Football must wait for the financial final act

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Interesting financial news from Deloitte that FA Premier League clubs turned a profit in season 2013-14, the first time the combined results of the top 20 clubs in England have been in the black for 15 years.  The reason for the £190m surplus was a 29% increase in revenue, largely as a result of the-then new TV deal, which runs until summer 2016.  Wages rose only 20% that year.

Clubs will be happy to have stemmed the losses, although the first year of a new TV deal is always their high water mark, but the underlying bubble remains a problem.  Income cannot continue to rise at heady double-digit rates, shareholders of BskyB and BT will eventually see to that, despite the fact that next big boost from TV is already confirmed for season 2016-17.

The play to watch is not if or when a dysfunctional football sector gets its act in order, it’s when an almost-as dysfunctional broadcasting industry reaches equilibrium.  We’ve discussed before Sky’s absolute need for Premier League rights to secure their place as a prime broadcaster.  BT, Virgin, Netflix and others are busy eating into their movie, news and entertainment broadcast market.  It’s this need which is driving revenue towards the English Premier League.  Without English Premier League football, Sky are vulnerable.

Sky took the first step towards passing the financial pain of their new deal down the line to consumers this month in the form of a price increase.  The company have successfully done this before, many low income families are now paying £70 per month for satellite TV, and subscriber losses after previous increases have been almost non-existent.

Millions of people have high stakes skin in this game: subscribers, Sky and BT executives, their respective shareholders, Premier League clubs and the dependent ecosystem below them.  All the spinning plates have remained in the air, despite price increases through a recession, but one fundamental remains:

This is a bubble.

Speculators are confused when they only see a market inflate over a long period that it’s not a bubble.  The moment these TV deals become unaffordable to subscribers, or more likely, to the broadcasters, the bubble will burst.

Debts are high, profitability is here, but the underlying commercial pressures to stay in the league remain, so wage pressure will continue to eat away at available funds.  Those outside of the bonanza have to figure out how to compete for audience and players, while waiting on the final act.

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703 Comments

  1. After the “interview” Paxman can be heard asking “Ed, are you OK?” I think that was supposed to be off mic. Hmmmm

  2. Thought Red Ed done quite well .Like the programme Labour have set out for the future if they get in.Couldnt care less for Union Jacks or Saltires,care more about a more equal society TBH.Labour will be getting my vote.

  3. Captain Beefheart on

    Poor Ed. Actually he is very wealthy but you get the point. What a disaster. Seems like a decent man.

     

     

    The image of Mr Putin laughing at him is quite appropriate. Ed’s hardman approach was excruciating.

  4. Whats In The Stars,

     

     

    If Stuart McCall wins The Treble next year, I’ll gladly repeat your jog around George Square.

     

     

    Not losing any sleep over that.

     

     

    Have you signed up with Operation Transformation yet?

  5. Right wean sleeping.

     

    Down to watch Paxman interviews although thanks to CQN have an idea of what’s in store.

     

    Love and peace all.

  6. Captain Beefheart on

    I can’t be bothered mentioning the other guy.

     

     

    Commentary finito.

     

     

    You are welcome.

  7. WITS,

     

    is your streak gonna be an all ticket affair,

     

    maybe make a few quid for charity,

     

    I am sure there will be plenty takers

  8. Something long for the nightshifters (no unfortunate errors in my texdictive prext) brought over from tail end of previous blog.

     

    =======

     

    On what the same club debate is all about in terms of how our game is run the following from tsfm might be of interest to some ( it being International week) and anything goes.

     

     

    From tsfm

     

     

    Remember the advert in the Sunday Herald re how Celtic fans viewed TRFC?

     

    ————————————————————-

     

     

    ‘As explained in our previous ruling, we accepted that although run by a different legal entity, that Rangers Football Club (RFC) was still the same football club.

     

    In this instance, the ads are providing the opinion that Celtic supporters consider Rangers Football Club to be a new club, based on the legal entity of the club.

