Moneyball student of the game

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The extent of Celtic’s pursuit of Ronny Deila can be seen from the fact that Peter Lawwell established a false identity before setting up a Norwegian football blog in early 2012 to allow him to pen this article titled, The Awesomeness of Ronny Deila.  There is a chance the blog wasn’t written by our CEO, but the appreciation of Ronny’s talent is clear.

No deal has been concluded, so it would be a mistake to get too worked up yet, but the fact that we have got to this stage clarifies where we are, and are not, looking.

Neil Lennon resigned two weeks ago and a whole series of names, most of whom are freely available and would be delighted to accept the Celtic job, have been hotly tipped by media and bookies alike.  Celtic will not be appointing the likes of Owen Coyle.  Suggestions, by many who like to knock the club, that they will make a dash for season ticket cash by big name are also wrong.

Roy Keane was a serious contender, wanted by some within the club.  He was in pole position a week ago, forcing those who only days earlier had proclaimed with great triumph that Neil resigned due to budget constraints (he didn’t) to re-write their script, but Roy had other plans.  As did some at Celtic.

The club have been busy looking for an intelligent, technically gifted, coach.  One who has a track record of innovation, improving players and improving teams.  Ronny will not sell tickets on the basis of his own identity, become none of us knew him, but it was absurd to suggest Celtic would look for a short term fix with enormous Champions League qualifiers looming a few weeks away.

By any measure Ronny is a student of the game, a “Moneyball” candidate, according to the above ‘Awesomeness’ article.  We don’t need the archetypal British shouter-manager, renowned for his inspirational abilities.  You can get the guy who puts the cones out to do the shouting.  We don’t need a media darling either.  Someone already alerted me to the fact that surely ‘Ronny brings it on himself’, whatever the media decide ‘it’ is, and the manager doesn’t need an Irish granny.

I’ve not seen too much of Lennoxtown but what I have seen is a campus with talented coaches, fitness experts, nutritionists, sports scientists, scouts and analysts.  We need a manager in tune with this approach to the game.  Someone who will dovetail with this infrastructure, who intuitively recognises its value without needing to be told.

These appointments are always a risk, but if we’re looking for someone to fulfil this criteria, we’ll do very well. I’ve yet to back a managerial appointment by our board in 10 years writing this stuff. This could be about to change.

Lladro replica World Cup trophy

My thanks to Liam, from East Kilbride, who donated his prize memento, a Lladro replica World Cup trophy, commissioned by the Spanish FA in 1978, and acquired by Liam in 1982.  It will be auctioned on Saturday with proceeds going to our Mary’s Meals school kitchen appeal.  You can get involved in the auction, or keep an eye on it as it happens, here.  The auction takes place at Great Western Auctions, on Dumbarton Road.

Visit the CQN Bookstore to get Tommy Gemmell to sign your personal copy of his tome, All the Best.

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  1. TET

     

     

    When you enter your score son the sheet it automatically gives you the last 16 for your consideration. Input those scores and it’s last 8 etc. I’m sure you know that and I’ve misinterpreted your post, but just in case!

  2. Geordie Munro on

    Sftb,

     

     

    Did Big Glenn loovens not nail Broony just before we signed the defender?

     

     

    I don’t think it sidelined Broony but I remember thinking ‘ouch’

  3. NegAnon2:

     

     

    At the time there was only one team using the system because they had the geek who invented the system. With the release of the book others caught on swiftly and now every team is looking to get an edge over the other.

     

     

    There is a kid at Chelsea today, he was plucked out of Brisbane at the age of seven by Stoke, although Rangers were tracking him. His first game in the U.K. was against Man. Utd. Man City were watching the game and within one month the boy had left Stoke for Man City. The boy is now eleven/twelve and playing with Chelsea. I tried to bring the kid to the attention of Celtic via our host (with the approval of his father, a Rangers supporter) but Celtic showed no interest.

     

     

    Like I keep on saying I prefer Linsanity to Moneyball, Moneyball was good when it was exclusive but then some geezer wrote the book, Moneyball, the art of winning an unfair game, and the title entered the sporting lexicon.

