Drift in player development strategy

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Yang had just turned 21 when he arrived at Celtic from Gangwon in South Korea in July 2023.  He had made 62 starts in senior football but Celtic scouts had been on the case for months.  Ange Postecoglou was of the opinion that if the club didn’t move that summer, we would miss the opportunity to take him.

The player’s portfolio was handed to Brendan Rodgers when he took control, just two weeks before Yang signed.  It was a low-risk deal for a young player who would need to be developed, but whom the scouting team thought had huge potential.

Roll on 20 months and Yang has 10 Champions League appearances an assist against Bayern Munich under his belt and against Aberdeen last night provided more evidence of what happens when you craft a development path for a player.

A week after Yang arrived in Glasgow, Kwon Hyuk-gyu (then 22) followed.  Kwon has yet to play for Celtic but enjoyed rave reviews on loan at St Mirren last season, and has done enough to impress at Hibs this term to bring himself into the South Korea squad.  Korea are currently 23rd in the Fifa rankings, 22 places above Scotland.

Speaking last week, the South Korea manager told local press he had met Yang and Kwon on a recent trip to Europe and both were in his plans.

Marco Tillio, then 20, was another who arrived that summer and another who has yet to play for Celtic, apart from a 28-minute cameo in a 1-1 draw with Motherwell. He has continued his development on loan at Melbourne City and scored a peach in the Melbourne derby at the weekend.

A week after Kwon arrived, Gus Lagerbielke, then 23, came in from Elfsborg in Sweden.  With substitute appearances, we have seen him 10 times in a Celtic shirt, including a win at Ibrox and a scoring win against Feyenoord in the Champions League.

Others arrived that season.  Some (Bernardo, Kuhn) are clear successes.  Iwata moved on at breakeven cost, and found an environment at Birmingham which has allowed him to flourish.  Louis Palma promised more than he delivered, is now on loan at Olympiacos and could eventually leave at a profit.

The development path has been closed to Odin Holm (20 when he joined but off to the MLS on loan this month) and Maik Nawrocki, who seems to have been given no roadmap.

The summer of 2023 was one of transition.  It was setup for Ange Postecoglou by Mark Lawwell, before Brendan’s appointment.  Brendan had little time to make assessments.  He gave the green light to all who were signed, and brought in loanees Nat Phillips and then Adam Idah from his own network.

The recruitment of young players with elite potential and their subsequent development is where we have to be as a club.  It is (genuinely) great to sign known quantities at their peak (Kieran), even if the reality does not match (Nat).  It will help “Beat the Rangers” and fulfil all our short term aspirations, if that’s what your thing is. But you and me are not here for the short term.

How many elites will we get from signing players like Yang, Kuhn, Iwata, Bernardo, Kwon, Holm, Tillio, Palma and Nawrocki?  Or put it another way, how many will we lose money on, not even serious money?

It is a low risk, high reward strategy.  It beats the hell out of signing players in their mid-20s with no appreciable value to earn and in time, we should only get better at it.  Clubs everywhere are doubling down on data, learning from others and making it harder to find inefficiencies in the market.

This season, only Viljami Sinisalo met this criteria.  Arne is also a development prospect but of a different cost magnitude.  How many elites will we get from Viljami?  I feel good about Champions League qualification prospects in August and expect us to win the league.  But the drift in strategy is a concern.

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  1. Well done Quadrophenian.

     

     

    Jimtim

     

    I got that off Dena ex of these pages.

     

    He should also seek out Ballymena Csc,its a well known supporters club.

     

    HH

  2. A cheerful article after a 5-1 victory against 3rd placed Aberdeen. How often can Paul revisit this subject matter? It is getting pretty repetitive.

     

    He also suggests he is speaking on our behalf (“but you and me are not here for the short term”). As far as I can tell, vast majority of the CQN brethren do not share his views on this matter. We want a balance of experience and youth, of quality and promise. Only with that can we hope to do ok in Europe.

  3. A turd polishing exercise trying to put a positive slant on the disastrous transfer window of the summer of 2023. A bit of how dare Brendan want experienced players when we can give him cheap punts.

     

    From the 2023 intake only Bernardo has been a success.

     

    The best thing to come form the window was the sacking of Mark Lawwell, who lets be honest only got the recruitment gig because of his surname.

