Drift in player development strategy

Yang had just turned 21 when he arrived at Celtic from Gangwon in South Korea in July 2023.  He had made 62 starts in senior football but Celtic scouts had been on the case for months.  Ange Postecoglou was of the opinion that if the club didn’t move that summer, we would miss the opportunity to take him.

The player’s portfolio was handed to Brendan Rodgers when he took control, just two weeks before Yang signed.  It was a low-risk deal for a young player who would need to be developed, but whom the scouting team thought had huge potential.

Roll on 20 months and Yang has 10 Champions League appearances an assist against Bayern Munich under his belt and against Aberdeen last night provided more evidence of what happens when you craft a development path for a player.

A week after Yang arrived in Glasgow, Kwon Hyuk-gyu (then 22) followed.  Kwon has yet to play for Celtic but enjoyed rave reviews on loan at St Mirren last season, and has done enough to impress at Hibs this term to bring himself into the South Korea squad.  Korea are currently 23^rd in the Fifa rankings, 22 places above Scotland.

Speaking last week, the South Korea manager told local press he had met Yang and Kwon on a recent trip to Europe and both were in his plans.

Marco Tillio, then 20, was another who arrived that summer and another who has yet to play for Celtic, apart from a 28-minute cameo in a 1-1 draw with Motherwell. He has continued his development on loan at Melbourne City and scored a peach in the Melbourne derby at the weekend.

A week after Kwon arrived, Gus Lagerbielke, then 23, came in from Elfsborg in Sweden.  With substitute appearances, we have seen him 10 times in a Celtic shirt, including a win at Ibrox and a scoring win against Feyenoord in the Champions League.

Others arrived that season.  Some (Bernardo, Kuhn) are clear successes.  Iwata moved on at breakeven cost, and found an environment at Birmingham which has allowed him to flourish.  Louis Palma promised more than he delivered, is now on loan at Olympiacos and could eventually leave at a profit.

The development path has been closed to Odin Holm (20 when he joined but off to the MLS on loan this month) and Maik Nawrocki, who seems to have been given no roadmap.

The summer of 2023 was one of transition.  It was setup for Ange Postecoglou by Mark Lawwell, before Brendan’s appointment.  Brendan had little time to make assessments.  He gave the green light to all who were signed, and brought in loanees Nat Phillips and then Adam Idah from his own network.

The recruitment of young players with elite potential and their subsequent development is where we have to be as a club.  It is (genuinely) great to sign known quantities at their peak (Kieran), even if the reality does not match (Nat).  It will help “Beat the Rangers” and fulfil all our short term aspirations, if that’s what your thing is. But you and me are not here for the short term.

How many elites will we get from signing players like Yang, Kuhn, Iwata, Bernardo, Kwon, Holm, Tillio, Palma and Nawrocki?  Or put it another way, how many will we lose money on, not even serious money?

It is a low risk, high reward strategy.  It beats the hell out of signing players in their mid-20s with no appreciable value to earn and in time, we should only get better at it.  Clubs everywhere are doubling down on data, learning from others and making it harder to find inefficiencies in the market.

This season, only Viljami Sinisalo met this criteria.  Arne is also a development prospect but of a different cost magnitude.  How many elites will we get from Viljami?  I feel good about Champions League qualification prospects in August and expect us to win the league.  But the drift in strategy is a concern.

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