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Clear player development strategy

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

A metric you and I have followed for many years is the number of games a young player has played before signing for Celtic.  We have a hot spot of between 60 and 80 games.  Before this, there is not enough time to scout and make a decision.  Afterwards, if the player has genuine potential, there are usually clubs from the big leagues competing.

Although 23-years-old, Hayato Inamura can still be considered young, as he only left the Japanese university system last year.  He played 36 games in all competitions for Albirex Nigata before signing for Celtic on Friday.  36 games produces very few data points, the central defender is not going to show on many analysis tools due to the small sample size.

So what can we infer from this?  The great lesson of Moneyball (the book, not the movie), is that if you want to out-perform more resourceful rivals, you need to find a metric they have overlooked, but which helps you.  In plucking a Japanese player with 36 games on his CV, you can be sure we are working to a system.

Brendan Rodgers suggested Hayato may be put out on loan, this will be to give the manager the information he does not yet have on the player.  We can be confident he will have triggered at least one metric and he will have been scouted several times.

No player is the finished article this early in his career, so there is work to do.  But overall, I am happy that unlike last summer, we have a clear player development strategy.  We will find out in due course if it lives up to previous strategies.

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  3. TexasTim on

    Morning all.

     

     

    Sad times in Texas with so many killed in the flooding the pictures are terrifying and so many young kids.

     

     

    Puts our game back in perspective.

     

     

    Aipple – have great trip to the old country.

  4. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Well if he fits our system that would be a start. Hasn’t always been the case in the past.

  5. quadrophenian on

    Just so I understand this one Paul…

     

    As a club, we oughta be recruiting per a data-driven analytics system that gets the approval of – say – an inveterate/professional gambler, which is rich in metrics that take the hunch-work or punt out of prospect signing.

     

    Howevva, the exception to this rule of sore thumb is when we pick a player from the other side of the world who has very few metrics available, but there’s a secret metric which says we should buy him, then send him out on loan in order to get corroborative metrics that justify our acquisition ?

     

     

    BhoyOhBhoy CSC !

  8. Hoop hoop Hooray on

    Yay

     

    We are back to handing the manager a project just like summer 23. Clearly not signed for the needs of the squad.

     

     

    . “But overall, I am happy that unlike last summer, we have a clear player development strategy.”

     

     

    Dearie me.

     

    You mean unlike last summer when we signed players (including 3 youngsters in Engels Bernardo and Idah who all contributed to a huge successful season.

     

     

    Glad your excited Paul at the prospect of yet another signing who will never play for our first team competitively.

     

     

    I have come to the conclusion that this site with its unbearable ads is just fishing for comments so ain’t gonna get hooked anymore after this

  9. glendalystonsils on

    We have already recruited two first team ready players in KT and Nygren and hopefully will add a couple more to offset the loss of Taylor and Kuhn . If we can also keep hold of the likes of Maeda and Hatate , then I see no problem in signing a few Inamuras . Provided the scouts are not still wearing the same glasses they wore when scouting Tilio and Palma !

  10. TheOriginalSadiesBhoy on

    LETS ALL DO THE HUDDLE on 6TH JULY 2025 8:00 PM

     

    or this 🙄

     

     

    ……………………..

     

    Thanks for posting. A beautiful song and a wonderful rendition by Cathy McGuire.

  11. An Dún on

    Good luck to Inamura.

     

     

    I suspect he’ll never make it but at 300K there’s little to lose.

     

     

    Kwon and Tillio at £1-1.5 million is another story. That type of money should be invested with far greater care as was the case two years ago.

     

     

    Brendan from my vantage point has had little difficulty signing off on these type of acquisitions. Just so long as we know not to pack the squad out with them.

  12. Celtic Mac on

    Of course, like every other Celtic supporter I always hope that new signings work out…..

     

    In this case I think a prayer might also be in order…..

  13. PeterLatchfordsBelly on

    Mmmm…

     

     

    Was revealing to hear from Harry Brady that we more or less paid double for Trusty, Engles and Idah last summer because of Desmond’s negotiating strategy. So wasn’t Brendan’s idea to spend £26m on those three. More like £14m, which Brady says they were available for.

