Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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984 Comments

  1. Big Chris’s take on it, sorry if posted before, I have not read back

     

     

    Ref Steven McLean is “embarrassing” and Alan Muir is an “idiot” … they should NEVER take charge of another game blasts Chris Sutton

     

     

    THE former Celtic striker seethes with calamitous officials but insists there was no point in club firing off letter.

     

     

    CHRIS SUTTON last night blasted “embarrassing” referee Steven McLean and “idiot” assistant Alan Muir and insisted they should never take charge of another big game.

     

     

    The Celtic legend waded into the controversy surrounding his old club and the officials following the Scottish Cup semi-final shocker.

     

     

    Parkhead chiefs have written to the SFA demanding an explanation for the failure to award Celtic a penalty for a clear Josh Meekings handball on Leigh Griffiths’s netbound header in the Hampden tie against Inverness.

     

     

    Sutton sees no point in that move.

     

     

    But he does believe McLean and Muir, who was the fifth official standing just five yards from the incident, should be held accountable for their blunders and punished. Sutton said: “I just can’t understand how they could have missed it from such close range and how they thought the ball hit him on the head. You can’t get that wrong.

     

     

    “They have a job to do and if they’re not up to that job, they shouldn’t do it again.

     

     

    “You can understand Celtic’s frustration. You need accountability.

     

     

    “It’s embarrassing. I can’t understand how that decision was made and what the referee was thinking.

     

     

    “It was idiotic how the extra official (Muir) didn’t see it. I can’t remember a decision that bad from someone standing so close. He must be an idiot not to see it.”

     

     

    But Sutton insists it is pointless for Celtic to write to the SFA.

     

     

    He added: “The SFA will write back and just say he didn’t see it. It’s a waste of a stamp.”

  2. Tony,

     

     

    He was the janny :)

     

     

     

    Jamesgang,

     

     

     

    Aw shucks. I’m honored :)

     

     

    HH

  3. SydneyTim

     

     

    when I say strikers I mean the goal scoring types :) Not the non goal scoring strikers that john park and peter lawell have brought to the club

     

     

    Stokes this season has goals/assist per min rate of 1 per 113 mins, despite mostly playing as a left midfielder. Last season, when he played as a striker, his rate was 1 per 86, the season before that 1 per 74. He is one of our most creative players.

     

     

    Guidetti’s is 1 per 78, not bad for a guy with his heid up his bum.

     

     

    For comparison, Hooper at his best was one per 89.

     

     

    And before anyone says we’re spreading the goals around the team, we’re not, really. Celtic are scoring fewer goals on average this season, despite facing lesser European opposition.

  4. TD

     

     

    Confession time. If you include my year at teacher training college it was 9 years.

     

    I really am THAT thick!

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  5. Longmuir and Ballantyne always wondered why that was allowed to just fade away,

     

     

     

    Those involved in decision making and thoughts of change, are now in the Kubler -Ross mode

     

     

    Denial Anger Bargaining depression ACCEPTANCE.

     

    Till later all

     

    Chores to do

     

    The tenticles of mothers reach far :))))))))))))))))))))))))

  6. Richie #TeamOscarForever on

    67Heaven .. CHALLENGING THE LIE ..I am wee Oscar…… Ipox belongs to the creditors

     

    10:45 on

     

     

    22 April, 2015

     

    I’m hearing that the end we were attacking in the second half was watered at half-time, but not the other half of the pitch …….what was that all about?

     

     

    ———————————————————-

     

     

    They did the ICT half while the shooty-in thing was going on and then switched to the Celtic half. This was when our subs were trying to practice and they had to dodge the sprinklers.

     

     

    What was really strange was that Celtic players were slipping all over the place in the first half in particular so why water further?

  7. If you want an accessible explanation of Philosophy, or an understanding of Charles Dickens, Thomas Hardy, or the treatment of Ireland by England in Victorian/Edwardian times, I suggest the works of G K Chesterton. Yes, he of the Father Brown detective stories.

     

    Hard-to-grasp theories and postulations were made clearer to the average reader in a lucid, well-written format.

     

    If you want poetry with a sweep, and with a historical bent, read Lepanto, the last gret clash of the Christian and Moslem worlds.

     

    In the meantime, if you want a path through the labyrinth that is the \Scottish football establishment, look no further than BRTH, and Auldheid.

