Can’t believe the cantankerous negativity which surrounds the relatively innocuous introduction of an extra point for the early-round League Cup group. This competition is our least precious, below the Scottish Cup, League title, Champions League, Europa League and at the top of the tree, the Petrofac Cup. Its purpose should be to experiment, especially in the early rounds.
My only issue with the change is its overwhelming conservatism. If you’re going to make changes, be bold.
An objective of any change in our domestic game or competitions should be to increase excitement and drama. Some work has gone into this with the research paper, Suspense and Surprise, by Ely, Frankel and Kamenica, who collected data from 24,000 ‘soccer’ matches across 67 leagues to “compute suspense and surprise generated from each soccer match”. It’s a weighty document, but in brief, they conclude that football is characterised by having plenty of suspense – during any minute a critical goal can be scored, but surprises, either during the game or with respect to the outcome, are few. They write:
“In any given minute of a soccer game, it is very likely that nothing consequential happens. Whichever team is currently ahead becomes slightly more likely to win (since less time remains). There is a small chance that a team scores a goal, however, which would have a huge impact on beliefs. So belief paths in soccer are smooth, with few rare jumps. This sustained small probability of large belief shifts makes soccer a very suspenseful game.”
So your game is suspenseful as a result of nothing consequential happening during any particular minute. It’s that “nothing consequential” line which is a tad disturbing.
The reason I’m referencing this is that on analysing his paper, Frankel accepted (in his academic terms) what kids and five-a-side players have known for decades. A football game where the winner is not decided by the team which scores most goals, but where the “next goal’s the winner” rule holds true, adds crushing drama and excitement to the suspense of the game.
Winning by six goals? So what, it’s next goal’s the winner now – and your chances of winning are no better than 65%. I’m not advocating a competition with this rule – football fans are far too conservative for that, but it’s worth considering why people watch sport, or any other pastime. Put the question differently, a ‘next goal’s the winner’ sport would never drop its dramatic finale to adopt a system which would allow teams to create winning lead with 75% of the game remaining.
Football has come a long way since the formation of the Football Association in 1863. It has cultural resonance and occasionally athletic brilliance, but for the most part the game flourished without that brilliance. It simply offered better entertainment than was on offer elsewhere. Football has never been dependent on skillful wizardry, for the most part this is a rarity. Don’t listen to people who tell you style or ability determines interest in the game, it doesn’t and never has done. The game will live or die on its ability to throw up drama and suspense.
My guess is that the game will last another 150 years, but it will be completely unrecognisable from the sport you and I know. It will be forced to change by increasingly sophisticated and diverse entertainment options.
Always play ‘next goal’s the winner’ at fives, unless it rankles your conservative tendencies too much.
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If Citeh were to fine Sterling a grand for every shot he hits off target, they’d get their money back in no time!
Beatbhoy at 8.13,
Allen Simunsen, what a player he was.
Did he win the the European player of the year at Munchengladbach?
1-2. Citeh sieve In operation, against a sharp Moenchengladbach.
Dallas Dallas
Yeah, Simonsen won it in 1977 despite losing that final to Liverpool.
Greased lightning, great technique and a finisher. I think he scored in finals of all 3 major European trophies, probably a unique record.
Ze engelish commentators nun too happy :)
Ex Celtic player that played for Wolfsburg?
Beatbhoy, thanks .
I wasn’t sure he had won it or not. Considering the talent of some of his team mates and other magnificent players across Europe in the mid 70’s, it was some achievement for Allen Simonsen to win the european player of the year in 1977.
Personally, I would have given it to our Danny that year but I’m biased.
Rudi Vata?
Brian O Neill
Hinkel
Lubo
Bourne, Brian O’Neill ?
Thom?
CRC
Happy birthday mucker
Brian O’Neil?
Love
Brian O’Neill
GSL’s hearing put back to Thursday.
CRC
Happy Birthday!
TTR
Hearts tickets up mate.
Sounds like the Green Brigade in German.
Etims twitter saying possibilty of Bolton being given a winding up order by HMRC .
It will be interesting, if the above is correct, how the English media focus on the club or holding company that will be wound up.
No doubt the media here, if Bolton are wound up , will have a huge picture of Neil next to the article .
Dallas Dallas
Think Danny Bhoy was slightly handicapped by the Hoops being knocked out by Wisla Krakow in the first round of the UEFA Cup that season!
Real Madrid 6: Malmo 0 !!!!!!
Malmo fairing well, looking like double figures, 6-0 down at the Bernabau.
Dallas
BMGladbach had an excellent side in the late 70s. They beat Dortmund 12-0 in a 78 Bundesliga game.
Beatbhoy, even taking into account our early European exit that season, Danny should still have won it. Not that i am making that decision with green and white hooped specs on , of course.
Talking of commentator George Davidson I recall an old firm game when Colin Stein missed a sitter at Celtic Park.
He turned back to be caught on camera muttering ( F* F* S* )
Our George said ” Oh my ! Colin Stein must be saying to himself how on earth did I my miss that one ”
Quality from the old Hun*
Real 7 Malmo 0
Could have been us CSC
Real Madrid v Malmo 11-0 ( on aggregate )
* 12-0 *
Madrilenyos sittin’ there thinkin’ “How bad would ye need to be to lose tae that lot!!”
NORTH CYPRUS (FORMERLY BAKU) BHOY on 8TH DECEMBER 2015 9:03 PM
Real Madrid 6: Malmo 0 !!!!!!
===============================================
Malmo crying all the way to the bank.
True, but at least our fans are not suffering in the Bernabeau(?).
8-0 now, Oh Dear
8-0
Real Madrid 8 Malmo 0
It might be bad enough in Istanbul on Thursday night!
Marrakesh Express, next to Bayern, Gladbach were the German team who were great to watch(on the few occasions we got to see them on the telly) in the mid 70’s with the like of the players Beatbhoy mentioned earlier.
The fact they wore green and white strips attracted me to them also.
When we played them in a pre season game a few years ago, I liked the way the attacked and defended as a unit. They were also not slow in making their presence felt, their goalie in particular clattering Tony Watt outside the box.
Although I’m praying that we will gub them, obviously!!!!