Football must wait for the financial final act

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Interesting financial news from Deloitte that FA Premier League clubs turned a profit in season 2013-14, the first time the combined results of the top 20 clubs in England have been in the black for 15 years.  The reason for the £190m surplus was a 29% increase in revenue, largely as a result of the-then new TV deal, which runs until summer 2016.  Wages rose only 20% that year.

Clubs will be happy to have stemmed the losses, although the first year of a new TV deal is always their high water mark, but the underlying bubble remains a problem.  Income cannot continue to rise at heady double-digit rates, shareholders of BskyB and BT will eventually see to that, despite the fact that next big boost from TV is already confirmed for season 2016-17.

The play to watch is not if or when a dysfunctional football sector gets its act in order, it’s when an almost-as dysfunctional broadcasting industry reaches equilibrium.  We’ve discussed before Sky’s absolute need for Premier League rights to secure their place as a prime broadcaster.  BT, Virgin, Netflix and others are busy eating into their movie, news and entertainment broadcast market.  It’s this need which is driving revenue towards the English Premier League.  Without English Premier League football, Sky are vulnerable.

Sky took the first step towards passing the financial pain of their new deal down the line to consumers this month in the form of a price increase.  The company have successfully done this before, many low income families are now paying £70 per month for satellite TV, and subscriber losses after previous increases have been almost non-existent.

Millions of people have high stakes skin in this game: subscribers, Sky and BT executives, their respective shareholders, Premier League clubs and the dependent ecosystem below them.  All the spinning plates have remained in the air, despite price increases through a recession, but one fundamental remains:

This is a bubble.

Speculators are confused when they only see a market inflate over a long period that it’s not a bubble.  The moment these TV deals become unaffordable to subscribers, or more likely, to the broadcasters, the bubble will burst.

Debts are high, profitability is here, but the underlying commercial pressures to stay in the league remain, so wage pressure will continue to eat away at available funds.  Those outside of the bonanza have to figure out how to compete for audience and players, while waiting on the final act.

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703 Comments

  1. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    My tip (hope) for winning the Masters – HUNter Mayhan.

     

     

    You canny keep a good HUNter down.

     

     

     

    Mon the HUNter……………………..:_)

  2. CQN….The Diamond Jackson Roll of Honour will be publised Tomorrow……anyone who does not want their name published can donate a small fee to @impussywhipped.com….Yours in Celtic….Diamond xxx

  3. Delaneys Dunky on

    ACGR

     

     

    Mud wrestling weekend? Enjoy. Its haunted. I stayed there once and my lady loved me spooking her. ;)

  4. ACGR

     

     

    Bypass Dunblane

     

     

    Come right into Stirling and try the new Collessio ? Hotel / Restuarant

     

    Got a very good reputation

     

     

    Hail Hail

  5. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    DD, I stayed there for four months when I worked at Grangemouth about fifteen years ago and I’ve never been back since.

     

     

    BTW, jumping off the top of the wardrobe at yer wummin wearing a full leather body suit is only spooky in Clydebank.

     

     

    This where you need some input from WDH.

  6. Captain Beefheart

     

    Audience seemed to disagree with you.Anyhow,like I said,care more about jobs and a more equal society than flags and nationalism.Loads of our fellow Celtic supporters in the Greenock and Upper Clyde areas are reliant on staying as we are for them and their families livelihoods.

     

    Differing opinions in a democracy?——–That’s what it s all about.

  7. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Cowiebhoy, I’ll use my internetty skills tomorrow to check that out.

     

     

    Table booked for June 6th at G’s. I hope your hip replacement doesn’t kybosh the event. I’m right oota wheelchairs in Carmyllie:_)

  8. ACGR

     

     

    Just had a look, it is very very nice, and menu is good

     

    Wife has done lunch, said it was superb

     

    Have heard excellent feedback on Restuarant for Dinner as well, although not tried it yet

     

    Let me know, could possibly join date dependant :-)

  9. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Cowiebhoy, I think I’ll go for your recommendation. Looks nice and not a bank breaker either:_)

     

     

    HH for that bruv.

  10. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Cowiebhoy inviting himself to my durty weekend with Mrs ACGR has me slightly concerned.

     

     

    Down bhoy, it’s just me and the wee Dumfries girl on this gig.

     

     

    Mibby next time…………………………….:_)

  11. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Diane Abbot is looking hot to trot on This Week but not as gemmy as Michael Portillo’s timmy shirt.

     

     

    Is he really a Portbhoy? I never knew that.

  12. ACGR

     

    I just looked at the Colessio website,

     

    they are offering sunday night stays for 20 quid,

     

    surely some mistake there

  13. jude2005,

     

    new hotel in Stirling,

     

    looked at room availability and sunday nights are showing at a score

  14. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Slavering huns on hunmedia are salivating and discussing John Park’s imminent jump from a proper job at Celtic to the utter uncertainty of a stable wage at the red brick Victorian lavy.

     

     

    Their thick as shiteness is unprecedented.

  15. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    Another smashing evening in Ayrshire,great company and great food.

     

     

    Grateful thanks all round,I really appreciate it.

     

     

    Even if the lads’ partners don’t!

     

     

    Apologies to CLUNKS. I left that phone in my jacket,hanging on the wall. Another reason to hate the iPhone and cherish my Nokia.

     

     

    Hopefully you can forgive me for that,bud. I shall return!!!!

  16. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    jude2005 is Neil Lennon \o/ 00:02 on 27 March, 2015

     

     

    ACGR,Have you got the dos h Portilla has?

     

    …………….

     

     

     

    No I don’t. Why do you ask?

  17. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Beep Beep Beep Beep Beep,,,,,,,,,,drunken curry loving train missing bastard alert.

     

     

    Hope you had a smashing might pal:_)

     

     

     

    HH bruv

  18. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Jude, I’ve no idea what JP’s relationship with Celtic is like. I know he’s been instrumental in bringing in some pivotal players for us, and more than a few duds in recent years. I’m merely commenting on the hun thread started by a durty wan saying he’s unhappy at Celtic and want to join the sevconian “revolution”.

     

     

    One of the pitfalls of reading their pish is that you read their pish. I no longer have the ability to respond on their lovely wee blog:-(

  19. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Jude, you’ve obviously never seen me in the company of a lovely wummin. Money disnay matter when a wummin feels sorry for ye.

     

     

    ha ha

     

     

    Hope the young fella is progressing well. I look forward to seeing his name on the team sheet in the next season or two. That will be a proud CQN moment.

     

     

    HH and keep on dramming.

  20. jude2005 is Neil Lennon \o/ on

    He’s doin well. Ta. Blended Balantynes tonight and some Bob Harris country. Perfecto!!!

  21. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Jude I’m dramming some of my own bottling just now. A nice wee 12 Y.O. Linkwood, Oloroso cask finish at 57.2% ABV. Needs a wee splash of the wet stuff and is an outstanding dram.

     

     

    HH

  22. A Ceiler Gonof Rust on

    Portillo’s shirt is a thing of beauty. Where does one buy a shirt like that for less than five HUNner quid?

  23. jude2005 is Neil Lennon \o/ on

    ACGR

     

     

     

    Ya wee tease!!!! Enjoy but I tink you’re already there. 0)