     

    ‘Therefore, they are not making claims that are in breach of our previous ruling about a different related ad.

     

    We accepted that the club had been liquidated so the advertiser is allowed to state this.’

     

     

    (Taken from http://www.cqnmagazine.com/asa-the-different-entity-uefa-rules/)

     

     

    Is this the Shcrodingers cat thingy that I have heard so much about? Rangers are both dead and alive until you really.. really open the box and see for yourself.

     

    Seems a lot of folk are awfully reluctant to focus on the photon.”Open the box..”…”no..no take the money!”

     

    ==============================

     

    This ambiguity is whatever folk want to make of it and folk can present their perspective, feline or otherwise as they choose, but the serious part for me is not the status of RFC/TRFC as the same club, but where the SFA stand with UEFA on sporting integrity.

     

     

    It is pretty clear UEFA do not see TRFC to have the necessary three years uninterrupted membership of the SFA.

     

     

    The question to the SFA should not be are TRFC and RFC the same club? The question should be has there been an interruption in SFA Membership requiring a fresh start from which three years membership can be measured?

     

     

    UEFA clearly think so in TRFC’s case by applying their Article 12. Does the SFA?

     

     

    UEFA treat membership as broken because under Article 12 and, particularly in RFC’s circumstances, not to have done so could only have been deemed to be to the detriment of the sporting integrity of their competition. Otherwise had sporting integrity not been at risk UEFA could have made an exception.

     

     

    Are the SFA saying that they see no detriment to the sporting integrity of domestic competition by differing from UEFA’s reasons for requiring 3 years uninterrupted membership?

     

     

    The SFA/SPL’s efforts to parachute TRFC into the top then second top tier tell us the SFA’s idea of sporting integrity appears to differ from UEFA’s.

     

     

    Since that parachute effort failed I don’t see what the SFA think they have to gain in terms of being trusted to protect the integrity of their competitions by not aligning themselves with UEFA and telling it how it is with regard to any club being liquidated in the circumstances under which RFC were. This included 10 years of improper registration, tax evasion, non payment of tax due and entering into unsustainable debt from 2008 to get access to CL money and being economical with the truth to retain the advantages of their mis-behaviour.

     

     

    In refusing to make such a statement that they share UEFA’s principles and method of protecting sporting integrity and that they got it badly wrong with RFC, they continue to damage themselves and the integrity of Scottish football.

  9. POTY- Joe Hanson/Broonie/Gordon

     

    YPOTY- Jason D

     

    Worst tackle of the year- probably WITS at George Square, allegedly :-)

  10. Hahaha, ya bams.

     

     

    Getting in from weans school show and trying to catch up with a read back.

     

     

    Yes, I googled Diamond Jackson too.

     

     

    Now the wife’s off to bed and I’m off to do some further ‘research’…

  11. Whats In The Stars,

     

     

    Which fight?

     

    The Yes v No debate. That one?

     

     

    No need. My colours well and truly nailed to the mast. Independence is inevitable. Has been since we were granted devolution. Our time is coming.

     

     

    Or the other fight?

     

    The wits naked ambler debate?

     

     

    I think you would cos you’re a Dubs mentalist and a Mhan of your word.

     

    But I fear cia scotland would then subject you to their version of Extraordinary Rendition where they drive you back and fore in the back of a meat wagon between Saltcoats and Bathgate for 3 years before years of incarceration at the high security camp weymss bay.

     

     

    Can’t have that fate befall you so I think we should let you off lightly and do it in a mankini!!!

     

     

    I’m deffo away noo!

     

     

    HH JamesGang

  12. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Evening fellow Celts. Been off blog for the last ten days or so. Just wanted to chip in a few things.

     

     

    John Guidetti should get himself down to Bar 67 and do a live gig, he’s a right rer chanter.

     

     

    Paul Paton is a hun thug and I hope he gets a jail term and his hoop split in Barlinnie.

     

     

    The RST and vanguard bears are pervasive wankers of the highest grand order.

