Omission bias research and refs with grudges

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The SFA Head of Refereeing, John Fleming, spoke about the semi-final incident on Sunday, largely to protect his fraternity.  Referee Steven McLean made a huge error but Fleming said “I don’t think there was anyone in the ground who would have thought it was 100% a penalty and sending off until they had seen the replay.”

This flies in the face of the Celtic players who claimed for a penalty on the spot, the raised voices from thousands of Celtic supporters, and the shout from the TV commentator.  Fleming’s assertion is demonstrably untrue.

He is a man in a position of authority at the SFA.  He is allowed to have opinions, or to disagree with any club, but making untrue statements to protect his referees is a wholly inappropriate.  If is the standard referees are held to, no wonder we have problems.  Having asked for clarification on the refereeing error yesterday, I expect Celtic will be even keener on an explanation for Fleming’s incredulous comment.

I’ve linked here to a Stanford University report on Omission Bias in Sports.  The report finds that people are biased to favour inaction (i.e. don’t make a decision) over action (make a decision which will have a profound impact).

It’s an interesting concept which good refereeing guidance will account for.  They found that “For all sports, effect [is]stronger if game is close and weak when score is lopsided”.

Omission bias is what we should be looking for in Scottish football.  Evidence this video of former referee Kenny Clark, who while still officiating SPL games told an audience that he held a grudge against Celtic’s John Hartson and failed to award him a foul which he saw clearly enough to describe in some detail.

Unfortunately, no journalist has ever been able to contact Mr Clark to ask him about his grudges or omission bias.  If this was England, the media would not allow Clark to flaunt omission bias while defending it in others, he would be called to account.

See above, Sunday’s officials greeting each other on the pitch before kick off.  Before the dust settles on this one, some of us better learn a new handshake.  Those wanting real change at the SFA will have to fight for it.

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  1. Cowiebhoy,

     

     

    met a guy in cowie on saturday morning…acky hammill…what a man!!!! some stories about stopping the orange walk through cowie early 80’s!!!!!

  2. And this absolute claptrap from Richard Wilson in his BBC column

     

     

    “Mistakes, misjudgements, poor form are all ultimately part of the game’s appeal, because they influence matches, just like a moment of skill or awareness, or tactical and selection decisions made by managers. Infallibility would rob the game of some of its uncertainty”

     

     

    Which compares mistakes players and managers make with mistakes referees make as somehow part of the same thing and somehow part of the rich tapestry of football. Translate this in the real world and it becomes acceptable for refs to continually screw up or even cheat because its part of the game. Arent the bloody refs responsible for upholding the rules?

     

     

    This is becoming more and more bizarre. My god they really have lost it in their attempts to justify this cheating.

  3. Adrian Durham

     

    ‘Celtic think they are so big that they had a divine right to get to the Scottish Cup final… they need taking down a peg or two’

     

    ‘Celtic striker Leigh Griffiths complained: ‘We were robbed.’ The whole of football is laughing in his face! Imagine how Rangers fans felt when the authorities banished their club to the brink of non-league football. Now that’s being robbed’

     

     

    There is only one thick arrogant c*** here pal.

  4. They’re just taking McLean out of the limelight for the weekend.

     

    As for Muir’s view being obstructed he was almost a yard on the pitch following the action.

  5. Dontbrattbakkinanger on

    Wee Giant Haystacks birthweight was 14 lb 6oz [ouch!]

     

     

    At his heaviest he weighed 48 stone, and he was 6’11” tall

     

     

    He was only 52 when he died.

     

     

    His family were from Co Mayo.

  6. Omission bias is exactly what it is, they fail to make important decisions at key times that seriously effect the outcome of tight games, for fear of becoming the story. If a team is winning 5-0 then that penalty is much easier to give. That’s what I think happened in the semi-final, everyone saw the handball but chose not to give it, as it was early in the contest and would have killed the game stone dead. spineless ref, rank rotten cover up going on now with utter nonsense being spouted in the media.

     

     

    Hail Hail.

  7. Paul, the main thing I notice in the “handshake photo” is that all the gentlemen pictured therein look like clones. Or are they just inbred?

     

     

    As for bias, conspiracies, or whatever… I don’t think it is any of those. I personally suspect that it may be part of the sponsorship with Specsavers. I’ll be looking out for replays of the incident in the adverts before the “feature presentation” on future visits to the cinema, with Steven McLean and chums playing the key roles in the “Should’ve gone to Specsavers” ads.

  8. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Ya numpty. Ye’ve gone and let Griffiths score. I told ye tae stick to him.

     

    I’m sorry boss. It was like there was three of him. He seemed to be everywhere.

  9. I think we should boycott games at Hampden including finals. Why pay masons to cheat us? Let their showpiece games be televised with empty stadiums, as well as hitting them directly in the pocket sponsors wont be happy.

  10. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    STIRLINGBHOY

     

     

    Minor jest,bud. Yer in good company in that neck of the woods.

     

     

    Stay away from OLDTIM,unless you have a liver to spare.

