We all have our prejudices and mine kicks in when Celtic sign a player with a high profile in England. They usually come with zero development opportunity and they have all been scouted every time a ball bounced within five meters of them. We do very well when monitoring the development squad at Fulham and almost as well with the same cohort at Manchester City, but for the most part, Celtic need to cast the net wider than their English counterparts.
Azerbaijan is just about as far from the regular haunts of English scouts as you can get. If a Columbian striker can settle there, he can settle in Scotland. There are no guarantees any new signing will work, we know for sure some will not. Football is a numbers game, get the right profile in, in the correct volume and at the right price, and you have a chance of succeeding.
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OMG I’ m first here ….Woo Hoo !!!!
With all due respect I totally disagree with this…
“Football is a numbers game, get the right profile in, in the correct volume and at the right price, and you have a chance of succeeding.
You need expertise, you need multiple approaches and if you have the football resources of Lennoxtown you must concentrate of a small first team squad – where each player has proven attributes – that first team group can be given the techniques, conditioning, training and drilled in tactics that is required….
Martin O’Neill when he first returned couldn’t believe how few players at Lennoxtown got Celtic – that is absolutely key to our special club.
The “numbers game” is a business, not a football strategy.
State of the art clubs utilise data analytics and football expertise to hone down the numbers…
Hail Hail
What happened at last night’s Irish meeting?
vale bhoy on 7th July 2026 2:05 pm
What happened at last night’s Irish meeting?
Shooders were Shrugged……………………………………….
If Duran signs, i wish him every success, but lets not ignore that when he went to Quarabag, it wasnt just EPL scouts, he was clearly outside our scout’s orbit.
When we sign a guy like this whose value has grown exponentially in a year ( similar to Tounetke) it would be good to think there was some analysis ( not a witch hunt) on why we missed him at €300k, and what have we learned.
I would do similar with younger players like Lennon Miller, Hickey, Bowie etc.
In a country of only 6 million, why did we miss them?
I know two of them were at Celtic as youths, so why did they leave and what could we have done differently?
KINGLUBO @ 1:25 pm,
I loved big Bobo but after watching his highlights on You tube, never realised just what a great football player he was, fandabadozy”
Absolute legend – scored six goals in his first season with us, imagine with the other goal involvments and goals saved, what an absolute colossus he was for us….
Hail Hail
😊👍
https://x.com/hispano_studies/status/2074267978255011931?s=20
“If a Columbian striker can settle there (Azerbaijan), he can settle in Scotland”
You nailed it with this IMHO Paul.
Recent poster alluded (reasonably) to Duran’s lack of caps.
His profile would increase markedly as a Celtic player.
PS – usual caveats
1. Don’t know if we are signing the guy
2. Until 2 weeks ago I was blissfully unaware of his existence … so no idea of his ability. He’s played in the Champions League … so might be able to tie his bootlaces.
CHAIRBHOY on 7TH JULY 2026 1:59 PM
“State of the art clubs utilise data analytics and football expertise to hone down the numbers…”
Whos that then?
I’m not the expert Chairbhoy seems to have become (after being an arch-cynic of the whole idea), but arent Brighton and Brentford considered to be at the cutting edge of data-analytics? Google has them both as having huge squads.
USG have 31 players in the squad according to Google
Atalanta have 30, which is down from previous seasons
FAVOURITE UNCLE
Hahaha
celtic40me on 7th July 2026 2:41 pm
CHAIRBHOY
Well the trail blazers in the UK were Liverpool, after no doubt someway attached to Fenway saw a Brad Pitt movie:))
Of course, the effectiveness waxes and wanes and how much the clubs depend on it changes.
Interesting that there are several multiple club approaches…
Liverpool FC
The MCG
Brentford
Jamestown Analytics
Molde
Etc
Of course, as I say, multiple approaches seem the most beneficial way to recruit and you cannot beat in-house knowledge or expertise…
Bodø/Glimt taking advatage of Norway’s huge investment in football for instance
Hail Hail
“Football is a numbers game, get the right profile in, in the correct volume and at the right price, and you have a chance of succeeding.”
And there it is in a nutshell. Everything that is wrong with our recruitment strategy, The old scattergun approach in the hope one can get a substantial ROI
Clash City Bhoy @ 2:15pm
Kinda get your point about finding these guys earlier
… but actually don’t fully agree.
First – if we’d bought this guy for €300k from the Portuguese 2nd division …
… remarks would appear soon enough on here about cheap skating and a lack of ambition.
More broadly though?
A guy purchased for €15m three years after being acquired for €300k ?
Hasn’t improved fifty fold as a player.
What has happened in 3 years though ..
His profile has increased as has the body of performance data evidence that he MIGHT be able to perform in an environment or league where €15m priced players are the baseline.
