Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.
My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.
An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:
“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”
So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.
The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.
Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.
Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity. Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.
My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.
Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.
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GERRYBHOY on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 6:28 PM
BOURNESOUPRECIPE on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 6:16 PM
David Francy – the face behind the voice
“Up go the heads°
=========================================
Arthur Montford.
Along with : ” What a stramash.”
Ron Bacardi
And his header to open the scoring in the 4-0 cup final v deidco.
Great memories.
Sandman on 8th December 2015 6:07 pm
Couldn’t agree more about encouraging attacking football. How about one of my favourites from my youth
……10 half time, 21 the winner.
Can anyone fill me in on the Glib ones predicament tomorrow-is he in the serious soapy?
EDDIEINKIRKMICHAEL on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 5:21 PM
A good read Eddie, my God to think what big Jock would have done to current spineless, anti Celtic SMSM.
Dan
Good to see that the decision to extend bombing to Syria has already had a positive effect.
According to Gideon, it has given Britain its mojo back.
I suppose that’s as good a reason as any to do a bit of bombing.
George Davidson was in the normal mould of BBC Scotland sports reporters.
However, as the Lions progressed, he became a fan of the team, for purely football reasons. He was particularly fond of Jim Craig, in his comments.
I remember reading something he wrote after he retired.
He reminisced about after a European game at Celtic Park on a cold winter’s night.
He said that the normal practice after a match was for the broadcast crew to stay in their perch, above the Jungle in our case, dismantling their gear.
By the time they came down and made their way round to the tunnel, everyone had left the ground.
However, this night, there was a member of the staff waiting for them and took them into the boardroom for post natch refreshment.
I think he mentioned that this was at the behest of Desmond White.
BHRUTUS on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 7:13 PM
Can anyone fill me in on the Glib ones predicament tomorrow-is he in the serious soapy?
according to this chap blog he is indeed in some serious soapy
others will tell you this blog is nonsense,,,,,take your pick
https://johnjamessite.wordpress.com/2015/12/08/a-little-local-difficulty/
BHRUTUS on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 7:13 PM
Can anyone fill me in on the Glib ones predicament tomorrow-is he in the serious soapy?
Why should he be? He is after all a fit and proper person.
– See more at: http://www.celticquicknews.co.uk/next-goals-the-winner/comment-page-5/#comment-2733592
David Francey
“There’s a mix up between Neef and Goalkeeper Hood”
Colemanballs CSC
My outstanding memory of Francey is him nearly pishing himself as he waxed eloquent about the banners flying as THEY went three up against us.
Just another in a long line of BBC Scotland tubes.
BHRUTUS
No he is not, a slap on the wrist at worst.
HH
A wee update on the progress re getting the left back who made the pass to Willie Wallace in that Dukla match to get full access to Celtic matches when he gets home from hospital.
Celtic today gave me full access to Celtic TV for Tommy.
We raised around £650 on the blog over the weekend. We will pick up a laptop for Celtic TV viewing and have sorted out the Sky installation for 8th January. We will sort BT when that’s done so he’ll not miss a match.
I went to see the warden to make sure we could get Sky in without any problems. Apparently all the other residents have it already.
As Tommy be online more I’ll even get Paul to remind him of his CQN log-in details! Maybe he’ll pop in here unannounced!
Thanks again to the CQNers who assisted. That’s Tommy’s Christmas present sorted!
Right ghirls and bhoys, my granddaughter is ordering you all to google myelfname and Post it …. Anyone who doesn’t do will be called humbug for the rest of their life …..you have to understand, she is the CHOSEN ELF, COOKIE FLOPPY FEET, SHE WHO WILL BE OBEYED……
lionroars67….
I like the johnjames blog, like most he doesn’t always call it right, Re Greens court costs.
I think he was astonished by the decision but haven’t we all lately with some of the obscene results! Hope you’re well mate. HH
Ger 67, I know it’s 57 think it was Bmcuw that old me off the last time ;)
Catch up for a beer soon mate. HH
“I see similarities between the two men in the way they play. Like Socrates, Nir has very good technique and is a very clever player in his head.”
The boy Socrates was certainly a player.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ur5fGSBsfq8
WC
get him chromecast to send Celtic tv to his tellie if not already
67Heaven
Cookie Pointy-Toes
I quite like it :-)
HH
Winning captains.
Contact me re laptop.
Special price. Much discount.
Thank you for replying and my name is Cookie Floppy- Feet
Will try be mad when he finds out his blog name is used all ready by
Winning gemmell
The Exiled Tim,
I logged into mqn there.
Masonic quick news.
New article.
Next goat’s the winner
67Heaven- snowball Mocking-Mo
On a drawn match going to penalties to get the extra points.
I would make it sudden death . So even on the first each penalty someone could win on sudden death.
Saint Stivs
Can you email me on this?
David@cqnpublishing.co.uk
I actually hate when any of our games go to penalties. Torturous.
SIPSINI on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 7:33 PM
lionroars67….
I like the johnjames blog, like most he doesn’t always call it right, Re Greens court costs.
I think he was astonished by the decision but haven’t we all lately with some of the obscene results! Hope you’re well mate. HH
Johnjames clearly hates King and co, at times he hits the nail on the head ref all the wrongs they have done to Scottish football and from my own personal experience of them, he is a rare species from the dark side in that respect, like all legal systems the world over the verdicts are never guaranteed, we do not Ashley can afford top legal advocates to fight his legal battles, he is a formidable opponent
Im doing good mate hope to catch with you at some event in the new year HH
–
Whitedodhunch
Can you email me instructions and I will sort?
SIPSINI on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 7:33 PM
Andy Newport @AndyNewportPA
Dave King’s London court hearing for case alleging he breached Sports Direct gagging order pushed back to Thursday
Haz una reverencia, hijo!
What a goal!
David Silva 1-0, but even as I type, 1-1.
SAINT STIVS on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 7:53 PM
I actually hate when any of our games go to penalties. Torturous.
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Me too mhate….I ‘ve walked oot of the last 3 ?or 4? and we’ve won them
so I’ll have to keep it going :O)
———
Welcome back the curled up winkle.
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Happy birthday CRC
Saw Moenchengladbach v Cologne back in 1977, not long before they lost to Liverpool in the EC final.
Visiting a mate who stayed there, while I was working in Germany.
Vogts, Bonhof, Stielike, Heynkes and the Dane, Simonsen.
Some Mannschaft to have seen live, but I was missing us winning the double unfortunately!
Just seen the corrs on the telly wooft
Still stunning so they are.HH
Thanks again for all the kind birthday wishes. Had a great day!
HH
CRC.
WC
done
Cracking goal from Wolsberg there…
St Stivs @ 7.53.
I was on youtube , a phrase that could be applied to me, the other night. I found footage of us winning on penalties at Pittodrie in 1986 , in a league cup quarter final.
It was a great night made even better as we only had ten men and Wullie Miller missed ,or Packie saved, in the shootout. Choccy scored the winning penalty and didnt half skelp it.
The crowd in the Beach End were brilliant at that game.