Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.
My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.
An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:
“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”
So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.
The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.
Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.
Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity. Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.
My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.
Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.
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It’s the coverage the SMSM gives it, IE none, I mean this is very big stuff any other country would be all over it gag order or not.
I know you get a lot on all the Celtic blogs saying, Ach a don’t care about them or what happens to them, which is far enough, but it’s the biggest story ever to hit uk sports, and it gets no coverage, and that kinda let’s you know why res 12 gets none either, North Korean propaganda press do better overage.
Says at the bottom of this article thems where demoted, oh well!
image: http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/1a24912ec94d0dc7323efb1e04d019bd?s=30&d=mm&r=g
Date: 9th December 2015 at 8:01 am
Written by: Joe McHugh | Comments (5)
image: http://cdn.videocelts.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Neil-Doncaster.jpg
Neil-DoncasterAfter questioning the decision making and communication process relating to the new look League Cup Ann Budge found herself on the receiving end of a detailed attack from the SPFL.
Perhaps the Hearts chief should have refused to pay an SPFL fine, announced a £2.5m going concern issue in the club accounts or issued a threat to their fellow members?
Budge’s questioning was met with an incredibly detailed statement to STV, a more detailed statement than the SPFL issued for the launch of the League Cup with no indication of when the final will be played.
Amid the statement the un-named SPFL person claimed: “Specifically, three officials at Heart of Midlothian FC as well as two from Motherwell FC received emails at 2pm, and again at 4pm, on Monday 7 December 2015, seven and a half hours ahead of the announcement being made public.
“Furthermore it’s worth noting that both Heart of Midlothian and Motherwell approved the BT broadcasting deal by written resolution at a meeting of the Premiership clubs on 10 September 2015, which made specific reference to the Group Stage for the League Cup (with the exception of the bonus point, which was debated and approved by the Competitions Working Group and the SPFL Board).
“This subject was widely trailed at general meetings where both Heart of Midlothian and Motherwell were present, over the past year.
“Consultation with member clubs on a possible new format for the Scottish League Cup began as early as 21 October 2014 when, during a general meeting of all 42 clubs at Hampden, we announced that this topic would be explored by a competitions working group made up from representatives of member clubs, including Motherwell. Heart of Midlothian and Motherwell were both represented at this meeting.
“At subsequent general meetings held on both 19 January 2015 and 23 April 2015, each attended by Heart of Midlothian and Motherwell, all 42 clubs were again fully consulted on the considerations and recommendations of the working group, including a possible new July group stage format and potential broadcaster interest in this.”
Displaying a new level of accountability and transparency the SPFL may wish to publish the Five Way Agreement of 2012 which Neil Doncaster signed upto.
While they are there they can also explain to 11 Championship clubs the licensing criteria that allows one club to continue to take part in the competition after having a £2.5m going concern warning published in their accounts four months into the season.
As a final act of transparency they could also call in South African based criminal to explain his comments on November 12 of: “It is extraordinary that representatives of other Scottish clubs – who admit the damage done to Scottish football by Rangers’ removal from the Premier League – should even wish to re-engage with this issue. It is time those individuals, who represent other clubs, recognise their legal and fiduciary responsibilities to their own clubs and shareholders rather than submit to the uninformed ramblings of a few outspoken fans to whom attacking Rangers is more important than the well being of their own clubs.”
“This is a misguided attempt (that will ultimately fail) to rewrite history and defeat Rangers off the park when their teams could not do so on the park at the time. The history of many other clubs would have to be rewritten if this illogical argument was to be consistently applied.
“Having reviewed documentation that has become available to me I believe that Rangers was harshly and, in some instances, unfairly treated in the period leading up to demotion from the Premier League. However, that is now history and I have publicly stated, with the full support of the recently installed board, that we wish to put the past behind us and move on in partnership with all clubs throughout Scotland to improve and restore the image and quality of Scottish football as a whole. This will be to the benefit of all clubs.”
