Uefa’s videoconference yesterday moved the prospect of domestic league football in late summer a step closer. It is likely the lockdown across Europe will be lifted gradually, with mass public events like football games being the very last permitted activity.
That being the case, it is likely that some leagues will be underway behind closed doors in July, with many more in August. Football will be back, TV contracts will be compromised but not completely discarded, so there will be some income, but without ticket revenue, the consequences for most Scottish clubs will be significant.
Most Hearts players have taken a lead from the (odious, remember) Gordon Taylor, PFA chief in England, by offering to defer their wages, not take an actual cut. Ticket revenue is almost an irrelevant figure for the English top flight, becoming less so as you go down the divisions, so a deferment works at the top level there.
But it is pointless to Hearts. There is a real prospect that clubs will not be allowed to sell a match ticket this year. As with England, those at the top of the tree will cope better, but all will face consequences and even the likes of Hearts will do well to survive without an insolvency event unless they can significantly cut their wage bill.
Gordon Taylor’s >£2m salary is not sustainable if his members are not earning full wages and paying significant union fees. It is against his financial interest to acquiesce to calls from the English Football League for an across the board wage cut. While this battle goes on in England, the same debate will happen in Scotland.
The crisis is likely to come to a head in the English Championship, which operates in normal times to the norms of voodoo economics, but will be wiped out without their normal income streams. There, some well-off footballers will lose their incomes. Below the Championship, it is hard to see a viable employer. Ironically, lower league clubs in Scotland can furlough all their staff, including players, who will not be offended by a £2500 monthly cap. The crunch in Scotland will come in the top flight, where valuable contracts are at stake.
It could take weeks for this to play out, with millionaires holding firm against the backdrop of horrendous levels of anxiety, joblessness, poverty and death in the community. I predict Steven Naismith, who unilaterally accepted a 50% wage cut, is one of the few footballers you admire when this is all over, despite his personal history. A phrase I never expected to type, but these are exceptional times.
I was shocked then angry when I heard the UK death figures yesterday, weeks before the peak is due. Our governments and their advisers have no master plan out of this one, and there are too many people still taking risks. Each household is on its own, so stay at home.
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Sky Atlantic tonight at 8PM a program called Coronavirus Into the Red Zone. Watched a wee bit last night. In Bergamo the epicentre of the pandemic in Italy.
Very sobering view of what will happen if that level of problem happens here
Dbhoy, every 3-4 days is the pattern, until it reaches a plateau determined by the effectiveness of lockdown in limiting the spread of infection.
TBB
I can’t answer right now but will in a little while.
HH
THE ONLOOKER on 2ND APRIL 2020 1:50 PM
If you look at the link I posted earlier , you may be able to understand my stance on Chinese culpability in failing to immediately relay the seriousness of this outbreak to the rest of the world.
They knew and they covered up.
No reason to disagree with your take on how slow local authorities were in dealing with this or with your criticism of the British Govt. response.
Having said that , it`s difficult to be prepared for the unprecedented.
Covid 19 Lockdown time waster.
Option 1
Pick a team of Scottish footballers you wished had played for Celtic.
Option 2
Same option 1 but had to have seen them play.
Eurochamps67
the onlooker@1:50pm
Same here in Canada,reactive.
50 more deaths from yesterday up to 126 ,Scotland.
The UK Government will now control the devolved nations’ access to coronavirus testing kits
just when you think it isn,t possible to abhor this Tory / Westminster yoborottery,pig fecking bunch of absolute twats …..they open another box …..
smiley the drum is beating time thing
Braw
50 more dead and some erseholes arguing about the name of hospital.
‘Coronavirus in Scotland: Row emerges over ‘Louisa Jordan Hospital’ amid ‘Nightingale Glasgow snub’
Dbhoy
Here’s what I’m looking at, being the run of cumulative deaths from the first 500 deaths through to 19 days after lockdown, the point when the plateau or peak should occur. ie Italy reached 19 days on 28th March, UK will reach it on 11th April.
The UK numbers very closely fit the pattern set in Italy and Spain (and France and virtually elsewhere), and the pattern is quite striking. The rate of growth slows the nearer to the 19 day end point you get.
