Football must wait for the financial final act

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Interesting financial news from Deloitte that FA Premier League clubs turned a profit in season 2013-14, the first time the combined results of the top 20 clubs in England have been in the black for 15 years.  The reason for the £190m surplus was a 29% increase in revenue, largely as a result of the-then new TV deal, which runs until summer 2016.  Wages rose only 20% that year.

Clubs will be happy to have stemmed the losses, although the first year of a new TV deal is always their high water mark, but the underlying bubble remains a problem.  Income cannot continue to rise at heady double-digit rates, shareholders of BskyB and BT will eventually see to that, despite the fact that next big boost from TV is already confirmed for season 2016-17.

The play to watch is not if or when a dysfunctional football sector gets its act in order, it’s when an almost-as dysfunctional broadcasting industry reaches equilibrium.  We’ve discussed before Sky’s absolute need for Premier League rights to secure their place as a prime broadcaster.  BT, Virgin, Netflix and others are busy eating into their movie, news and entertainment broadcast market.  It’s this need which is driving revenue towards the English Premier League.  Without English Premier League football, Sky are vulnerable.

Sky took the first step towards passing the financial pain of their new deal down the line to consumers this month in the form of a price increase.  The company have successfully done this before, many low income families are now paying £70 per month for satellite TV, and subscriber losses after previous increases have been almost non-existent.

Millions of people have high stakes skin in this game: subscribers, Sky and BT executives, their respective shareholders, Premier League clubs and the dependent ecosystem below them.  All the spinning plates have remained in the air, despite price increases through a recession, but one fundamental remains:

This is a bubble.

Speculators are confused when they only see a market inflate over a long period that it’s not a bubble.  The moment these TV deals become unaffordable to subscribers, or more likely, to the broadcasters, the bubble will burst.

Debts are high, profitability is here, but the underlying commercial pressures to stay in the league remain, so wage pressure will continue to eat away at available funds.  Those outside of the bonanza have to figure out how to compete for audience and players, while waiting on the final act.

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703 Comments

  1. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Acgr

     

    Bon voyage when it comes around but you know that you will be well catered for by our friends in Oz

     

    Hail Hail bro

  2. HH and good morning, I was skipping through the DR before I take it round to ma wee maws, (she likes the DR) and I noticed a section that I look at every day when I swatch it, it’s called , line of the day, and I chuckled at it ……..” After seeking a job where violence in the workplace is indulged, Jeremy Clarkson has been handed Lee McCulloch’s Rangers shirt”…. I doubt if that will go down well with thems, lol.

  3. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    Morning Bhoys I believe in this life we all have problems at times that we find it hard to cope with and currently I am in that position and have been for a while now. I find others looking to me for a solution.However,I can see no solution it is outwith my understanding I do know there are many many people with worse problems than mine but other folks pain is no way to make things feel a little better for me. I am very Lucky that I believe in God and I can pray to him and put my problems in his hands I also believe he can in his own time make my problem disappear but I accept at the moment I have been given the problem for a reason of course I cannot see that reason but never the less there will be one.Why am I writing this well not for sympathy I can assure you but to touch base with others on CQN who have problems weighing them down and who do not know who to turn to.Well I suggest if you dont do this already get down on your knees and ask for Gods help and if you have fallen away from your faith he will delighted at your return and he will not turn you away you are his prodigal son.May God Bless you all. H.H.

  4. Top of the morning to you all

     

     

    If only they had signed John Hartson without a medical

     

     

    According to Barry chip shop rammy Ferguson in todays Daily Record it is a scandal they signed Gael Bigirimana (thought it was a loan) without a medical.

     

     

    Now in the Richter scale of scandals down Ibrox way this hardly registers but this powder puff sensationalism takes the punters eyes away from ball and into the crowd.

     

     

    We hear the new board are looking under the hood so far all they have done is release the bonnet lock. My guess is the wont peak too far into their clubpanys car crash history and they certainly will not go all the way back to Sir David of Moonbeams deal for a pound

     

     

    HH

  5. foghorn leghorn on

    murdochbhoy

     

    08:22 on

     

    27 March, 2015

     

    Good morning CQNers,

     

     

    I’ve studiously steered clear of the Scottish Independence but this morning the Daily Record’s analysis of the voting patterns would have us believe Catholics more than other religious groupings voted ‘Yes’.

     

     

    Does this mean Alex Salmond and his party will more inclined to court the Catholic vote?

