The bun fight in Scottish football, where Partick Thistle have taken counsel opinion and, along with other bottom of the table clubs, threaten legal action if the season is brought to a halt without them being saved from the drop, looks impossible to settle soon.
Hearts and Thistle hope for more than a commitment to discuss the league reconstruction change that will save them from the consequences of being so poor this season. Both are set to go to court, if necessary, which, I suppose, is an alternative to using your superior financial muscle to outperform smaller clubs. As things stand, the league will wait until it is safe, then resume, which may delay the start of next season.
There are various event horizons between now and then. Without football, a cash crunch lies ahead for every club. For some, that is likely to be a matter of weeks. Most Scottish clubs will run out of money and available funding by summer. Celtic can afford to sit tight, as can Partick Thistle – if Christine Weir is prepared to make good any shortfall.
Whatever prize money or loans the SPFL can issue is important but it will not change the bigger picture for the majority of clubs in the top flight. There, only Celtic have the reserves or funders on the board, to see this crisis out. The immediate worry for most is to survive three or four months without income, before they can issue season ticket renewals.
Clubs have yet to receive guidance on when attendance at sporting events will be permitted. When that arrives, talk about league reconstruction, with more mouths to feed in the top flight and throughout, will seem like a fantasy.
There will be significantly less money in Scottish football going forward, we will be able to support fewer full time clubs and if resources are not concentrated within a smaller pool, their dilution through an expanded league will lead to many clubs withering on the vine.
We should sit tight and let the various losers squabble.
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Meanwhile in the USofA there are street protests against the lockdown . They seem to cherish their freedom a bit more over there.
Lennybhoy
All good here thanks, hopefully also with you and yours D. Any transfer chat…😉😉🤭🤭
HH
i need to ask as the game at the bigot dome is now no gonny take place 800 celti fans have paid over 50 quid a ticket for the game if celtic have not payed the money up front the fans should be given the money back asap ifthe huns have it what happens its bloody 40 grand hope someone who has a ticket gets in touch with celtic hailhail
:))))))))))))))))))))))))))
13 points clear and around 25 goals superior goal difference……No need to underplay ANYTHING about this season.Infact we should celebrate this season in a way like we have never before when we get chance.Lets rub their manky bad loser noses in it.
I believe they [sevco] had a chance to show some sporting integrity .Of course that is not their suit.
Neil Lennon and Scott Brown deserve extra special praise for guiding this remarkable club to almost new heights….God bless them
FRIESDORFER on 16TH APRIL 2020 9:53 AM
All quiet on the old transfer front.
Keep the Faith!
Hail Hail!
As well as 8.00pm everyone should go out clapping at 9.00pm tonight :)
Greenpinata
“My God , is the only viable and realistic exit strategy ” herd” immunity.”
Short answer: Yes.
Longer answer: As far as the virus is concerned, the genie is out of the bottle and can’t be put back in. It has spread to virtually every country, and it’s now a matter of managing the impact of it both locally/nationally and globally.
Herd immunity isn’t a policy or a strategy, it’s a plain old matter of fact in the virus world, the only question being how you arrive at it. Herd immunity is the point reached when a sufficient proportion of a given population has acquired immunity to it that the virus has nowhere left to go. For this virus, given a reproduction number of 2.3, that proportion is around 60%, assuming that becoming infected once provides immunity (highly probable).
There are two ways to acquire herd immunity: either finding a vaccine and implementing a global vaccination programme; or else the virus will run its course until 60% have been infected.
There is currently no vaccine, and optimistic researchers think it’ll be perhaps 12 months before a vaccine is available in sufficient volume to start* a vaccination programme.
The matter then turns on what to do in the meantime, and different countries have different approaches.
If the virus is allowed to run unchecked, best estimates suggest it’ll kill between 0.3% and 1% of those infected, until 60% of the population has had it. It’s forecast that this would take 3 months and in the UK, between 120,000 and 400,000 people would be killed by the virus. However, such huge numbers of sick people would simply swamp healthcare capacity, and greatly many more would die because of lack of treatment. You’re looking at a ‘bring our your dead’ scenario from the time of the plague.
To prevent this nightmare, the rate of infection needs to be managed below the capacity of healthcare to treat. That’s the purpose of lockdown. Depending on whether you take the 0.3% or 1% mortality rate, you can work out the total number of infections to date and from there, can estimate how far progressed through the population the virus has spread. With around 15,000 dead in the UK so far, you can put the number at between 1.5 million and 5 Million. It’s probably more, but since the scientists haven’t yet established the infection rate, until we get mass antibody testing rolled out we don’t know.
When lockdown is relaxed the virus will start to spread again, and without other measures lockdown will need to be reintroduced to prevent healthcare being swamped. In this scenario, this cycle of lockdown and release will continue until 60% have been infected and herd immunity is acquired. It’ll probably take around 6 cycles over the course of a year, each release being longer than the last as the virus slows.
The impact on the economy, the community, society generally and people individually of keeping most of the population locked down for an extended period of time would be immense, even supposing we can actually sustain ourselves in the interim.
Some countries have taken a different approach. South Korea for example have used mass testing and ICT to identify infected people and trace folk who came into contact with them. So mobile phone locations, credit card data, train ticket purchases, all manner of data is captured and analysed to identify people who may have come into contact with an infected person. All of them are then quarantined for every case identified. It’s mass-surveillance with massive human and IT infrastructure behind it, and it breaches rights and liberties at every turn, but the population continues to go about its daily business, and few folk are dying.