Having body-swered Mr King I suspect that the SPFL may have backed the wrong horse attacking Budge, if it came to a popularity contest among football fans between the Hearts chief and Doncaster the outcome would be overwhelming
Read more at http://videocelts.com/2015/12/blogs/latest-news/spfl-double-standards-hearts-attack-and-silence-over-sevco#YwEhhGaslAI1jtKc.99
Turkey for Christmas (Almost)
Posted On 9 Dec, 2015 – By Krys – With 0 Comments
Griffiths scores against FenerbahçeOur final Europa League group match takes place tomorrow, and sees Celtic travel to Turkey for the first time on competitive duty.
Well, I say competitive duty… we’re out, we can only finish bottom of the group, so it’s not really all that competitive from our perspective. However, this match still matters because Ajax can still catch Fenerbahçe for second spot, while Fenerbahçe can still catch Molde for top spot. They’ll want to win this match.
I must say, given their recent visits to Glasgow there’s a temptation to say we should toss this game purely to ensure no one else in Europe has to endure the scumbags in the Ajax support until at least the summer. It’s not like Police Scotland have done anything to curb their aggression after all.
However, we can’t do that. For one thing, tossing a game is not the Celtic way and if we did that I’d be raging and I wouldn’t be alone. Not that I think for one second those in charge at Celtic care what I think these days, it’s not as if attendance will drop if I continue not to be able to go!
On the other hand, some would point out that we should be going all out to win this game because “oh won’t somebody please think of the coefficient”. Well okay, let’s think about it.
As it stands, Celtic are ranked 50th in Europe. There are 34 teams below us that are still in Europe, with many more who come from countries with teams still in Europe who could get a small increase in their ranking depending on results. Now, of those 34 there will be quite a few who will bow out at the end of this week but there could be some who could catch and overtake us.
AS Monaco could progress to the last 32 of the Europa League and they’re only 3.5 points behind us. You get 2 points for a win so they’re not that far behind us, however they need a win away to Tottenham Hotspur and need to hope Anderlecht don’t beat Qarabağ though, so it’s not that likely.
The next few teams behind us are APOEL Nicosia who are already out, Sporting Braga who are through to the last 32, PAOK Thessaloniki who are out, AS Roma who are in a three way Champions League battle to finish second and third behind Barcelona which includes another team near us BATE Borisov, Beşiktaş who are top of their Europa League group but could still go out, and Fenerbahçe whom we already know we play this week. So beating them would at least keep them at bay.
All of those teams are within six points – three wins – of us. A bit further back, Sparta Prague are already through their Europa League group, Legia Warsaw have a very slim chance of qualifying, Lokomotiv Moscow are in Beşiktaş’s group and could go through with them, Bordeaux are out and Dinamo Zagreb who are bottom of their Champions League group.
So by my reckoning that’s seven teams who could catch us at most. Worst case scenario, Celtic drop to 57th place in the coefficient rankings.
We were 55th this season.
You see, 2010/11 was a dreadful season for our coefficient rankings. We gained just 2.22 points that season. It was dragging our coefficient down compared with the other points we had from the four seasons that followed it. But that season has now dropped off, replaced with this season’s 2.55 as things currently stand. A win in Turkey would boost that to something slightly less rubbish, but at the very least we’re not really any worse off now than we were last season. Indeed, we’re slightly better off going purely by the coefficient value.
And, indeed, the Scottish coefficient story is broadly the same. Scotland are 25th currently, and the countries behind us are unlikely to catch us so we’ll likely stay there. We were 23rd last season, but that makes very little difference to anything. We’d need to be 15th to skip to the third qualifying round of the Champions League, and we’re not getting anywhere near that any time soon.
As far as I can see, this season there is absolutely nothing we can do to the coefficient that will make it worse or better. So we’re as well not worrying about it. Next season we’ll lose a 5.55 so we’ll need to do better then, but even then that’s hardly our 16.86 from 2012/13. That’s the season we need to worry about.
So what do we do with this game? Personally, I’d send the development squad. Last time we had this opportunity was our trip to Rapid Vienna in 2009/10. The likes of Paul Caddis and Paul McGowan started the game, and although we were 3-0 down after 20 minutes we managed to pull it back to 3-3 and McGowan got the crucial injury time equaliser.
