Our old friend Cognitive Dissonance was at play again last night. Hearts manager, Paolo Sergio, seemed to accept Stephen Elliot’s second minute attempt was cleared so quickly officials might not have had a chance to ascertain if it crossed the line, but he tried to reconcile his frustration at this reality by publicly adopting a position which, on reflection, he should accept is in contravention to the rules of the game.
Elliot’s attempt struck Joe Ledley, who was standing on the line with his arms stationary and by his side, before being cleared by Fraser Forster.
Sergio said, “If you don’t see the ball over the line then you should see the handball which is a penalty and a red card.”
It’s scarcely credible that the Hearts manager is unaware of the rules of the game which clearly establish that for a handball offence to be committed the player needs to deliberately use a hand or arm to play the ball, not have the ball played against his stationary hand or arm.
No one had much of a clue whether the ball had crossed the line or not until after watching multiple TV replays and even then, while I can understand the attacking team claiming a goal, TV evidence does not provide conclusive proof that the whole of the ball crossed the line.
This will no doubt be the source of Sergio’s frustration; his team could have taken the lead but didn’t. Armed with this frustration he then created a false scenario which allowed him to reconcile his feelings of grievance.
What a shower. Struggling to operate in the SPL and pay tax, disorganised team structure and afflicted by football’s Cognitive Dissonance epidemic.
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TNT
Initially, given that he had spent 8 months pouring over all of the relevant documentation and (presumably) taken expert advice, and considering that his sidekick – Betts – was a long standing professional in the domain of distressed company finance, I was convinced that Craig Whyte had a plan.
Not just any plan mind you, but a 3 dimensional model that had weighed every risk, that had factored in every eventuality, and that had a contingency to deal with each one in turn.
Have you ever seen a quincunx board? It’s a sort of bagatelle board in which a ball is dropped in at the top and makes its way down the board via a series of pins, the ball bouncing in one direction or the other at each pin, and ending up in one of 11 traps at the bottom. It is the basis of a Pascal’s Triangle, with the probability of the ball ending in a given trap well established.
I figured that Whyte had done the busines equivalent of a quincunx, taking each binary event in turn – Champions League Win/Lose, Europa League Win/Lose, Scottish Cup Win/Lose all the way to the Tax Case Win/Lose – and understood how each possible outcome along the way would impact on the business model.
With this understanding, he would then have been able to provide for the consequences of each event in the overall scheme of things.
I figured that he had seen something the rest of us were blind to: That there was a way out of this for Rangers such that both the club and Whyte would emerge positively. The revelation that he could use the Floating Charge to appoint a Receiver rather than an Adminstrator seemed to indicate that he had indeed identified something significant.
Alas, as time has progressed, it seems that there is little if any plan at all, and my view now is that he has simply taken a punt on the outcome of the tax case. He’s put down £1 against the chance that Rangers will get a positive outcome, such that if they do, he will own a substantial business, worth tens of millions of pounds, for the princely cost of a Lottery Ticket. (The Lottery odds may be better…)
In order to get into the game, he had to find the money to square the LBG debt, has done so with the Ticketus arrangement, and is fully covered to any exposure by the protection afforded by the Floating Charge.
If Rangers lose the tax case, he’s lost his bet but the borrowed money will be repaid on liquidation of the assets of the company.
His sole purpose is to get Rangers through to a Tribunal decision or else he loses his bet.
I think he was expecting the Tribunal to close in November, with a decision in January. Unfortunately, it was continued into January, and now Whyte needs to find the cash to maintain the business for a further 3 months.
At the rate Rangers burn cash each month, that is about £10M. The sale of Jelavic was curious only in so far as the cash received is not enough to get him through to April if necessary. He ought to have sold more players. To my mind, if he has no access to other short term finance, the creditors will be screwed meantime to make sure Rangers are still trading when the decision comes in. Expect more court action for debt recovery in this respect.
In short….
There was no ‘plan’.
…Whyte took a punt that Rangers might win the tax case, and his sole purpose is to see the company through to the decision. If Rangers win, he wins a £40M business. If they lose, he loses his stake but is covered in all other respects. At face value, perhaps a good gamble, but not one that has the best interests of the club at heart.
Quel dommage.
I see Sheffield United have former Rangers captain Weary Dave (aged 86 and three quarters) training with them.
Is Rangers’ loss Danny Wilson’s gain? Could old Weary have halted Celtic’s 19 (nineteen!) point turnaround.
Blades supremo (tabloid journo speak), Danny Wilson, funhnily enough, did not say everything is wonderful. He did say that they have not offered old Weary a contract and that it was a bit like when they had James Beattie there. Has he never heard of once bitten twice shy? He needs to dust down his Ian Hunter collection.
http://vault.fbi.gov/steve-jobs/steve-jobs-part-01-of-01/view
Robin
Thankfully the walls of Baird Hall don’t speak…. :>)
Pantaloon -Quiz nighting?
