As Motherwell won their semi-final yesterday against the second most expensively assembled team in Scotland, the penny began to drop with the last hold-outs that Brother Pedro will be remembered as little more than an expensive stop-gap in the attempt to stop Celtic winning 20-in-a-row.
Let’s be clear: Pedro is not in the top two managers in the league, in fact, Celtic, Aberdeen, St Johnstone, Motherwell, Hibs, Hearts, Kilmarnock and Dundee all have demonstrably better bosses. But there was a reason he was appointed late last season, despite better candidates being (under)employed in Perthshire.
Appointing a competent, provincial, manager, like Tommy Wright, would be an acknowledgement that Newco had no illusions of competing with Celtic. In that role, Wright would out-perform Hibs, Motherwell and St Johnstone, and give Aberdeen a run for their money, but he is not an alchemist.
There is a difference when you appoint an exotic as manager, even an incompetent one. Few potential season ticket customers know what you really have with an exotic. He could be incompetent, but you can equally hope that he turns out to be a truly great appointment, with access to hitherto unexploited talent.
There was no point in Newco giving the job to a reliable but unspectacular candidate like Wright. This club needs to propel itself into a position where it competes against an elite Celtic team, and can navigate its way through four Europa League qualification rounds.
If it lowers the Union Jack and raises the White Flag to mark Surrender of league aspirations, its self-image would be destroyed. I could debate the commercial viability of an aspirational Newco with you all day (fanciful), but it appears that even the decision makers at Ibrox regard the viability of a subservient Newco as untenable.
The club faces Hobson’s Choice. Throw money it cannot afford at strategies selected BECAUSE correct due diligence is impossible, or downsize to a point they know will have a negative impact on ticket sales and future income.
20 years ago this week, Rangers beat Dunfermline 7-0 and were hot favourites to win 10-in-a-row, but the business model had a fundamental weakness: the club were haemorrhaging cash. You can debate whether the subsequent liquidation and newco phoenix club is the same or different to the Rangers some of us are old enough to remember.
What is irrevocably true is that Newco is unrecognisable from Rangers in one hugely important aspect: it will not win the league. Ever.
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The reason Sutton made the quip about Tina Turner is because the Huns bus has simply the best blaring out as it arrived at Hampden yesterday. In fact it’s a regular occurrence, here it is at Hamilton.
https://twitter.com/bbcjanelewis/status/913811253595918337
Cringe.
That would have cost the huns 600-700k getting pumped yesterday.52,000 x £28-35 ticket for the final money plus sponsors cash…:)
Bada- 52,000?
Cellick not gettin’ any ole tix at all?
Maks sense tae me, and it maks sense tae Mo.
Still, ole Cyclops can look forward to their share of the Euroloot next year, courtesy of the Timvincibles.
DBBIA- It’s only fair to thank the 38,000 huns who went yesterday, and made us a few quid :)
I expect some of the 38k are also members of the’ R#ng#rs European Travel Club’; aka stealin’ the ole pfennigs off thon deid Clubs eyes.
I wonder if the Mothers will have the cheek to ask for a 50% allocation for the Final?
They should have been renamed Karma FC.
For all the Celtic fans that suffered through the financial doping they gave us James McGrory Paul McStay and Sevco, and they are constrained by the bollocks to suffer perpetual failure.
Watching a team signed in a fortnight from corners of the globe via a dodgy agent was destined to end in tears when they are headed by GLIB who waited till they died before he played his hand the writing was already on the wall.
BBC TV cameras outside the Asbestosdome on a Monday after a semi final demanding better is a nought in the nooze that’ll doom Sevco faster than Caixinha
It’s the hope that kills them.
http://image.noelshack.com/fichiers/2016/14/1459770470-christina-hendricks-hot-body.jpg> The Nooze
https://twitter.com/stvsport/status/922464561789390848
Regarding Moult… He would be a good addition to the squad. A real eye for goal and a grafter. He could do a Griffiths and become a wee diamond. On, and being English, he has no chance of getting called up for internationals, so always available.