Now, yes, we didn’t exactly get much benefit out of them. To be honest, they were probably the best of a bad bunch of Tony Mowbray’s squad, and Neil Lennon basically rebuilt the entire squad the following summer so that should hardly be a surprise. But all indications are that Celtic are far more settled now and everyone at the club is happy with the direction we’re going in, so chances are that’s not going to happen again.
More importantly though, part of Ronny Deila’s remit when he took the job was to improve the turnover of youth players from the academy into the first team. He has reiterated that point himself on a number of occasions recently, and I can think of no better opportunity for doing that than a European match where the outcome is of very little consequence to us.
I’m not saying we fill the team with kids – far from it, that would likely be counter-productive – but there’s no reason we can’t play a few more alongside the experienced players to get them some vital experience. Tierney should be the first name on the team sheet. He’s the one we’ve seen come through already and he’s done well at this level specifically. He’s the one the other kids should be looking at for inspiration and thinking they can do that too.
Maybe this game would be a good chance to see Logan Bailly too. We rarely change our goalkeeper at the best of times, and Gordon hasn’t exactly been at his best of late, so why not give him a go?
I’d love to make a few more suggestions, but to be honest I don’t know who we have that’s any good in the development squad. The only other name I know is Aidan Nesbitt, and I haven’t actually seen him play. The fact I’ve heard his name though suggests he can’t be too far away.
We have nothing to lose and everything to gain. We’re out regardless of what happens in Turkey and the coefficient is going nowhere. The best thing we can get out of this game is confidence and experience.
Krys (Twitter @krys1888)
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The above article was from hail hail media.
I hate predictive text. The only sure thing it predicts is that it will make its user look stupid..
Don’t know why I persevere with this shirt.
HH.
From the official website.. Celtics that is.
JOHN Collins insists Celtic will be highly-motivated to finish their UEFA Europa League campaign with a flourish despite being unable to qualify for the knockout stages of the competition.
The Hoops headed out to Turkey this morning (Wednesday) ahead of their final group match against Fenerbahce, who require a point to reach the last 32.
On the other hand, the Scottish champions have only pride to play for after a disappointing run of results in the section which had started promisingly with encouraging displays against Ajax and the Istanbul outfit.
However, Celtic’s assistant manager told this week’s Celtic View that this predicament wouldn’t have an adverse effect on the players’ performance.
“We always say to the players that every game is vitally important,” he said in an exclusive interview. “Obviously we can’t qualify, but we want to go there and put on a good performance.
“They are going for qualification so I would imagine it would be a good, intimidating atmosphere out there. It will be a good test for our boys, and we will be looking to go there, get a result, be disciplined and play better than we have in the previous games.
“We had a good home game against Fenerbahce, a match we should have won when we were 2-0 up and coasting, but we let them back into it.
“They have some big names and are a big club, and they will be desperate for a victory, so it will be a big challenge for us, but we will go there and try and play with a good shape and get a good result and performance. We will be motivated, and it’s another challenge for the players to finish with a good performance in Europe.”
The Hoops would have hoped to have gone into the Fenerbahce fixture on the back of three points against Hamilton Accies last Saturday, but Storm Desmond put paid to that, with the league game one of many casualties of the torrential weather.
One positive from the postponement was the extra recovery time afforded to those nursing knocks, namely James Forrest and Kris Commons.
“Thankfully, James and Kris were available for the game and were in the squad, though whether they were ready to start the game I’m not quite sure,” said Collins. “The good news is they had an extra few days to train hard and get ready for Thursday.
“Those with short-term knocks – James and Kris – are coming along nicely and ready with the group to go again, although Charlie will still be out and Browny and Saidy will be longer-term as well.”
Haven’t a clue who Saidy is! The Wee tea wumin?
Saidy Janko.
TD 10.01am
Generally agree with article, would like to see Bailly get a bit of game time & deffo agree re Tierney playing.
Don’t know what is happening with Janko, the few games he played it looked like there was potential there but since then he seems consigned to keep Stoksey from being lonely.
Taking it that Janko is not going to make a sudden resurrection, I’d play Efe right back & go with Jozo & Boyata in the central defense, Joe, Biton, Armstrong (I know) McGovern, Forrest, Allan & Griffiths.