Anyways, this Ticketus deal, it’s like a pay day loan, except they’ve taken it out for four years wages, not four weeks.
I hope ASDA or Morrison’s get the gig, rather than Tesco, a nice bright green frontage over the ole Archie Leitch.
The Moon Bhoys
I don’t know about the ice cream and jelly jokes, but the joby jokes were unfortunately banned by Kojo.
As for Zheng Zhi – and this ain’t no joke – apparently Willie McKay has convinced Coisty that he’s available on Bosman pre-contract thingy and McKay is in negotiations with Sone Aluko to take him to Ibrox as soon as he returns from the Oriental Cup of Nations. To be honest, we couldn’t really complain Zhi he did decide to leave, considering the lack of opportunities Lenny has given him.
Gutted the St J replay not on telly, would have stayed in for that.
Anyway the stuff FPLG came out with this morning is interfering with my swotting for the quiz tomorrow night..
Btw Amad, if your lurking, I hope your going tomorrow as I wanna meet a real live spy type chap.
brimmer
TBB – are there any rules regarding the use of a companies assets to fund the takeover off said company by a third party?
DBBIA – not in the vicinity, I’m afraid. Probably just as well, given that it took me 24 hours to get to the relevant bit of that wretched song.
greenjedi says:
10 February, 2012 at 10:01
Except its more like:
40k (for various reason Rangers will never get the full capacity to sell)
* 27 (child prices etc esp in UEFA – could even be lower)
* 3
=£3.25M (approx)
About 1 months running costs
brimmer ‘kano 1000’ says:
10 February, 2012 at 10:15
“Gutted the St J replay not on telly, would have stayed in for that.”
Me too. Looks like I’m going to have to take time off work, fly up to Glasgow, hire a car and then hopefully buy a ticket from a tout at a not too rip off price. It’ll be a lot of time and expense but Ian Black could be fit and playing so it’ll be more than worth it.
Just for you The Moon Bhoys
Carlos the ice-cream man’s van is parked at the side of the road. Lights flashing, music playing, a big queue of excited kids stretches down the street. But there’s no sign of Carlos.
A copper walking down the road wonders what is going on. “Where is Carlos?, Why is he not dishing out the ice-cream?”
He goes over to the van and peers over the high counter.
On the floor he spots Carlos. He’s lying very still covered in chocolate sauce, strawberry sauce, nuts, hundreds and thousands and those little jelly bits.
“Get back kids,” he shouts.
Moving away so the bemused kids cannot overhear him he gets on the radio to the police station.
“Sarge, get someone down here quick,” he stutters, “It’s Carlos the ice-cream man… He’s topped himself.”
HH
On FF you have Mark Dingwall telling his denizens that even if Rangers are liquidated and a newco started up they will not lose their titles and history. The reasoning is apparently we have had our company name changed when Fergus saved us and we kept our history. That is his level of understanding.
Mind boggling stupidity. There is no point when you have vessels of that density leading them…..
Rogue
No, there aren’t. the so called ‘leveraged buy out’ has been all the rage for a decade or more.
There is a however an extensive legal code on wrongful trading. You’ll recall Martin Bain’s counsel stating in court that the old Board had taken expert advice on the sale of season tickets for this season, such that the interests of the creditors – season ticket holders – were protected in the event of an insolvency brought about by the tax case.
There’s the clue as regards Whyte’s pending challenge from the Insolvency Service – he sold 4 (FOUR) years of season tickets fully cognisant of the probability that there would be no future seasons of the tax case goes badly.
That’s the type of behaviour that gives a girl a bad reputation…
Craig Whyte Business Plan File Cabinet
MWD
Something for the weekend…
Instant jelly
1 packet jelly crystals of desired flavour
1/2 litre vanilla icecream
1 1/2 cups cake chopped into small cubes
1 bar cadbury chocolate (plain)
1 tbsp curd/yogurt
4-5 drop lemon juice
few glace cherries to decorate
1 tsp sugar
Boil 1 cup water, add jelly crystals and stir. Take off flame. Add 1 tsp sugar and stir. Add hot jelly to softened icecream. Beat in a bowl over tray of icecubes. Stir till thick like thick shake. Add curds and lemon juice and stir again.Pour into a transparent bowl. Fold in the cake cubes carefully. Set in fridge, when almost set grate chocolate and sprinkle on top. Decorate with cherries.
HH
greenjedi
I accept the 5.25 mill. but say 20% for expences and 20% vat [ I know ] takes the figure down to 3.15 mill which is less than 1 months running costs which are 3.2 mill.
The 5.25 mill would be CL games, the EL would not gives as high attendances.
ernie
The futures market, never thought of that, genius :>)
TBB
thank you kindly for the detailed response. A well thought out viewpoint, and given his history, the “punt” theory is a strong one.