     

    —————–

     

     

    to be fair i think the snp have been doing that the last few years with their spoken commitment to maintain catholic schools

     

     

    Like every other politician and political party though, such statements have as much to do with political expediency as they do their whole hearted support for whatever the subject matter is, in this case the principle of faith schools – ive no doubt if someone could snap their fingers and all faith schools would be gone without a word being said then many politicians of all parties would take that route

     

     

    i’ve long since forgotten about faith (the teachings of Professor Brian Cox hold the answers to everything :-)) but faith schools are still very much valid in this day and age. The most important thing is do the children get a rounded academic education. If so, and as long as the school dont preach intolerance of other faiths and in fact openly engage with them, then as far as im concerned people can open schools professing any faith they want, including those who worship Roosters!!

     

     

    AllKneelBeforeFoghornCSC

  6. Tricoloured Ribbon on

    joe fillipis haircut,

     

     

    I don’t know what your problem is, but I will be thinking of you at Mass shortly.

     

    God bless you sir.

  7. murdochbhoy

     

     

    08:22 on 27 March, 2015

     

     

     

     

    ‘Does this mean Alex Salmond and his party will more inclined to court the Catholic vote?’

     

     

     

    ###

     

     

     

    Salmond realised early on that he had to win over the Catholic vote if he was going to achieve anything.

     

     

    He knew that his party wasn’t known as Strictly No Papes for no reason.

     

     

    He and the man who used to be called Cardinal Keith Obrien got on well, for whatever reason, and that allowed Salmond to make some progress in achieving his objective. I don’t know what O’Brien got from the arrangement.

     

     

    It’s all very cynical and contrived.

  8. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    Tricoloured Ribbon. Thank you fella for your kind words and your prayers they are very much appreciated.May God Bless you and yours.

  9. foghorn leghorn on

    ernie lynch

     

    09:08 on

     

    27 March, 2015

     

     

    Salmond realised early on that he had to win over the Catholic vote if he was going to achieve anything.

     

     

    He knew that his party wasn’t known as Strictly No Papes for no reason.

     

     

    He and the man who used to be called Cardinal Keith Obrien got on well, for whatever reason, and that allowed Salmond to make some progress in achieving his objective. I don’t know what O’Brien got from the arrangement.

     

     

    It’s all very cynical and contrived

     

    ———————————–

     

     

    i’m sure we could come up with dozens of policies from all political parties that are a cynical attempt to appeal to a certain demographic

     

     

    though you might struggle because you seem to be of the opinion that everything the snp do is dishonest but everything the unionists do is honest

     

     

    as i said, every party gets involved in political expediency, its just what politicians do, and is one of the reasons why as a breed they are so unpopular

  10. So has the GSL looked under the bonnet and and discovered he has a “cut and shut” on his hands? He’ll slap it into them.

  11. What a fantastic Gesture from the Celtic Foundation

     

     

    Feeding 500 homeless people on 17th April, at Celtic Park, in honour of Brother Walfrids 100th anniversary

     

     

    Wonder if we see this being broadcast anywhere ?

     

     

    Oh John Park, has Christmas arrived, he will be at home with that other mob, if true

     

     

    Hail Hail

  12. joe filippis haircut

     

     

    08:55 on 27 March, 2015

     

     

    Hope everything works out for you. Life is very tough at times.

     

     

    Thing that keeps me going at times is thinking there is always someone worse off somewhere in the world.

     

     

    Take care of yourself buddy

  13. foghorn leghorn on

    away from soccerball and politics

     

     

    does anyone out there have BT broadband? is it good value in terms of broadband speed and what tv channels you get?

     

     

    im paying neary 50 quid a month for Virgin Tv, broadband and landline but im sure there must be better deals for the same stuff, though sky looks about the same price

  14. Onthindime

     

    I did notice that Tracksuit Ned’s Take on the unfit player thems have at the moment over there, and that they are having a big summit meeting with all the board today and get it sorted out, so I’m assuming all is well over Govan way then, you must applaud the new board on how swift they have turned things around in such a short time, and not even one cup of tea given away in the parking lot, PL and the Celtic Board must be shaking in there boots.

  15. foghorn leghorn

     

    Iv been told it all depends on the signal strength in your area, I tried them all in my area and Virgin was the strongest, mind you it was Virgin who done the test, soooo?

  16. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    Foghorn leghorn. I have B.T.Broadband I get lots of football on it but dont really bother with TV channels so im not a great help there.I can tellyou that when I switched from AOL with whom I rarely had a problem with I had constant problems with BT it kept crashing and on more than one occassion was off for days however it appears to have improved recently but at one stage I was ready to bin it.H.H.