Where in the UK we’ve lost around 15,000 poor souls (and counting), South Korea has lost a little over 200 so far, despite having a larger and earlier initial outbreak.
New Zealand is trying to eradicate the virus by locking down completely and hanging out until there are no further reported cases. Their borders are closed, their people locked down, and they’re hopeful of getting there. They’ve had around 20 new cases reported each day lately, and a total of 9 deaths. When they release lockdown they hope there are no further infected people, the borders will remain closed, and they can go about their business again absent international travel. It’s a difficult trick to pull off, but they’re trying it.
Given that the virus is endemic across the world, both of these approaches are predicated on holding out until a vaccine is developed. That is, keeping the country at large clear of infection until the population can finally be vaccinated.
An alternative to vaccine is an effective treatment. That is, finding a medical/pharmaceutical approach to treating infected people such that they don’t die. As with vaccines, much work is being done on this across the world, with more than 300 clinical trials of various treatments in progress.
If an effective treatment is found, lockdown restrictions can be adapted to suit, and a controlled programme of infection spread and treatment can be managed until the 60% threshold is reached.
In summary, it’s herd immunity or bust. We can acquire herd immunity by vaccination or by infection, and we can be infected in a controlled or uncontrolled manner. A controlled manner with an effective treatment greatly reduces mortality.
Because the virus is now widespread, eliminating it is no longer possible. We now have hard choices to make as to how to manage it.
1) Effective treatment means herd immunity with a greatly reduced mortality rate.
2) Absent a treatment, we need to control the spread of infection by assorted means until either a) 60% have been infected, or b) a vaccine is found and a programme rolled out.
In both scenarios, we acquire herd immunity.
The question now turns to what each country can/might do. A series of lockdowns and releases means inevitably the virus will take its full toll, with this lockdown being the first of 6 or more over the coming year or so. Herd immunity will probably be acquired in this way before a vaccine is ready, but many will die.
Alternatively, I should hope that the massive infrastructure required to put a South Korea approach into effect is now being assembled. Mass surveillance and testing, data analysis and quarantine might breach myriad rights, but will save many lives provided a vaccine or treatment is developed.
A year of restricted rights and invasive surveillance is a price I’m prepared to wager on the researchers and clinicians cracking the virus and developing a treatment or vaccine or both.
Others may take a different view.
Apols for the hopeless rambling.
TBB
Latest hashtag,
BEARS AGAINST BEYONCE.
Class.
Bamboo
“Meanwhile in the USofA there are street protests against the lockdown . They seem to cherish their freedom a bit more over there.”
These freedom fighters??? :-
“Thousands of conservative demonstrators – a number of them armed – have brought chaos and gridlock to the centre of Michigan’s capital to protest over the governor’s stay-at-home coronavirus order.
Ignoring Democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer’s order to keep off the streets to try and reduce the spread of the virus, thousands of protesters, many of them waving Donald Trump banners, poured into Lansing as part of what was termed “Operation Gridlock”.
There they honked their horns and chanted “lock her up”, a slogan the president typically encouraged his supporters to shout at his rallies in reference to Hillary Clinton.
The protesters took over the streets of the centre of the city, and posed for images on the steps of legislative and other government buildings.
The protest was organised by the Michigan Conservative Coalition, which claims the Republican Party has taken an unhealthy turn to the left.”
I’ll take my chances with the Invented Deep State Liberal elite before I listen to the Koresh fringe dedicated to an early onset Rapture.
THE BATTERED BUNNET on 16TH APRIL 2020 10:40 AM
Many thanks for your comprehensive summary. Probably the best explanation I have heard throughout this crisis.
We are attempting to implement social distancing offshore, but it is very difficult and sometimes impossible.
Temperature checks every day and pre aviation travel checks.
But reliance on ” herd” immunity seems the only realistic way forward and your excellent summary defines the terminology and methodology of same.
Cheers and HH.
kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
THE BATTERED BUNNET on 16TH APRIL 2020 10:40 AM
Thank you.
Obviously under ‘sporting integrity ‘ ,they won’t accept any prize money? Maybe donate it to the NHS?
This…..
https://philmacgiollabhain.ie/2020/04/15/the-night-that-mount-florida-erupted/#more-16398
Good call – and hopefully Celtic will adopt the NHS and caring professions as its Charity focus going forward…………..it would be a nice touch and a positive out of this horrible situation.
HH
new article posted.
my point was in response to Bada’s suggestion…
TBB you are 100% correc. The only way to beat covid is to get herd immunity, one way or another. We have a leader who told us to be kind, to stay home and save lives. No one is under the illusion that we can win this easily or first time. We are moving to level 3 after 4 weeks of total lockdown. It isn’t too much different. Even level two will have severe restrictions. Everyone thinks that the sacrifice to save the lives of our people is worth trying. Time will tell whether we get herd immunity through the vaccine or waves of the virus. My wife and two of my girls are in health care so I am hoping for the vaccine. Take care everyone. Stay safe in your bubbles. It will be over one way or another in the next year. When are we getting our 9IAR. 10IAR might be on TV. Hail Hail
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