I was wondering though what do you think he meant last night with this comment
” the shareholders and season ticket holders are the lifeblood of the Club and their interests would be looked after, no matter the outcome”
What outcome can there be that could possibly make that true?
.
Conjunctivitis.com
A site for Sore Eyes..
Summa
Thats more like it! Great stuff guys, keep them comin…
TWISTS N TURNS 0914
Excellent piece of work by Keevins.
I know it makes a change,but credit where it’s due,and thanks for highlighting it.
SuperSutton says:
10 February, 2012 at 06:49
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
If your still around, all I can say Is that the jelly & ice cream brigade ignore your post….
At Their Peril!!!!
You have been warned!!!!
Hail! Hail!
RogueLeader says:
10 February, 2012 at 10:22
On FF you have Mark Dingwall telling his denizens that even if Rangers are liquidated and a newco started up they will not lose their titles and history. The reasoning is apparently we have had our company name changed when Fergus saved us and we kept our history. That is his level of understanding.
Mind boggling stupidity. There is no point when you have vessels of that density leading them…..
………….
Thats like saying a woman who marries a widower automatically take on the history of the dead wife!!!
TBB – I always found that bit curious as I am sure of you went to a bank, got an unsecured loan for a heap of dosh in full knowledge that you were about to declare bankruptcy and had no intention of repaying it, that the bank would have several recourses open. Most of them probably involving the Police.
Moonbeams – Topper!
TNT – Beats the hell of of me. I’d file it under B for bollox.
Greenjedi – sorry my reply comes across a lot more confrontational than I meant it to. Certain parts of the UEFA income would are guaranteed as well, so there would have been the ability to gain an advance based on that, only about £1M though.
BOBBY MURDOCH’S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS says:
10 February, 2012 at 10:32
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Hear, Hear!
Hail! Hail!
Weeminger
no probs, but I was basing my figures on the CL and I’d guess that Whyte would have charged the maximum price he could get away with and not put any concession prices.
Rogue – Yip, that’s about the size of it. Such arrangements have come before the courts many times before.
I think the departure of Betts from Team Whyte is perhaps significant in this respect.
BOBBY MURDOCH’S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS says:
10 February, 2012 at 10:32
TWISTS N TURNS 0914
Excellent piece of work by Keevins.
I know it makes a change,but credit where it’s due,and thanks for highlighting it.
A shocking piece of brown nosing from Keevins
He’s trying to make sure he gets the big interview with treble winning manager Neil Lennon
Continue to ignore him Neil next season he will return to favouring newco Rankers and laying in the boot to you and Celtic
Ciao——
Cold and wet -way down south.
Spirit raised by the news that The Insolvency Service has been invited to the party.
Has someone been greedily ambitious enough to have pretended to have something in order to do something that they would otherwise not have been allowed to do ?
Which Hun will earn a few bob from selling postcards of whose hanging ?
” And the only sound that’s left.
After the ambulances go.
Is Cinderella sweeping up on Desolation Row. “..
Anyhows back to our game tomorrow
TOMORROW IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT GAME OF THE SEASON SO FAR!!!!!!!
vale bhoy says:
10 February, 2012 at 08:56
SuperSutton
What did the Christians do when the Colosseum shut & the gladiators were no more?
———————————————————————————–
Sorry, I don’t know. But I’d be interested if you could enlighten me.
Assuming that we are the Christians and they are the gladiators, it’s not so much about what the Christians do, but what the gladiators do. If the gladiators hung around bars in Bridgeton and plotted to ambush the Christians as they made their way home from the place of worship then the analogy is valid.
Fellow Tims,
not posted for a while but still a very happy lurker.
Anyway, I have just had a bit if time to myself so I decided to read a few of the old articles our friend Phil Macgiollabhain has written on his excellent website. The main point that jumped out at me from reading one of his articles is that we too could have been using these Employee Benefit Trust’s that are causing Rangers (£49m worth) of their problems just now had it not been for Brian Quinn. It was Brian’s foresight that saved our club from using these ‘tax-efficient’ (ho ho ho) EBT’s, so I just want to thank Brian for his foresight in not leading us down the same road to oblivion. Oh, and a special thanks must also go to that man McCann for also having the the foresight for getting a man with the business brains of Brian on board in the first place. I for one can’t wait for the next few weeks and months to unravel.
One Neil Lennon.
HH
EBT CSC
Forster
Matthews Mastorovic Wilson Mulgrew
Forrest Brown Wanyama Ledley Samaras
Stokes
Give Rogne a wee break and give Stokes a game
Word seems to be spreading about the forthcoming party.
About 50 seconds in … http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rK3s_BP9kE
TBB at 10:09
Alas?
The pain of the LL about the goal that never was is
evident for all to see, a rule change is surely required.
Would it not drive them bammy if the new goal line
technology’s first call was a 94th min winner for us at
the bigot dome. Cue cries to abolish technology in
favour of the ref having the final shout.
Oh I feel their pain.
Keep winning Neil that is all.