Marginal advantages eventually come a cropper

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One story which caught my eye last week was that we have 33 players out on international duty over this break, from a pool of 51 employed professionals (and that includes Derk Boerrigter). 13 Celtic players will join Scotland youth teams, with a further 6 going to other countries.

We know we can’t compete as we once did in the transfer market, so getting and developing the best youth talent has become an important part of the strategy.

All of this groundwork is for the long-term, though. Getting three points each Saturday and preparing for the challenges ahead is another question.

There was a moment on Saturday when Aberdeen manager, Derek McInnes, could have turned to his assistant and said, “If Killie hold on for another two minutes, the league is in our own hands”. That’s how close things got. Tom Rogic’s immaculate strike punctured that notion, before McInnes’ team’s second half collapse at Fir Park.

Now Aberdeen need us to drop seven points more than them, or eight if you consider goal difference. It’s not going to happen.  Aberdeen didn’t just slip up on Saturday due to a couple of defensive lapses, this result has been in the post for months.  They clawed their way into contention by gaining a series of marginal advantages – they haven’t won a game by more than a single goal since before Christmas – 14 games ago!

This season they have been ‘everyone’s favourite second team’ who have only just got over the line for three months of the season.  This is a statistical anomaly.  A more regular distribution of chances created and converted would have seen them win several of those games comfortably, but winning far fewer games.  Their dopplegangers in England, Leicester City, are benefiting from a similar phenomenon.  Both teams’ form could drop off a cliff next season, but the chances of either improving win ratios, if not performances, are slight.

Leicester are favourites to win in England because the behemoths, whose spending-power dwarfs most others, have been unable to dig deep to find a dirty win often enough.  Like Celtic’s on Saturday.  That, as we will soon declare, is why we’re champions!

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458 Comments

  1. Noticing a lot more stories about the harsh stories RD has to face compared to other managers in the spHell and beyond.

     

     

    ie mcinnes and that rankers manager etc etc.

     

     

    It has been long overdue, we need to raise a ruckus on this point.

     

     

    It has only been pointed out on the Celtic Medhia thus far but thats as far as we need to take it, as sure as honey attracts bees, the rest of the spHell fans will soon take notice.

     

     

    More to the point the Celtic fans that dont get exposed to this type of medhia will soon take notice, and wake up.

  2. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Thomthetiim

     

    If you have Sftb number I can pass it via him

  3. eddieinkirkmichael on

    Matt Stewart, your great wee poem brought back some great memories for me. Just before Maloney scored from about 2 miles(by the time my youngest grandson hears this story it’ll be 3 miles) away from the hun goal I had to go to toilet, with back to crowd “excuse me. excuse me” as I made my way along the row, then all hell broke loose and I was pushed forward, trapping my leg between 2 seats as I fell into the row in front. It took about 2 mins for anyone to notice me lying upside down with my leg trapped in between the seats.

  4. Saint Stivs says SACK THE BOARD on

    Fourgreenfiels.

     

     

    Watching rge crossmaglen.

     

     

    Excellent . ta for highlighting that.

  5. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    WITS

     

     

    I have sent a text to SFTB, asking him to give you my mobile number.

  6. reading though some of todays blog… I see quite a few sticking the boot in to our captain.

     

     

    Fair enough. The truth of the matter is he hasn’t been anywhere near his best this last 4 weeks.

     

     

    But, I’m giving our captain the benefit of the doubt. Cut him some slack so to speak.

     

     

    His style of play has been high intensity for as long as we know. He’s also had some serious injuries, and physically he’s absorbed some hard hits. I think, some of us (not all) as fans could exert a greater degree / level of understanding as to what it takes to get fully match sharp, fully fit after a lengthy lay-off.

     

     

    He was brought on against Ross County, quite clearly ahead of schedule. He wasn’t ready. In true form he has made himself available for all consecutive games since the cup defeat, and to his detrement.

     

     

    but the guy deserves a greater degree of respect from some quarters

  7. Not been on much lately or SFM for that matter , tbh Im finding the whole resolution 12 or rather Celtics stance in it all very very depressing . So great news that real Celtic men are joining BRTH in signing up to try and move it fwd after Regans outrageous comments. Never thought our Club custodians would ever be such cowards , sooner they vacate the premises the better. Also love the Idea on twitter of not renewing season tickets but instead paying “at the gate” . IMHO it is gonna take something like this before Celtic and hopefully more clubs finally act and realise that the SFA MUST be cleansed .

  8. Sorry for my stupidity but I have shares and am willing to assist the effort re Res 12.

     

    What exactly do I do. Is this mandate ghuys are signing an online mandate or do you have to get hold of one physically. Once mandate signed what next do you do?.

  9. Corkcelt

     

    See this post on page 3 –

     

    Brogan Rogan Trevino and Hogan supports Oscar Knox, MacKenzie Furniss and anyone else who fights Neuroblastoma on 21st March 2016 2:43 pm

  10. EddieinK..

     

     

    I wrote that as I was stranded in Rio because of the Icelandic Volcano eruption.

     

     

    Each morning I arose and if BA had not got a flight available, then had to make a decision…Ipanema or Copacabana… (Rioskorrie of this parish will confirm)…after two weeks stranded I became an expert at women’s beach volleyball.

     

     

    And then that effin volcano stopped bubblin.

     

     

    I got back to Glasgow via Heathrow and The North London CSC, and found that every morning I had To decide ….Sharkey’s or the Whistlin’ Kirk.

