Celtic always had the look of winners last night, but until Odsonne Edouard pounced on the rebound from Ryan Christie’s shot, the outcome was in the balance. We are going to face a lot of packed defences like that this season, though fortunately or not, that could be the last we see of them in the Europa League.
Christie was back to his best. I know his stats are far from impressive and he is criticised (by others) for his decision making, but I spent almost three years during Brendan Rodgers time wanting someone to mix it up. Take shots that would force the keeper to work or a defender to block, or play the low percentage pass that we all know is going to miss most of the time, but will result in loose balls in dangerous areas.
Those poor stats are a consequence of randomness, which is something we loved in Frank McGarvey, but that was before the stats came along to both inform and confuse. Stats are all about interpretation, which is the real lesson of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball for those who never read the book, or those who did, but didn’t understand it.
I tried most of the second half to figure out what changes Neil Lennon made at halftime that freed up Jeremie Frimpong. During the first half, he was so well shackled, I considered the Sarajevo left back as a possible recruit. At the break, the suggestion was made to me, maybe he is better as an impact player?
Sarajevo certainly opened up at the break, which may have helped, but Jeremie was back at his impactful self during the second period. Credit also to Greg Taylor, who had his best game in a Celtic shirt.
I’m still pretty gutted about not being in the Champions League and at the manner of our exit, but Pot 1 seed in the Europa is an important place to land. Last week we spoke about how it was to our advantage that all domestic rivals also reach the group stage. We didn’t want them having a week to plan games against St Mirren etc., while we traverse the Continent. Not this season.
That kind of left hemisphere thinking was nowhere to be found once kick offs were underway last night. You can’t fake this stuff, it is just not possible to subvert the tribal instinct (which is why nationalism is so potent, and why Celtic is my only identity). But, in a crisp and sunny autumnal morning, logic is back on top. No one will get an easy pass to the title this season, including Celtic.
Uefa’s methods of seeding have never been perfect, this is not tennis, but those pots are full of variance. I’m hoping to avoid sides from the big nations. Farewell, Copenhagen, Basel, Sporting, Rosenborg, Legia (sorry, Zbyszek) and yes, even Galatasaray. Strong sides are out of Europe, the potential to join them was real.
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gene
Now why does that not surprise me?
Bona fide old school!
I’ve. Still got cards and a couple of bobbins of fusewire – haven’t used them for anything electrical for years – they have been out to good use in some of the Trout flies I tie.
Fascinating Rhythm.
Its got me on the Move.
Driving me in?
Midmitch. 11.34.
Yes, He said a circuit break only reduces R by a small amount, ear .3/4.
The whole idea of it is to reduce R below 1.
Therefore if R is 1.7 it doesn’t work, as it will only reduce it to est 1.3.
shut that Window Yesterday.com
MM – the plonks youth or ‘cash cows’ as the Uni Managers like to see them were conned into returning – they were promised a blend of face to face and on-line tuition to ensure they left home – as as soon as the fees and rents hit the bank accounts of the Uni’s and their landlords the on-line signs went up and kids duped into returning to Petri dishes called ‘halls’ of residence – shared kitchens, shared toilets, narrow corridors, no washing machines – I lived in one. They had no chance. Your attack on these conned youngsters detracts from your fair points regarding testing.
HH
JIMMYNOTPAUL
That’s pretty much my understanding of it. Thanks for posting.
TBH, while the pubs etc remain open and compliance with the assorted rules remains mixed, any benefit from a mini lockdown would inevitably be short term.
It might well be that there’s such a reset every 8 weeks or so over the winter, a sort of 2 weeks on lockdown, 6 weeks off type cycle, depending on how effective such a measure is. As with most things with this virus, we don’t know enough, evidence is thin, and there’s more hope than expectation in much of the approach.
I can’t find any evidence that support’s Leitch’s comments on effectiveness and the R>1>R issue, although it sounds plausible. What’s clear is that the testing and tracing system lacks the scale and process speed to cope with the numbers now, and despite current measures the numbers will continue to get bigger.
We know big lockdowns work to reset the numbers, and trying out mini lockdowns at a given levels of prevalence seems like a valid experiment. It would take UK Treasury support to implement though, and that’s perhaps a bigger issue than any expected movement of R.
The alternatives are do nothing and watch the inevitable unfold again, or do other stuff tbd.
Aside that, the Fitba season is fecked. There’s simply no space in the calendar to fit in all the inevitable postponements, and that doesn’t factor for the consequences of any mini lockdowns on the fixture list.
