Penalty competitions are not decided by random luck. Teams from higher divisions win against lower division opponents more often than the reverse, by 8 percentage points. That advantage pales into insignificance compared to the benefits of going first in a penalty competition.
A 2010 study published in the American Economic Review found a systemic first-mover advantage. Teams going first in a penalty competition won on 60% of occasions. The study found players had more success taking a kick that would put them into the lead, than when they were merely drawing level.
The difference was most pronounced comparing a kick to win a competition, which had a 92% conversion rate, with a kick to avoid defeat, which was successful on 62% of occasions. This is a manifestation of Loss Aversion. The fear of losing something hugely impacts our behaviour, far more than the prospect of winning does. I could get distracted here and say the fear of losing 10-in-a-row took hold at Celtic Park, at the cost of where heads should have been.
Another 2010 study examined Emotional Contagion and penalty competitions. Players who celebrated after their kick were more likely to be on the winning side than those who quietly returned to the centre circle. Specifically, a player who immediately follows an opponent that celebrates extravagantly is more likely to miss than when this factor is controlled for.
This study’s conclusion is quite fascinating, “that emotional contagion is an important process in the context of elite sport performance.” From all these years writing and reading CQN, I could suggest that emotional contagion works in all aspects of life. It is a real thing that has an impact on those around us.
A 2012 article in Economic Inquiry promoted a tweak to penalty competitions. Instead of Team A always kicking ahead of Team B, it suggested Team A – Team B, then Team B – Team A, or ABBA, not ABAB. The ABBA system has been trialed and proven to eliminate the first-mover advantage, however, various authorities have thought it too confusing for fans!
Practice is a whole other area, one that was rejected on these shores for many years. The challenge here is that the problem for an elite professional is not to kick a ball 12 yards, but to do so in acute circumstances that are impossible to replicated on the training field.
A 2010 study out of University of Plymouth found that practice through Functional Imagery Training was found to improve penalty kick outcomes (other types of practice, which were used as a control, did not). So practice, but only if you know how to practice.
I also read a study that found if you are facing your own fans you are more likely to win a penalty competition, but I can’t find it……
We put a lot of work into finding advantages at Celtic. Improving penalty outcomes is one of the clearest benefits we can achieve. It is a bit too late for others.
743 Comments- Pages:
- «
- 1
- ...
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- ...
- 20
- »
Drew1967- Ah Mick no a bad player. 😂
D :)
“Give the Ball to Michael!”
Spurs BC CSC
Bankiebhoy1- That’s the 1.
D :)
Minis will never have a better chance of winning cup .
Strange how many players are wearing long sleeve jerseys. Pro cyclists used to do it on rest days during the big tours to cover up the needle bruises from the blood transfusions 🤨
DAVID66
Think Micks in Oz now
Bassey is a good defender, strong as an ox. He’s also not very good with the ball at his feet and time to think. That’s the difference between him and the guys we’ve sold for big money. One good cross in a half of football after a number of wasted passes and bad touches does not impress any club with plans for ball playing footballers.
I remember that’s all his da’ would say…………….ever, while puffing on a large see-garrrrr………..
In high dudgeon I would often hog the ba’ a tad too long to spite him and then get completely cleaned out by some hairy-legged neanderthal…………….
:)
Anyone else think Simms is either injured or has his mortgage on Sevco – not the big bruiser we’ve seen all season
Hearts a man down with him
HT 1-0 Sunderland.
Spectacular goal in 12 minutes although the keeper should have stopped it.
0-0 at HT at mini vs Maxi Huns. Dreadful watch. Giving up on it and switching to Sunderland game.
I see the execrable Button is on Shortie……………………
Just as Kalvin is bein’ boosted by scoddland’s finest – remember how Shortie couldn’t mention that ned’s name without pre-fixin’ it * cough* wi’ nine mullyin…………………..???
Oh aye.
Simms is excellent in the air, but not much else. He hit post early on. Huns had two good chances with headers, one a sitter. Needs to go deep, without goal, for Hearts to win. That said, it’s not exactly domination by huns. They’ve just more quality players, plus the likes of Arfield and Balogun who are mince.
Lorraine Kelly wanted no Catholic schools in Scotland…..
JINKYREDSTAR
I’m not watching in but thought simms and McKay would have caused orcs big problems today.
Gio 45 mins from the sack?
Think I’ll check in on Femenino Barca vs Lyon CL final in 2 hours. Certain to be more skill on display than at Hampdump. Players are also a lot better looking.
Had another look at the Sunderland goal. The goalie looked at fault, but that shot was swerving and like an Exocet missile.
BOGNORBHOY on 21ST MAY 2022 2:50 PM
STEPHBHOY67
That post won’t last the day
😋
—-
…..and neither should it. I’m no fan of Lorraine and her ‘homespun’ views on most things. Of course posters can register their displeasure – but why must we always have bile, and on this occasion the “c” word?
Hard to fathom!
Switched off commentary at Hampdump when commentator said, “The big hitters would not only be looking at Bassey, but every player in a Rangers jersey!” Deludamol overload.
I’ll stick to Wembley and check back only if mini-Huns prevail.
Commentator just said Tavernier is a weapon up the other end 😆
Wycombe pressing really hard.
INIQUITOUSIV
It was so close to keeper he didn’t even have to dive. From a standing position, at the last second he raised his left arm and the ball went in off his forearm, so I think it did swerve.
Sunderland header by Ross Stewart just misses. Read a rumour that Orcs were after him.
Sunderland draw huge crowds. Really surprising they have languished in Div 2 for so long.
TOM MCLAUGHLIN
I agree. ESPN showed it from various angles and in slow motion and it changed direction at the last microsecond.
It would be sweet if Hampdump game went to ET then pens and Hertz won it. I’d be laughing all summer.
Welsh international Vokes misses chance for Wycombe.
End to end stuff at Wembley.
Yes thats a core belief of Kelly the Arab, blame it on schools, schools which do not teach bigotry or hatred,ignore things like the person’s family, upbringing, peers and social mixing, very convenient that she does that and has very likely helped her go far in her career.
INIQUITOUSIV
They’re in Div 1
Iniquitousiv
Don’t know if my aching sides could cope with that.
Ach course they could.
Please let ìt be CSC
Sevco fans just said goodbye to Diallo, coming off in his last gane, by booing him.
Not reported by commentary team.
Sevilla have won the Europa League six times since 2006. Six times No one claiming that they are the world’s most brilliant club. Ever. Funny, eh?
Earlier I said Sunderland were in League 2. Fact failure. They are of course in League 1, fighting to get into the Championship.
GENE.
Thanks! I think we were typing at the same time.
LEFTCLICKTIC on 21ST MAY 2022 4:21 PM
Iniquitousiv
Don’t know if my aching sides could cope with that.
Ach course they could.
Please let ìt be CSC
——
I’d like them beat in the 90 mins😂🤣
Sevco still to get their pen.