     

     

    Tried to start a Women’s beach volleyball team as well. FAILED.

     

     

    Hail Hail

     

     

    Matt

  11. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    SFTB,

     

     

    Thanks for that.

     

     

    As you know, security is paramount when I travel. A national security issue!

  12. eddieinkirkmichael on

    voguepunter on 21st March 2016 9:25 pm

     

    Can anyone come roon to my hoose to help me find my passport?needed before

     

    Saturday morn :O(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((———–

     

     

     

    Where’s the last place you would look? It’s usually there ;)

  13. RUGGYGMAN on 21ST MARCH 2016 9:42 PM

     

    reading though some of todays blog… I see quite a few sticking the boot in to our captain.

     

     

    Fair enough. The truth of the matter is he hasn’t been anywhere near his best this last 4 weeks.

     

     

    But, I’m giving our captain the benefit of the doubt. Cut him some slack so to speak.

     

     

    His style of play has been high intensity for as long as we know. He’s also had some serious injuries, and physically he’s absorbed some hard hits. I think, some of us (not all) as fans could exert a greater degree / level of understanding as to what it takes to get fully match sharp, fully fit after a lengthy lay-off.

     

     

    He was brought on against Ross County, quite clearly ahead of schedule. He wasn’t ready. In true form he has made himself available for all consecutive games since the cup defeat, and to his detrement.

     

     

    but the guy deserves a greater degree of respect from some quarters

     

     

    – See more at: http://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/marginal-advantages-eventually-come-a-cropper/comment-page-7/#comment-2798939

     

    =================

     

     

    Fair point well made.

     

     

    But he has looked so out of sorts and he has been bullied out the game so much recently then it has been hard to take.

     

     

    If he is playing at a disadvantage then fair play to him.

  14. FourGreenFields on

    Saint Stivs

     

     

    Seen it mentioned earlier mate , so just put up a wee reminder.

     

    Really enjoyed it myself .

     

    HH

  15. What is the Stars on

    Thomthetim/ BT

     

    Just a little caveat re my number

     

    BT passed it on to Cowie as ending 86362

     

    It ends 86352. So watch for that

     

    Thanks

  16. GreeninbingleyinOslo on

    Voguepunter

     

     

    There was a bit of chat on here about strange things you find in the fridge…

  17. blantyretim is praying for the Knox family on

    Wits

     

    I copied and pasted the number so apologies for error

  18. Clunks

     

     

    he’s 30… which I know isn’t over the hill.

     

    But it is an age, where you start to realise that your body doesn’t quite repair /respond, maybe the way you were used to throughout your 20’s.

     

    He probably felt o.k the first couple of games back. But naturally you then regress, before eventual progress.

  19. macjay1 for Neil Lennon on

    clunks on 21st March 2016 9:59 pm

     

     

    and Ruggy

     

     

    If you guys are correct about the reasons Broony appears to be somewhat below par, particularly if fitness is the principle issue, then you would have to wonder why he is chosen to play .

  20. Ruggygman

     

     

    He has been asked to hold too big and area for a fit man of 21 never mind a busted up man of 30!

     

     

    When you combine him with the mobility of bitton and no other cover then its easy to see wht he has been exposed.

     

     

    The system Celtic play make it hard on our players.

     

     

    I saw a few weeks ago that our new defensive midfielder Kristoffer Ajer got a knee injury in a recent game, any news on that?

     

     

    Although he is a young guy he comes in to fill a position that we have struggled with since Wanyama got his wish to go down south.

  21. TBJ says Wee Oscar Knox is in heaven with the angels on

    Ruggyman

     

     

    If Scott Brown thinks 30 is tough wait until his body hits 30

     

     

    I still think he needs that haircut

  22. macjay1 for Neil Lennon

     

     

    That was my first thought. My second was, who the hell else is there to play there???

     

     

    Not many players in our squad can match up to a half fit broonie…

  23. Macjay1

     

     

    simply put, given Ronny’s devotion towards 4-2-3-1, … its a case of needs must. Or put another way an evaluation of the alternatives.

     

     

    Stefan Johansen : Currently injured, but when available not disciplined enough to play the defensive mid role

     

    Charlie Mulgrew : better at centre half

     

    Calum McGregor : C’mon, the bhoy is an attacking mid

     

    Bitton : currently partners Brown in the defensive 2 (another struggling to get back up to speed.)

     

     

    Then basically we have 23 attacking midfielders.

  24. macjay1 for Neil Lennon on

    clunks on 21st March 2016 10:16 pm

     

     

    You`re right for sure.

     

    I just think of the number of midfielders we have.

     

    Howbout Barry Robson :-)

     

     

    Broony just deserves to be ” looked after’ , I feel.

     

    A stalwart for years.

  25. Delaneys Dunky on

    WITS

     

     

    Look forward to meeting you at Saint Kevin’s on Friday afternoon. Barca v Celtic youth game got my son buzzing before we both visit Aviva for first time for Ireland v Swiss match.

     

    HH

  26. macjay1 for Neil Lennon on

    ruggygman on 21st March 2016 10:21 pm

     

     

    Agreed,mate.

     

    A squad of 33 , I`m told .

     

    And nobody to take Broony`s place. ( And I don`t mean fill his boots )

     

    Dereliction of duty on somebody`s part.

     

     

    I feel a sense of temporary relief after Saturday.

     

    Optimism , however , escapes me.

     

     

    Nice chatting,lads.

     

    Work beckons.

     

    Noisily.