Isolation is not your friend

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On a blog last week I wrote, “A point for Michael Nicholson and Dermot Desmond.  Two years ago you appointed a manager who, every time he has spoken this month, has put you in the dock for this one [Almaty].  Brendan’s is the only voice representing the club right now and it is not flattering.

“The lack of a constructive narrative is self-defeating and leaves fans wondering: What’s going on?”

The information vacuum from Celtic, apart from Brendan Rogers’ internecine comments, is not sustainable.  A week later, calls for answers have become deafening.  Celtic fans are not always right in their views, but I always find them easy to speak to (don’t be fooled by a few loons online, they’re pussycats face-to-face).

Plans do not always work out, but when that’s the case, stakeholders (which in this case includes Celtic fans) are best kept informed.  Isolation is not your friend.

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  1. An Dún @ 10:34 am,

     

     

    “I’d like to hear Lawwell explain how a cash reserve allows us to break FSR which caps squad spend at 70% of revenue.

     

     

    If our revenue falls – we must reduce our costs. Cash reserves or not.”

     

     

    Apologies for the delay in getting back…

     

     

    That’s a good question, how does our cash reserves, that come from football income, impact on our FSR limit, of spending 70% of football income?

     

     

    Unfortunately I don’t know – I did ask Auldheid, who looks into these things, about that very thing a couple of years back on SC.

     

     

    Unfortunately, again, I can’t remember his answer… maybe he could help us out.

     

     

    What I would say is the vast majority of Celtic’s revenues are classed as football income – on top of that money from player sales are classed as football income.

     

     

    The clusterguano of a summer window and supporter discontent may impact on our revenues but if we can park that for the moment.

     

     

    We will of course get our 2024/25 figures out in the next two weeks, but my feeling is that we could have used a strong set of results and cash flow position to invest in recruitment early in the window allowing the “quality” new recruits to have a pre-season and be better prepared for the start of the season and the UCL-Qs.

     

     

    Then we could have sold the five or six players that wanted away, several HVPs and be in a very strong position both financially and squad wise for the season ahead.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  2. Cb

     

    But all of that requires alignment between the board and the football club, where the plc puts the first team first ,it’s not there,however a cash mountain has been built up for hell knows why.

  3. bournesouprecipe on

    How bizarre just tried, the new eTicketing link seemlessly into your account, funny when they want money from you.

  4. CHAIRBHOY on 5TH SEPTEMBER 2025 7:10 PM

     

    An Dún @ 10:34 am,

     

     

     

    “I’d like to hear Lawwell explain how a cash reserve allows us to break FSR which caps squad spend at 70% of revenue.

     

    …..

     

     

    It’s really easy ; the cash is generated from football activities , in other words the transfer fees received. No more to see with this.

     

     

    HH

  5. Dessybhoy @ 7:16 pm,

     

     

    Well agreed,

     

     

    We are speculating on a competently run football club, which Celtic are certainly not.

     

     

    Also Celtic PLC have absolutely no desire to spend 70% of football revenues on the club – they prefer to have cash reserves in the PLC than proper investment in the Club.

     

     

    The have been silent on why they want to hoarde such wealth, only using placemen to disseminate fictitious reasons why the money is needed.

     

     

    They are also silent on the fact that they run a recruitment strategy that is not fit for purpose, as regards building a quality foitball team but rather a model that brings player sales revenue to the PLC so the can add it to their cash reserves.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  6. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    “That’s a good question, how does our cash reserves, that come from football income, impact on our FSR limit, of spending 70% of football income?”

     

     

    Here was me thinking you knew everything about everything, but did you know there’s a slight difference between revenue and income?

  7. Dykes looking like a baddie from a Transformers movie…..wish he would transform into a football player

  8. Croftcelt on 5th September 2025 3:35 pm

     

    Regarding players seeing the game against Bayern as the summit of how far they could go with Celtic and the wanting out, there aren’t many, if any, in recent years who have gone to teams who can go further. They may go to higher paying and better footballing leagues but, with the exception of Van Dyck, I cannot think of any who have gone to teams who go further in European competition.

