indicator of whether a league should be called null and void or awarded to the leading team.
I’m just acknowledging, in my own mind I would have had an entirely different view then than I do now on whether the league should be voided or called for Celtic. Over and above that my preference is that a way is found to complete the fixtures to remove any grounds for debate, even if that means behind closed doors.
TURKEYBHOY on 12TH MARCH 2020 11:27 AM
Ernie Lynch.,
Bollox.You are now questioning the Chief Medical Officer,and the Chief Scientific Officer.
==============================================================
Hang on , mate.
Have you not been downplaying the seriousness of this outbreak. ?
THE BATTERED BUNNET@10.57
“Two weeks ago Italy had 445 cases”
As of 6pm yesterday -Italy had 10,596 cases..The dead ? -837.
Doctor at an ICU in Bergamo this am –
“Yes it’s true that @ 70% of the dead are over 70 /had existing chronic conditions but 30 % weren’t old or chronically ill.-the cause of death is Binary Interstitial Pneumonia”
Would Ibrox on Sunday be classed as a ‘Mass Gathering’
They’ll not like that
if the club is serious about opening a museum stevie chalmers’ medals and jerseys should be purchased and displayed in the museum.
the sale of these treasured items must be desperately sad for stevie’s family.
The good thing about the state of the Govan swamp is Celtic won’t be able to try and play like Barcelona .. they’ll just have to scrap for the ball .. which makes me more confident about winning on Sunday.
An accurate English version of what another Bergamo medic had to say re Covid 19 in Bergamo – @15 minutes worth-
https://youtu.be/s2XDF2fSpz8
new article posted.
European Space Agency postpones mission to Mars due to coronavirus.
!