  4. A. Trusty imo is from the same mould as jullian, starfelt, Philips , ok when under no pressure but up agains physical limited ability opponents they struggle to cope , this weekends game at paisley will be a test as they are a big physical team.

  5. Hoop hoop Hooray on

    There has to be a mix. The problem with the 2023 window was we only signed prospects. 9 of them from memory, Rather than sign players, prospects or otherwise, for the needs of the team, it was a scattergun approach in the hope one might be a diamond. How the hell can you integrate that many prospects into the team at one time. That is not only unfair on the manager but also on the players.

     

     

    We need a mix with 2 or 3 quality prospects a year a la Engels ( who is looking more and more like a rolls Royce) and Bernardo for example.

     

     

    As players move on they should be replaced with better quality ‘prospects’ as well as experience to help them bed in.

     

     

    There’s more money to be made from Europe than we can make in taking a punt on signings if we get our strategy right and there are signs that we are getting there now. I think Brendan in his development of Engels Kühn and Yang as well as his performances in Europe has earned the right to call the shots on what is required in terms of recruitment for his team.

     

     

    Meanwhile it’s no surprise kwon Lagerbielke Tilio Holm are out on loan. All for inferior teams than ourselves. They just couldn’t all be accommodated. Iwata has found his level in league one in England.

     

     

    IBWT

  6. But Paul; is our strategy really drifting, or is it now in better/more balanced perspective, given our (almost) unassailable position at the top of the Scotch league, and restored reputation at Europe’s biggest table ?

     

     

    You seem to suggest player development is the only holy grail or KPI for being a Celtic manager. I guess BR has his own KPIs, namely, to take a team as far in Europe as poss. If he’s given the Luke Shaws and the Diego Laxalt (for eg) types, that’s not going to take you as far as the Arne Engels and Jeff Schlupps of the game IMO.

     

     

     

    Also, btw, I watched the whole of that Melb City 2 v Victory 2 game where Tilio scored early then Tilio toiled to make any kind of impression the rest of his time on the field.

     

     

    He – like Danny Arzani – don’t have what Celtic need. And I doubt it can be coached into them either.

     

     

    However, the kid Segecic at Sydney FC IS worth a look if we’re rummaging in the cheap and cheerful bin. HH

  7. Back to this after winning 5.1 being 16points clear with 10 matches to go in the league, having had a brutal several months of fixtures, instead big up Mark Lawwell, who writes these leaders now? Who is Mark Lawwell employed by now?

     

    Jude Bonnar came on last night someone who has a good size has a great left foot , the manager said is a good fit for how we play, I’d rather give him the chance than Tillio who has gone back to Australia playing at his level.

  8. Majestic Hartson on

    Those who have a dodgy box/firestick –

     

     

    Do you need to get a VPN for this to work? I’ve been offered one for £50 a year but need to get a VPN which is about £10 a month.

     

     

    Wondered if that was the best way. 🤷‍♂️

  9. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Iwata moved on at breakeven cost, and found an environment at Birmingham which has allowed him to flourish. ”

     

    —————

     

    If we are recruiting players who are capable of performing in the Champions League it would be a bit worrying if they weren’t able to hack it in the English third division!

     

    Stick Palma into the middle of the three in a 4-2-3-1 and he might do a decent job for somebody but he was never going to work in a 4-3-3.

     

    As for our previous recruitment team, tanent-spotters of that calibre must be in high demand. They will have their pick of top clubs all over Europe. No way we could realistically hope to keep them long-term.

  10. Afternoon…

     

     

    “It is a low risk, high reward strategy. It beats the hell out of signing players in their mid-20s with no appreciable value to earn and in time, we should only get better at it. Clubs everywhere are doubling down on data, learning from others and making it harder to find inefficiencies in the market.

     

     

    ‘Fraid I’ve got to disagree…

     

     

    We played this “moneyball” strategy for over a decade with mixed results.

     

     

    Yes the summer of ’23 was particularly bad, and put the death knell into the “model”, yet look at a “good” window ten years earlier.

     

     

    Virgil van Dijk – Brilliant signing*

     

    Nir Bitton – Club stalwart, good utility player

     

     

    Teemu Pukki – lastminute dot com haggling,** he was never properly developed at Celtic

     

     

    Amido Baldé

     

    Steven Mouyokolo

     

    Derk Boerrigter

     

     

    ^^ Words fail me ^^

     

     

    We have “lost” over 100mn on development players, I’d suggest that for Celtic that is serious money.