I know many Celtic fans (me too) dislike talk of where we are in the pecking order.
But, economically, we are where we are.
Clubs across various countries …
(the numbers of each are reducing !!!)
… can take a player from costing €300k to €1m to being valued at €3-5m more quickly than ever before.
Which is were we come in (Duran, Kuhn, Tounetki).
Our mission – should we choose to accept it – is to turn that player into a guy others are prepared to pay €15m for.
Then its up to us (depending on circumstances) to decide if we sell up or retain his value to the team.
Getting harder and harder.
Past 18 months alone … the speed of transfer and scale of uplifted fee paid for young African lads who’ve barely been in Scandinavia for barely a year?
Frightening.
Celtic40me @ 2:47 pm,
With all due respect you seem to have the same issue as the Celtic Board and Paul67.
You can’t simply look at another successful club’s template and import that to your club…
Always the lazy way with you guys.
Celtic do not have anything like the set up Brighton and Brentford have…
Even then Brighton use outside analytics who cost scale and effectiveness is improved by multiple clubs and multiple sports utiling their expertise.
Over twenty years ago Tommy Burns had a blueprint…
If that had been followed, then Barrowfield developed as a state of the art first team training centre, then proper data analytics developed, we could well be in a Brentford, Brighton scenario…
It wasn’t we cut corners, we were lazy, we took too long…
So our set up is what it is and what it is capable of doing is working on a small elite first team group.
With our financial clout, we can get a team together to compete in Europe.
If we do that the players that show in Europe will become much more valuable.
They then can be sold as HVPs for multiple profit.
Matt O’Riley was a great example – brought from MK Dons as a smart scout knew the back story.
Improved under Ange, signed a contract extension and improved markedly under BR&Co – was sold for a record fee and replaced by Arne Engels for 10 mn
That’s what works for Celtic…
Not…
“Football is a numbers game, get the right profile in, in the correct volume and at the right price, and you have a chance of succeeding.”
Which as…
Hoop hoop Hooray @ 2:54 pm, intimates, is just a poor business strategy.
Hail Hail
Dollbergs for Sale Again?
Jurassic Parkhead is open, and they’re all off to Dublin, where our “helmets” glisten in the sun.
It’s close-season time for another jolly. By this point last year we’d already had a raft of “club signings”, while Oliver was still asking, “Can I have some more?” before they started edging him towards the door.
Carry on, Yamada… but Bedouin said “neigh”, eventually humping his way off to Arabia, muttering, “Et tu, Dermot?”There’s only ever so much in a Celtic budget, yet, like the famous season-ticket waiting list, the numbers remain a mystery—real enough to be endlessly tickled.
This year’s Nicolas Kühn is apparently called AJ, Arne, Daizen, Reo… or maybe Benny. Meanwhile, there’s a mountain-sized cash stash sitting there. Recruitment has been “reviewed”, just as promised. MON takes centre stage—but will he simply nod through the club’s signings six weeks after they’ve happened… or six weeks after there haven’t been any?
The Chairman and CEO were caught on camera being overtaken by a bloke on a pogo stick. Dr Football has gone, Nancy—who could forget him?—is unemployed, and now it’s Captain CalMac alongside the Celtic Mysterons supposedly steering recruitment, while the Janefield Street overhang continues its familiar refrain: drip… …..drip… ……drip.
A club like no other.
🇨🇮🇨🇮🇨🇮🇨🇮🇨🇮
BSR @ 3:12 pm,
“Dollbergs for Sale Again?
Get your pal TBB to tell you the yarn about Dolbergs and BR…
It’s not as good as the Maltese – pirates’ of penzance one but it is a cracker.
Made me laugh anyway;))))
Hail Hail
Hoop hoop Hooray on 7th July 2026 2:54 pm
“Football is a numbers game, get the right profile in, in the correct volume and at the right price, and you have a chance of succeeding.”
And there it is in a nutshell. Everything that is wrong with our recruitment strategy, The old scattergun approach in the hope one can get a substantial ROI
HHH – where is the problem in a nutshell? I think the problem is that it isn’t in a nutshell. Over the last 15 years, the above is the model that Celtic have mostly aspired to. t has brought 14 Scottish titles, a lot of Scottish and League cups, a club that trades profitably and is no.1 in Europe for financial sustainability (apparently). We sell out 52,00 season tickets every year.
However, in terms of European performances, we , at best have stagnated, more probably gone backward. Our board have created a massive schism with the supporters and the profile they aspire to is not the same as the majority of supporters. We have hugely made an absolute mess of the last 4 transfer windows (too early to be certain on this one, but not looking brilliant so far). We have an executive that has contempt for supporters and no actions to mend the fence (words -yes: actions – no). We have several key personnel not being replaced. etc, etc
This doesn’t seem to be a nutshell to me.
