Financial canary in the coalmine

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Earlier this month, I was asked about Celtic’s “rocketing” share price, which hit levels not seen in 24 years.  The fundamentals of the club had not changed since qualification for the Champions League was secured, so the only thing I could see driving the rise was supporter sentiment.

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, but there is a consensus that Celtic will continue to trade successfully.  I can think of a whole series of medium term challenges that will negatively impact our profitability, but as you know well, profitability is not why most of us (any of us) become shareholders and, since Celtic became a PLC, profits have never been paid to the shareholders, save for the preference share dividend Fergus established when he made the Initial Public Offering in 1994.

The share price will go up when more people want a piece of the action and will fall when people want to bail out.  Football shares often move in tandem, reflecting disposable income levels, economic conditions, or even the stock market bubble what popped in 2000, when Celtic shares last traded at their current level.

If a club’s share price is not moving in tandem with its peers, or any other economic indicator, there will be a reason why.  In April, two Newco shareholders offered 13,142 shares with an opening price of 18p – which was a significant discount on where price was a decade ago, with the club struggling through the lower leagues.

This recent share offering has not yet been bought and remains open until the end of the month, but that 18p price now seems ambitious.   The current highest bid from one buyer, who is prepared to scoop up 5000 shares, is 4p.

That’s a blow to existing shareholders who might want to cash out at some point, but with the price so low, what level can the club realistically hope to issue new shares at, should they need fresh investment?  And boy, do they need fresh investment.  At this level, a share issue to support the trading loss would render current influential shareholders impotent.  That would be a sore one.

Again, THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, but I expect sentiment and the share price would spring back if Newco qualifies for the Champions League this season, which would turn another year of operational loss into somewhere near breakeven.  This, in turn, would postpone the need for fresh investment.

You would be forgiven for thinking this share price looks like the canary in the coalmine.  Champions League qualification would let the noxious atmosphere escape for a while, but failure would trap all concerned.  It is difficult to overstate how important last season’s title was in Scottish football – way more than 2020-21.

I expect we will return to this topic again soon.

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  1. Ordinary racist we see you and your racism joe…very shloppy,we see you in all your rancidness

     

    One racist many monikers

  2. ordinary joe on

    AN TEARMANN@9:31pm

     

    Ordinary racist we see you and your racism joe…very shloppy,we see you in all your rancidness

     

     

     

    One racist many monikers.

     

    …………………………………..

     

     

    Prove it.

  3. “THE HAND OF GOD on 18TH JULY 2024 10:02 PM

     

    Good evening from Nice”

     

     

     

    Are you going to be there for the end of Le Tour?

  4. The hand of God on

    Good evening Hot Smoked,yes I will be ,the first time it has ended outside of Paris,due to the Olympics being held there,so I’m told.Grandstands and yellow Jerseys adorn the Plzce Massèna.

  5. Ahhhhh Kasper.Could not have made a better choice.

     

    His distribution is brilliant,long balls to runners a speciality.Vardy a grateful recipient of many.Kyogo alert.

     

     

    Seen a few pics of Palma today.A lean ,mean machine.Has put some work in.Always a great sign.

  6. THE HAND OF GOD on 18TH JULY 2024 10:13 PM

     

     

    Thanks and yes, it is owing to Paris being readied for The Olympics .

     

    Another difference is that the final Stage this year is a Time Trial so not really as good a spectacle for those who are actually at the event.

     

    Anyway, thanks again.

  7. “Celtic is one of the world’s proper football clubs, a massive name and a place of real passion and success,” he told the club website. Celtic is what football is all about.”

     

     

    Kasper Schmeichel

     

     

     

    A good start, Kasper.

  8. Scullybhoy i wont thanks

     

     

    One racist-many monikers,keep it hidden and stay anonymous and dont be so sure your ip is hidden,its not.stay stinted.your history of posts shows your trash.one racist many monikers

  9. garygillespieshamstring on

    The hand of god

     

     

    Nice to see you, to see you ….

     

     

    Dodgy catchphrases CSC

  10. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    So that’s the goalkeeper position sorted in full.

     

     

    As a group – they’re stronger than last season.

     

     

    Pointless to repost histrionics from two weeks ago about only having Scott Bain.

     

     

    Onwards to the strikers ……

  11. bigrailroadblues on

    Good morning all from Govanhill. It’s Friday, let the good times roll. 👍

     

    Welcome to the Celtic, Kasper.

  12. Good Morning Fholks – Celtic in The USofA

     

     

    The pre-pre-season has now finished and we can start getting on with pre-season.

