The first half of our Champions League campaign saw games against both our Pot 1 teams (Dortmund, Leipzig), one of our Pot 2 teams (Atalanta), and Slovan Bratislava, who were the highest ranked Pot 4 team – immediately below Celtic in the rankings.
Before a ball was kicked, my expectations at this stage was to be sitting on 3 points, while Opta told us finishing with 9 points would be enough to qualify in 69% of simulations. A lot has changed since.
There are some ominously strong Champions League sides below us. Atletico, Real Madrid, Milan and Bayern Munich (all on 6 points), with PSG on 4. Nice, though it would be to see them drop out, we should expect all four to finish strong.
Opta have not updated these specific stats since this week’s results but if they do, the chance of qualification on 9 points will be significantly less than 69%. 10 points, which they previously allocated a 99% chance, is now likely to be the cutoff, with a lot less certainty than at the start of the season.
Tuesday’s performance was so impressive that we have earned the right to look forward confidently, but we are not alone. Brugge’s win over Aston Villa last night put them on 6 points ahead of their visit to Glasgow this month.
They had a poor start to the season but their only defeat since September was away to Milan. Matchday 5 could put us looking at a seeded position, or we could be among those looking ominously at Atletico, Real and the like. There are no hiding places at this altitude.
Not everyone has this stress, look out for our Coefficient Monkeys to earn us some points in the lesser leagues tonight.
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Regarding the new format – I think most fans see it as much more interesting while mostly safeguarding the interests of the top teams who were surely involved in the design of it (it was part of the fall out from their super league breakaway proposal). The fact that some of them are underperforming is surely not the fault of the new format?
It would not totally surprise me if, in 5 years or so, there is a 2nd Division to replace the Europa League following the same format but with playoffs leading to promotions and relegations between the two divisions.
In that way what we are seeing now is perhaps a step in the direction of a European Super League that happens to have the CL trophy as the ultimate prize.
Was in no mood for anything yesterday.
Word of the day was ‘recrudescence.’
No way
This will be great news with AJ if it is finalised:
“The Scottish champions have tabled a deal that will hand the 26-year-old a significant increase in salary and will increase the length of his contract beyond his existing deal of the summer of 2027. Record Sport broke the story in September that the Hoops had opened talks with the Canadian international over a new deal. Those discussions have now advanced significantly.
Johnston’s representative is currently in Scotland just now for talks and to finalise the extension. Celtic sources are confident that a deal will be wrapped up quickly. “
I don’t think Scotland will pick up many coefficient points tonight. They’ll then battle it out on Sunday night. No great need for us to make many changes for Sunday as it’ll be an international break after it
Good afternoon all from the Tolbooth.
Braw.
Back to Basics
Thanks for the reply. I did not have the time or patience to address the argument that we need to be nicer to those who fall for the lies of the new Alt-Right. I think the response below, which has been attributed to Christopher Robichaud (Harvard Ethics Professor)- though I haven’t yet been able to verify this. I think it says it better:-
———————–
“Everyone in the days and weeks ahead will use this loss as an opportunity to seek validation for their own hobby horse complaint. Harris lost because she campaigned with Liz Cheney. Harris lost because she didn’t embrace Gaza. Harris lost because she didn’t choose Shapiro. Harris lost because she wasn’t progressive enough (possibly my favorite one).
Take a good hard look at the map, my friends. Trump has won the popular vote. Trump ran the table. Explaining that with your hobby horse issue isn’t going to cut it, tempting and consoling as it may be.
The problem isn’t the electoral college. The problem isn’t that we didn’t have a full primary. The problem isn’t Harris. The problem isn’t that Dems didn’t have the right message. The problem isn’t even inflation or the border.
The problem is so much worse than any of those things. Those are all technical problems, with straightforward expertise fixes. If only it were so! No, our problem is not technical. It’s very much adaptive. A party that embraced the Big Lie, supported an insurrection, and has been selling conspiracy-addled madness for years was widely and enthusiastically embraced. Voter turnout was profound! People didn’t sit this out.
Simply put, the problem–as some of you have rightly posted–is cultural. America, culturally, has completely abandoned a politics of decency and respect and has embraced instead a politics of resentment, revenge, false nostalgia, and bullying. And if you look at the demographics, you also won’t be able to comfort yourself that it’s just a white thing, or a working class thing, or an education thing. It’s multi-class, multi-gender, multi-educational and multi-racial. That’s what winning the popular vote means. That’s what running the table amounts to.
A culture that has descended to this level of debasement is not easily fixed. In fact it may not ever be fixed. The timeline for changing something like this is decades–at best–not two-to-four year election cycles. You can extend that in this case, because with the GOP likely controlling all branches of federal government and the courts, they will ensure that mechanisms are in place to keep them in power long after their popularity has waned. You can count on that.
The GOP evolved into a party of rage, lies, and revenge–and it correctly diagnosed that there was and is a large appetite for that. That’s what the country wants. At least, enough of the country wants it to ensure broad appeal and widespread electoral success. The old GOP will never return, and the Dems have nothing to say to American culture at the moment. Nothing. They’ve been speaking to a country that’s gone, like dust in the wind.