     

    Cap doffed, gentlemen.

  8. Leftie

     

     

    Aye but you’re still wiser than Jim Murphy….Ya daftie!!!

     

     

    And no is the answer!

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  9. Sandman

     

     

    I’d like to raise a motion to have the Cookie “monster” removed from the dishonour list.

     

     

    I think it is important to try and understand his addiction before we, as a society, label him a monster.

  10. What is the Stars on

    The decision not to award the penalty was outrageous. If it happened to a team managed by Ferguson or Mourinho the ref would find himself running the line in a pub league game the following Sunday.

     

    However. .We were one nil up and well on top both before and after the decision. ..

     

    Our destiny was in our own hands. I have written to the Norwegian Ambassador demanding an inquiry

     

    I will publish his answer on here later

  11. Chairbhoy. Thank you , just surviving the wet windy weather here. Ozzies saying it’s really bad , worst in years. I am telling them , this is just typical glasgow weather

     

     

    Over the goal. If it wasn’t for commons our goal scoring would be even less

     

    I do hope that ronny has a decent scout and doesnt listen to john park

  12. Seen on twitter

     

    “Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little”. – Edmund Burke.

  13. jamesgang

     

    Only thing I liked at school, was taking the milk round to all the classes, great wee dodge :))

     

    Anyone remember the teachers smoking in the classroom?

     

    Imagine that now, lol.

  14. Richie #TeamOscarForever on

    It may have been covered already, but was Craig Gordon sent off for a dangerous tackle or for preventing a goal-scoring opporchancity?

  15. coolmore mafia on

    POLITICS

     

     

    Just read the Scottish Green manifesto – must say I agree with almost all of it. Well worth a read. I may join.

  16. Richie #TeamOscarForever on

    matt mcglone

     

    ‏@MattMcGlone9

     

    In amongst the mayhem of the ‘Three blind mice’ saga, if a ball was to hit your face at that distance then you would be sparkled & prostrate

  17. TD

     

     

    I was in primary in the 70s. Each class had their milk in an orange crate/bucket thing. And the milk was in cardboard pyramid containers. Great if you got it early and cold. Bowfin’ if it had warmed up!

     

     

    Jotters that on the back had earnings about banana skins potential for slipping and policemen’s trustworthiness in you were in a wee moment of concern.

     

     

    Scary to fast fwd to today to how savvy my naive 10 y/o is compared to me. Knows the MSM arent to be trusted, realises why we’re paranoid and thinks Dalziel should be sponsored by Bawbag undies company!

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  18. I presumed it was Option B Richie.

     

    Though if it got ramped up to culpable homicide it wouldn’t surprise me this week.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  19. thomthethim for Oscar OK on

    tonydonnelly67

     

     

    11:43 on 22 April, 2015

     

    jamesgang

     

    Only thing I liked at school, was taking the milk round to all the classes, great wee dodge :))

     

    Anyone remember the teachers smoking in the classroom?

     

    Imagine that now, lol.

     

     

    ******

     

    Yea,and what was worse, we had one who used to cadge one off me!

     

    Teachers? Miserable sods!!

  20. Richie #TeamOscarForever on

    Well in that case it should have been a yellow. The guy got to the ball BEFORE Craig took him out….and he missed the target.

  21. I never thought that sending Liam Henderson on loan at this point in the season was a good idea,he would certainly have come on once Craig Gordon was sent off on Sunday.Liam and Leigh Griffiths are the only two players who have made any difference coming off the bench this seaon.Celtic are not playing well at this moment and if they need something tonight I cant really see it coming from Scepovic,Tonev or McGregor.It might have been a good decision for the player but not for the team.

  22. Richie,

     

     

     

    Someone else mentioned that the other day but imo the ict guy got the slightest of nudges with the outside of his right boot to put it past Gordon.

     

     

    This wasn’t his shot and I think he’d easily got on the end of it.

     

     

    I was beilin at the time but the decision was correct if I’m honest

     

     

    HH

  23. Brogan Rogan:

     

     

    Please correct me if I’m wrong because like a lot of others I don’t speak ‘lawyer speak’ and I am totally confused as to the status of Resolution 12. So am I correct in thinking/saying that the Celtic PLC are not actively working on Resolution 12, in fact, Celtic PLC has hung Resolution 12 in the ‘limbo for a very long stay, possibly forever’ closet, because for just whatever reason?