     

     

    Not to mention we failed to get through the UCL play-offs when the strategy was up and running with the exception of the two times BR&CO got us there.

     

     

    How much did that cost us?

     

     

    So far, we have made a profit on every window since Ange went, so it’s not a case of losing money by getting experience in.

     

     

    Kyogo proved you can get quality into Scotland at a “good” age, get them a good Celtic career, UCL experience, a large trophy haul and make a profit on transfers.

     

     

    The idea that Celtic came across a moneyball strategy that was equivalent to the goose that lay golden eggs is a nonsense.

     

     

    The only thing that our great “moneyball strategy” and the goose have in common is they are both mythical.

     

     

    Our recruitment strategy is not drifting, it is firming up to be fit for purpose, and as that purpose is UCL football, that is quute the thing.

     

     

    * Did we see him play long enough for Celtic? Did we get enough money for him? We got a payout from Southampton and Liverpool.

     

     

    ** We stayed up all night to get Pukki… (c) BSR

     

     

    Hail Hail

  11. Oh, and BTW, we won 5-1 last night without playing particularly well.

     

     

    In the first 15 minutes the entire defence (KS included) and Calmac gave Aberdeen chances to score before we actually tried a wee bit of football.

     

     

    Trusty was an nightmare against a not particularly aggressive forward. A big worry.

     

     

    Scales came on and didn’t impressive at LB.

     

     

    Schlupp ?

  12. The team looks worn out barring Daizen and Engels who was galloping everywhere last night, dropping to 1 game a week will hopefully improve their fitness stamina and strength as we will have time midweek to properly condition and recover.

  13. Prestonpans bhoys on

    “But the drift in strategy is a concern.”

     

     

    What’s the concern here ? Is our transfer windows operating at a deficit in trading; is our salary structure out of control and incurring escalating costs?

  14. PRESTONPANS BHOYS @ 12:45 PM,

     

     

    Exactly…

     

     

    Players that were move on to help our balance of payments, since Ange went…MF Aaron Mooy

     

     

    FW Jota

     

     

    GK Conor Hazard

     

     

    DF Osaze Urhoghide

     

     

    GK Vasilis Barkas

     

     

    DF Carl Starfelt

     

     

    DF Bosun Lawal

     

     

    MF Ismaila Soro

     

     

    FW Albian Ajeti

     

     

    MF Yosuke Ideguchi

     

     

    MF Kwon Hyeok-kyu

     

     

    FW Marco Tilio

     

     

    FW Mikey Johnston

     

     

    MF David Turnbull

     

     

    FW Liel Abada

     

     

    GK Joe Hart

     

     

    FW Sead Hakšabanović

     

     

    FW Rocco Vata

     

     

    FW Oh Hyeon-gyu

     

     

    GK Benjamin Siegrist

     

     

    DF Bosun Lawal

     

     

    MF Daniel Kelly

     

     

    DF Yuki Kobayashi

     

     

    MF Matt O’Riley

     

     

    DF Gustaf Lagerbielke

     

     

    MF Tomoki Iwata

     

     

    MF Liam Shaw

     

     

    DF Stephen Welsh

     

     

    MF Odin Holm

     

     

    DF Alexandro Bernabei

     

     

    FW Kyogo

     

     

    Hail Hail

  15. bournesouprecipe on

    Paul67

     

     

    It wasn’t Brendan Rodgers that jeopardised money signing Tilio, Holm, Nawrocki, Kwon and Co. Where was BR to have developed these guys?

     

     

    He didn’t buy them in the first place they were daisy chaining in to Lennoxtown whilst Dermot Desmond was preparing BR new contract. The sooner you confine the summer transfer window of 2023 to the bin, the better, BR clearly has.

     

     

    Most of the support have moved on, like the loanees, spread across the globe the players were such developing talent we haven’t even sold any of them, on a permanent deal, Bernabei was already here.

     

     

    New manager comes in, recruitment process changed Celtic go 16 clear towards title two, and we squeeze Jude Bonnar in for a debut.

  16. Player development is key to our long term future, but how about more focus on own players.

     

    I wonder how many of the Vata , Doak and Kelly’s may have stayed around if we hadn’t signed these so called development players?

     

    When a young player has the choice of playing versus Bonnyrigg Rose or Championship team reserves and knows we have just signed a project in his position etc., is it any wonder they leave.

