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Football must wait for the financial final act

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Interesting financial news from Deloitte that FA Premier League clubs turned a profit in season 2013-14, the first time the combined results of the top 20 clubs in England have been in the black for 15 years.  The reason for the £190m surplus was a 29% increase in revenue, largely as a result of the-then new TV deal, which runs until summer 2016.  Wages rose only 20% that year.

Clubs will be happy to have stemmed the losses, although the first year of a new TV deal is always their high water mark, but the underlying bubble remains a problem.  Income cannot continue to rise at heady double-digit rates, shareholders of BskyB and BT will eventually see to that, despite the fact that next big boost from TV is already confirmed for season 2016-17.

The play to watch is not if or when a dysfunctional football sector gets its act in order, it’s when an almost-as dysfunctional broadcasting industry reaches equilibrium.  We’ve discussed before Sky’s absolute need for Premier League rights to secure their place as a prime broadcaster.  BT, Virgin, Netflix and others are busy eating into their movie, news and entertainment broadcast market.  It’s this need which is driving revenue towards the English Premier League.  Without English Premier League football, Sky are vulnerable.

Sky took the first step towards passing the financial pain of their new deal down the line to consumers this month in the form of a price increase.  The company have successfully done this before, many low income families are now paying £70 per month for satellite TV, and subscriber losses after previous increases have been almost non-existent.

Millions of people have high stakes skin in this game: subscribers, Sky and BT executives, their respective shareholders, Premier League clubs and the dependent ecosystem below them.  All the spinning plates have remained in the air, despite price increases through a recession, but one fundamental remains:

This is a bubble.

Speculators are confused when they only see a market inflate over a long period that it’s not a bubble.  The moment these TV deals become unaffordable to subscribers, or more likely, to the broadcasters, the bubble will burst.

Debts are high, profitability is here, but the underlying commercial pressures to stay in the league remain, so wage pressure will continue to eat away at available funds.  Those outside of the bonanza have to figure out how to compete for audience and players, while waiting on the final act.

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703 Comments

  1. ExSlaemuirBhoy on

    !!Bada Bing!!

     

     

    Thankfully he never murdered one of mine, I have had a belief for more years than I care to remember that we will all be judged by only One.

     

    For all we know the guy may have been unconscious in the cabin. Nobody knows for sure

  2. corkcelt

     

     

     

    18:55 on 26 March, 2015

     

    ————

     

    Gets it out the road in a home game ,

  3. bournesouprecipe on

    That would need to be unconscious after he’d locked the pilot out

     

    of the cabin?

  4. TBM

     

     

    And when you hit the pillow yer heid will be nipping and you’ll not a wink ;o)

     

     

    Mrs RWE criticizes my sleep hygiene….

     

     

    I thought she meant I should shower before I go to bed.

     

     

    :o)

  5. Ah yes leftclicktic, we should be well capable of victory regardless, however without checking I have the feeling we dropped as many points at home than on the road.

  6. Magnificentseven on

    bournesouprecipe

     

     

     

     

    19:11 on

     

     

    26 March, 2015

     

     

     

     

    That would need to be unconscious after he’d locked the pilot out

     

    of the cabin?

     

     

     

    When the Pilot left the cockpit he was automatically locked out, he needed let back in

  7. ExSlaemuirBhoy on

    !!Bada Bing!!

     

     

    read back the post, hope I don’t sound like some bible thumper because I’m not but my schooling left me with certain beliefs which I’ve held on to.

     

    I don’t know the mechanics of the cockpit door, does it lock automatically behind someone when they leave the cockpit ?

  8. bournesouprecipe on

    Efe (he’s a bombscare) Ambrose is ahead of

     

     

    EMILIO IZAGUIRRE

     

    JASON DENAYER

     

    KRIS COMMONS

     

    LEIGH GRIFFITHS

     

    ADAM MATTHEWS

     

    JOHN GUIDETTI

     

    TONY STOKES

     

     

    on the ole CQN player of the year award

  9. *** LAST MAN STANDING 4 – REMINDER ***

     

     

    A gentle reminder to the following that you have still to send in your pick for Week 2.

     

     

    Seto’s Celts

     

    The Token Tim

     

    Deccyrollercoaster

     

    Angelgabriel

     

    Geordie

     

    praecepta

     

    Mrs CRC

     

    Martybhoy59

     

    The Black Cat

     

    Paddybhoy1888

     

    The Lurker

     

    dim sam

     

    Blantyretim

     

    Billy Bhoy

     

    cosycornerbhoy

     

     

    If I’m mistaken please email cqnlastmanstanding@gmail.com to obtain a humble apology.

     

     

    Jobo

  10. mike in toronto on

    ExSlaemuir

     

     

    I’m no expert in planes, but my understanding is that, in fact, the doors do lock automatically and can only be opened from inside the cockpit.

     

     

    I also believe (but if I am mistaken, someone will let me know) that, since 9/11, the laws for planes in North America were changed such that, when on pilot leaves the cockpit, he/she must be replaced by another person, so that there is never only one person in the cockpit. My understanding is that similar rules were not in place for other areas.

  11. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Corkie

     

    Mini BT is 15 on 7th and she is having a few friends over for a sleepover

     

    She has told them it won’t be the 8th as she has her priorities

     

    Don’t know where she gets it from. 8))

  12. bournesouprecipe on

    Magnificent

     

     

    Hmmm…..sorry not really a CQN thing I’d get into.

     

     

    But I think the co pilot is heavily implicated enough at the moment

     

    without anyone knowing for sure.