  4. Looks a lot like Che Guevara on

    I for one welcome the appointment if indeed it comes to pass. I thought in recent times Dr Jo Venglos was an inspired appointment with exceptional football knowledge, years ahead of his time though MON provided a glimpse of another world and if we played in a different league I am sure the MON world would be the one we would inhabit and enjoy.

     

    I figure this new guy will do a fine job. Just worries me that the Media will have him for breakfast and how he will deal with the massive pressure that Vinniethedog mentions earlier……………………

  5. mullet and co 2 on

    I’m in agreement with Paul67 and Neganon here although part to one part to the other.

     

     

    I think it’s fair to adopt moneyball as long as there are tweaks along the way. Eg samaras! It cannot be one size fits all. The general ethos should also be to build on success. Where a players sold increases we should also up the bar for our maximum paid for replacements. As achievements create more income, spend some of the income to get better. As achievements go up so do crowds., sales of pies, jerseys etc.

     

     

    We cannot stick to one bar every transfer window for wages and salaries.

     

     

    There is no doubt that the cv of Deila means he fits the bill for our structure. However, he had/has a director of football that dealt with signings and decision making on football.

     

     

    I like MWD and others suspect there is no real football decision maker and The purchases of Balde, Boerigter and Pukki may be examples. Neil Lennon cast doubt on fees paid for two of these and also spoke of developing Balde. I don’t believe Neil Lennon saw Balde as a first team player even though we are reported to have paid £2m for him?

     

     

    Regardless of who finally signed the forms and said ok, these signings are failures in the moneyball machine. Hopefully we will improve scouting and player recruitment in line with coaching and fitness.

     

     

    Celtic need to eek out every ounce they can from the resources and investments. If that meant an acknowledgement from Neil that he could not fit with the structure, then I am glad for both parties and us that it happens with no obvious blood letting. However, if Ronny Deila sells develops his talents and they are sold without adequate replacements for him to maintain success, don’t blame Ronny. When Ronny stops his CPD we need to look to the next bright young thing which takes me to a director of football…

  6. Neganon:

     

     

    Meant to add… With the release of the book the strategy was diluted enormously by its subsequent widespread implementation. Until the book was released Oakland did rather well for themselves.

  7. ayrshirtim

     

     

     

    13:49 on 5 June, 2014

     

     

     

    rt reverend Davie hay and natknow

     

     

    From a bit earlier guys, I did wonder when I heard Ronny Deila’s name if this was our LeGuen moment. Then I remembered. He got wee Bazza and we have got Broonie, a model pro.

     

    I’d like to see JC being part of a new set up as well, always assuming it happens.

     

     

    HH

     

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    Fair point dude! I too hope our players respond in a professional manner to whoever becomes the new boss.

  8. Frank Ryan's Whiskey on

    Totally underwhelmed by the thought of the Ronny becoming Celtic manager despite all the ‘spin’ being spun around his alleged qualities. From a minnow club in the Norwegian league to one of the biggest football clubs world football, huge gamble given what will happen to the squad and all the progress made during NL’s tenure if we fail to qualify for the CL group stages. As big a risk as RK?

     

     

    Despite that he’ll get my support if he arrives at CP.

  9. My friends in Celtic,

     

     

    You have got to speculate to accumulate. In all walks of life, especially football.

     

     

    If we have no ambition then we deserve mediocrity.

     

    We are a massive institution, and to realise our ambitions and rightful status we have to think and act positive.

     

     

    I will not accept the status quo, with “old firm” normality awaiting. I hope Celtic will not either.

     

     

    Check Bosman on your I-Pads / mobies, check the history channel for the Berlin Wall and “Rangers”, check your “Green” cars, check your flat screen TV, check social media sites ( such as this )

     

     

    Think positive , embrace the future and visualise where Celtic should and will be.

     

     

    HH.