     

    And, that’s before wages enters the conversation

     

    Also, I would suggest redirecting the money spent on projects towards domestic souting ,coaching,and youth wages may get a better return than the likely £2/3 m wasted on Tillio/Holm etc.

     

    One final point, when we claim we broke even on a project, does that include scouting costs, legal time etc?

  17. BOURNESOUPRECIPE @ 12:53 PM,

     

     

    Totally agree…

     

     

    We seen presser after presser in the summer of ’23 with Brendan Rodgers stating what his goals were and what sort of player he needed.

     

     

    It was not the players the recruitment team got in, that’s for sure.

     

     

    Here are the players they got in that fitted the strategy, before the great drift of Januay ’24.

     

     

    Sead Hakšabanović

     

     

    Oliver Abildgaard

     

     

    Yuki Kobayashi

     

     

    Alistair Johnston

     

     

    Tomoki Iwata

     

     

     Oh Hyeon-gyu

     

     

    Tomoki Iwata

     

     

    Odin Thiago Holm

     

     

    Marco Tilio

     

     

    Yang Hyun-jun

     

     

    Kwon

     

     

    Maik Nawrocki

     

     

    Gustaf Lagerbielke

     

     

    Luis Palma

     

     

    Nat Phillips

     

     

    Paulo Bernardo

     

     

    Hail Hail

  18. Life is about balance so is football. Celtic should always have a core group of experienced players and another group of upstarts. The longterm plan only works if the short term plan works (winning).

     

     

    Lots of money to be made developing and selling young players around 22 to 24 years old. There is still a lot of money to be made by selling proven 25 to 29 year olds (30/ 40% less fee) but with the upside of better more conistant results.

     

     

    We dont need a million punts we need to identify a small group of youngish players very few years who can come in and develop and we need a pathway for our own young players I.e., b team, development loans or straight into first team.

     

     

    We should also have a strategy offcthe pitch to maximise income and fan experience at the footie and beyond I.e., museum, hotel etc.

  19. Apologies, Nat Philips was a temporary loan due to an injury crisis, should not be on that list.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  20. And, oh, incidentally, Beaton was at his cheatin’ best last night.

     

     

    Booked Calmac, OK possibly deserved, but, proceeded to award fouls for similar offences by Aberdeen players whom he never booked.

     

     

    On occasion, he played advantage but didn’t book or even talk to the offended once play stopped.

     

     

    Did VAR check every Celtic goal?

     

     

    Is that just a rule now?

  21. MAJESTIC HARTSON, no you don’t need a vpn . £50 is about the going rate . You can get a free vpn but I would be reluctant to do that. Decent prices with cash back sites for vpns, surfshark Nord etc.

  22. Loving Celtic , the team performances , Brendan it’s great to be a Celtic supporter and at the age of 70 , I’ve seen many shades of Celtic over the years and I definitely think this is one of our most professional and consisted squad – however, my hearts sinks when I see the Green Brigade linking us back to the IRA and terrorist organizations and terrorists.

     

     

     

    We need to offload all that baggage and the club need to work harder at stopping such displays.

     

     

    All banners , flags should be approved by the club and if not approved removed .

     

     

    Doing nothing is acceptance of this behavior and it will come back to haunt us , unless we act.

  23. transfer market tells me celtic spent 23m euros in summer 2023.

     

     

    but took in 43m euros.

     

     

    so what if half the recruits dont become celtic players, we just keep stacking them up and moving them on.

     

     

    some will be at a loss, but the strategy doesnt chance,

     

     

    as to last night, aberdeen had 1 shot on target, they scored with it, casper never made a save the whole game, so what that the dons came and actually prseed some, it is a good workout.

     

     

    we scored 5 …………… 4 different scorers, 4 different assisters,

     

     

    i suppose the angus ogs just need something to moan about

     

     

    win another 5 and league is done.

     

     

    as to the crowd last night, dearie me. thousands, and it was thousands dont turn up.

     

     

    thousands more start leaving around 70 minutes,

     

     

    maybe some players should ask to leave early, to beat the traffic.

  24. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Good analysis Pablo.

     

     

    Respect.

     

     

    Not fully on board with every word but intelligently compiled and thought provoking nonetheless.

     

     

    For example

     

     

    “It is a low risk, high reward strategy. It beats the hell out of signing players in their mid-20s with no appreciable value to earn and in time, we should only get better at it.”

