Financial canary in the coalmine

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Earlier this month, I was asked about Celtic’s “rocketing” share price, which hit levels not seen in 24 years.  The fundamentals of the club had not changed since qualification for the Champions League was secured, so the only thing I could see driving the rise was supporter sentiment.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, but there is a consensus that Celtic will continue to trade successfully.  I can think of a whole series of medium term challenges that will negatively impact our profitability, but as you know well, profitability is not why most of us (any of us) become shareholders and, since Celtic became a PLC, profits have never been paid to the shareholders, save for the preference share dividend Fergus established when he made the Initial Public Offering in 1994.

The share price will go up when more people want a piece of the action and will fall when people want to bail out.  Football shares often move in tandem, reflecting disposable income levels, economic conditions, or even the stock market bubble what popped in 2000, when Celtic shares last traded at their current level.

If a club’s share price is not moving in tandem with its peers, or any other economic indicator, there will be a reason why.  In April, two Newco shareholders offered 13,142 shares with an opening price of 18p – which was a significant discount on where price was a decade ago, with the club struggling through the lower leagues.

This recent share offering has not yet been bought and remains open until the end of the month, but that 18p price now seems ambitious.   The current highest bid from one buyer, who is prepared to scoop up 5000 shares, is 4p.

That’s a blow to existing shareholders who might want to cash out at some point, but with the price so low, what level can the club realistically hope to issue new shares at, should they need fresh investment?  And boy, do they need fresh investment.  At this level, a share issue to support the trading loss would render current influential shareholders impotent.  That would be a sore one.

Again, THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, but I expect sentiment and the share price would spring back if Newco qualifies for the Champions League this season, which would turn another year of operational loss into somewhere near breakeven.  This, in turn, would postpone the need for fresh investment.

You would be forgiven for thinking this share price looks like the canary in the coalmine.  Champions League qualification would let the noxious atmosphere escape for a while, but failure would trap all concerned.  It is difficult to overstate how important last season’s title was in Scottish football – way more than 2020-21.

I expect we will return to this topic again soon.

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  1. A very large crowd,around 30,over here from Dublin.Around 4 families.I have seen Chelsea,around 10,Man U,4 or5,strips.Young kids up to adults.Not a Hoops to be seen.Bombarded by EPL on TV.

     

    Saudi,rest of M.E,Far East,America ,slightly lesser,all deluged by EPL.

     

     

    What chance have we got?.

  2. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    “That’s a blow to existing (R2ngers) shareholders who might want to cash out at some point”

     

     

    Anyone in particular in mind Paul.

     

     

    Glib type?

     

     

    Shameless type?

     

     

    Untruthful type?

  3. I went past Ibrox today as well

     

     

    No worries or stacked materials no moving equipment.

     

     

    I thought I cannot post that people will just think I am at it.

     

     

    But on their blogs someone posted pics taken yesterday and said work progress.

     

     

    Simone counters with nothing has changed there is still 12 weeks of work at least.

     

     

    Hahahaha.

  4. A worthy repost from tbe old blog,

     

    Please sign and share widely

     

     

    BARRACH OBAMPOT on 18TH JULY 2024 8:50 AM

     

    Morning CQN, I hope you don’t mind me posting another link.

     

     

    FIFA are holding an Extraordinary Council Meeting on 20th of July to suspend Israeli football teams

     

     

    “It is a chance to stand in solidarity with Palestinians, including their own colleagues at the Palestine Football Association, and at least 186,000 Palestinians who have been killed directly and indirectly by Israeli forces since October 2023, among them 240 footballers.”

     

     

    Please take ten seconds to show your support

     

     

    https://actionnetwork.org/letters/red-card-israel-at-fifa-council

     

     

    HH

     

     

    Free Palestine CSC

  5. Prestonpans bhoys on

    One distressed club is certainly ICT, they said so. I would guess Livingston is another, as for the third, you can only hope but unlikely them, so probably another.

     

     

    However resent events……might suggest a forth 🤔🫡

  6. !!Bada Bing!! on

    tickets for next month’s William Hill Premiership match v Kilmarnock (Sunday, August 4 | Kick-off 4:30pm) will go on general sale from 10am on Friday, July 19.

     

     

    Show your support at the Bhoys’ first game of the season and join in the Flag Day celebrations as the team kick off the 2024/25 season and their defence of the Premiership title

  7. Stadium issue

     

    Not really buying any players of substance

     

    Is there a Malmo/Maribor disaster on the horizon ?

  8. bournesouprecipe on

    Big shout out to Hugh Zappritti Boyden, on becoming chairman of the British Budgerigar Association.

  9. garygillespieshamstring on

    Seen a quote attributed to the guy Edgar saying that change is required in sevco’s structure because “we have had too many cooks for too long and it isn’t working”.

     

     

    I think he must have meant “crooks”. Maybe the “r” key on his keyboard is faulty.

     

     

    For the avoidance of doubt, he didn’t say sevco.

  10. garygillespieshamstring on

    Is that the guy De’Ornelias who played in the pointer’s testimonial game and was never seen again?

  11. bournesouprecipe on 18th July 2024 4:44 pm

     

     

    Scullybhoy

     

    Fernando de Ornelas

     

     

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     

    garygillespieshamstring on 18th July 2024 4:45 pm

     

     

    Is that the guy De’Ornelias who played in the pointer’s testimonial game and was never seen again?

     

     

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     

     

    Yip.

  12. garygillespieshamstring on 18th July 2024 4:45 pm

     

     

    Is that the guy De’Ornelias who played in the pointer’s testimonial game and was never seen again?

  13. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    BOURNESOUPRECIPE @ 4:13 PM

     

     

    Big shout out to Hugh Zappritti Boyden, on becoming chairman of the British Budgerigar Association.

     

     

    ——

     

     

    🤣

  14. See Rory went off the rails down in Ol’ Troon, first round of 78

     

    Tiger heading the same way…..only worse

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