     

     

    ============

     

     

    keiran to arsenal – european semi finalist ?

     

     

    frimpong – european finalist ?

  9. EKBhoy @ 7:22 pm,

     

     

    Yes, the question you quote came from An Dún, so we are looking for clarification for someone with a good understanding of the FSR.

     

     

    Specifically, if I’ve understood him correctly, how spending the cash revenues impact on the 70%.

     

     

    The Blogger Formerly Known As GM @ 7:34 pm,

     

     

    As it happens, I am no polymath.

     

     

    Please, help us out here with your expertise…

     

     

    How does football: income, revenue and reserves impact on the 70% FSR spend?

     

     

    Hail Hail

     

     

     

     

    Hail Hail

  10. Prestonpans bhoys on

    Chairbhoy @7:10

     

     

    From SC today might help:

     

     

    Auldheid

     

    September 5, 2025 4:29 pm

     

    I was aware that the FSR squad ratio although applied annually had a 3 year Cap ,so this is to explain how the FSR Ratio of earnings to squad spend works.

     

     

    However the final line supports my point that withholding funds is self-defeating if the purpose is to get better quality players signed.

     

     

    The answer is not so much to get better quality but to maintain current quality but get players of that quality recruited a lot faster.

     

     

    Here is how FSR works in practice.

     

     

    In UEFA’s Financial Sustainability Regulations (FSR) the limiting factor over 3 years is the average Squad Cost Ratio across the rolling 3-year assessment period.

     

     

    It works like this:

     

     

    3-Year Rolling Assessment

     

     

    UEFA doesn’t just check a single year. They look at a rolling 3-year period (e.g., 2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26).

     

     

    The average Squad Cost Ratio over those 3 years must remain at or below the applicable cap (90% → 80% → 70% depending on the year).

     

     

    To demonstrate: Suppose Celtic’s ratios are:

     

    2023/24: 75%

     

    2024/25: 85%

     

    2025/26: 72%

     

     

    Average across 3 years = (75 + 85 + 72) ÷ 3 = 77.3%

     

     

    Even though 2024/25 was above that year’s 80% cap, the 3-year average is under 80%, so Celtic would still be compliant.

     

     

    The Limiting Factor

     

     

    A single bad year doesn’t automatically trigger sanctions if the 3-year average is compliant.

     

     

    But if two or more years are above the threshold, the 3-year average is much more likely to breach the cap.

     

     

    UEFA can still issue early warnings if a club shows a worrying upward trend, even before the 3-year mark.

     

     

    In short: the limiting factor is the rolling 3-year average Squad Cost Ratio vs. the UEFA cap.

     

     

    This is an example using Celtic’s 2023/24 Annual Report numbers as a proxy for the UEFA Squad Cost Ratio.

     

     

    Celtic 2023/24 — Estimated Squad Cost Ratio

     

     

    Step 1: Football-Related Earnings (Denominator)

     

     

    From Celtic’s 2023/24 accounts:

     

     

    Revenue: £124.6m (made up of matchday, broadcasting, and commercial — all eligible as “football-related earnings”) so £124.6m.

     

     

    Step 2: Playing Squad Costs (Numerator)

     

     

    Celtic don’t break this out cleanly, but we can estimate:

     

     

    Staff costs: £95.4m (2022/23) → £105.4m (2023/24)

     

     

    This covers all employees, not just players. Industry estimates suggest ~80% of staff costs = playing squad + coaching staff.

     

     

    Approx. £84m for playing squad costs in 2023/24.

     

     

    Step 3: Calculate the Ratio

     

     

    Squad Cost Ratio = £84m/£124.6m X100 = 67.4%

     

     

    Step 4: Compare with UEFA Cap

     

     

    2023/24 Cap = 90% → Celtic compliant

     

    2024/25 Cap = 80% → still compliant at 67%

     

    2025/26 Cap = 70% → close, but still under .