😊
https://share.google/vIDkeYC3pdQXHxNzB
Back to Basics – Glass Half Full on 7th July 2026 2:59 pm
My point is as much about how do we miss these guys.
If player X is bought by Club A for €200k and then sold tonus 12 months later for £2m, then what have Club A done to develop that player and what can we apply at Celtic.
Similarly, with youth players in Scotland like Miller, Doig etc. Why are we missing them. Are they too small, not applying themselves, or are our scouts not getting the tip offs? ( poor scouting?) . Alternatively, are their mentors saying you wont get a chance at Celtic.
Bottom line is that if we have the insight, we can look for trendz and do something about it
Chairbhoy @ 3:11pm
Matt O’Riley is a great example.
Agreed.
Respectfully though he is a single example of a scenario we need to be following quite often as part of a blended recruitment strategy.
What does that actually mean?
Couple of ingredients …
Matt spent 2½ years at Celtic developing from a £1.5m buy from the English 3rd tier to a £25m sale.
That development came with inevitable inconsistency of performance.
Which we mitigated with another type of signing in that “blend”, Aaron Mooy.
Oven ready, short term, low risk resource secured alongside the development player.
And let’s not forget – in the early days Aaron was selected ahead of Matt quite a few times.
To your point about O’Riley funding Engels?
Completely agree.
In my (fag packet) vision of a blended recruitment strategy …
… one of perhaps 7 or 8 signing types would be just that – an Engels type.
“Coach (e.g. Brendan) – your coaching increased the value of that player we just sold.
As part of our handshake with you … out you go and buy a player for £12m with a chunk of the proceeds”
In my mind that type of transaction happens perhaps once every two years.
All lovely and sweet. Here comes the thorny bit.
Brendan spoke of adjusting the model to turn £10m players into £30m players (his words)
In complete control of recruitment would HE have bought a £1.5m prospect from the English third tier?
🤔
Clash City Bhoy @ 3:44pm – cheers.
I get your point.
And I agree there are times we look like we are missing a trick.
IMHO though there are times when there is a reasonable case to be made that says
Player X – currently valued @ say, €300k – is a prospect
But he needs to get down dirty and grow a bit before we can take him on as a Celtic player with an expectation of more consistent performance.
Maybe that needs to happen elsewhere?
That extra 10 to 15% of capability we need … arising from game time in a decent environment
… while we retain a standard necessary to win a league.
That might be compromised in the short term if we took him on and he needs to develop.
I agree with (what I rightly or wrongly think) your view ..
… that it doesn’t seem efficient to pay four to eight fold transfer fees just a year later for that 10-15% uplift !!
But maybe that is the sweet spot?
It is difficult.
For Celtic clearly but also for others.
CHAIRBHOY on 7TH JULY 2026 3:11 PM
Celtic40me @ 2:47 pm,
With all due respect you seem to have the same issue as the Celtic Board and Paul67.
You can’t simply look at another successful club’s template and import that to your club…
I didnt say that. You did:
“State of the art clubs utilise data analytics and football expertise to hone down the numbers”
Camilo Duran is set to complete his £6million move to Celtic in the next 48 hours.
Record Sport understands the Colombian striker is on his way to the UK to undergo a medical.
Talking of different models it’s intersting that it looks Kjejil Knutsen is going to Strasbourg who are part of the Chelsea football group.
Theyre very much a development t club, 31 players in the squad, average Age 22
You’d imagine Knutsen would have a long list of clubs Im bigger leagues interested but he’s chosen to go to a feeder club instead
Weird. Maybe the rumour a about him getting a cut of the club transfers might be true and he sees a few years there as a good opportunity to make sure he has a big pension when he retires
Or maybe not. Who knows
Back to Basics – Glass Half Full @ 4:02 pm,
You make a lot of sense in that comment, yet the main point is hit and miss.
Your point on Aaron Mooy…
BR&Co had a major headache in the GK deparment when Joe Hart retired.
He brought in the experienced Schmichel and development Vil.
In January 2024 he looked at multiple players that the recruitment team put forward for him.
He honed it down to Nic Kuhn…
A player that was clearly underperforming, we gave him the platform to show in Europe and he was sold for muliples of his recruitment fee.
The 10 mn to 30 mn is often used like so many other things, used to beat up on Brendan Rodgers…
All he meant, if your playing a numbers game of buying a plethora of 1.5 mn players and hoping for a HVP…
Why not buy a 10 mn player where the gamble is less.
Four 1.5 mn players
One x 3 = 4.5 mn
One x 2 = 3 mn
One x 1 = 1.5 mn
One runs down his contract
Lots of scouting, development, coaching for one decdnt, one half decent player.
Brendan’s point was if the one x 3 player cost 10 mn he could be sold for a profit of 20 mn – rather than the few million on the 1.5 mn player.
