Newco FFP, it’s about “fair play” Uefa

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A quick summary of Uefa’s Financial Fair Play regulations:

Under normal circumstances, Financial Fair Play (FFP) requires clubs to run at a financial break-even, with certain allowances and an acceptable deviation, over a three year period.  Money spent on youth or women’s’ football, as well as depreciation (which includes money spent on stadiums), are excluded from this responsibility.  A club, therefore, that makes a €10m annual loss while spending €11m on youth football, women’s football and depreciation, will have an FFP surplus of €1m.

The acceptable deviation is a €5m cumulative loss over three years.  However, if a club supplements its loss by “contributions from equity participants”, they are permitted to run an aggregate loss over the three years of €30m.

Due to the extraordinary nature of last years’ finances across football, the current monitoring period covers the last four years.  Clubs are also allowed to add back any lost revenue due to shutdown, playing behind closed doors, not playing at all, or for closed retail facilities.

See the graph below detailing a summary of Newco’s finances for the last four published accounts (year ending 30 June 2018 – year ending 30 June 2021).  Items on yellow are my estimates.  The Youth/Women add back figure is based on peer data from elsewhere and is generous to Newco.  The Shutdown add back is also based on peer data, adjusted for the number of cup games, absence of a refund programme and is also generous to Newco.

I estimate the Newco FFP loss at £40.235m.  At a (generous) £/€ conversion rate of €1.14/£ this gives an FFP loss of €45.868m, €15.858m over Uefa’s acceptable deviation.

So where is all this right now?  Clubs submit accounts to Uefa along with their claims for spend on depreciation, youth and women’s football, and for this year, a Shutdown add back.  Newco do not specify these add backs in their accounts, but page 11 of their Annual Report states, “Initial estimates are that the adverse effect on revenues was over £20m”.

“Initial estimates” are doing a lot of heavy lifting here.  You can be sure that where I estimates last year’s hit at £10m, Newco’s signal of “over £20m” was consistent the figure they submitted to Uefa.  My expectation is that whatever they have claimed, it will be high enough to get them through the first pass.

Newco have run an operating loss every year they have been in business.  Persistent loss makers who compete in European football have more onerous FFP reporting responsibilities, I expect Newco to be under this scrutiny.  Claims made for add backs can and should be scrutinised by Uefa, who are well versed on how clubs that work at the margins operate.

What is going to happen?  Under normal circumstances, Uefa would act with instructions to reduce spending, or face severe action.  These are not normal times, though.  There is red ink all over European club accounts, many are unable to raise equity capital, even where permitted under FFP.

Uefa’s special provisions for this year are published and make no indication that we are in a free for all.  Clubs have experienced an income shock, some are unable to raise finance as a consequence, but there is no cover for persistent FFP deviants.  For the sake of “fair play”, we have to hope they apply the rules.  Your guess is as good as mine on what will happen, though.

What does all this mean long-term?  Newco cannot run at a loss of the scale they do under normal circumstances.  They either have to sell for the kind of money Celtic did this year and do so regularly, or reduce spending on wages (their only significant expenditure, as transfer spend is always low).  The £4.5m for Gerrard & Co. will only scratch the surface, they could do with selling another three management teams before June next year.

Champions League football next season is all.  It is literally everything, and you thought last season’s title was important.  The additional income would not resolve Newco’s structural problems, but it would give them a short-term stay of execution while they try to transition to a sustainable model.  Without it, the prognosis is dire, whether this season is a Uefa free for all or not.

………and remember, irrespective of FFP, they still need to fund those losses.  None of this is about defending corner kicks or putting the ball in the net, but appropriate financial governance wins more trophies than any tactical formation.

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  1. What happened with Hibs tonight? Beaten 1-0. Doige sent off after 84 minutes. Boyle sent off after the whistle. Both straight reds.

     

     

    Haven’t read any reports yet, but must have been a controversial sending off that Mr Boyle took offence to and told the ref what he was thinking.

     

     

    Will boss Ross whinge about the ref or keep wittering about ticket allocations.

  2. Supersutton

     

    Both straight red cards, 2 match bans

     

    Who do they play in that 2nd game 🤔 Due At Easter Road 🤔🤔

  3. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Busy day. Free at last to watch some Champions League highlights.

     

     

    Have deliberately avoided goals and alerts.

     

     

    Hope the matches live up to the hype.

     

     

    I expect a classic between Man City and PSG.

     

     

    Could go either way.

     

     

    Bruges vs Leipzig much easier to call I think.

     

     

    Bruges, expertly marshalled at the back by Jack Hendry, will be too strong at home.

     

     

    I’ll say 3-0 Bruges with Jack rising majestically to bullet home the first goal.

     

     

    What a talent.

     

     

    Criminal such an assured world class defender was allowed leave us.

  4. So Ross County beat Hibs. Can’t say I’m totally surprised.

     

    Realistically ,Hibs ambition is to win cups.