     

     

    Celtic’s 2023/24 estimated Squad Cost Ratio =~67%, which means:

     

     

    Well under the 90% cap

     

    Safe under the 2024/25 cap (80%)

     

    Just under the 70% cap for 2025/26 — but leaves little headroom if wages or transfer amortisation rise faster than income.

     

     

    I’m only interested in how things work but if Celtic are in danger of breaching the cap then that might explain the bidding low and selling at best price policy

  11. ins and outs transfer market

     

     

    Arrivals –

     

    Sum: €15.13m

     

    Average age: 23.8

     

    Total market value of arrivals: €45.98m

     

     

    departures –

     

    Sum: €23.32m

     

    Average age: 25.1

     

    Total market value of departures: €43.83m

  12. Prestonpans bhoys @ 8:40 pm,

     

     

    Many thanks, I’ll have a perusal and try to get my head around it, after watching Scotland Nil..:)

     

     

    Hail Hail

  13. bournesouprecipe on

    🪟Summer 2025

     

     

    Transfers in

     

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Doohan – Free

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Tierney – Free

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Osmand – Free

     

    🇸🇪 Nygren – £1.5M

     

    🇯🇵 Inamura – £250K

     

    🇯🇵 Yamada – £1.5M

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Simpson – Pusey – Free

     

    🇧🇪 Balikwisha – £4.5M

     

    🇹🇳 Tounekti – £5.2M

     

    🇳🇬 Iheanacho – Free

     

     

    💷 Total – £ 13M approx

     

     

    👋🏽 Transfers Out

     

     

    🇩🇪 Kuhn – £17M

     

    🇸🇪 Lagerbielke – £2.2M

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Taylor – Free

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Bain – Free

     

    🇵🇱 Nawrocki – Loan

     

    🇭🇳 Palma – Loan

     

    🇦🇺 Tilio – £1.3M

     

    🇰🇷 Kwon – 250K

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Welsh – Loan

     

    🇮🇪 Idah – £7M

     

    🇳🇱 Frimpong – £5M (Sell on fee)

     

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Gannon – Doak £1.2M (Sell on fee)

     

     

    💷 Total – £34M approx

     

     

    Kerching CSC 👍

  14. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    Never looked in to it Chairbhoy and frankly, I don’t really care.

     

     

    What I do know is revenue and income are slightly different and was surprised you didn’t.

     

     

    Not to worry, I’ll continue to give you the benefit of doubt and assume you know everything about everything 👍

  15. Prestonpans bhoys on 5th September 2025 8:40 pm

     

    Chairbhoy @7:10

     

     

     

     

     

     

    From SC today might help:

     

     

    ————-

     

     

    that was very helpful.

     

     

    does have me thinking, if “the rangers” fees reported for signings is correct, well where is the money coming from ? and are they not in breach already ?

  16. the long wait is over on

    !!BADA BING!! on 5TH SEPTEMBER 2025 8:33 PM

     

    https://x.com/caim67/status/1964014077505617978

     

     

     

    Check out how World Class we are.

     

     

    ———

     

     

    Also

     

     

    One of the questions was :-

     

     

    Who do you attend matches with?

     

     

    1. Your children?

     

    2. Other family members ? Or

     

    3. I don’t attend matches.

     

     

    Perhaps those who go alone or with friends don’t count..?!

  17. bournesouprecipe on

    AN TEARMANN on 5TH SEPTEMBER 2025 9:07 PM

     

    BSR 9.02

     

     

     

    Error 404 on that

     

     

    ———-

     

     

    👍We could just sing it together

     

     

    On the 5th Day of September against the Rangers we did play 🎶

     

     

    Hope you’re well 🇮🇪

  18. the long wait is over on 5th September 2025 8:56 pm

     

    !!BADA BING!! on 5TH SEPTEMBER 2025 8:33 PM

     

     

     

     

    https://x.com/caim67/status/1964014077505617978

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Check out how World Class we are.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    ———

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Also

     

     

     

     

     

     

    One of the questions was :-

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Who do you attend matches with?