     

     

    Was this a result of the Resolution 12 being withdrawn and by withdrawing it was that – in company law – the end of it?

     

     

    In withdrawing Resolution 12 did that kill it as far as the ‘PLC’ was concerned (legally) or is Resolution 12 a Timmy zombie?

     

     

    Was Resolution 12 raised again at a following AGM and brought out of ‘limbo’?

     

     

    Is it just a collective of individuals, who are shareholders, acting as the original group of signatories to the resolution as a whole/ or a select few of the original signatories who are pursuing the aims of the withdrawn Resolution 12:

     

     

    (1) In conjunction with Celtic PLC

     

    (2) Not in conjunction with Celtic PLC

     

    (3) Not in conjunction with Celtic PLC but with the covert assistance and guidance of Celtic PLC

     

    (4) Not in conjunction with Celtic PLC but the board reserve the right to be sleekit and Machiavellian whilst others do all the digging at their expense.

     

    (5) Not in conjunction with Celtic PLC and explicitly against the wishes of Celtic PLC.

     

     

    The Boards Response to Res 12:

     

     

    The Board is committed to protecting and promoting the interests of the Company, having regard to, among other things, the principles of fairness and sporting integrity.

     

     

    Having regard to those interests and principles, the Board monitored the developing situation at Rangers Football Club carefully. The Company maintained a consistent position that the circumstances should be considered by the football authorities and the matter dealt with fairly and proportionately. This position was made clear to the football authorities, including the Scottish FA.

     

     

    The Company received assurances from the Scottish FA regarding the Club Licensing process for Season 2011/12 at the time. The Board considers that it took appropriate steps to protect the interests of the Company.

     

     

    The Board will continue to take steps to protect and promote the interests of the Company. The Company participated in the restructuring of Scottish football and will continue to monitor the development and effectiveness of governance systems.

     

     

    The Board remains committed to a strategy that promotes and protects the interests of the Company and does not rely on any other club. That stand alone strategy has been successful, as demonstrated by the robust results for the year to June 2013 and encouraging start to the current year.

     

     

    In the circumstances the Board considers the resolution to be unnecessary and recommends that you vote against it.

     

     

    The Celtic Trusts response:

     

     

    Proposal 12 was withdrawn by the proposers, who were not the Celtic Trust, as some out there appear to think. We supported the motion and allowed the proposers to use our experience and expertise to bring it to the table but – we were as surprised as most – of those present when it was withdrawn. It would appear that a deal had been struck to refer this matter to another time and place. We will await further developments but not whilst holding our breath.

     

     

    I think Celtic Supporters, whether they are shareholders or not, whether they are season ticket holders or not, should be allowed to ask valid questions about their own concerns for the future wellbeing of their club and never, ever, talked down to, or be taken for granted, by the PLC, or any agent of the PLC,.

     

     

    That would be conducive of the Celtic way.

  24. Richie

     

    GM

     

     

    I too thought the Craig Gordon decision was correct.

     

    The ref’s demeanour towards him was noticeably more empathetic than that shown to other celtic players.

     

    I don’t think he’d have had that wee apologetic shrug had he been showing broonie a red.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  25. Just watching out my window at the school across the road from me, gym/PT teacher what ever you call them, has the kids playing Baseball,

     

    We don’t play Baseball here, it’s not an exercise sport as I can tell most are standing around doing nothing. Total waste of time, and they are not even playing it right.

     

    Schools? Some things never change.

  26. CHEATED

     

     

    Afternoon, is the game on the box tonight? I finish at five and have to get the grass cut tonight or I’m deid and I won’t be coming back…!

     

     

    Ayrshire is Green and White

  27. tonydonnelly67

     

     

    12:14 on 22 April, 2015

     

     

    Just watching out my window at the school across the road from me, gym/PT teacher what ever you call them, has the kids playing Baseball,

     

    We don’t play Baseball here, it’s not an exercise sport as I can tell most are standing around doing nothing. Total waste of time, and they are not even playing it right.

     

    Schools? Some things never change.

     

    ₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩₩

     

    Get over there and show them coach..!

     

     

    HH