Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.
My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.
An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:
“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”
So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.
The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.
Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.
Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity. Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.
My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.
Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.
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Tlwio
My feelings exactly. If I had been at the 7 1 game, I wouldn’t have been able to look when willie fernie took the penalty.
Davidopolous: ; had a few of those myself. I thought Charlie Nicholas should have been subbed at half time the day he scored two goals against Deidco at Celtic Park.
Jungle jim hot smoked
I think it should be Stevie Chalmers.
Good to see bmcuwp back.
Mild and bright morning in central California.
Hail Hail
GGH
I wasn`t looking for recommendations 0:-). I am looking for details of the Bank involved and how to make a recommendation.
Whilst awaiting, though, I had a wee glance back and noticed suggestions for improvements in our game. Whilst agreeing with Canamalar that this has elements of the squirrel about it, I would like to see a return to 3 o` clock , Saturday KO`s for all teams in Caledonia.
JJ
GGH
Stevie Chalmers used to live not far down the road from me many years ago.
My £10 vote , much as I would like to see Jock Stein`s face on it, would be for James Clerk Maxwell.
JJ
That’s the problem with having a local. I went in, thinking I will try something different. By the time I got to the bar, the barman had pulled an efes. Ah well….
Bet that it still tastes great Norman! Afiyet olsun!
Ha ha, cheers Eddie, you heading up to Istanbul?
It must be David Murray’s face on the plastic ten pound note !
His economic strategy in the last twenty years has been a joy
Winning Captains.
Thanks for your reply re the annual. ach am a wee bit disappointed as it had the habit of reviewing the year past and the looking ahead to the year to come. i was looking at some of the past ones and like you say a lot of old names in there.
in January 2015 that Herald article will stand the test of time.Cheers.
HH
Face for the tenner?
Iain Banks of Scotland…
Hello Norman, I’m still swithering! Just been looking at AtlasJet flights for Thursday morning & Friday evening, and hotels in Taksim.
Luciano Pavarotti?
bournesouprecipe
Aye, he had a great Carreras as a tenor…
CRC
Happy birthday from the Gang!
Do it, and i will find you a ticket tomorrow….. I hope. I will be in Taksim tomorrow a.m, so if you say so, I will ask about.
Winning Captains.
Thanks for your reply re the annual. ach am a wee bit disappointed as it had the habit of reviewing the year past and the looking ahead to the year to come and is a wee tradition gone .i was looking at some of the past ones and like you say a lot of old names in there.
was looking at some january archive,top move in January getting the Article out on the 25th January in the Sunday Herald.
as always well done with the kitchens and Marys meals work.
:-)
HH
Sorry to hear there is no CQN Annual this year.
I really appreciate all the work and time that went in to the last two productions.
Thank you!
Now, what can I read during the Christmas Holiday?
Davido
Took your opera tunity.
Fergus Mccann on the tenner.
Murray on the fiver.
ach were is me donkey hat:-) ee -aw ee aw hahaha apologies for the new improved error
HH
Many happy returns of the day to CRC have a good one M.
Geordie…..
Brilliant!
Another wee reminder re the new look CQNBookstore.com
Some of the highlights on there are The Winds of Change, Celtic The Early Years and Scott Brown My Celtic Story – all produced by CQN Books!
We also have the Neilly Mochan DVD (book coming shortly for those who have ordered) and the new Celtic Game Changer DVD.
Plenty of other stuff too, including any of the 3 editions of the CQN Annuals.
In terms of signed books we have signed copies of Tommy Gemmell All The Best and Yogi bare by John Hughes. Archie Macpherson has also signed our copies of his Jock Stein book.
As always your support is appreciated! All orders received so far have been dispatched, excluding the Neilly Mochan books.
Philbhoy ,
Whoa! Watch tWatch
League Cup is a pile of crap.
Just scrap it!
If not scrapping it Celtic should just tell League it is not a high priority tournament and that it will forewith be used to provide game time and competition for out Under 21’s/B team (or whatever we call it now). Fans expectations of winning tournament should be managed in the knowledge that it is not highpriority and will be used for this purpose.
MWD says thats the plan.
PS. Welcome back BMCUWP-ITBSTT
bournesouprecipe
Well, puns are my aria of expertise.
I saw it mentioned by Harry Brady on Twitter that the format of the league cup should consider the ‘Magic Weekend’ style that happens in rugby league and rugby union.
This has been phenomenally successful in rugby. Basically a whole series of fixtures are played over 2 days in one stadium.
This could be replicated in a regional cup group for sure. Fans buy one or two day passes, various packages, you get to see your team and others. If you back it up with fan parks and facilities then folk come along with families, watch games, spend some cash, driving up services franchise fees, advertising and TV interest.
Think of the Ajax/Emirates Tournaments, the Wembley Cup we competed in. With qualification for the league cup at steak the interest is more acute, goal difference, penalty shoot outs are all in the offing and immediate. What I would consider as innovative is half an hour each way on that weekend, faster games, more excitement, straight to penalties with a draw.
Christmas gift – ideas for HamiltonTim
An Tearmann
There have been 3 CQN Annuals so you might have missed one!
If anyone wants a copy of the Sunday Herald from 25th January let me know. I have about a dozen left. We mailed them all over the world, hopefully those who received them put the text to good use.
Davido
Indeed, if it’s not Baroque don’t fix it , we need to get Bach to basics and stop Messiaen around, otherwise it’s too hot to Handel.
Cringeworthy CSC
Oh ffs. I’m having a melt doon here. :0
What I was going to say….
Philbhoy,
Ach I’ve no real problem with Murray going on the tenner.
I’d even do a run of fivers with brother Jamies face on :))
HH
Happy returns many times over CRC. Have an excellent birthday.
MWD checking th dumps counter. Must be around about 55 me reckons
Bmcuw
here,was readin a post this morning,majoc or sumdi like that,blidi this n that so he was,fair reminded me of you :-)
keep arguin the piece :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7I6NA1jNUs
Barleycorn The last Farewell.
HH
MOONBEAMSWD on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 4:24 PM
League Cup is a pile of crap.
– See more at: http://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/next-goals-the-winner/comment-page-3/#comment-2733506
It is only a pile of crap when, like Celtic you don’t win it too often.
The Champions League is a pile of crap.
Well, we don’t win that one too often either.
(Only kiddin’)
BSR
The problem with classical music puns is that not everyone will be Abel to Chopin…