…..he helps the wee tea woman.
From GFS (sports mag.)
Earlier today Scottish newspapers have reported that Celtics are in talks with Red Star Belgrade midfield star Marko Grujic. He is a product of Crvena Zvezda’s youth academy, where he went through the junior program, passed all categories and was the captain of youth teams.
Grujic was watched by Hoop’s and Liverpool scouts on Sunday, where the 19-year-old scored a goal that impressed scouts of both teams.
It won’t be easy for Ronny Deila’s side to lure player at Celtic Park as Liverpool officials have made an approach to bring him to Anfield in January when the transfer window will be re-opened.
It is believed that 19-year old star won’t Leave Belgrade for less than £3.6 million, so Liverpool are probably the favorites to secure the services of the midfielder, but Hoops will try their luck to lure talented Serbian star in Glasgow.
Ronny Deila has clearly seen something in Grujic, which makes him a top transfer target for Celtic’s boss in January.
Meanwhile, Everton have also joined the race for Serbian star and keen on to sign him, but it is understood that Liverpool and Celtic are frontrunners.
Corkcelt
I am a big fan of Forrest but I would leave him at home as he has only just recovered from an injury. An extra few day would be extra insurance.
JJ
Well I should have waited for the 10.16 article before I posted. Obviously Janko is out injured, I didn’t know that.
Agreed Jungle Jim, forgot he was injured. Not thinking too clearly this morning better give myself a break before I make an ass of myself.
Corkcelt
I have given myself many a break and it has not worked for me 0:-)
JJ
Jjungle Jim, LOL. Have to have a break anyhow, a few chores to be done.
Just play the kids. Nothing to lose and a bit of experience for them.
RD should use Thursday’s game to experiment. Try a different system that may, next season, make us difficult to score against whilst still being able to break at pace on the counter and score. The likelihood is we don’t have players good enough to do this but by at least trying something different it may help identify where we need to strengthen in January.
Would three central defenders improve us defensively in Europe, allowing the pace of the likes of Tierney, Janko (when fit), Forrest bomb up and down the wings. This would also allow us to play two up front and have three in central midfield.
I also think Logan Baily should get a run out.
Gary 67,
I agree we should use Thursday’s game to experiment.
A very confident Ronny may well do, if he’s convinced his position is secure. Because make no mistake the ” Ronny out” brigade will be ready to pounce.
HH.
Will any of the Ronny out camp make public any thoughts on the team before kick off??
HH
The Martin article – “…Dermot Desmond, suavely dressed in an immaculate grey suit, breezed into the luxurious suite at the exclusive London hotel…” – that’s a bit “succulent-lamb”-esque, is it not?
HH
BGFC
When I hear anyone , usually in the pub, say any/all of these things, I have no respect for their opinions:
Scottish Football is rubbish;
The League is too easy for Celtic;
Ronny Deila is a `rookie` Manager;
He ( RD ) has no Plan B;
Attendance are dwindling;
If RD does not win the Treble, he should be sacked.
Cheerio for now,
JJ
Jingle bells Jim,
I agree.
Although I do have a few acquaintances I still respect after saying cheerio for now.
It’s just a wee bit courtesy to let ye know they are leaving :))
HH
The Record provokes FFin’ hysterics:
“The SDL – and their links to Rangers-supporting casuals the Inter City Firm – were highlighted as one of the far-right groups trying to capitalise on public fears about the Paris atrocities and the ongoing refugee crisis….
The report said: ‘Founded in September 2009 … the Scottish Defence League were set up by, among others, the hooligan Inter City Firm (ICF) attached to Glasgow Rangers FC’.”
——
“The onslaught of hatred against everything [Sevco] continues unabated.”
——
“The hatred in the country as just reached an all time high!!”
——
“That is absolutely unbelievable. Literally, the worst thing I’ve ever had written about us.”
——
“This is a co-ordinated attack make absolutely no doubt about this folks.”
——
“We are being tarnished on an almost daily basis.”
——
“This is all coordinated and planned.”
——
“Did they state that sellick were anti simetic when their fans attacked Ajax fans?