Glib and Shameless Liar
I consider myself an optimist and a glass half full ghuy but posts like CCE that he can’t see us losing a game in Scotland for 20 years & Paul that Sevco will never win the League make me cringe.
I one of our draws a few weeks ago there was very strong claims for a penalty against Bitton in injury time.
Had that been given run was over.
Hibs ran us bloody close a couple of weeks back, it will be little short of a miracle if we go undefeated 2 years in a row.
As for Sevco, I enjoy the slagging and the mirth as much as anybody but nobody Paul included can foretell what might happen in the years ahead,
I’m Happy to live in the now & enjoy each game & result as they come along.
We have a tricky tie on Wednesday, I’m certainly not taking a win or a draw for granted & ghuys who do make me feel unwell. PoliteCSC.
Yesterday’s rendition of “Who’s the fenian in the black” was a reference to Pedro Caixinha?
Corkcelt – I have a similar outlook on the ‘hete we go 10 in a row song’. Lets celebrate 6 and look forward to 7 but no more yet. Enjoy EACH one, not just the potential Holy Grail.
Good to see DBBIA and BSR back posting. Oh for the days of Charlie Mulgrews baby and the Martians…… ;-)
Corkcelt-
The Bitton penalty claim?
Against the ole Maryhill Magyars.
We won 1-0, so if they had scored we would still be unbeaten but would have dropped 2 points.
I also think some of the games where we have been run close have featured a fair number of fringe players in the starting XI.
Corkcelt- this season, more teams are getting past our MF and getting at the back 4 more often IMO, I think the lack of a settled team is a factor in this HH
Oh and before I get back to working I mentioned yesterday my astonishment on learning Motherwell were 5/1 to win.
Well I am honestly equally astonished that Aberfeen are the same odds for Wednesday night. Although this time I clearly wont be betting!
Wee cousin,79 , in hospital after a ‘massive’ stroke so any prayers and candles would be much appreciated.
We were on the Rooftop Party on STV many years ago as among the best jivers in West Scotland.
Then she was 4 feet 10 inches and we could do all the ‘throws’ you could think of.And still keep the beat!!!!
Took my Fatima water bottle to hospital so you never know.
Going up again this evening so will let you all know!
DEO GRATIAS.
Hoopslegend Cha Mul Grew’s bairns are now safe and sound in Blackburn, Lancashire.
Where there are no wee Martians, as they fell through the 4,000 holes.
KIKINTHENAKAS on 23RD OCTOBER 2017 1:34 PM
Is Louis Moult last seasons Liam Boyce or the seasons previous Billy McKay?
Discuss
Kikinthenakas
—————————————-
Good question, difficult to answer.
One thing is for certain though – He’s no Leigh Griffiths or Moussa Dembele.
HH.
There is room in Scottish football for 42 profitable clubs, more if you consider the aspirants in the Lowland and Highland leagues. Certainly the majority of senior clubs today require no resort to shareholders or creditors to fund their business year to year, particularly since the clubs’ debt legacies of the 2000s has largely now been cleared. Ross County are, as far as I’m aware, the last club in Scotland to operate on an owner-funded model. None have any significant external debt.
However, Scottish football in its current state is not big enough – as an economc entity – to be able to support more than one “successful” club. In this sense, I’m defining “successful” as winning a major trophy every year, winning the league once every 3 seasons, and participating in the revenue-generating stages of European competition.
I’m ignoring relativity in this, and looking only at the absolute. There’s no denying that St Johnstone winning the Scottish Cup was a great success for the club, celebrated and savoured but its supporters, equally say, Edinburgh City FC winning promotion to the SPFL. These are successes relative to expectation, relative to scale.
A football club breaking even, competing at its ‘level’, enjoying the occasional moment of euphoria, is a success in itself, one to be celebrated. Absolute success though is being the best, and there’s little room at the top for the best.