Arne Engels is a great example, not because he set the heather a light but because he developed slowly, methodically, got better, got Celtic…
A very average 10 mn player who has made a great contribution and is worth 25 mn.
As Wycombe Wanderers were playing in the same league as MK Dons and are their greatest rivals…
I, like most, knew Matt O’Riley’s back story – he was never a 1.5 mn player.
He went to train with MK Dons after refusing a Fulham contract as they did not guaratee him playing time.
MK Dons wanted to sign him…
Matt put two conditions, guaranteed playing time and a 1.5 mn ceiling on his transfer fee when the right clyb came knocking…
A Celtic scout knew the back story – no secret btw…
If Ange would agree to give Matt first team playing time, Matt would sign for Celtic for the bargain 1.5 mn…
Nothing formulaic about Matt’s signing, it wasn’t a numbers game – it was a smart signing and a manager willing to give a gifted lad an opportunity to prove himself.
Hail Hail
It’s really very simple
Matt O’Riley was the atypical development signing. Age, appearances, background in league one, at a much lower level than the one he came into and aspired to play in.
He was also one of a number of development signing we made’ many of whom didnt make it.
So, part of the numbers game! Simple!
BSR @ 3:12 pm,
Still awaiting the anti Saudi brigada who were doing down Brendan of Arabia to start on Ange of Arabia…
Maybe they haven’t heard the news yet..;)
Hail Hail
Celtic40me @ 4:47 pm,
Nonsense, Matt was thought very highly off at Fulham and was offered a great contract.
He wanted playing time to go with that contract, Fulham in the EPL couldn’t obliged.
He walked away from that EPL contract
If not unique, it is very rare.
He went to MK Don on his own terms, with his own parameters for any sales.
NOTHING ATYPICAL about our Matt or his coming to Celtic.
As Back to Basics – Glass Half Full says he was inconsistent under Ange…
Yet he was a 10 mn player…
Brendan Rodgers saw him said I want more from you, more goals more assists – that’s exactly what happened, lots of goals, lots of assists.
NOTHING ATYPICAL about our Matt or his imorovement.
Brendan Rodgers refused lots of offers for Matt saying he was worth more.
He eventually went to Brighton for 30 mn…
NOTHING ATYPICAL about our Matt or his record selling fee
Hail Hail
Numbers game signing – lazy
Matt O’Riley signing – smart
Hail Hail
AI on Matt @ 19…
Matt O’Riley was famously offered a three-year first-team contract extension by Fulham in June 2020, which he chose to reject.
As a highly-rated 19-year-old academy graduate at the time, the club offered him a three-year deal with an option for a fourth year to integrate him fully into the senior squad under manager Scott Parker.”
Hail Hail
STARTING XI V SHELBOURNE FC | KO 6PM
DOOHAN, DONOVAN, CARTER-VICKERS, MURRAY, HANEY, McGREGOR (C), BERNARDO, McARDLE, FORREST, BALIKWISHA, OSMAND
Subs
SINISALO, SCALES, McCOWAN, NAWROCKI, SHIN, ENGELS, URE, BONNAR, MONTGOMERY, HATTON, DARGIE, TURLEY, OBIDIWE, CHARLTON, KENNEDY
Chairbhoy
Matt O’Riley was 21and had played less than 60 games in the English third tier
The sweet spot that Paul67 talked about.
When he signed you couldnt find a more typical Celtic development player if you tried
By the time we signed Nic Kuhn you’d soured on the strategy and the idea of signing players like him and Matt. What changed?
FUCKSAKE ALLY FUCKN MCCOIST telling us all whats happening .If you ever needed any proof of how thick the english are…………………………….
CHAIRBHOY on 7TH JULY 2026 4:50 PM
BSR @ 3:12 pm,
Still awaiting the anti Saudi brigada who were doing down Brendan of Arabia to start on Ange of Arabia…
Maybe they haven’t heard the news yet..;)
Hail Hail
———————-
It ran so deep they wanted Saudi gubbed in the World Cup – Ange will get a free pass even when he poses
in traditional dress 🤣
BALIKWISHA getting a game, wonder how he’ll do 🤔
CHAIRBHOY
On signing Kuhn: “ We can always ask what a Rapid squad player can bring to a UCL Club?”
Celtic40me @ 5:17 pm,
Absolute nonsense….
You are the sort of agitator and mischief-maker I was on about the other day.
The recruitment department, the scout, the manager, the coaches… all those who work hard and do their job and deliver for Glasgow Celtic get no credit because some lazy Exec, who is a mate or associate of yours wants the credit for developing his great model…
The lazy guys who want the credit and the bonuses…
Give credit where it is due Spurs man…
The Celtic scout, Matt, Ange, the coaches…
Hail Hail