     

     

    Don’t share you positive view of the apparent return to pile ‘em high and cheap Mark Lawwell cluserfeck of 2023. Who made it from that window? Kwon, Yang, Holm, Lagerbielke, Nawrocki, Tilio, Palma? Compare their impact to Idah’s from January 2024. Hopeless.

     

     

    Nygren fits the profile. Long odds this lad will make it at Celtic let alone a top 5 league. Hope he beats them.

  15. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    order…..

     

     

    PeterLatchfordsBelly on 7th July 2025 1:19 pm

     

    Mmmm…

     

     

    Was revealing to hear from Harry Brady that we more or less paid double for Trusty, Engles and Idah last summer because of Desmond’s negotiating strategy. So wasn’t Brendan’s idea to spend £26m on those three. More like £14m, which Brady says they were available for.

     

     

    ———

     

     

    Not a dig at you at all PLB ….. but this kind of Monday morning quarterback routine is fanciful, IMHO.

     

     

    Billionaires don’t routinely pay £26m for something they can get for £14m.

     

     

    I’m minded of a quote about an owner of an American Football club of yesteryear.

     

     

    “The guy throws nickels around like manhole covers”

  16. Hrvatski Jim on

    According to 67HailHail these are the expiry years for current playing staff contracts. Though, quite a few will be gone in the next few weeks.

     

     

    Of course, most players will move on 2 years before their contract expires if they do not renew but, at this time, we have much of the first team squad is contracted to 2028, 2029 or 2030. Only Kasper, who would likely be replaced by Viljami, and Daizen would be key losses in the next 2 years.

     

     

    Everyone will have their own opinion as to whether any first team player is good enough and we certainly need two who can cover each position so some first-team ready additions will be required, or we see a better immediate alternative, but, based on this analysis, I can see why this season’s recruitment will have an eye on signing player who will be given first team experience in 26-27 with a view to being regulars from 27 onwards. I always think 18 months is the time that a younger player needs in the first team squad and with some game time to show what they can do.

     

     

    At the start of most seasons, I read that the squad is weaker usually because a well-known name has left but every new season brings a few who rise in performance and those who regress. Maybe this year it will be Adam, Austin or Arnie or, who knows, Odin who establish themselves in the first team. Matt was not particularly highly rated after his first year and Nicholas was an unknown quantity until he had such a good first half of last season.

     

     

    So, I prefer to assess whether the squad is stronger or weaker at the new year rather than the new season.

     

     

     

    Celtic contracts expiring in 2026

     

    James Forrest (signed from academy)

     

    Kasper Schmeichel (signed from Anderlecht in 2024)

     

    Dane Murray (signed from academy)

     

    Johnny Kenny (signed from Sligo Rovers in 2022)

     

    Mitchel Frame (signed from academy)

     

    Sean McArdle (signed from academy)

     

    Liam Bonetig (signed from Western Sydney Wanderers in 2023)

     

     

    Celtic contracts expiring in 2027

     

    Anthony Ralston (signed from academy)

     

    Stephen Welsh (signed from academy)

     

    Daizen Maeda (signed from Yokohama F. Marinos in 2022)

     

    Adam Montgomery (signed from academy)

     

    Luke McCowan (signed from Dundee in 2024)

     

    Josh Clarke (signed from Glenavon in 2022)

     

     

    Celtic contracts expiring in 2028

     

    Callum McGregor (signed from academy)

     

    Maik Nawrocki (signed from Legia Warsaw in 2023)

     

    Liam Scales (signed from Shamrock Rovers in 2021)

     

    Gustaf Lagerbielke (signed from IF Elfsborg in 2023)

     

    Reo Hatate (signed from Kawasaki Frontale in 2022)

     

    Kwon Hyeok-kyu (signed from Busan IPark in 2023)

     

    Marco Tilio (signed from Melbourne City in 2023)

     

    Odin Thiago Holm (signed from Valarenga in 2023)

     

    Yang Hyun-jun (signed from Gangwon FC in 2023)

     

    Luis Palma (signed from Aris in 2023)

     

    Arne Engels (signed from FC Augsburg in 2024)

     

    Francis Turley (signed from academy)

     

    Ross Doohan (signed from Aberdeen in 2025)

     

     

    Celtic contracts expiring in 2029

     