Aberdeen, Hibs, Hearts, others, will each win a major trophy now and again, and perhaps with some redoubling of cleverness and effort, periodically participate in the group stages of the Europa League, but in the current environment, none has the wherewithal to win the league.
And that’s crucial: Winning the league not only defines the best football club in the country, it opens the gate to the Champions League, and for as long as Scotland is permitted just one club entered, and for as long as the prize fund remains so significant, “successful” is in effect defined by participation in its group stage.
And so to Sevco. We’ll see in due course what their top league business model looks like when their accounts to June 2017 are published. It’s likely though that the cost of fielding a team good enough to finish 3rd in the top division, together with the cost to sustain the footballing and business infrastructure that surrounds it, exceeds by some considerable sum the revenue generated from ticket sales, prize money, sponsorship, retail and the other income streams available. The loss for the year will be significant. I expect total revenue for the year to be around £30M, with a loss posted of perhaps £5M.
With the club losing money and losing games, this is not a successful outfit. Question is, can it become one?
Sevco’s total income for the year will approxiate to one third of Celtic’s, creating a gross revenue ‘gap’ (mind it) of around £50-60M per annum. There are doubtless ways for Sevco to increase revenue – the retail operation for example, better commercial deals too – but ticket sales and prize money represent the biggest sources of reliable income, and these are close to optimised.
Access to the Europa League offers a considerable revenue opportunity, but it is not ‘bankable’ in the sense that obtaining it is predictable. As Sevco found out this summer, Progres in Europe is fraught with difficulties. At best, the club might qualify through to the group stages every other year, which would provide a net increase in revenue of around £4M.
In the round, Sevco, with a highly-performing business leadership, and Europa League group stage football every other year, can expect to generate around £40M of revenue per annum.
Of that, around £20M is spent on infrastructure and business support, leaving much of the balance available to buy and wage footballer players and coaching staff.
With, say, £15M available for first team wages, a sustainable Sevco will have around double the budget of Aberdeen, who have double the budget of St Johnstone.
Celtic’s wage bill was £52M last season (including all staff). The natural pecking order determined by wage budget sees Celtic some distance ahead of a pack comprising the best of the rest.
When Sevco’s predecessor club was “successful”, the annual wage bill was around £40M (including assorted tax scams). With such a budget, they were able to win the league 5 times in 12 attempts to 2012, and participated in European football.
It should be noted that, during this period, in addition to the money (£53M) saved through tax scams, they also traded at a cumulative loss of £120M in the period. The losses were covered by Dave King (£20M) and HBOS (via MIH), both losing the debt owing to them when the club was liquidated.
In the round, a “successful” Rangers required all revenue channels to be fully optimised, and additionally, a further £15M cash of other people’s money each season to pay for it all.
Fast forward to today, and a ‘successful’ Sevco needs to be able to compete with a successful Celtic. To enable competition, Sevco needs to find around £20M more free cash (free of costs) each season to wage footballers.
Such a spend, with a fair wind and a good manager, might see the new club win the league every other season – a 50:50 chance in a Sevco-hopeful world.
In turn, winning the league offers a ticket to the Champions League qualifying lottery; another 50:50 chance.
Qualifying into the group stages of the Champions League delivers £30M free revenue.
Four seasons of supplementing revenue with a further £20M of ‘investment’ – might deliver two league championships and one Champions League windfall. A blunt pencil on the back of a fag packet shows:
Total shareholder ‘investment’: £80M
producing
Total increase in revenue: £30M
Total loss: £50M
It doesn’t work. Even if it “works” on the pitch – league wins and UCL – it doesn’t work financially. At the end of the cycle, the shareholders have burned £50M, with the prospect of the same again to look forward to over the following 4 year cycle. And what if it doesn’t work on the pitch, like Ally McCoist’s short tenure?