The likelihood is that the league will be decided by executive decision again. Brace! Brace!
TBB
JRS @ 11.57
Plooky youth — there was an attempt at humour in there somewhere.
JNP @ 11.51
I fear he is being sold a pup by his techies.
The SG response to CoViD19 has been poor at just about every level.
Their modelling looks very very hooky.
The don’t seem to understand the basics of the disease.
Or they are over complicating the situation — usual comfort blanket of those lacking in confidence and expertise.
Or they are running the flu model again …
MADMITCH on 3RD OCTOBER 2020 11:34 AM
JNP @ 9.41
Have we been told why the R number needs to be in the range of 1.3 for a “Circuit Break / Mini Lockdown” to work?
Why is 1.3 OK but 1.7 is not?
We should have tested the teachers before the schools went back to weed out the asymptomatic.
And did the 5th and 6th years while we were at it.
We should have tested the lecturers and the halls staff before the unis went back.
_______________________________________________
It’s very difficult to see the whole picture. Experts seem at odds with one another on the long term effectiveness of a ‘circuit-breaker’.
As for the schools, the picture emerging is not as bleak as some would say. On 1 September, in Scotland, 205 school teachers were off with Covid and another 229 adult school staff were off work for the same reason. By 15 September, 164 teachers in Scotland were off with Covid and 77 non-teaching staff.
The situation would appear to be improving. But this is only the start of the autumn.
Jason Leitch did blot his copybook with twice changed advice to students wishing to return home for weekend visits.
For me, at any rate, there is precious little practical difference between the competencies of the various governments in the UK.
Mind you, I would not fancy any of their jobs.
You have to PLAY this wee Guy.
Jeremie
CELTIC MAC on 3RD OCTOBER 2020 10:48 AM
👏👏👏👏👏 very good 👍
Martin Boyle would be a good signing for us.Electric pace,can score,great crosses of the ball.Probably a better uption at set pieces than Christie.A bid and a loan player to Hibs.I know Lenny was interested before,and the boy is having a very good season.That pace away from home in Europe,a handy weapon.
Just a thought.
Thinking about it, the whole thing about R in the context of a mini lockdown seems decidedly questionable.
R measures transmission. It doesn’t matter what level R is at beforehand, if infected people do not meet other folk who are susceptible, R drops immediately.
This is borne out in the data from March/April. Before lockdown Rt was estimated at 2.5-3 (higher in some areas). By 30th March it was estimated at 0.8. Bang! Just like that.
It’s not about R, or certainly not R in isolation. Prevalence is the thing: How any folk are infectious before a lockdown, and how many folk will be infectious at the end of it. The objective has to be to bring prevalence – and therefore new infections – down to a level that can be managed by the testing and tracing system.
If the objective is to get prevalence down to a given level, then perhaps they think – given current/anticipated prevalence – that two weeks would be insufficient.
Looking at it from that perspective, I don’t think Leitch has helped our understanding with his comments.
Melbourne Mick! The short version ! She went on public transport knowing she tested positive with Covid
Did I read somewhere that the entire Kilmarnock squad have to self isolate for two weeks because some players tested positive for Covid 19? Why is that being advised, are they not being tested two or three times per week? If so, then surely if they have two consecutive negative tests then self isolating isn’t required. Also here in Ireland in accordance with WHO latest advice self isolation is for 10 days not 14, strange.
MM – plooky and plonky – whits predictive text among friends 😀
By the way after returning to work after lockdown 1 I did not get the right experience of a “freshers week” or indeed when I started out on working life after school and a necessity to leave and start earning money, dont give me any of this “I have not had the Uni Experience” because they missed out on getting blooterd and making an arse of themselves.
Also some had been in isolation for 2 days when they said it was affecting their mental health, how bad is that using that as an excuse.
Unfortunately 1 of these “freshers” could be the next Boris, God help us all, as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike.
D :)
melbourne mick
See Wishaw Tim above.