     

     

     

    Hail Hail to Almore, the collective winklepicker family, DD, thunder road, petec and Marspapa (and gorgeous young yin) for making my mad crew so welcome in the KDS last Saturday. And, Almore, thanks for the very snazzy shirts:-) Yer a star.

     

     

     

    HH

  13. Auldheid @ 10.48

     

     

    Is this the Shcrodingers cat thingy that I have heard so much about? Rangers are both dead and alive until you really.. really open the box and see for yourself.

     

     

    ——-

     

     

    Or in this case, Shcrodingers hun monkey!

     

     

    HH JamesGang

  14. Delaneys Dunky on

    AoW

     

     

    POTY 1 Craigy bhoy.

     

    2 Broony

     

    3 Stefan

     

    Favourite player. Efe Ambrose FIFA Balon D’Or.

     

     

    YPOTY Jason

  15. Ernie, does that change any of what I’ve said. You’re a good left winger from what I read on here. I don’t know if you’re still a labour supporter or activist but if so you’d be better off directing your energies at sorting out the mess that is Scottish labour and giving voters something to vote for….

  16. hola,

     

     

    for once i will cut jim murphy so,e slack.

     

     

    his answer on qt about cameron and foodbanks, and not caring was very good.

     

     

    that cash converters programme last night showing the families with literally nothing was terrible. surviving on handouts

  17. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    And, how did I forget………………….Gordybhoy64…………..Shame on me:-(

     

     

    HH Gordybhoy64

  18. WITS – the Irish Labour Party – absolutely agree. My great hero and founding member of same, James Connolly and his comrade Jim Larkin must be spinning in their graves at what it became.

  19. Delaneys Dunky on

    ACGR

     

     

    It was a beautiful day amongst beautiful Tims. Glad you are no deid yet! Like the huns are.

  20. ACGR,

     

    alright mucker,cheers,

     

    was just gonna ask if I had my invisibility cloak on:-)))

     

    hope to meet up some time for a beer and a dram tutorial,

     

    was great meeting loads of CQNrs on my debut at the corner

  21. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Player of the year – Scott Brown.

     

     

    I was winding up and Aberdeen supporter in the office on Tuesday about them dropping 2 points and the league being in the bag. He brought up Scott Brown and how he hates him. I finished the discussion with one line “you would love to have him in your team”. I He smiled, nodded and walked away.

     

     

    Lets all do the Broonie……………………….repeat as often as necessary.

     

     

    / / / /

  22. Delaneys Dunky on

    Gordy

     

     

    How could anyone miss you in a company? Great sesh on Saturday. Hopefully many more with the faithful!

  23. Delaneys,

     

    how are you mucker,

     

    hope you noticed the gauntlet was thrown down the other night

     

    as to who are lightweights :-))

  24. A crazy night on CQN, Thanks mainly to BGX, even though he was ably supported by plenty of distracted Bams. Anyway less than 8 days until normality returns. I’m off to my bed. Good Night All.

     

    Diamond Jackson says Aye.

  25. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Gordybhoy64, if I knew how to do a blushing coupon thingee believe me I would. I was trying to think my way round your table and missed you out. I did make amends when I remembered chatting to you.

     

     

    Definitely catch you for further swally’s at some point.

     

     

    DD, naw. no deid just very much other stuff going on.

  26. DD- think you couldn’t split those 3 with a fag paper.

     

     

    SPFW POTY- Rooney, Aberdeen

     

    SPFL POTY – Anyone but Broonie

     

    Manager of the Year – the Sheepherder

  27. Delaneys Dunky on

    ACGR

     

     

    My mate Raymond a Glasgow Dons fan loves Broonie. Said to me watching the cup final that he would love him in the Dons team.

  28. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Jamesgang, if you’re still about, what’s the Dunblane Hydro like for a meal these days. Thinking of taking Mrs Acgr there for a bit of dirty weekend before I head off on my travels next week.

  29. ACGR,

     

    no bother pal,

     

    I am still having flashbacks to Saturday and

     

    remembering more people that I met