Moneyball student of the game

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The extent of Celtic’s pursuit of Ronny Deila can be seen from the fact that Peter Lawwell established a false identity before setting up a Norwegian football blog in early 2012 to allow him to pen this article titled, The Awesomeness of Ronny Deila.  There is a chance the blog wasn’t written by our CEO, but the appreciation of Ronny’s talent is clear.

No deal has been concluded, so it would be a mistake to get too worked up yet, but the fact that we have got to this stage clarifies where we are, and are not, looking.

Neil Lennon resigned two weeks ago and a whole series of names, most of whom are freely available and would be delighted to accept the Celtic job, have been hotly tipped by media and bookies alike.  Celtic will not be appointing the likes of Owen Coyle.  Suggestions, by many who like to knock the club, that they will make a dash for season ticket cash by big name are also wrong.

Roy Keane was a serious contender, wanted by some within the club.  He was in pole position a week ago, forcing those who only days earlier had proclaimed with great triumph that Neil resigned due to budget constraints (he didn’t) to re-write their script, but Roy had other plans.  As did some at Celtic.

The club have been busy looking for an intelligent, technically gifted, coach.  One who has a track record of innovation, improving players and improving teams.  Ronny will not sell tickets on the basis of his own identity, become none of us knew him, but it was absurd to suggest Celtic would look for a short term fix with enormous Champions League qualifiers looming a few weeks away.

By any measure Ronny is a student of the game, a “Moneyball” candidate, according to the above ‘Awesomeness’ article.  We don’t need the archetypal British shouter-manager, renowned for his inspirational abilities.  You can get the guy who puts the cones out to do the shouting.  We don’t need a media darling either.  Someone already alerted me to the fact that surely ‘Ronny brings it on himself’, whatever the media decide ‘it’ is, and the manager doesn’t need an Irish granny.

I’ve not seen too much of Lennoxtown but what I have seen is a campus with talented coaches, fitness experts, nutritionists, sports scientists, scouts and analysts.  We need a manager in tune with this approach to the game.  Someone who will dovetail with this infrastructure, who intuitively recognises its value without needing to be told.

These appointments are always a risk, but if we’re looking for someone to fulfil this criteria, we’ll do very well. I’ve yet to back a managerial appointment by our board in 10 years writing this stuff. This could be about to change.

Lladro replica World Cup trophy

My thanks to Liam, from East Kilbride, who donated his prize memento, a Lladro replica World Cup trophy, commissioned by the Spanish FA in 1978, and acquired by Liam in 1982.  It will be auctioned on Saturday with proceeds going to our Mary’s Meals school kitchen appeal.  You can get involved in the auction, or keep an eye on it as it happens, here.  The auction takes place at Great Western Auctions, on Dumbarton Road.

Visit the CQN Bookstore to get Tommy Gemmell to sign your personal copy of his tome, All the Best.

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  1. mullet and co 2 on

    Celtics version of moneyball should be about finding the best way to deploy to win the Champions League.

     

     

    I believe we can do it and not spend £200 million in the process. The margins between Virgil Van Dyke catching or not catching Ronaldo can be narrowed. The talent base has got to be reasonably high in the first place to eek that extra 10% more out but it doesn’t need a £20m player in every position.

  2. A “Moneyballs” approach, in any sport, is a blueprint not a formula.

     

     

    It can be applied well, badly or in an average manner.

     

     

    The stats and number crunching developed were exclusive to baseball and their draft/trading system. The principles can be applied to football but the metrics involved in the calculations are less well known by most of us.

     

     

    The report that kitalba linked yesterday suggested that Wigan’s squad was worth more than Celtic’s (as we did not make the top 100 European squads in terms of transfer value). I find that hard to believe- what do you think?