  17. Dexter says PAY THE LIVING WAGE CELTIC PLC on

    I cancelled sky sports last week after many years of subscription.

     

     

    1. As a follower of SPL and La Liga, I’m not prepared to subsidise EPL anymore

     

     

    2. Specifically, Sky’s treatment of Scottish football, teams and fans is deplorable, as is the paltry money paid to Scotland

     

     

    3. Final straw was Steven Fletcher’s self posted picture of him standing by his new Lamborghini with his Bentley in the background. This is from a distinctly mediocre player in the “best league in the world” (sic)

  18. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Foghorn

     

    I was with telewest (NLT) in Glasgow before Virgin took over I get a loyalty is count from them

     

    I have CL package and it wi fi works great on phones TVs and tablets all on and signal still good

  19. foghorn leghorn on

    thanks all,

     

     

    im one of these people who cant be bothered with the hassle of changing things like that in case i need to change email adresses and phone numbers etc

     

     

    and to be fair Virgin works well most of the time, i just thought it was getting a bit pricey, but these companies love people like me because i just keep paying without thinking if im getting shafted

     

     

    i reckon if i phone up and threaten to leave they might give me an incentive to stay – im easily bribed!

     

     

    and agree about sky, i love watching most sports and would really like to have sky sports, but im not paying the amount they want to feed their over inflated league, even though i watch it in the pub every week!!

  20. Foghorn.. I have VM TV, phone and broadband, have all the sky sports channels (not HD), ESPN and BT Sports as well as all the entertainment and kids channels and have the free call package too for £71 a month. I did threaten to leave and they brought it down to that price. I am more than happy with that price and the broadband speed is excellent.

  21. An interesting view about RC’s and referendum voting. Past SNP senior executives (Wolfe was a bigot of the deepest dye) had no association with the RC church nor, going back a few years, did their rank and file membership. However times change and although no lover of either , neither Eck or Sturgie have an ounce of bigotry in them.

     

     

    That said if the SNP in 2015 claim to be truly representative then at least 12 of their election candidates should be RC ( practising, nominal, notional or whatever). Words are all fine and dandy but the proof of the pudding etc etc.

     

     

    There is currently a big hoo-ha within the SNP about women candidates . So lets hope their RC election candidate representation is not at variance with their all inclusive assertions and contentions.

  22. The Green Man on

    JFH

     

     

    Hope you are feeling better soon.

     

    And I know you will keep on posting:)

     

     

     

    HH

  23. JFH

     

    Wee prayer said for you and yours and those others in similar circumstances. Although many stray from their Faith, prayer can be a source of strength and comfort to those in need.

     

    Sharing your troubles at times with others may also help.

     

     

    HH

  24. foghorn leghorn on

    I think anyone who suggests Nicola Sturgeon has 1 sectarian bone in her body is living in la-la land and she is the one leading the party (not sure i can say the same for past leaders though, so i will take others words for it)

     

     

    Also, im not really into gerrymandering member or candidate ratios in terms of religion, colour, roosterness etc

     

     

    I think as much as possible political parties should organically create a fair system to elect mp/msp candidates and only manufacture the numbers if their system clearly doesnt work, in which case also change the system

     

     

    im more interested in getting the right person for the job rather than playing the numbers game

  25. Just in to say…I hope that the news the JP has gone is true but…in addition to that…I’ve always suspected a ‘secret-agreement’ between JP & PL…I’ll leave it at that and, also add…the last time that I saw PL in public was at the announcement of the NB-deal and…PL looked frail…only saying…I hope he’s ok…thats genuine btw.

     

     

    …….oot.

  26. foghorn leghorn,

     

     

    I got my fingers burnt with BT broadband.

     

     

    Initially it was fine but after a period my bills crept up from £28 to the last one which was £95.

     

     

    Unbeknown to me there was a limit on it and as soon as you go over it the rate was extreme.

     

     

    I was also paying £107 for sky at the time.

     

     

    I’m now with virgin at £84 for the lot.

  27. foghorn leghorn on

    blantyretim is praying for the Knox family

     

    09:37 on

     

    27 March, 2015

     

    Foghorn

     

     

    I was with telewest (NLT) in Glasgow before Virgin took over I get a loyalty is count from them

     

    I have CL package and it wi fi works great on phones TVs and tablets all on and signal still good

     

    —————–

     

     

    yes, i was with telewest as well in my previous lodgings but it wasnt under my name even though i payed the bill so they wouldnt give me the discount when i moved!

  28. Joe Filippis Haircut

     

    Y.N.W.A

     

     

    ACGR

     

    Enjoy your hols and thanks for posting that song on the night shift.