The UK is in the zone where, if the pattern holds, yesterday’s number will be doubled in 2-3 days time (I’m allowing myself the liberty of defining ‘couple’ as 2-3 days).
There are local influences in the numbers of course, prime amongst them population density and the effect of local measures. Also, there are inconsistencies in the way the numbers are reported, with these in the UK not including community deaths which are likely to become more of a feature next week as we exceed healthcare capacity.
Anyway, here you go. Happy to listen to your view of what the next nine days holds for UK.
TBB
Italy
10-Mar 631
11-Mar 827
12-Mar 1016
13-Mar 1266
14-Mar 1441
15-Mar 1809
16-Mar 2158
17-Mar 2503
18-Mar 2978
19-Mar 3405
20-Mar 4032
21-Mar 4825
22-Mar 5475
23-Mar 6077
24-Mar 6820
25-Mar 7503
26-Mar 8215
27-Mar 9134
28-Mar 10023
Spain
18-Mar 598
19-Mar 767
20-Mar 1002
21-Mar 1326
22-Mar 1720
23-Mar 2182
24-Mar 2696
25-Mar 3434
26-Mar 4089
27-Mar 4858
28-Mar 5690
29-Mar 6528
30-Mar 7340
31-Mar 8189
01-Apr 9053
02-Apr 10003
03-Apr
UK
26-Mar 578
27-Mar 759
28-Mar 1019
29-Mar 1228
30-Mar 1408
31-Mar 1798
01-Apr 2352
02-Apr
03-Apr
04-Apr
05-Apr
06-Apr
07-Apr
08-Apr
09-Apr
10-Apr
11-Apr
the fecking original Florence Nightingale hospital in the Crimean War was an absolute disaster …
smiley lady with the lamp of death thing
Braw
Rebus67
Thoughts with you and yours on the passing of your brother drew.ynwa
Johnson might have to stay longer in isolation. That’s handy for him not having to face the public.
ERNIE LYNCH on 2ND APRIL 2020 12:23 PM
Before football starts back I’d like to see some research into whether, and to what extent, matches played a part in the spread of the virus.
…………………….
It is thought in Italy that a match involving Atalanta in Bergamo played a significant part in the spread of the virus and contributed to Bergamo becoming the epicentre for the virus in Italy.
TBB
There is no doubling of the death rate every couple of days that I can see from any statistics anywhere in any country or worldwide.
HH
jesus wept
Oops just noticed the post by The Onlooker. This is the match I was referring to. Atalanta v Valencia.
TBB
Posted without reading your latest post.
HH
Sadiesbhoy
Did they not play that game in Milan
I dislike Naismith intensely as a footballer but I have to admire his social conscience. He puts on Christmas dinner each year for the homeless in Glasgow. Credit where it’s due. Well done Naismith.
TBB
Apoligies, I always took a ‘couple’ as two , not two or three, that would be a ‘few’ shirley?
As for the next nine days, no idea. But I don’t think the death rate will be doubling every couple of days and I think it’s alarmest and irresponsible to post such. IMO of course.
Not looking for a big debate here. You can have the last word.
HH
Spoke with Charlie’s mother about 30 minutes ago to be informed that he is out of intensive care in Letterkenny Hospital and is now in a ward with two others. She asked me to thank you for your prayers which have brought all of Charlie’s family through this difficult period..
Went out for a short walk at midday, On my way, I came across a group of people who could be easily forgotten in our time of distress, viz., the bin men/women who are collecting our rubbish and who put themselves in danger daily. I automatically raised my hand to salute them as they passed on their way to further collections.
Useful Links
Where Belgium has lead, others will follow. The big leagues are desperate to fulfil their tv contracts but small leagues like Belgium, Scotland and others need to ensure next season’s cash flows are not hampered by extending this season long into the summer and beyond.
Prestonpans Bhoys
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-champions-league-match-a-biological-bomb-that-infected-bergamo-experts-say-11963905
The Battered Bunnet on 2nd April 2020 1:20 pm
‘Back to Basics
The only reliable data in all of this is – regrettably – the number of deaths and the day of the week.’
