Football must wait for the financial final act

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Interesting financial news from Deloitte that FA Premier League clubs turned a profit in season 2013-14, the first time the combined results of the top 20 clubs in England have been in the black for 15 years.  The reason for the £190m surplus was a 29% increase in revenue, largely as a result of the-then new TV deal, which runs until summer 2016.  Wages rose only 20% that year.

Clubs will be happy to have stemmed the losses, although the first year of a new TV deal is always their high water mark, but the underlying bubble remains a problem.  Income cannot continue to rise at heady double-digit rates, shareholders of BskyB and BT will eventually see to that, despite the fact that next big boost from TV is already confirmed for season 2016-17.

The play to watch is not if or when a dysfunctional football sector gets its act in order, it’s when an almost-as dysfunctional broadcasting industry reaches equilibrium.  We’ve discussed before Sky’s absolute need for Premier League rights to secure their place as a prime broadcaster.  BT, Virgin, Netflix and others are busy eating into their movie, news and entertainment broadcast market.  It’s this need which is driving revenue towards the English Premier League.  Without English Premier League football, Sky are vulnerable.

Sky took the first step towards passing the financial pain of their new deal down the line to consumers this month in the form of a price increase.  The company have successfully done this before, many low income families are now paying £70 per month for satellite TV, and subscriber losses after previous increases have been almost non-existent.

Millions of people have high stakes skin in this game: subscribers, Sky and BT executives, their respective shareholders, Premier League clubs and the dependent ecosystem below them.  All the spinning plates have remained in the air, despite price increases through a recession, but one fundamental remains:

This is a bubble.

Speculators are confused when they only see a market inflate over a long period that it’s not a bubble.  The moment these TV deals become unaffordable to subscribers, or more likely, to the broadcasters, the bubble will burst.

Debts are high, profitability is here, but the underlying commercial pressures to stay in the league remain, so wage pressure will continue to eat away at available funds.  Those outside of the bonanza have to figure out how to compete for audience and players, while waiting on the final act.

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703 Comments

  1. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas

     

     

    ******

     

    Dresses like an over seventy, you say?

     

     

    You’ve obviously never seen me cleaned up and heading to the Day Centre, my boy!

  2. Delaneys Dunky on

    Almore

     

     

    No way is WITS doing this. It was tongue in cheek. Police Scotland would be banging him up for exposure.

  3. In all seriousness, if we don’t win it, I’d like to see Stubbs team win.

     

    Trebles are icing on the cake, the League is where we have to succeed, it’s the gateway into Europe.

  4. Pod i

     

     

     

    21:00 on 26 March, 2015

     

     

    Soooooooo “big boned” Dingwall is on the beg for funds to take on sports direct ,

     

    This should be fun, a few sevconions I know wouldn’t give him daylight in a dark corner .

     

    “Not to be trusted” was what they said.

  5. 22:03 on 26 March, 2015

     

    Should we have a wip roond for WITS bail money ?

     

     

    what is the stars

     

     

    22:03 on 26 March, 2015

     

    Cork celt

     

    Don’t worry I was going to protect my modesty with a discreetly placed. …sombrero

     

     

    ——-

     

     

    exslaemuirbhoy

     

    So it’s whips now!

     

     

    wITS

     

     

    It’s that chilly tonight a CQN beanie might be better!

     

     

    HH JamesGang

     

    What’s this place like tonight???

  6. bournesouprecipe

     

    20:13 on

     

    26 March, 2015

     

    Didn’t even know Richard the III had died?

     

     

    Deed or no deed ATOS declared him fit to work.

  7. DD,

     

     

    I was going to suggest (knowing WHITS was only joshing) that he did a lap round the square in a Celtic onesie…then again…he might get a custodial sentence rather than a fine :((

  8. Delaneys Dunky on

    Doc

     

     

    We will destroy Hibees if we both reach the final?

     

    I think we will be beating Falkirk to win the treble.

  9. luxcelt

     

     

    Yer man brown looks to have endured a pretty tough old paper round!

     

    Still cannae be an easy gig, being a Tory in scotland.

     

     

    HH JamesGang

  10. DD, disagree on that one.

     

    If we beat ICT Hibs will be the team we face.

     

    And it will then be 114 years with no cup win.

  11. heglasgowcelticway

     

    21:45 on

     

    26 March, 2015

     

    Miliband next.This could be ugly.

     

     

    Are you recycling the one about the newpaper that published a photo of Davie Dodds with the caption ‘the unacceptable face of Scottish football’?

  12. mike in toronto on

    ex s …

     

     

    just about spat out my coffee there … misread your post @22:03 …. misread the i and thought it was two L’s!

  13. Just looked on Deadclub media

     

    to see their response to Mark Dingwall asking for money.

     

    Deary deary deary me he is not a popular chap even among them,

     

    I would get barred if I printed what they were saying on here.

     

    Good enough for him IMHO

  14. BGX

     

     

    Still on the drugs I see!

     

    “Quickest way to independence” – as the song says “that’ll be the day!”

     

    Perhaps you have missed the fact that 25% of the SNP voted No or the fact that the schoolboy arithmetic of the post independent Scotland running on oil has demolished any hope of any sane person voting Yes in the middle to long term!

     

    I see that wee Nicola is now the highest paid politico in the land !

     

    I see that her pals all have nice wee cushy jobs and that MSPs are paying themselves even more than before!

     

    Labour has lot to answer for and will probably get what’s coming in May but please drop the notion that the SNP will do anything for the most disadvantaged section of Scottish society !

     

    Apart from passing ridiculous laws such as OBAMA or the latest one trying make it illegal if council don’t raise educational attainment among deprived kids!

     

    They want to try spending some of the money they could have raised by increasing the council tax -but of course that wouldn’t have gone down so well in well off SNP areas – you know all the ones that voted No in September!

     

     

    HH

  15. Dallas Dallas where the heck is Dallas on

    Clashcitybhoy, good idea about bbc covering scottish games plus hopefully reducing the amount of cash sky may get and even better, nae mccann or tanner.

     

     

    However, bbc would have nevin grrrr .

     

     

     

    Luxcelt that chap sounds like dingwall’s kindred spirit. A guy who supported the deid club had a blog slagging dingwall at every oppurtunity for being a money grabbing chancer.

     

     

     

    My apolgies for insulting guys in their seventies dress sense by comparing them with dingwall’s apparell. Lol

     

     

     

    Good night all and sleep well.

  16. If we can lose to Hamilton or St Johnstone on a given day ,we can lose to ICT,

     

    LONG way to go, but we have the players for the job.

  17. Croppybhoy….The Fastest Way to Independence is another 5 years of Tory Gov in Scotland….It Is….Suck it up …i Can….

  18. Delaneys Dunky

     

    See you saturday bud,

     

    Have a look the abuse they are giving him ,lets you see they will NEVER unite for anything.

     

     

     

    Good night all

     

    Lennybhoy

     

    text you Tomorrow.

  19. Delaneys Dunky on

    Croppy

     

     

    I am gonnae sing Roll of Honour through a megaphone at Paisley next Friday, for the full 90 minutes. So I get an OBAMA ya bam ye. Magic. :)))))