  10. antipodean red on

    Getting back to our proposed new coach and moneyball, he signed 34 year old Hungarian striker Peter Kovacs in 2012, he went on to be the top scorer in Tippeligaen that season.

     

     

    AR

  11. cavansam \o/

     

     

     

    14:01 on 5 June, 2014

     

     

     

    NatKnow

     

     

    I’m guessing that Stefan Johansen has fielded quite a few “Who is he?” calls from the other players on the team this week.

     

     

    In that regard the signing of Stefan may be seen as a long term strategic move off the park as well as a clever bit of business on it.

     

    ——————————————————————————-

     

    I’ll bet Stefan’s phone is red hot this week! I wonder what advice he’s offering the other players….”I’d just make that a half if I were you…”? :-)

  12. iPaddy McCourt on

    Traditionalist 88

     

     

    I’ve learned the hard way that it’s utterly pointless to try to argue with negaYawn. If we were 5-0 up in the Bernabau he’d find a reason to have a go at those running the club.

     

     

    A pathetic, dummy-spitting, chip-on-the-shoulder miserabilist who has managed to turn into a parody of himself despite starting out as a pathetic, dummy-spitting, chip-on-the-shoulder miserabilist.

     

     

    Quite an achievement.

  13. Was it not the girl who is now a manager in France who recommended Balde?

     

     

    Was it not the KOK’s who endorsed Bougara?

     

     

    Did Martin O’Neil really sign Juninho?

     

     

    Who signed Robbie Keane?

     

     

    Who signed Freddie Ljungberg?

     

     

    Who signed Thomas Gravesen?

     

     

    Who’s going to do our signings before the CL deadline?

  14. Nat Know

     

     

    Sorry for being late getting back to you but MWD has filled in some of my thoughts at 14.10.

     

     

    I am of the belief that all CEOs are overpaid and do not contribute as much to the health of the company as their PR men would have you believe. It all stems from the Lee Iacocca myth where it was emphasised how “single-handed” was his contribution to Chrysler’s “success”. This myth was re-inforced through many cultural messages from TV programmes like Dallas and LA Law and from our yellow press desperate to prop up the myth that Thatcher and Reagan had reversed their countries decline.

     

     

    Victorian capitalists were super rich from invention, speculation and trading in stocks but their factory managers and middle management were paid conservatively and, often, just a little above skilled worker level. The myth of success being due to single handed individuals (Abu Hamza as CEO??) belies the collegiate approach which is necessary for success with any enterprise. A good leader can co-ordinate and is worth a goodly level of pay but his team of managers need to be rewarded too and, as with a football team, there will be problems in a set up where 1 or 2 or 3 are paid exponentially higher wages than the rest.

     

     

    You attempted to justify it by comparing it with the payment to English clubs CEOs. I think that is the equivalent of suggesting “we need to be as mad as them” to compete. Most football clubs lose money. They waste the fortunes of their owner (or majority shareholders) and they raid the public purse to bail them out of their stupidities. Why should all the CEOs at football clubs , who are responsible for this industry’s failings, be paid so much?

     

     

    I disagree with MWD on one main point. I accept the need for a DoF type role, as they provide continuity of strategy, and, if PL is adopting this role at CP, he should have a salary similar to or better than the more temporary coach. However it seems to me that DoF’s are sacked just as often as coaches and managers are, and though I am sure PL has the financial side of a DoF role down by now, he still seems to need John Park to add the missing football evaluation bit, so should JP be getting half the salary assigned to PL’s DoF role? And should PL’s CEO salary be reduced to reflect that he is moonlighting as a DoF too so is not a full time CEO?

     

     

    My benchmark would be to see what salary is paid to DD’s henchmen CEO in his other industries which are more profitable for him and more expensive. Are they all earning around £1m per year for producing so little in financial dividend?

  15. mullet and co 2 on

    Antipodean red, that’s real moneyball for me. Signing a 34 year old to win the league thereby gaining access to another income stream. We stuck to signing under 23s when we could have had a striker for a combination of Pukki, Balde and Bierigters fees. 2 goals from that striker would have got us a 3rd place champions league spot and thereby access to the Europa league later stages.