  11. the long wait is over on

    On the handshakers:-

     

     

    Steven Mclean , the refs, brother :-

     

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_McLean.

     

     

     

    Alan Muir’s father was a grade one referee.

     

    I was told a story in good faith , but cant independently speak to it, that the younger Mr. Muir , while in his local bowling club was seen to jump up in excitement at a goal scored by his favourite team ( See if you can guess who that was – here’s a clue – it’s not Celtic) to be quietly told by his father to sit back down. Pronto. Could be utter rubbish of course…

  12. Are there now or have three been any grade 1 officials in Scotland who are Catholic or have a previous allegiance or connection to Celtic?

     

     

    I have not heard of any. I have however heard of plenty who have connections with Sevco/newco. Valid question folks, I genuinely don’t know.

  13. glendalystonsils on

    McLean will be back refereeing one of our games soon…………with revenge in his heart.

  14. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    Neganon2

     

    I read that piece by Wilson. Truly awful.

     

    Basically wrong decisions are good because they make the game unpredictable.

     

    Maybe we could have other things to help with that:

     

    Dogs running on the pitch, going for the ball. Somebody shouting “next goal’s the winner”. Somebody’s pal turning up after kick-off and getting a game with the team that’s behind.

     

    Heaven forbid we might expect some decent refereeing in the professional game. Nah, let’s just have more unpredictability.

  15. South Of Tunis on

    jamesgang @ 12 58.

     

     

    Best Jamaican thing I’ve read recently –

     

     

    A Brief History of Seven Killings – Marlon James .A mighty fine novel.

     

     

    Memories of 3 Jamaican brothers in London- Attlee, Winston and Wesley.

  16. stirlingbhoy

     

     

    14:02 on 21 April, 2015

     

    Bobby,

     

     

    back in Braeheid m8….(Stirling that is!)……

     

     

    ——–

     

     

    You’re okay pal.

     

    Not sure knows what a shopping centre is! So no danger of confusion.

     

     

    ;-)

     

     

    HH jamesgang

  17. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    THETIMREAPER

     

     

    Collum taught Religious Education at a Catholic secondary in Lanarkshire. Don’t think he bothers now,the money is better as a referee,and he was worried about people shiting in his piece-box.

  18. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    Reading-on here-the articles in the MSM,it seems that wagons are being circled.

     

     

    That surprises me,tbh,as I thought there would have been little comment,let it die a death,go away.

     

     

    Heads being poked above the parapets at least gives us a target to aim for. As an example,Durham got a legover once from a hunnetta wi a guide dog and a white stick,and has repaid his gratitude ever since,English is simply trying to get in wi the in-crowd as he looks long-term in a terminal industry

     

     

    Spires,on the other hand,is a major disappointment. I really thought he was better than that. His article looks like it was ghost-written by Hugh Taylor.

  19. Steinreignedsupreme on

    Frank McAvennie would have done a Maurice Johnson at the drop of Bill McMurdo’s bowler hat – had scruffy asked him to so it first.

  20. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    STEINREIGNEDSUPREME

     

     

    Don’t doubt it,mate. Hence why he is rarely lauded on here or elsewhere.

  21. Neganon2 & GlassTwoThirdsFull

     

     

    They will soon forget about the excitement of uncertainty the next time Celtic benefit from a dodgy call a la the Guidetti penalty against Hearts. How long did we hear about that one for?

     

     

    They have no shame.

  22. Collum must have been a selected to make the equality and diversity stats look better.

  23. bournesouprecipe on

    BMCUW

     

     

    Wee John Collins climbed the marble staircase to the blue room. ” both deals were very similar – so I decided to sign for Celtic”

  24. thetimreaper

     

     

     

     

    14:07 on

     

     

    21 April, 2015

     

     

     

     

    Are there now or have three been any grade 1 officials in Scotland who are Catholic or have a previous allegiance or connection to Celtic?

     

     

    I have not heard of any. I have however heard of plenty who have connections with Sevco/newco. Valid question folks, I genuinely don’t know.

     

    ——————————–

     

     

    Steve Conroy of the Marc Antoine Fortune goal disallowing against the deid team infamy…

  25. Occasionally caught McAvennie on SSB (try not to listen, catch the odd 5 minutes here and there). He is the worse pundit in history. That way you get embarrassed and cringe listening to him.

  26. Steinreignedsupreme on

    BOBBY MURDOCH’S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS 14:17 on 21 April, 2015

     

     

    It is painful to listen to him speak. I can’t stand him.

  27. GlassTwoThirdsFull on

    BMCUW

     

    Spiers is in a world of his own. Thinks Sevco will be champs in two years. Says it all.

     

    The only thing missing was – “I really like Steven McLean. Seems like a pretty decent bloke to me”.

  28. SoT

     

     

    Thanks mhate. I’m going back and fore between contemporary jamaican stuff and 18th and 19th C histories.

     

     

    Check out Thomas Thistlewood’s diaries if you will. Like reading about an SS camp commander but with the veneer of gardens and respectability. The casual nature of his accounts of rape and torture turn you blood cold.

     

     

    HH jamesgang

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