Curtail confidence, there remains a lot to do

I have no intention of encouraging anyone to place a bet, but if you think Celtic will be crowned champions in five weeks’ time, you can make a 40% return on your money.  Bookies do not give a 40% return on capital within five weeks often, so what’s going on?

The confidence you feel after Sunday is based on some cognitive biases.  We have bossed Newco for 2.5 out of 3 games this season and there is an expectation that this trend will continue.

Also, five of Newco’s remaining seven games are away from home, whereas we have only two away games left.  On average, more points are dropped away than at home, so there’s encouragement there too.

Add in your knowledge that the Celtic squad are getting fitter and better; Callum McGregor and Reo Hatate are back, Cameron Carter-Vickers is playing, and we look as good as we have all season, and you can see the plan coming together.  So what gives with the bookies?

Bookies love trends.  They know two facts about them: punters back them to continue and they always end.  Lots happened on Sunday, but we should focus on the fact that at halftime, Newco ended a 2.5 game trend and started to cause Celtic problems.

Clement’s joy at a home draw was based on his belief that he – like you and me – knows what to expect from Celtic, and he will travel to Celtic Park with a plan he has confidence in.

Celtic are not the only side with players coming back from injury.  Sima will be fully fit the next time these teams meet; Yilmaz will return to the left back slot and Matondo will be asked to continue how he ended on Sunday.

This will allow Newco to play to their strengths as a counter-attacking side, as they did successfully away to Betis and Benfica.  If you can take a win and a draw from those games, you are entitled to be confident at Celtic Park.

Brendan Rodgers needs a plan, for that plan.  He will be preparing for it already, but you cannot just decide how a game will progress; chance, form and (of course) rogue decisions can derail the best of us.  We have a lot to do to win that game.

This leaves us looking at the away fixtures.  Celtic will visit Kilmarnock, where we have lost twice this season, compounded by a home draw.  Difficult though this game will be, I expect a win.  We are also likely to go to Paisley, scene of two comfortable wins this season.

Newco lost at Celtic Park in December, drew at Pittodrie a month earlier and lost the opening game of the season at Kilmarnock.  As well as their best European performances being away from home, they have a better domestic record away than at home.

These sentiments are why the bookies don’t particularly fancy our chances.  There remains a lot to do.