  16. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    I think that the extensions to Izzi and Lustig fit the Moneyball ( whatever that is) theory.

     

     

    Perhaps this pending deal has been brewing for longer than we think.

     

     

    Ledley going, Johanssen in.

     

     

    Sammi not offered new contract. = change of style.

     

     

    The pace and movement of Griffiths added.

     

     

    Look out Kris, Charlie and Anthony.

     

     

    To paraphrase Darwin,

     

     

    It’s the survival of the adaptable, not the fittest.

     

     

    Although, a bit of fitness helps!

  17. Neganon:

     

     

    Meant to also add that Moneyball has got nothing to do with buying low and selling big; not that you said it did.

  18. Moonbeams WD. Wee Oscar’s our Bhoy and Kano’s our mhan.

     

     

     

    14:10 on 5 June, 2014

     

     

     

    Natknow

     

     

    that was my point exactly.

     

     

    We are not a massive club in financial terms. Therefor we should not be paying our CEO the kind of money he is on to do his job. Surely if CEo is acting on dictat from above which appears to be the general opinion on here and in the Celtic world on the whole then why do we need to pay a CEO to apply the dictat on the over inflated rates of PL.

     

     

    If the CEO is however running the club as per a CEO at any major business whereby he is the policy maker as well as implenter and measured against that then he then IMO is worthy of a higher salary and bonus albeit, IMO again, not to the numbers he currently is awarded.

     

     

    MWD says AYE

     

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    But you seem to be contradicting yourself. On one hand you saying he just follows instructions (makes no decisions) and is not worth his money and on the other hand you’re saying he has power over everything at the club? His wages are alearly not over-inflated if you want to compare them to a club with a similar turnover (Portsmouth).

     

     

    Forget about Peter Lawell. What do you think the CEO of Celtic should be paid? Less than all the other CEOs of football clubs with a similar turnover? Are Portsmouth a “bigger club” than Celtic?

  19. Well no Keano, I agree with Mr Auld I would have loved him to be our new Boss, I like him as a guy he is no politician for sure but I think he would have made us Tick.

     

    Having said that however this new guy sounds pretty good, Grow your own and develop the players to fit into an overall fast attacking football philosophy, I can’t stand cheque book managers they deserve no respect at all I can’t even watch most football teams now with millionaire players fannying about doing nothing special and stealing money from the supporters they make me puke. Hopefully the new guy will give us a team to be proud of, full of players who appreciate how easy their job is in comparison to the drudgery most of the supporters have to put up with every week in order to see them kick a bag of wind around.

     

     

    Hail Hail.

  20. Celtic cannot compete with the elite clubs on transfer fees or wages. Therefore we must either rear our own players or buy cheaply and sell on or a blend of the two.

     

    Over the past 4 years we have done this up to a point. RD’s appointment takes the strategy a step further.

     

    It’s our only hope of achieving some measure of success in Europe. I’ll be really pleased if RD is confirmed as manager.

     

    Director of Football? This can only work if the responsibilities of both the coach and DoF are clearly understood from the outset. Paul le Guen could have improved the deid club had he been supported properly by the top brass but they bottled it in favour of wee bazza and co who didn’t fancy the discipline he wished to impose.

     

    I think our current players are far more professional and will readily accept change if they think it’s going to improve their individual and collective performances.

  21. Nat Know

     

     

    BTW

     

     

    I am not proposing that Celtic should pay out more in financial dividend. I am comfortable with pay your own way and even with putting a wee bit aside for a rainy day.

     

     

    I am not comfortable with us spending the weans’ money (going into debt) in order that we have a slightly better team to watch, nor with rewarding shareholders excessively.

  22. LiviBhoy - God bless wee Oscar on

    Mullet

     

     

    Moneyball is based on statistics. The 3 players you mentioned do not fit that model. If they had been free transfers or very low transfer fees then they may fit the theory of taking a punt on a player who is not either playing or is young with potential.