Given I gave her a mention….not 100% about the chronology, but at some point earlier this week or before, Margaret Ferrier MP for Rutherglen, exhibited some Corona Virus like symptoms, travelled to London, was tested, spoke in the House of Commons, (thanking NHS workers for their efforts in dealing with those infected), discovered she was in fact Covid 19 positive, and then travelled back to Glasgow by train, before going to ground…She is or was an SNP MP, wee Nicola went bananas and her to resign, which was above her remit, Ian Blackford (Party Leader in the House) withdrew the whip, so to speak, so no longer SNP but still as I understand it, an MP. Facing police action.
melbourne mick
as far as i can make out.
farrier- snp mp for rutherglen
– as usual they would be up and down to westminster
she had symptoms and took a test
(now if you take a test you are isolating for 14 days/or if you have a negative you carry on with life
she was positive
– went t qestminater_train down and up
– made a speech
then it comes out she was positìve
rough summary
personifies the lack of knowledge at top
she is still mp
party whip withdrawn
if she had a brain she would resign
a numpty of highest order
hope that barbi was good mick.had me salivating
hh
–
mcphailboy
all club tests are private.
-so when they have a positive test it is nhs verified.
nhs contact guideline say contact within group/bubble for other team members
must be 14 days isolation.this covers any potential incubation period of virus.
hope all good bout town
hh
MCPHAIL BHOY
Here in Scotland, those who test positive require to isolate for 10 days, while their close contacts require to isolate for 14 days.
In the Kilmarnock case, they’ve had 6 first team players test positive, and the health authority view is that the remaining players are ‘close contacts’, hence why they’re required to isolate.
As I understand it , the reasoning is along the following lines:
– Infected persons are most infectious in the two days before and two days after symptoms appear.
– On average symptoms appear five days after exposure.
– However, it is observed that some people develop symptoms up to 14 days after exposure.
– Testing is unreliable in the first few days after exposure, and it’s only when the virus is reproducing in the host and ‘shedding’ from cells that the test picks it up reliably.
– The isolation limits are established accordingly.
A double test system would be effective in this scenario, but you’d need the second test at about day 12 after exposure to be sure to catch everyone. In that context, it’s simpler – and cheaper – to have folk quarantine for 14 days and provided they’re symptom-free at that point, it’s got the same reliability as a negative test.
As I understand it…
MP’s are on 82k a year plus expenses, allowances, free accommodation in London….I think she might stick it out….
But she has not had the right “experince” of being an MP.
D :)
TBB 12.20.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
That makes a lot more sense to me.
MM,
Students are academically clever, although they may lack common sense at times.
They will know the stastics and probability.
Subsequently there may be a train of thought that if they get the virus then they isolate, however they are in isolation anyway.
So they got to a rave, they pick up the virus, ( They may not know, but a test will inform them ) they isolate and then they go home, virus free with a dose of antibodies and T cells.
Is that thinking so wrong ?
At least it’s a feasible plan with an exit strategy.
HH.
Greenpinata
Dunno if it works as an exit strategy, but if your objective was to get loads of 18-21 year olds infected, packing them into halls of residence during freshers’ week would do the trick.
TBB,
True.
Thank you ghuy’s re Ferrier, seems to me a case of ” do you know
who I am ” syndrome.
And the answer obviously is ” if you don’t know, how should we?
Down to single figures here in Melbourne, incredible effort by all
Melburnians but… but… hot weekend ahead crowds heading to
the beach ?
Watch this space.
H.H. Mick
Melbourne Mick ! Guess which Mp was most vocal in Cummings t
To get sacked ! Yip wee mags
Loved the interest in my barbie, strange to think in all those
years in Bonny Scotia, could never get it right.
Maybe it was the weather? even built my own brick and stainless
steel one, but just never used it.
Now it’s a case of barbie dinner, don’t think the oven has been
on since ,well don’t know.
Anyhows just to get your taste buds tantalising, after the last input
of chicken stock, the green lipped mussels were added, a few
Calamari, clams, and a dressing of coriander.
Fatbassasareuscsc.
H.H. Mick
Any transfer news?
LENNYBHOY and CATMAN have been quiet for a wee while.
Mibbe today’s the day!
Melbourne Mick
I can understand the aprehension re crowded beaches but, as I look out my Arbroath window onto a miserable, wet day, this bit ` hot weekend ahead ` makes me feel just a wee bit envious.
HOT SMOKED
Never decry Arbroath, spent many a night there on my way home
supposedly, lol, and still miss many of the Bhoys I toiled with from
there, hardy Bhoys.
H.H. Mick
WISHY TIM
Think any politician knows when to strike,
H.H. Mick
Mick
Not Arbroath I am decrying; it`s the weather when compared with ` hot weekend ahead ` !!
I moved here 13 years ago and have had no regrets.
Talking of Arbroath- I see that your miniature railway is set to close.
They’re even downsizing what is already miniature
SFTB
As grandpa pig would say
“It’s not a toy train it’s a miniature railway”
Peppa pig CSC