     

     

     

     

     

     

    1. Your children?

     

     

     

     

    2. Other family members ? Or

     

     

     

     

    3. I don’t attend matches.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Perhaps those who go alone or with friends don’t count..?!

     

     

    —————-

     

     

    looks like an unfinished app, still in development mode, but rushed out to give a look we are getting better.

     

     

    the i dont attend matches ? take them off the databases and mailing list.

  19. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Prestonpans bhoys @ 8:40 pm

     

     

    Brilliant post.

     

     

    Respect.

     

     

    My initial response is one of shock.

     

     

    I didn’t think we were miles under FSR thresholds but I thought we had some decent headroom to play with.

  20. Leaked from affiliation meeting apparently……….probably not worth even reading TBH

     

     

     

    “Evening all. Just an update following the Statement we put out.

     

     

    The CSA asked if we would go to a meeting with the club this morning. We declined and arranged our own meeting for this afternoon.

     

     

    Michael Nicholson started by apologising for the lack of contact between the Club and the committee/delegates. Nothing too surprising was said – they know people are frustrated and admitted communication hasn’t been great. They told us the recruitment team work round the clock trying to get deals over the line, but there are lots of factors that can influence getting them over the line. All targets are identified by PT and BR then they work to get the deals done. They assured us they were not waiting to see if we qualified for the CL before completing any deals. They said they’re still ambitious and want to keep building the squad.

     

     

    They’ve agreed to set up a proper meeting with the delegates soon, which they said have been really useful in the past. Alan’s going to give them a call on Monday morning to get that sorted.

     

     

    We’ll keep you posted once we’ve got a date.”

  21. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Reading some posts tonight I’m reminded of something a wiser, older person shared with me a long time ago.

     

     

     

    If your intent is to find ‘good’ in someone or something … look long enough and hard enough and you are GUARANTEED to find it.

     

     

    …. The same applies to ‘bad’

     

  22. “At one point you were shouting penalty to Rangers that’s what I’m hearing…”

     

    Scott Brown to Peter Looverrand on the Max Johnston “handball” post match

  23. Prestonpans bhoys on

    Back to Basics – Glass Half Full on 5th September 2025 9:42 pm

     

    Prestonpans bhoys @ 8:40 pm

     

     

    I’m postman Pat, that was a C&P from SC , the author is the Oracle that is Auldheid, in relation to a specific Chairbhoy question.

  24. bournesouprecipe on

    PRESTONPANS BHOYS on 5TH SEPTEMBER 2025 10:02 PM

     

     

    Always worthwhile when it’s from Auldheid 👍

  25. Back to Basics – Glass Half Full @ 9:42 pm, Prestonpans bhoys @ 8:40 pm

     

     

    To demonstrate: Suppose Celtic’s ratios are:

     

     

    2023/24: 75%

     

     

    2024/25: 85%

     

     

    2025/26: 72%

     

     

    Average across 3 years = (75 + 85 + 72) ÷ 3 = 77.3%

     

     

    Even though 2024/25 was above that year’s 80% cap, the 3-year average is under 80%, so Celtic would still be compliant.

     

     

    Not very helpful on two accounts…

     

     

    The supposed figures are made up examples, not actual figures.

     

     

    No way were we 85% last season – we sold Matt O’Riley and Kyogo for a start.

     

     

    UCL money, SB money, Merch money.

     

     

    No chance.

     

     

    Also, how does spending reserves impact that? Our reserves were from transfer fees so football income.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  26. Saint Stivs @ 8:47 pm,

     

     

    Well, not at all sure, but R2ngers have posted a loss so many times – can the income from the PE off-set that?

     

     

    Hail Hail

  27. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM @ 8:47 pm,

     

     

    Apologies, I was being facetious, I guessed up didn’t know and didn’t care.

     

     

    Hail Gail

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