    Alistair Johnston (signed from CF Montreal in 2023)

     

    Nicolas Kuhn (signed from Rapid Vienna in 2024)

     

    Cameron Carter-Vickers (signed from Tottenham Hotspur in 2022)

     

    Viljami Sinisalo (signed from Aston Villa in 2024)

     

    Paulo Bernardo (signed from SL Benfica in 2024)

     

    Adam Idah (signed from Norwich City in 2024)

     

    Auston Trusty (signed from Sheffield United in 2024)

     

    Callum Osmand (signed from Fulham in 2025)

     

     

    Celtic contracts expiring in 2030

     

    Jota (signed from Stade Rennais in 2025)

     

    Kieran Tierney (signed from Arsenal in 2025)

     

    Benjamin Nygren (signed from FC Nordsjælland in 2025)

  18. Aipple on

    TEXASTIM

     

     

    Terrible news, harrowing stories.

     

     

    Excited for trip, cheers! Few nights on Arran again as well. Family, island hopping and family.

  19. glendalystonsils on

    PETERLATCHFORDSBELLY

     

     

    I’d be surprised if an astute businessman like DD was at fault in any negotiations which resulted in paying twice what an asset was worth , but then again , football transfers are quite unlike any other business dealings . Certainly in the case of Idah , i think we were unlucky . He was well out of the picture at Norwich under the previous manager and we could probably have got him for a lot less than £9m if we’d acted quickly. But the managerial change in the middle of it all saw Norwich play hardball .

  20. celtic40me on

    I’d prefer our signings spend their first season at Celtic before going on loan, they’d develop better under our coaching staff rather than at a club with different priorities and poorer coaches. Particularly those who are coming from an alien culture, on their own, at a young age. But I’m sure that been considered, the Admira Wacker partnership has been running a couple of seasons now.

     

     

    Interesting that three of Brightons signings this summer have started less than 30 games, including one from our favorite, the K League. €35m on a barely 18 year old with fewer than 20 starts. They must have full confidence in their scouting to sign someone who’s played such little football. There are few young Japanese players still in Japan, theyre being signed earlier an earlier by European clubs so it’s important we do put homework and offer them a clear and obvious way into a career in Europe.

  21. !!Bada Bing!! on

    A player getting signed,then immediately going on loan,tells me the manager didn’t sign him.

  23. Ten Men Won The League on

    !!Bada Bing!! on 7th July 2025 2:22 pm

     

    A player getting signed,then immediately going on loan,tells me the manager didn’t sign him.

     

     

    —————————————————————————————————————-

     

     

    Or alternatively, BR won’t be here next summer, so not his problem……

  24. ziggydoc1 on

    Noticed Kwon and Tilio in the photo images of training today. Was a bit surprised to see Tilio but maybe it’s one last make or break look. Great to see KT in amongst it, alongside big Dane Murray who I hope can also stay injury free.

  25. Timbhoy163 on

    Is Tillo another player that Rodgers doesn’t rate,what did he see at training that he isn’t good enough to play for Celtic, for me Rodgers needs to give Tillo some game time judge him on the park not up at Lennoxtown.

  26. bournesouprecipe on

    a conservative £20M ( approx) incoming by July in this window,

     

     

    £16M Nicolas Kuhn

     

    £2M Gustaf Lagerbielke

     

    500K Daniel Cummings , Matthew Anderson

     

    £3M Jeremie Frimpong ( sell on clause )

     

     

    Let the buys be low and the sales be high 👍

  27. borgo67 on

    Thanks to those that responded to my post yesterday.

     

    One or two mentioned the mssm as chief culprit in creating negativity amongst us even during the good times.

     

    Even a cursory look at Celtic’bad’newsnow would confirm this.

     

    I’ve only just recently started looking at this site and apart from one or two it’s a shocker. Click bait crap .

  38. dessybhoy on

    Thanks Nicolas Kuhn for all your efforts, good luck in the rest of your career, but not against us.

  41. Hot Smoked on

    rE Kvistgaarden

     

     

    “An initial fee of £6.9million will be paid out to the Danes but the fee could rise to £7million with bonuses that have been negotiated in the deal.”

     

     

    Quite a rise !!!

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