There is no sustainable business plan that supports a second ‘successful’ team in the current environment of Scottish football.
To make it work, either the Scottish football landscape changes dramatically, or, in the mind of those who support the new club, the word ‘successful’ acquires a new definition.
Can I suggest, “Solvent” would be a good place to start.
Quite clever of Brendan to comment on some of the hammer throwing ( from both teams) which went unpunished yesterday. No harm in drawing attention to the fact that Motherwell will probably try the same rough ’em up approach in the final.
No harm in a wee dig at the officials who let it pass either, although whether it will make any difference…………..
CCB – Hope the wee cousin makes a full and speedy recovery.
God bless her.
HH.
Asked a Motherwell fan what he thought of the Hibernian penalty on Saturday;
” Stonewaller,……….. Boyata totally cleaned him out ”
Anecdotes CSC
CORKCELT on 23RD OCTOBER 2017 3:22 PM
@@@@@@
Totally agree . Paul please tell me you didn’t pen that leader . Naw You didn’t . Unfortunately they are in intensive care , but as yet not finished . They have big money fans , someone will stump up . And btw I make no apology for wanting them gone forever . On Wednesday night we have a real tough game on our hands , we will need to play well , imho ,better than we have recently , I think we have yet to hit the form we achieved last season . If the game is close , then the mib will play a significant part on our unbeaten run . But as always just my thoughts . HH
Glen D-https://stv.tv/sport/football/1400543-rodgers-linesman-apologised-to-boyata-for-penalty-decision/
https://stv.tv/sport/football/1400543-rodgers-linesman-apologised-to-boyata-for-penalty-decision/
Just watched extended highlights of the Sevco Murderwell game. Well a team of hard working big journeymen. A bunch of bruisers with Bowman bruiser in chief, a bit of a thug. Their shining star is of course Moult. Can’t see him ending up at Sevco, too good for that. Is he good enough for us, at the moment he would not be first choice by any means. Sevco all over the place, seem to favour the longball more kick and hope rather than tactics. Dorran, Alves had their day, on a final pension scheme. Hibs would have beaten any of them. We will beat Well in the final, Steve MacLean a absolutely poor referee Bowman and Alves should have walked. Pedro a complete clown. Robinson a decent manager. Hope we get the same allocation for the final as the Huns got yesterday. By the way, apart from Sevco getting beaten it was a crap game of football
What is irrevocably true is that Newco is unrecognisable from Rangers in one hugely important aspect: it will not win the league. Ever.
Paul,
Not only does above have a Hunnish ring about it, ever is a very long time.
!!BADA BING!! on 23RD OCTOBER 2017 2:47 PM
That would have cost the huns 600-700k getting pumped yesterday.52,000 x £28-35 ticket for the final money plus sponsors cash…:)
I recall being derided on here when I questioned how much failures to reach domestic cup finals was costing Celtic.
Jimtim- I think Moult could be a useful 3rd striker, for about 500k, no great risk, knows the league, can hold the ball up well.LG and MD had a few injuries recently, so he would get a few games.
Quonno- my fag packet maths, i wonder if it is documented how much we got for winning LC last season? HH
Bada
Is it me or JimTim your posting to
With his comments Brendan has marked Motherwells and Bowmans card for the Final and shrewdly dropped a grenade that deflects the discussion onto the referee and away from Pedro. Genius.
!BADA BING!! on 23RD OCTOBER 2017 3:59 PM
Quonno- my fag packet maths, i wonder if it is documented how much we got for winning LC last season? HH
I do not question your maths.
MY often made point was that even in diddy cups, valuable income was lost by not getting to finals.
CCB,
Thoughts with you, and your family, and hopes and prayers for a good result for your wee cousin.
CCB, thoughts and prayers for your cousin’s swift recovery.
COSY CORNER BHOY
Prayers said for your wee cousins full recovery!
Keep us posted please.
thanks for that post tbb