     

     

    I agree. Kinda.

     

     

    Two points though …

     

     

    1. If you insert “financial” after low and high? I’d say your bang on.

     

     

    But there is another associated cost.

     

     

    Time, energy and effort spent by coaching team (and tha manager) with larger number of players of more widely varying degrees of ability at any given time.

     

     

    Makes the job of achieving cohesion and consistency of performance at a high level all the more difficult.

     

     

    Case in point 13 months ago.

     

     

    Brendan ditched the fringe players, focused his coaching on a smaller group of players each doing more heavy lifting – and inched us towards a double in May (which looked unlikely in January).

     

     

    The above not sustainable long term of course.

     

     

    2. Anyone who deals with an accountant, or investment broker or IFA will be familiar with the old “you need a balanced portfolio” line.

     

     

    Same applies to our recruitment, IMHO.

     

     

    If the largest component of our “portfolio” is the model you describe?

     

     

    Fine with me BUT there has to be room for other types of player acquisition (investment) too …

     

    … which other posters have highlighted quite eloquently already including.

     

     

    – better young prospects who cost more

     

    – good prospects in mid-20s who cost same or less

     

    – known quantities in mid to late 20s on freedom of contract who might earn a bit more

     

    – guys in early 30s who’ll cost nothing to buy and will fill a hole for a year

  25. Andrena on 26th February 2025 1:19 pm

     

     

    Nelson Mandela was a terrorist according to some, fact.

  26. bournesouprecipe on

    CHAIRBHOY

     

     

    Academy players not particularly up to date but a snapshot, at Celtic. At present Calum McGregor made it at Celtic. Here’s some that left, Brendan Rodgers Tier One manager does what all the big clubs do, develop and buy star players, very, very few Academy players make the big time, lots have decent careers

     

     

    Liam Morrison:

     

    Joined Bayern August 2019

     

    Joined QPR June 2024

     

     

    Josh Adam:

     

    Joined Man City June 2020

     

    Joined Wrexham September 2024

     

     

    Barry Hepburn:

     

    Joined Bayern August 2020

     

    Released September 2024

     

     

    Liam Hughes:

     

    Joined Liverpool Jan 2021

     

    Joined FC Haka Jan 2024.

     

     

    Cameron Harper:

     

    Joined New York Red Bulls Mar 2021

     

    Still plays in MLS.

     

     

    Vincent Angelini:

     

    Joined Watford July 2021

     

    Joined Al Riyadh September 2024

     

    Awaiting a professional debut.

     

     

    Leo Hjelde:

     

    Joined Leeds August 2021

     

    Joined Sunderland January 2024

     

     

    Ben Doak:

     

    Joined Liverpool June 2022

     

    Joined Middlesbrough on loan August 2024

     

     

    Frankie Deane:

     

    Joined Burnley Aug 2022

     

    Released July 2024

     

     

    Karamoko Dembele:

     

    Joined Brest August 2022

     

    Joined QPR on loan July 2024

     

     

    Rory Mahady:

     

    Joined Leeds United Sept 2022

     

    Awaiting his EFL debut.

     

     

    Aidan Borland:

     

    Joined Aston Villa Aug 2023

     

    Awaiting his EPL debut

     

     

    Rocco Vata:

     

    Joined Watford July 2024

     

    4 goals in 23 appearances for Watford.

     

     

    Daniel Kelly:

     

    Joined Millwall August 2024

     

    Played 18 minutes of football.

     

     

     

    HH

  27. bournesouprecipe on

    A big day in Scottish Football (apparently) blanket headline coverage of Barry Ferguson’s Sevco who is three points and four goals worse off than when he took the job.

  28. Dexter P. Bampot on

    The GB banner last night was a disgrace. Imagine Ibrox had a banner to a perpetrator of a loyalist atrocity?! We would rightly be aghast. And, to think it came on the back of the GB ‘apology’ to other fans.

     

    Let’s call a spade what it is. The vast majority of Celtic supporters do not condone or support or stand with the GB’s tribute last night. The GB have already walked the club into countless admonishments and fines. They were previously banned from the ground. They almost cost Celtic fans in Munich the chance to witness history.

     

    The GB can be positive and have helped create superb tifos and in-game atmospheres. However, last night was another demonstration of their self-entitlement. They are no more important than any other fans.

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