##
How consistent though is that data across countries, particularly at the start of an outbreak? And how subjective is the judgement of those who die of covid 19 and those who die with covid 19?
‘ We know that people who show symptoms today were infected 5 days ago’
###
I’m not sure that’s correct. As I understand it, symptoms can take from 2 to 14 days from the date of exposure to show, with the median being about 5. So any extrapolation has to allow for that.
TBB
From the the stats you provided from Italy, SIX days and the death rate didn’t double. I think you need to pause and reflect before you post on this subject, some folk on here seem to take it as gospel.
22-Mar 5475
23-Mar 6077
24-Mar 6820
25-Mar 7503
26-Mar 8215
27-Mar 9134
28-Mar 10023
HH
Some countries with recent experience of SARS already had a plan if something similar occurred. They activated screening and contact tracing.
Two days after South Korea reported their 100th COVID–19 case, they reported their 200th. Two days later, their 400th. Two days later, their 800th: South Korea had a doubling time of two days in the first 10 days of reporting their 100th case.
Since then, 27 days have passed. But instead of reporting their 1,759,943rd case yesterday, they reported their 8413th. South Korea has reduced their doubling time to 65 days.
The Italian deaths rate is levelling at the top ?
DBHOY on 2ND APRIL 2020 1:52 PM
TBB
We know that 500 deaths yesterday presages 1000 deaths in a couple of days time.
———————-
I may have picked you up wrong. But from what you’ve posted. You’re saying the death rate doubles every couple of days, is that correct?
HH
……………………………
It was pointed out last week in a number of news broadcasts that the number of victims of the Coronavirus doubles every 4 days.
TBB
From your stats, FIVE days in Spain and the death rate didn’t double.
28-Mar 5690
29-Mar 6528
30-Mar 7340
31-Mar 8189
01-Apr 9053
02-Apr 10003
That’s my last on it.
HH
Lies, damned lies and statistics
PRESTONPANS BHOYS on 2ND APRIL 2020 2:42 PM
Sadiesbhoy
Did they not play that game in Milan
………………..
You’re right the game was played in Milan but it is being identified as a major factor for the spread of the disease in Bergamo. I seem to remember South of Tunis posting recently about the virus arriving in Lecce and that also being blamed on a game between Lecce v Atalanta the previous weekend with the Atalanta fans circulating in the shops, cafes etc.
DBHOY on 2ND APRIL 2020 3:15 PM
TBB
From your stats, FIVE days in Spain and the death rate didn’t double.
28-Mar 5690
29-Mar 6528
30-Mar 7340
31-Mar 8189
01-Apr 9053
02-Apr 10003
That’s my last on it.
HH
………………………..
TBB points out in his post that the closer you get to Day 19 the numbers start to drop off.
Wee Nasty…………?????
Admiration? No way………….none, nada, nein – Naw!
Horrible wee aryan teddy……….as a millionaire it is nothing for him to make that gesture. His attitude is clear on the pitch.
Off the pitch and in the meeja he’s the hunned-up poster boy – the Next Thommo
* bleurgh*……………a Void Boyd with an o level…..
Just naw!
BANKIEBHOY1 on 2ND APRIL 2020 3:36 PM
Wee Nasty…………?????
Admiration? No way………….none, nada, nein – Naw!
Horrible wee aryan teddy……….as a millionaire it is nothing for him to make that gesture. His attitude is clear on the pitch.
Off the pitch and in the meeja he’s the hunned-up poster boy – the Next Thommo
* bleurgh*……………a Void Boyd with an o level…..
Just naw!
…………………………..
Stop mincing your words and beating about the bush. Why don’t you just come right out and say what you mean? :-))
NaIsmith.
No thanks .
https://videocelts.com/2018/08/blogs/latest-news/shameless-naisy-laughs-to-the-bbc-about-his-attack-on-hayes/
just bide indoors…
Psychological research shows that “neither special instructions about the nature of exponential growth nor daily experience with growth processes” improved the failure to grasp exponential growth processes.
smiley as Celtic bhoys we are more used to Linear growth….10 in a row ..thing
Braw