     

     

    Here is Wigan’s squad:-

     

     

    1 England GK Scott Carson

     

    3 Scotland DF Stephen Crainey

     

    5 Scotland DF Gary Caldwell (captain)

     

    6 Norway DF Thomas Rogne

     

    7 Republic of Ireland MF Chris McCann

     

    8 England MF Ben Watson (3rd captain)

     

    9 England FW Grant Holt

     

    10 Scotland MF Shaun Maloney

     

    11 Republic of Ireland MF James McClean

     

    12 England GK Mike Pollitt

     

    13 England GK Lee Nicholls

     

    15 England FW Callum McManaman

     

    16 Scotland MF James McArthur

     

    17 Barbados DF Emmerson Boyce (vice-captain)

     

     

    No. Position Player

     

    18 Honduras MF Roger Espinoza

     

    20 Scotland MF Fraser Fyvie

     

    21 Spain DF Iván Ramis

     

    22 Chile MF Jean Beausejour

     

    23 Honduras DF Juan Carlos García

     

    24 England DF James Perch

     

    25 England DF Leon Barnett

     

    26 Oman GK Ali Al-Habsi

     

    27 England DF Jordan Mustoe

     

    28 England MF Daniel Redmond

     

    30 Republic of Ireland DF Rob Kiernan

     

    32 France FW Marc-Antoine Fortuné

     

    33 England FW Martyn Waghorn

     

    43 England DF Adam Buxton

     

    — England MF Andrew Taylor

     

    — Scotland DF Aaron Taylor-Sinclair

  3. LiviBhoy - God bless wee Oscar on

    Willie Wallace

     

     

    Thanks for answering my question Mr Wallace. Good to have some positivity around!

     

     

    HH

     

     

    LB

  4. Bada bing – fantastic – very well organised and really enjoyable. Teresa Cassidy from Celtic organised it all and did a great job. The old pre Fergus board weren’t good for the Lions but we are much better treated and respected these days.

  5. Geordie Munro on

    Kitalba

     

     

    “Both players were at Celtic before the book recording the ‘true’ events was even written. So too were both players at the club before the events… if I’m not mistaken.”

     

     

     

    I agree both players were there before the book was written but Sandy Alderson was working with the principles behind moneyball in 91/92ish.

  6. antipodean red on

    Willie,

     

     

    I was at the Southern Hemisphere Convention in Perth, WA in 1999, a year after I arrived in Oz, the Friday night Q&A session with yourself, Big Billy, Jim Craig and Frank Haffey was one of the best Celtic nights of my life, outside of actual games, especially when one of the Bhoys asked Big Billy about lamping Gerry McNee (Sorry Kev Jungle).

     

     

    Magic Night, Hail Hail

     

     

    AR

  7. Hail hail, Wispy. Great to have a lion on the blog.

     

    Most of us seem to be keen on RD as new head coach. Are you as excited?

  8. WW

     

     

    Hope you and the other Lions enjoyed Lisbon.

     

     

    I don’t suppose you got time to go to the restaurant I recommended to TG when he was on doing his q&a? The ‘Trindade’ ?

  9. Antipodean Red – I remember a bit about that night. There was a Dr over from South Africa representing their CSC – Billy was right to clock him and quite a few of us cheered him on.

  10. Lisbon Lion on, so I wish I could stick around. I’m looking forward to reading back later, Willie.

     

     

    Hail, Hail!

  11. Geordie:

     

     

    When did ‘Moneyball’ enter the sporting lexicon?

     

     

    I don’t know who the Sandy you refer to is. Are you saying Celtic was employing ‘moneyball’ strategies since the early nineties?

  12. Geordie Munro on

    Antip red,

     

     

    The only thing I’d say about your list of dross (your words not mine;)) is that all those players were brought in (some loans) as a back up/ foil for Hooper.

     

     

    GH was our number 1 pick striker and imo it’s easier to buy a guy to be a number one pick than someone who will be 2nd choice or possibly even third behind stokes.

  13. setting free the bears – it snowed there before I left believe it or not. Greenock was great last year and Jim Brogan fella will have his snow boots on again – he’s got no style!