Did they say sellick were anti simetic when their fans attached themselves to that well known anti simetic club St Pauli?”
——
“Equally has anyone noted, how in Britain, the voicefourous minority at times dictates to the majority, something about empty barrels make most noises.”
——
“[Sevco] support who, I can assure you, neither condone or promote racism in any shape or form . . . and in fact the club have made great strides towards integration within the Glasgow and wider communities.”
——
“Bannings need to take place now.”
——
“[Sevco] will have to be all over this as they are basically just said [Sevco] are racist by proxy!!!!”
——
“Ban sine die – nothing else is good enough. This has to be the last straw.”
——
“Rangers is being subjected to reputational damage on a daily basis now, this is contaminating our corporate brand, it is now time for the plc board to take heads.”
——
“Over the last 30 years I have watched (from outside Scotland) as Rangers and Rangers Fans have been demonised by Fenians, Lefties, and Republicans in the media.”
In other news, relatives of the late Harold Shipman to consider legal action over damage said to have been done to the late GP’s reputation.
Afternoon Timland from a warm hun free mountain valley.
Monaghan
They really live on another planet so they do.
The last couple of sentences nearly got me :-)
HH
what did harold shipman have for his last meal
I don’t know…..
what did harold shipman have for his last meal
curry with a nan
Scottish football is a ‘dead man walking’ and all the tinkering at the edges will make no difference.
There is not the money available to sustain a full time game in Scotland.
Things are similar to the ‘death’ of the stupid independence project – there never was, is not, and never will be an economic case for separation, unless of course you tell blatant lies like the SNP.
Now we know that the SPFL and the SFA are not adverse to telling ‘porkies’ – in fact they actively encourage proven liars to be involved at all levels of the game.
Sad to say, that Celtic are being dragged down in the ‘quicksand of unsustainability’ and it is only a matter of time untill we are overtaken by the likes of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and take our place among the minnows of the Irish leagues when it comes to relevancy in European competition.
Scotland will become a most depressing place to be for future generations – dependent on a tourist trade washed out by increasingly inclement weather and the whisky industry, due to declining sales, becoming a specialised cottage enterprise.
A far cry from Salmond’s tripe about a Scottish Tiger – tigers will soon be all but extinct, so will Scotland, as anything other than the poorer, benefit-dependent, nothern part if the UK, with amatuer numpty politicians fiddling away in ticky-tacky, Ikea-like, self-assembly Holyrood, if of course it remains standing and does not end up in the scrapyard alongside the Forth Road Bridge.
FRED QUIMBY
I’ll make an exception from the rules imposed by my moniker suffix in order to cheer you up. Just the kinda guy I am.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2mn36a
Has the retard retracted the roger Mitchell quotes? Canny find them
MASTY
Long time no see,bud!
Article is still on the site,but not on the lead page.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/rangers-come-regret-letting-dave-6974487
How ye M?
Don’t like the new set up mate, spoiled a great site in my opinion, along with the lunatics that have taken over.
Masty
Agree
When I log in each day it tries to forward me to about 5/6 different random sites.. I’m forced to keep hitting back and then try find where I left off.
Complete pain
MASTY
I’m fine and dandy,old bean. Like yourself,hopefully.
Sadly,a lot of people have a similar opinion to your own. I’m hoping I can mibbe twist an arm or two over the next coupla days to try and restore some sort of order to the place.
Like,a return to pre-CQTEN would be a start.
IMO,there’s little point complaining about the place going to the dogs and not trying to do something about it-having said that,most people did try to do that before they chucked it!
CELTICROLLERCOASTER has made a good start by setting up a Christmas Quiz next Friday. To make it interesting,BIG NAN should disable Celticwiki for the night,haha!
BMCUW
Glad you took my advice on Saturday and got back on here pronto.
Groovy new moniker btw. :)
PB
How are ye mo chara
Don’t use my lappy now except for work, tablet as slow as a week in bar, and phone almost impossible , constantly bombarded with ads,
Only my opinion though,
PROUDBHOY
Same happens to me when using mobile wifi. When on the cloud or on the house b/b,it’s fine.
Try turning off JavaScript,that works for me. Problem is,it disables some sites,including YouTube.