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Next goal’s the winner

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.

My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.

An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:

“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”

So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.

The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.

Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.

Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity.  Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.

My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.

Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.

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  1. RWE on

    Thanks guys…

     

     

    Laughed when he called for a free kick to Dukla after 5 seconds…

     

     

    There was another auld white haired guy who sometimes covered the games too.

     

     

    David Francey was the radio man mostly, as far as I can recall.

     

     

    I want to know what happened to the Dukla money..

     

     

    75,000 official attendance with the players on 30 quid a week plus a bonus for a win.

     

     

    NOWA

  3. sipsini on

    Just logged on to see the esteemed BMCUWP has returned to the blog, good man bobbie, missed your wit mate. HH

     

     

    A big hoopy birthday to CRC, another smashing bloke. HH

  7. Hrvatski Jim on

    David Murray’s face on a tenner issued by Bank of Scotland.

     

     

    Weimar Republic……you don’t know what hyper inflation is yet!

  8. Coneybhoy on

    A lot of talk on here recently about scrolling past posters or long running arguments.

     

     

    Just like to say I like to scroll ‘forward’ to when BSR and Davidopolous are playing ‘dueling puns’ like the music based one today.

     

     

    That humour is right up my strasse and long may it continue – fair cheered me up this afternoon!!

  9. beatbhoy on

    What would be great about a new, shiny-bright League Cup tournament would be if all clubs partaking had, on all SPFL literature and websites pertaining to the competition, the correct date of their foundation, and any accreditation of honours they have won in their history to be within one million miles of the truth!

     

     

    I’d pay to watch that!

     

     

    Official recognition of the New Club truth is the real prize.

     

     

    Anything else, including title-stripping/reallocation is secondary to that.

     

     

    Hail Hail!

  12. Marrakesh Express on

    RWE

     

     

    The Dukla game is one of my all time favourites. My school team St Dominics more or less won the league v St Pauls in Shettleston an hour before the game. Straight to CP for a magic night. I was perched under the cover back of Celtic end. A great view above the sea of swaying bodies. Unbelievable atmosphere.

  13. cyrenean on

    Hail Hail CQNers

     

     

    I was sat here willing somebody to come up with the correct answer to the commentator…George Davidson. Well done Dennytim.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  14. jamesgang on

    I think Scottish football has plenty of ‘unexpected’ twists that keep my guessing. It’s why we have referees!

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  15. RWE on

    I can see Peter Thomson in my mind – chubby faced guy with dark combed back hair and thick Buddy Holly glasses..personality on screen was zero..

     

     

    Dennytim

     

     

    I think your suggestion is who I’m thinking of..

     

     

    Cheers

     

     

    NOWA

  16. !!Bada Bing!! on

    I think the utterings of no mark Mitchell, is a pre emptive strike on behalf of his old employers. Regan and Co will want King jailed/fined tomorrow, so they can bin him.If Ashley goes after the SFA with both barrels, he will possibly open up the whole corrupt business

  18. Sandman on

    Next goal’s the winner?

     

     

    Football tried that – remember the Golden Goal extra-time conclusions?

     

     

    Mad egames a shambles- inferior teams parking the bus to get to the extra-time period and then trying to catch one on the break.

     

     

    Made matches MORE defensive.

     

     

    That’s why we’re back to extra-time and pens.

     

     

    Football always defies theory.

     

     

    As we’re finding out under Ronny…

  21. Tim Malone Will Tell on

    Printing tenners with Minty Moonbeams face on them – is that what Corbyn means by quantitive easing fur ra peepul?

  22. Sandman on

    ‘Parts of London are so radicalized that the police won’t go into them for fear of their lives’

     

     

    Donald Trump.

     

     

     

    ‘The only reason I wouldn’t go to some parts of New York is the real chance of bumping into Donald Trump’

     

     

    Boris Johnson.

     

     

     

    LOL, belter.

  23. cyrenean on

    I have witnessed many tremendous atmospheres at Celtic matches since around 1955. That night versus Dukla Prague has to be one of the finest.

     

     

    75,000 fans believing we were on the verge of British football history and yet the possibility of falling at the final hurdle was very real to all of us. Taking a 2 goal lead to Prague and deserting our normal Attack Attack Attack philosophy sent half of Scotland into delirium while the other half faced the prospect of a Celtic victory in Lisbon (it couldnae happen, could it?). Fantastic 0-0 in Prague and we were there.

     

     

    Good being a Tim.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  27. Canamalar it looks like OCD obsession on

    Maybe the mint could do a special issue of thrupenny bits for the heros of the rangers and sevco saga

  29. GerryBhoy on

    BOURNESOUPRECIPE on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 6:16 PM

     

    David Francy – the face behind the voice

     

     

    “Up go the heads°

  31. Philbhoy on

    RWE

     

     

    The Dukla link was brilliant, thank you!

     

     

    The games that followed were equally fabulous too!

  34. TBJ says Wee Oscar Knox is in heaven with the angels on

    Sandman

     

     

    Not often I agree with Boris but in this occasion I do

     

     

    Stunning racism from trumpet. … he should never be allowed to set foot in this country again

  35. hankray on

    Cyerenean………………Definitely a fine win by Celtic against Dukla Prague who were one of the best teams in Europe and were the backbone of the great Czech team at that time. Unfortunately this once great side has faded into oblivion when the big Tv money fattened the five major leagues in Europe. Celtic was the only show in town in those days and I remember many nights as a kid waiting in vain for BBC to show the highlights of those great nights, unfortunately the games only went out on BBC Scotland. Still remains a mystery to me why these games did not go out on the main BBC platform.

  36. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    BSR,

     

     

    George Davidson took over the mike when Thompson went behind the desk.

     

    It was the former who eulogised about Jinky.

     

     

    Is Mitchell positioning himself for a comeback to a New Improved SPFL?

  37. beatbhoy on

    Big Bad John picks up the Team Of The Year trophy at the BBC Wales Sports Personality Of The Year Awards.

     

     

    I mean, I know he’s a big unit, but. . . . . . . .

  41. Ron Bacardi on

    Billy McNeil heading cup final goal against Dunfermline, and heading last minute winner against Vojvodina in Europe cup, and heading goal against at Hampden in first leg of world club championship against Racing Club

  42. RWE on

    TheTimReaper

     

     

    Thanks for that reminder.

     

     

    I’m back in Manhattan again this week, so Central Park and Strawberry Fields beckons.

     

     

    Imagine CSC

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