  14. SFTB… Only the 5 ex-Celtic players at Wigan?!

     

    Wonder what their scouting strategy is?

  15. WW

     

     

    I think there may be some guid wumminfolk in Greenock who’ll be pretty vexed that the bingo in “The Celtic” has been cancelled tomorrow night.

     

     

    Being a Lion is no protection against the wrath of these heavy duty,heavybreestit Game of Thrones extras when they’ve denied their pursuit of a single line and full house ….you might want to bring a minder or blame the bingo cancellation on Winning Captains.

  16. glendalystonsils on

    Willie,

     

     

    just to let you know how much I enjoyed reading your book. Thanks for that.

     

    Enjoyed watching you play ,too. (I’m one of these old bu##ers>)

  17. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Hi Willie,

     

     

    After watching the Champions League final at first hand, can we ever get back to that level again?

  18. setting free the bears supports Res. 12 & Oscar Knox

     

     

     

    14:34 on 5 June, 2014

     

     

     

    Nat Know

     

     

    Sorry for being late getting back to you but MWD has filled in some of my thoughts at 14.10.

     

     

    I am of the belief that all CEOs are overpaid and do not contribute as much to the health of the company as their PR men would have you believe. It all stems from the Lee Iacocca myth where it was emphasised how “single-handed” was his contribution to Chrysler’s “success”. This myth was re-inforced through many cultural messages from TV programmes like Dallas and LA Law and from our yellow press desperate to prop up the myth that Thatcher and Reagan had reversed their countries decline.

     

     

    Victorian capitalists were super rich from invention, speculation and trading in stocks but their factory managers and middle management were paid conservatively and, often, just a little above skilled worker level. The myth of success being due to single handed individuals (Abu Hamza as CEO??) belies the collegiate approach which is necessary for success with any enterprise. A good leader can co-ordinate and is worth a goodly level of pay but his team of managers need to be rewarded too and, as with a football team, there will be problems in a set up where 1 or 2 or 3 are paid exponentially higher wages than the rest.

     

     

    You attempted to justify it by comparing it with the payment to English clubs CEOs. I think that is the equivalent of suggesting “we need to be as mad as them” to compete. Most football clubs lose money. They waste the fortunes of their owner (or majority shareholders) and they raid the public purse to bail them out of their stupidities. Why should all the CEOs at football clubs , who are responsible for this industry’s failings, be paid so much?

     

     

    I disagree with MWD on one main point. I accept the need for a DoF type role, as they provide continuity of strategy, and, if PL is adopting this role at CP, he should have a salary similar to or better than the more temporary coach. However it seems to me that DoF’s are sacked just as often as coaches and managers are, and though I am sure PL has the financial side of a DoF role down by now, he still seems to need John Park to add the missing football evaluation bit, so should JP be getting half the salary assigned to PL’s DoF role? And should PL’s CEO salary be reduced to reflect that he is moonlighting as a DoF too so is not a full time CEO?

     

     

    My benchmark would be to see what salary is paid to DD’s henchmen CEO in his other industries which are more profitable for him and more expensive. Are they all earning around £1m per year for producing so little in financial dividend?

     

    ————————————————————————————————–

     

     

    Interesting theories about CEOs. I’m not sure PLCs function well when run by committee. If that were the case the shareholders would simply ditch their CEO and save a fortune. Gavin Patterson, who took over from Ian Livingston at BT, earned £4.25m last year. Why do they pay him I wonder when they could dispense with him and save that money? The asnwer is that someone has to be in charge. That doesn’t mean there is no delegation or collegiate approach to management, but someone has to lead the enterprise.

     

     

    I picked Portsmouth because it happened to feature in a article about football CEO remuneration I had previously posted and they have a similar turnover – so in the same business, and (on one measure) the same size. I’m sure there are other examples out there of clubs with similar turnover that could be used.