  13. mike in toronto on

    RWE

     

     

    If you really want to piss of the Tea Party types (not that you have to, but if you want to …) tell them that ‘their future president’ is in fact ….. a Canadian! After all the Obama is a muslim/not an american thing, they really do not like it!

     

     

    They’re kind of like zombies … no sense of humor about these sorts of things.

     

     

    which, when I think about it, is, at the end of the day, the biggest difference between us and them … they really have no sense of humor.

  14. ExSlaemuirBhoy on

    mike in Toronto

     

     

    Aye , suspect you’re correct, a few airlines here already reviewing procedures.

     

    It’s always hard when a plane goes down due to the high numbers of fatalities involved.

  15. West End of East End on

    Just watching C4 news and this is not a new thing with a pilot deliberately bringing a plane down. Must admit I’ve never heard of it before but they showed about 5 or 6 other instances over the years. Only getting the publicity now because it happened in Europe, some airlines have changed their policy today so the risk of this lessons from now on with most expected to follow suit. Really sad situation…

  16. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Mike

     

    I was in Canada the year the jays won the World Series

     

     

    They put the Canadian flag upside down.

  17. ExSlaemuirBhoy on

    Great to hear young Liam scores tonight, got really high hopes for the youngster would prefer it if he kept it to the Hoops mind you.

  18. jobo baldie

     

     

    19:18 on 26 March, 2015

     

     

    Praecepta having internet problems, will I text him for you.

     

     

    Keep the Faith!

     

     

    Hail Hail!

  19. Mike in Toronto

     

     

    I shouldn’t tempt fate but….

     

     

    Liberty University (LU), Lynchburg, Virginia.

     

     

    “On May 15, 2009, vice president of student affairs Mark Hine sent an e-mail to the president of LU’s College Democrats, Brian Diaz, revoking the university’s recognition of the club. “The Democratic Party platform is contrary to the mission of Liberty University and to Christian doctrine”, Hine’s e-mail stated, citing the party’s positions on abortion and federal funding thereof, same-sex marriage, hate crimes, LGBT rights, and socialism as justification for the dissolution. While the club can still meet on campus, it cannot use the university’s name or reserve university facilities.”

     

     

    From Wikipedia, but source cited.

     

     

    My Jesus is better than your Jesus CSC

     

     

    (With no wish to offend anyone – but a man with these views is likely to be President of the USA in 2016, and he will play chicken with any other country on his list.)

     

     

    And we think we have problems with currant bhuns.

  20. The Battered Bunnet on

    RWE

     

     

    Fella, if elected, will certainly become the oldest ever President, should he be elected.

     

     

    Presumably he’s related to ole Methuselah?

  21. mike in toronto on

    blantyre

     

     

    I love americans ….a good many of them seem to think that because we have medicare that we are all commies …. but a few have stood out over the years … I have heard from a few of them that the flower on our flag was not a maple, but was in fact a marijuana plant… (although, given harper and ford, I can sort of understand why they might think that!)

     

     

    going through kentucky … and this lady with the broadest Kentucky twang I have ever heard, says ‘you guys, have the funniest accent ‘… and asked if we celebrated christmas in Canada (or Canader, as she called it). …. she and her pals thought xmas was an american holiday, like July 4!

     

     

    gotta love em!

  22. Saw Ian Cathro on stv…..That guy Will be a Proper manager…100% ..No doubt…#Sawitherefirst….

  23. Magnificentseven on

    bournesouprecipe

     

     

     

     

    19:24 on

     

     

    26 March, 2015

     

     

     

     

    Magnificent

     

     

    Hmmm…..sorry not really a CQN thing I’d get into.

     

     

    But I think the co pilot is heavily implicated enough at the moment

     

    without anyone knowing for sure

     

     

     

    I think you may be right, I was only pointing out the facts, security measures may well have been what allowed this to happen

  24. Mike in Toronto

     

     

    The big change post the murders in the US in 2011 was to mandate protocols and video surveillance(CDSS)

     

     

    EASA and FAA both brought in rules on protocols but every CAA in each country can apply slightly different rules and airlines can comply in different ways.

     

     

    Most went for the CDSS straight away but others used keypads alone and while implementing mods, passwords which were spoken could be used.

     

     

    The counter risk of averting terrorist access to the cockpit is suicide and illness.

     

     

    An ill person won’t lock you out

     

     

    Last year was the safest in aviation. The authorities review this when setting rules. No knee jerks

  25. Evening all,

     

     

    Very seldom post but lurk daily.

     

    I have both SKY and BT sports for the pure and simple reason to see Celtic play when I cant make the games.

     

    I would be more than happy to get shot of both if Celtic gave me an alternative. The majority of games I miss are due to them being on a Sunday which is just not possible for me, I also struggle with early Saturday kick off’s due to family responsibilities.

     

     

    As much as the new deal in England repulsed me I keep both sports packages to see Celtic.

     

    I know a few guy’s on here are in touch with the goings on down Parkhead way and was wondering if there is any real desire from Celtic to have a real meaningful look at this?.

     

    Ideal for me would be 3pm kick off’s on a Saturday failing that I would gladly give the £40 odd a month I pay for SKY sports direct to Celtic.

     

     

    I heard PL mention that the deal actually costs us money, what I never heard was a plan or vision to change the current situation.

     

     

    HailHail

  26. jobo baldie

     

     

    19:41 on 26 March, 2015

     

     

     

    Just got a text from him, back online. When he gets out of the Pub in about half hour he’ll get on it…don’t shoot the messenger…:)

     

     

    Keep the Faith!

     

     

    Hail Hail!