     

    Moneyball would be more linked to a player like Griffith’s. Look at his goals to game ratio and the number of times he hits the target from shooting at goal, etc.

     

    This is what is detailed in the film of the baseball team following this model. A guy may not be viewed as a great player but always gets to first base. Now I don’t know a lot about Baseball but the theory of Moneyball was fascinating. You can’t build a whole team on it but blended with a couple of star players it may work in that particular sport.

     

    In football version of moneyball I would suggest the following theory.

     

     

    Defence: Defender who wins 70% of balls in the air. A Bobo type. The perfect Moneyball analogy for a defender. Free transfer, strong, powerful, wins everything in the air.

     

     

    Midfield: A midfielder that has a 60% pass completion rate and hits the target with 50% of his shots. A player who would probably fit this mould for Celtic would be John Collins. Bought fairly cheaply even at the time and fitted that mould.

     

     

    Striker: A striker who hits the target with 70% of his shots at goal. A striker who scores at least a goal every 2 games. Griffiths!

     

     

    There are obviously more positions in the team but they are general examples. You can’t fill a team of Moneyball players. You need players with craft and style but it is certainly a more successful system than punting cash at 3 guys like Balde, Boerritger and Pukki who appear to not have the attributes and were not bought cheaply or paid cheaply in wages.

     

     

    Celtic could probably look at Scottish players with a Moneyball mentality. We can pick them up fairly cheaply compared with other markets. Forget what they may look like and how they have played against Celtic. Once we sign them they won’t play against us again. Look at their stats.

     

     

    How many passes do they complete? Every player must be able to pass the ball.

     

    How many goals do they score from attempts? Even a defender fits this bracket.

     

    How much ground do they cover? Can he run for 90 mins or does he just stay in his own wee area of the pitch. (Not always a bad thing)

     

     

    Those are the key components and although I don;t have access to these stats and don;t have time to look at them in depth it changes your perception from seeing a player live 2 or 3 times and viewing them on Sportscene for 3 mins most of the season or watching a match on TV in it’s entirety.

     

     

    There are gems to be picked up and stats can play a part of that. Look at Paul Lambert. Maybe the coach of Dortmund saw something or maybe he looked at his stats and thought this guy doesn;t give the ball away. He makes 70% of his tackles. He is free. He is a perfect player to take on and give a chance in a league where he can shine. This is an example of football Moneyball. It will not always work but neither does signing the most in form player in the league for big money. Look at how Torres has struggled to score at Chelski. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.

     

    Moneyball may play a part but it is around statistics and not taking a punt at a guy because he is young. That is a completely different policy and probably far riskier.

     

     

    LB

  23. antipodean red on

    mullet and co 2,

     

     

    You are correct, seriously, some of the dross we have bought, particularly in attacking areas has cost the club a lot of money and I believe does not help our reputation in Europe when we go looking for these type of players, those you mention in addition to Rasmussen, Bangura, Lassad, Murphy and Miku being brought in and out when proper analysis and spend May have given us three players, two of which would almost certainly have gone on to score many more goals than that hapless eight. Maybe sydney tim was right all along.

     

     

    AR

  24. Garngad to Croy on

    Alex O’Henley tweeting that all outstanding issues have been resolved and that Ronnie will be confirmed as the new Celtic Manager soon.

     

     

    Why…Why…Why Deila ? (In the style of Tom Jones)

  25. Nice to be back among genuine Celtic supporters and looking forward to the new manager arriving very soon. I was up at Lennoxtown and it was deserted – only Luggy!

     

     

    I’m done at Greenock tomorrow night with the CQN Bhoys and Bertie, Tam and Yogi – hope to see you there!

  26. LiviBhoy - God bless wee Oscar on

    Good Afternoon Mr Wallace.

     

     

    Ronny? Aye or Naw?

     

     

    LB

  27. !!Bada Bing!! on

    Alex O’Henley

     

    Looks like all outstanding issues have been resolved and that Ronnie Deila will be confirmed soon as @celticfc manager.

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