     

     

    HOT SMOKED @ 10:36 PM,

     

     

    Excellent words by Kasper, the second keeper brought in this window.

     

     

    We have a young Excellent prospect Finnish lhad and now we bring in his very experienced Nordic cousin.

     

     

    Both internationalist, both at Celtic because of it’s history and potential.

     

     

    Kasper has worked with BR and Adam Sadler before and did a great job, so you’d think he’ll hit the ground running.

     

     

    Some may be spooked 👻 by yesterday’s GK arrival.

     

     

    They are thinking where’s the ROI.

     

     

    Well the fact is, if Kasper gets us even a couple of points in our eight UCL games he has paid back the cash handsomely.

     

     

    It’s very blinkered to look at ROI in a one dimensional fashion.

     

     

    Also, we are a Football team, we need good goalkeepers, goalkeepers cost money

     

     

    This stuff should be a no brainer

     

     

    It’s like going to your local Hospital and finding no Doctors, surgeons or consultants – just juniors, trainees, nurses and paramedics ’cause Doctors, surgeons and consultants are too expensive to employ

     

     

    You wouldn’t have much of a Hospital and the Tory Government might not care a jot.

     

     

    Last year all we recruited was juniors, Kasper knows what Celtic’s about and the juniors ain’t going to cut it in a prestigious tournament in the USofA…

     

     

    For all you young supporters out there and our 21st Century Custodians – Celtic don’t play friendlies…

     

     

    Have A Grand Day Tims

     

     

    Hail Hail

  13. Football is basically a very simple game.

     

     

    Score more goals than your opposition and you win the game.

     

     

    To achieve that there are two aspects :-

     

     

    Stop the opposition scoring. Tick, great goalkeeper solution.

     

     

    Score goals . To be continued.

     

     

    HH.

  14. BRRBs…

     

     

    More like an iron lung the way I am at the moment…

     

     

    BTW: Apologies to Celtic40me, was a wee bit harsh last time I was on…

     

     

    …this on the wagon stuff doesn’t agree with me:)

     

     

    Your posts are interesting and of course you have every right to put your opinion forward

     

     

    Hail Hail

  15. Good morning all from a current 17 degree and gray skied Garngad, unlike Playa de Las Americas the cloud here does not burn off about 10am and leave 34, 35, 36 degrees.

     

     

    Anyways ontoCeltic Glasgow and a huge welcome to our new recruits who look good acquisitions now for a CF, LB, at least.

     

     

    Do not let any 1st team starters leave.

     

     

    Treble is on.

     

     

    D. :)

  16. A big Celtic welcome to Kasper

     

     

    Evidently, the Dane is now at a stage in his career where some may suspect the veteran is suffering from age-based decline. Think again: Schmeichel had the best save percentage rate in the Belgian Pro League last term with 79.3%, equating to 3.9 saves per 90 minutes for Anderlecht.

     

     

    This meant he prevented a whopping 14.36 goals on league duty over the course of 2023/24. Compared to Hart, his save percentage was 67.9%, conceding 29 efforts from an Expected Goals tally of 29.

  17. My Google news this morning has 3 Ibrox News stories of impending transfers.2 which would cost £6 million,one a free,but big,big wages.£67,000 per week,but player would likely take half that.So that’s OK then.

     

    Sometimes with this mob,you are actually in awe of their,stupidity,dumbness,gullibility.

     

    This is one of that clubs Official Media Partners.The mind doth boggle.

     

    Every morning this Google brightens up my day.

  18. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    “This is one of that clubs Official Media Partners”.

     

     

    Which one? The Record, Sun, Herald, Evening Times, Radio Scotland, Radio Clyde?

  19. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Scroll on by TB.

     

     

    Content giddily produced by blue morons for giddy consumption by blue morons.

  20. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    The rags GM mentioned all nailed their colours to the mast 30 years ago.

     

     

    “Let’s soar around Murray’s orbit while looking down and chuckling at Celtic”

     

     

    Hell mend them.

  21. “TURKEYBHOY on 19TH JULY 2024 10:18 AM

     

    Sometimes with this mob,you are actually in awe of their,stupidity,dumbness,gullibility.”

     

     

     

    I agree but I have to add that I have met many Celtic fans ( particularly those who do not hail ( hail ) from Glasgow) who are just as gullible .

  22. BACK TO BASICS – GLASS HALF FULL on 19TH JULY 2024 11:02 AM

     

    The rags GM mentioned all nailed their colours to the mast 30 years ago.

     

    “Let’s soar around Murray’s orbit while looking down and chuckling at Celtic”

     

     

     

    Did a newspaper actually print that??

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