And that’s my final thought, which my posts last night alluded to. The America I knew and loved is gone. This new America–nah, I won’t even bother. I will say that cultural change is less likely to occur in politics, or in the academy. You’re not going to get people to see how vulgar they’ve become through a clever argument or a nice campaign speech, that’s for sure.
This would be time for the arts, broadly understood, to step in. The arts can change hearts and minds. Too bad the arts have been systematically dismantled in education in this country, and on the other end, the tech industry’s assault on the arts through AI is sure to hollow out any good-faith efforts that might emerge.
And for the rest of the world, America’s rightward lurch is, I’m afraid, bad news for you too. I know you know this. Because it’s not isolated, is it? It’s just at the moment the most prominent example of a burgeoning trend. And this will embolden others in other countries, to be sure. We need not speculate what happens when countries become mired in lies, embrace resentment, and savor bullying. We know exactly what happens. Bloody conflict and global destabilization.
The first quarter of the 21st century will therefore in hindsight be viewed as the seed-planting stage for the absolute shit show that’s about to unfold globally over the next two and a half decades. Count on it.
Adopt whatever coping and endurance strategies you have available. You’re going to need it.
I think that’s all I’ve left to say.”
Congrats to Kyogo for his recall into Japan’s squad along with Daizen and Reo. They have a game on the Friday then the Tuesday before we are away to Hearts on the Saturday. Could be some jet lag there. Daizen certainly looked off it first game back after the last international break.
At the end, there will be loads of teams on the same points and goal difference will be so important.
It’s a pity that the 7 1 Dortmund defeat wasn’t 3 1 or whatever.
Expect more than a few pundits after MatchDay 8, to come out with ‘Oh dear ! My maths isn’t up to this !’.
Powerful penmanship:
‘America, culturally, has completely abandoned a politics of decency and respect and has embraced instead a politics of resentment, revenge, false nostalgia, and bullying.’
And not only America.
GOPWILLEATITSELF CSC
All I heard about leading up to Tuesday’s game was how it was a “must win” for Leipzig.
Not saying it will be easy, but the result against them should give us great confidence, especially at home.
Believing our own hype will be the biggest risk. If we stay humble I think 8 points from our remaining 4 games is achievable therefore what Athletico, Madrid, Milan do is irrelevant in terms of qualifying.
However, I like this new CL format so I hope the big guns finish strong. Toys will be thrown asunder if they don’t and the format will soon revert.
And to the article…
Might have seemed easy to think we’d have hidden after our hiding in Dortmund.
But no; until the pilotage of an excellent instructor (BR) and captain (CMac) we came out flying high and fighting. Every Celt has been on cloud nine following that performance and result.
No sign of BR’s charges looking to hide Paul: We just laid down a very visible marker for other teams to dare take their eye off the ball when facing us. Use the squad judiciously and I feel we can get even stronger. HH
Sorry, that’s disappointing to hear our Japanese bhoys have been called up.
I would have preferred them to go again on Sunday then enjoy some well deserved rest.
DeniaBhoy on 7th November 2024 12:00 pm
not sure I would agree with that as a 5 year vision. i would undermine national competitions as the route to get there. Also, the current format offers two European trophies which is attractive to a lot of clubs.
Kuhnbelievable
DeniaBhoy on 7th November 2024 12:31 pm
Congrats to Kyogo for his recall into Japan’s squad along with Daizen and Reo. They have a game on the Friday then the Tuesday before we are away to Hearts on the Saturday.
Maybe DD will get the private jet out……
DeniaBhoy on 7th November 2024 12:00 pm
It would not totally surprise me if, in 5 years or so, there is a 2nd Division to replace the Europa League following the same format but with playoffs leading to promotions and relegations between the two divisions.
In that way what we are seeing now is perhaps a step in the direction of a European Super League that happens to have the CL trophy as the ultimate prize.
——————————————-
Agree with all you say with special emphasis on the above two paragraphs.
I have always been convinced, after the abortive attempt a couple of years ago, that the Super League was a certainty to happen and only the then blueprint and route had been taken off the table.
What you say makes sense and may appease the ‘big-hitters’ for a time. The ‘second division’, dependent on numbers, may eat into the Europa League with the Conference being very much more a consolation prize that it currently is. The allocation of prize money would be interesting and may replicate the ‘tug of war’ that goes on between the EPL and EFL.
I don’t think it necessarily means bad news for Celtic; perhaps the Scottish Champions would gain automatic entry into division 2 every year with the promotion carrot. Mind you if it was only the champion of the second division that went ‘up’ that would be akin to winning a strengthened Europa League.
Change is gonna come – only a matter of time. HH
The new format really has made the group stages a must watch. Tier 1 clubs playing and taking points off each other has opened up the wider group to smaller clubs.
I’ve no love for RB Liepzig but they were desperately unlucky with their draw – Atletico Madrid, Juve and Liverpool with Inter, Sporting and Aston Villa to come.
PSG have already played Arsenal and Atletico Madrid and can look forward to Man City to come.