     

     

    They will be very, very dangerous opponents on Dec 19th.

  5. The Hibs red cards tonight, let us all know what we have to do, and what is the Establishment end game.

  6. Will say a prayer tonight for those lost souls in the English channel.Much missed poster South of Tunis used to report in the numbers at lampedusa daily in a simple show of humanity,31 humans died in English channel today.

     

     

    Refugees are welcome

     

     

    HH

  7. Refugees.

     

     

    All of them from wherever.

     

     

    Always welcome.

     

     

    Takes a rotten soul not to help them

  8. danny o'velinski on

    Replacement migration is a coup via the back door.

     

    France is not a war torn country.

     

    So what is really going on?

     

    Why did the corporate-media try to suppress the news of the attempted bombing of a maternity hospital in Liverpool at the 11, 11, 11, Poppy minute silence until they realised that George Galloway’s Twitter timeline was ablaze with, posts, videos, and silent complicit journalists being handed their ars*es for not reporting the news?

     

    Why the cover up?

     

    George Galloway asked the silent complicit journalists if they’d like some “scoops” from Liverpool, as he has more sources in working class Liverpool, than all of the silent complicit journalists put together!

     

    BBC news channel couldn’t be ar*ed reporting this, attempted massacre, at a women & baby, maternity hospital, until 8 hrs later, 7:00pm news!

     

    And the story was buried several hours later!

     

    Why the corporate-media burial of an attempted massacre?

     

    How many more of these, refugees, most of whom are young men of fighting age, from NOT war torn France, are waiting to pounce?

     

    ScotsGov has previously said that, ScotsGov ministers would “personally” house the refugees if necessary, then ordered their cowed-local-media to drop any questions about refugees the next day, and some Celtic supporters fall for their guff and deflections, no matter what!

     

    Rebels my erchie!

  9. Big Georges Fan Club - Hail, Hail, Wee Oscar on

    BIGRAILROADBLUES on 25TH NOVEMBER 2021 6:36 AM

     

    Good morning all from Govanhill.

     

    ====================

     

     

    Morning young man :-))

  10. Soon as I seen two straight reds for hibs I suspected they were due to play sevco.

     

    MIBs sleekitness of the highest order.

     

    Good morning all.

  11. Who was Ref at the Hibs game.Was it an elbow offence.Any coverage anywhere?.

     

    Lot of questions there.Sorry.

  12. DANNY O’VELINSKI on 25TH NOVEMBER 2021 2:16 AM

     

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    O agree!

     

     

    Let these SNPcult virtue-signalers press the the Nationalists to make a policy that all migrants are welcome in unrestricted numbers in Scotland, and watch their vote drop like ‘snow off a dyke’.

     

     

    The UK has always done its bit on refugees – Scotland gets off ‘scot-free’ in comparison.

  13. BELMONT BRIAN from last night.

     

     

    Wonderful watch!

     

     

    Don’t mind admitting I shed a few tears.

     

     

    Thanks for posting.

     

     

    Hope you are good mate!

  14. prestonpans bhoys on

    CORKCELT on 25TH NOVEMBER 2021 10:05 AM

     

    One strange man totally destroying the Blog,

     

     

    Don’t know why they don’t get his devices IP addresses and block it. I know there are ways to mask it, if he had the intellect😕

  15. PRETONPANS, exactly what I was thinking last night as new monikers appeared within minutes of each other. At least his/her ‘style’ is recognisable so scrolling by is fairly easy, if a bit annoying having to do it in the first place.

     

     

    Ave Ave

  16. Big Georges Fan Club - Hail, Hail, Wee Oscar on

    CORKCELT/SAINT STIVS/PRESTONPANS BHOYS

     

     

    I just ignore him / them – quick scroll past. Just let them waste their breath and their own – don’t engage at all / never answer them, never read what they say, never reply to anything, never comment on anything.

     

     

    Takes a bit of discipline initially, but you get into it after a wee while. Each wee ‘scroll-by’ is a small boost for your own sanity and inner calm.

     

     

    It’s a bit like how your brain is able to block out the fact that your eyes can actually see your nose ALL the time :-))

     

     

    HH

     

    BGFC

  17. A question regarding the red card for Conor Hazard against Clyde. I thought there was a new rule that there wasn’t a red card if a penalty was given unless it was dangerous play… or have I picked that up incorrectly ?

  18. Yorkbhoy

     

    I would be quite happy if they could properly apply the old rules like you can only give a penalty when an offence happens INSIDE the box

  19. CLINKO on 25TH NOVEMBER 2021 10:49 AM

     

    Yorkbhoy

     

     

     

     

    I would be quite happy if they could properly apply the old rules like you can only give a penalty when an offence happens INSIDE the box

     

     

    —-

     

    Scottish rules…

  20. prestonpans bhoys on

    BGFC

     

     

    Oh I’m a scroll by specialist😂, he/she is not the only clown on here. Some pages you would be lucky if I’ve read half a dozen comments😱😵

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