     

     

    What I think it reflects is not the effectiveness of the individual but rather the market – like many other jobs. Otherwise we would be paying nurses a hellova lot more than we do.

     

     

    Your benchmark for the Celtic CEO would be what Dermit Desmond pays CEOs in his other businesses? Why? That’s a spurious and unrelated comparison. Why wouldn’t you pcik other football clubs (in any league) with comparable turnover or market cap?

     

     

    You think the CEO of Celtic should all be remunerated on the basis of producing a financial dividend for shareholders? Not football results then? Sorry – you’ve got me beat with that logic.

  19. Geordie Munro on

    Kit,

     

     

    I agree about the word and when it arrived in the language.

     

     

    It’s the theory and principles behind it I’m mentioning.

     

     

    It’s a bit like saying pele wasn’t a brammer of a player as the word wasn’t around in the 60’s &70 ;)

  20. antipodean red on

    geordie munro,

     

     

    That may be the case but you have to agree that we squandered an inordinate amount of precious money in both transfer fees and wages on that particular group?

     

     

    AR

  21. oneneillennon on

    This posting and the last are at best patronising, at worst deluded. Suggestions that decision makers at club leak stories to internet blogs to gauge fan reaction is ludicrous. If anyone at club bases decisions on what they read here then I despair. Also have I missed a turnaround in personnel who deal with recruitment that we have a strategy? WGS got the job after a day at the horse racing with Desmond. Mowbray apparently on John Park’s sayso. So where has the strategy come from that the one guy we know we have spoken to doesn’t fit. Time for many on here to think on.

  22. Geordie Munro on

    Kitalba.

     

     

    Sandy was the general manager of that Oakland mob you are going on about.

  23. Glasstwothirdsfull

     

     

    I don’t see why not – we just need a couple of decent players and the right guidance to get to the next level again and that is hopefully the plan. Two years before Lisbon we finished eighth in the league so we are better placed now.

  24. traditionalist88 on

    mullet and co 2

     

    14:52 on

     

    5 June, 2014

     

    Celtics version of moneyball should be about finding the best way to deploy to win the Champions League.

     

     

    I believe we can do it and not spend £200 million in the process. The margins between Virgil Van Dyke catching or not catching Ronaldo can be narrowed. The talent base has got to be reasonably high in the first place to eek that extra 10% more out but it doesn’t need a £20m player in every position.

     

    ================================

     

     

    Absolutely, we’ve shown we’re able to reach the last 16, from theres its knockout and stranger things have happened.

     

     

    Our problem lies in the turnover of players – can you imagine a side patrolled in defence by Van Dijk, in midfield by Wanyama, with a proper poacher in Hooper and Griffiths running around all over the place, all in front of Englands no.1 goalkeeper?!

     

     

    Its not inconceivable that we could possess players going on a run to the late stages of the CL, its keeping them together long enough and at the same time that is our biggest problem.

     

     

    That and the fact we face 3 qualifiers to get there.

     

     

    HH

  25. I Cant understand celtic supporters giving it tight to some of the players that played for the hoops, The way Owen Coyle gets treated by some on here is an absaloute disgrace, the guy is a celtic fan,first and foremost, he turned the celtic job down ,so what he is entitled to do what he thinks is best for him, and most importantly his family.so leave the guy alone. as for John Collins what has he done to upset a few people on here.he again done what was right for him ,left on a bosman to earn more money, and I think the reason he left was that Fergus McCann wasn’t prepared to give him more money.well Fergus put in 9 million and went away with 45 million,and he chased Tommy Burns out the door as well. the point im making is there has been worse people in control than John Collins or Owen Coyle.and if any the 2 get the managers job or any other position at Celtic Football Club ,they will certainly get my backing.

  26. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    Willie,

     

    I was down on my knees, fitting skirting boards in a school in Bearsden when the news came on the tranny that you had signed.

     

     

    It must have been because I was on my knees.

     

     

    I had heard stories all summer that you were coming, so it was a great relief that it was confirmed.