I really like this version of the competition but you can be sure the big clubs will demand changes should a few of them miss out making the cut.
quadrophenian on 7th November 2024 12:38 pm
Powerful penmanship:
‘America, culturally, has completely abandoned a politics of decency and respect and has embraced instead a politics of resentment, revenge, false nostalgia, and bullying.’
—————————————-
So sad to see this happening and of course Trump will not have the ‘brake’ of protecting a legacy over the next four years, he will ‘go for broke’ The only legacy he will look to leave is his own selfish right-wing dogma – look out for the US government becoming a grotesque playing out of The Apprentice format with Trump, unrestrained by The House, or, The Senate, becoming a de facto dictator in a cowed democracy.
Brilliant article on BBC site regarding what’s needed to qualify. 10 points 99% to make the top 24 and the play off round.
16 points required to make the top 8.
Not out of our reach if we can repeat Tuesday’s performance.
😃👍⚽️🍀🇮🇪🏆⚽️🇮🇪🍀
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cje0lkk3y38o
Also says we currently have a 14% chance of making top 8 and a 92% chance of making top 24.
Amazing!
Well done Bhoys! 😃🍀🇮🇪🏆⚽️🍀🇮🇪
setting free the bears for Res. 12 & Oscar Knox on 7th November 2024 12:26 pm
Excellent, if somewhat disturbing read. Particularly recognised the reference to ” … a politics of resentment, revenge, false nostalgia, and bullying” More than adequately explain Brexit nationally and the Huns up here in particular. False nostalgia? In spades.
Ave Ave
bournesouprecipe on 7th November 2024 12:50 pm
Kuhnbelievable
BOURNE, what is?
Ave Ave
The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on 7th November 2024 12:42 pm
“However, I like this new CL format so I hope the big guns finish strong. Toys will be thrown asunder if they don’t and the format will soon revert.”
As much as the big guns can steer the format, TV companies and sponsors have as much if not more sway I reckon and I think TV and sponsors will be happy with the new format. What’s not to like for them – more games, more big games in the early stages and I reckon TV figures might also be up. Not only are there more “big games” for neutrals but I know I have watched more CL games than previous years as I have watched other teams we were drawn with in their games (CL and domestic) where as before I might have watched one or two non Celtic games at most out with the later stages.
Really enjoying the format and not just because it’s going well. It does definitely give a slight element of hazard to the standings as with only one game against each team some lesser known teams can perhaps spring a surprise; with no return game to “set it right” as it were.
QB
https://youtu.be/Chj0tPSuMro?si=I8lECLMQJCkKq8C2
A good listen but first
Vote for Khun
https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/player-of-the-week/?sfnsn=scwspwa
i to am liking the 3 league competitions and the big league tables.
one off fixtures as well seems to me are making for more attacking games, as coaches are not concerned over away goals or 2nd legs.
i would suggest the conference league will go to 8 fixtures each as well to get the balance.
whisper it, there could be 3 scottish teams going into the play off rounds.
celtic top 8 finish would be a dream, and comes with an oncredible pay out.
i watched the whole game again, callums influence just after we lost the goal, instructin kyogo where to position, cajooling reo, mentoring arne, it was all there.
he also went to brendan to discuss, and really influenced things.
his best ever performance maybe ?
Stevie Chalmers goal against the hun in 1969. A strike of ageless beauty. 💚
SFTBs,
Superb post.Right on the button.
Shades of Germany in the 30s.Slogans,lies,scapegoats,Rally’s of brainwashed,flags ,banners,threats,it was all there.Make America Great Again,new version of Deutschland Uber Allies.
Win the next one,the top 8 is a real possibility.
All the big team will be facing each other,points dropped everywhere.Look at the fixtures.Real chance if we can play like last couple of games.
We are improving all the time.
a wee clarification, someone yesterday posted that in the playoff round fixtures would be rearranged to avoid teams from same country playing each other, and that teams who met in the league stage couldny be paired,
that is not true.
the draw is fixed already on positions, for example, Atleti Madrid could play Barcelona in the 16 team play off round, or Liverpool could play Aston Villa.
At one point in the results table we would acually have played Atalanta again in the playoff round,
as it stands today our 16 playoff would be real madrid, with the 1st leg away from home,
so a top 8 position would be great fully received.
I hope we should get to 13 points
I wandered lonely as a cloud……
the huddleboard, eulogy for the deceased rangers.
never a truer word spoken.
https://youtu.be/Chj0tPSuMro
‘ Seven past Niven ‘
HM CSC
Good luck to Matt O’Riley, back for Brighton this weekend.
Aff oot
BRRB
“I wandered lonely as a cloud……”
—————————
I wandered lonely as a cloud
That Drinks, gets high, and pays at till
When, just this once, I took a pint
Mine Host had drawn completely fill
Beside the Bar, among the Beers
Belching and Farting & causing a breeze
That’s why I’m lonely as a cloud
setting free the bears for Res. 12 & Oscar Knox on 7th November 2024 12:26 pm
Back to Basics
———————————-
An excellent post.
Prof Robichaud has hit the nail squarely on the head.
Probably won’t affect me too much at my age but
the desperate future faceing my 2 children and my 2 grand children
makes me sick to my stomach.
Thanks for posting that.
HH
Gerry