     

     

    Not only did we get a great player, but removed a clear and present danger from Hearts.

     

     

    Thanks for the memories.

  27. All wage structures are governed by competition.

     

     

    Who said that?

     

     

    Dunno.. but, He/she wiz a Smart Cookie!

     

     

    Peter,gets whit he gets, because that is the Going Rate fur a C.E.O.

     

     

    Who is RUNNING A FINANCIALLY STRONG FITBA ENTERPRISE….2014 A.D.

     

     

    If ye wanta Pay yer C.E.O. Less..

     

     

    Well.. You Kin.

     

     

    Simply, Fire Peter!

     

     

    But..

     

     

    You won’t be able tae HIRE a new C.E.O…

     

     

    One Who Has a Background.. a ..Resum-ay.. Such as Mr. Peter Has ..in his Brief-Case… At a Lesser Wage than He.

     

     

    Like Ah alwiz Say…

     

     

    “Ye get whit ye Pay Fur”( Hey.. wait a Minute.. Ah LIKE THAT.. Kin Ah hiv it.. Laminated fur Ma Wallet?…ed)( Sure, Go Aheid.. Ah hiv it Already Laminated in Ma Ain.. A take it oot n Show it tae Prospective Hires.. awe the Time~)

     

     

    It is Alwiz.. Alwiz.. Alwiz..

     

     

    “All Aboot the Money.. Honey!”

     

     

    Mr.Peter, is Worth wit he gets..because of the fine Joab that he is daeing, the Noo.

     

     

    n..

     

     

    If He gets Any Bettah at whit he Diz..

     

     

    His Wage wull Move up the Bed a Bit Mair… n ..He wull Make Mair Money.

     

     

    That is How it works,Guys..

     

     

    Kojo

     

    Stlll,Laughin’

     

     

    Na…

  28. Geordie Munro on

    AR,

     

     

    Oh God aye. But I don’t think we are any better or worse than most clubs in that regard.

     

     

    Anyways, gotta head. Battery is dying a death and some guy called ‘ma boss’ is wanting a shift out of me;) Probably best seeing we are in the company of a legend.

     

     

    HH.

  29. Nat Know

     

     

    “Why wouldn’t you pcik other football clubs (in any league) with comparable turnover or market cap?”

     

     

    For the reasons outlined in my post that you have not addressed. Football clubs do not make money. They do not need a smart money man to make them money when that is not their intention

     

     

     

     

     

    “You think the CEO of Celtic should all be remunerated on the basis of producing a financial dividend for shareholders? Not football results then? Sorry – you’ve got me beat with that logic.”

     

     

    I am guessing that you did not read on a few posts where I corrected that ambiguity.

  30. Willie Wallace

     

     

    Welcome back sir.

     

     

    Enjoy Greenock, it’s a lovely town!

     

     

    I was born there but left 52 years ago.

     

     

    Your book is a great read – when does volume 2 come out?!

     

     

    HH!!

  31. Geordie Munro:

     

     

    I’m said that Lubo and the KOK were not ‘moneyball’ signings of any moneyball strategy of Celtic because the concept/science had not been incorporated into the club back in the late 90’s early 00’s. You asked if I actually wrote that and I replied in the affirmative. Sandy Alderson was preceded by Earnshaw Cook but that is just digressing from what I stated. To what point I have no clue.

     

     

    The release of the movie in 2011 popularised the theory, but by then everybody who was into sports science had already read the book or maybe should have.

  32. I agree Mr Wallace a couple of really good Pros and with the right motivation and instruction Celtic would be in with a shout for the Big Cup.

     

     

    Hail Hail.

  33. leftclicktic We are all Neil Lennon on

    Willie Wallace

     

     

    When you played with the Lions was there any of them whom you thought would have made a great manager that never went on and tried?

     

     

    Enjoy your visit and thank you for all the memories.

     

     

    thats allcsc

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