It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Craig Whyte would not have expected Champions League football when he worked on the deal to buy Rangers last spring, but, by his own admission, income from the Europa League group stage was in the budget.
Winning the league came as a surprise late in the process and may have fuelled some summer transfer bids but income was about to fall well below expectations. Ally McCoist won only one game in four cup competitions, against Arbroath, season ticket sales didn’t bounce and with no serious income streams open, Rangers were set for a seriously low income season.
In addition, the injury to Steven Naismith robbed Rangers of what I understand would have been a £5m sale in January.
People have tried to assert that Whyte’s plan for Rangers was to liquidate the company all along, this is clearly not the case. Rangers were moribund while the First Tier Tribunal (FTT) was yet to report but Whyte planned to run the company, without reverting to administration until and perhaps beyond then.
As well as having to deal with the income shocks resulting from multiple on-field failures, Rangers were hit with an expenditure shock. The FTT was delayed from November to January. If it had proceeded as planned in November it would have reported in January. The delay was crucial, Rangers were going to spend a lot more money before the verdict was announced.
If the verdict arrived as expected in January, and Rangers won, it was game on. They would have been in a position to borrow like any other club and could have raised fresh share capital. There would have been no administration. This was the preferred outcome, Whyte would have emerged with his reputation intact and with a valuable football franchise for the outlay of exactly £1.
If they lost, Whyte could have presented a fait-accompli to the world.
He could have explained to the Rangers support that the total tax liability was “likely to be around £75m” and that there was no point putting fresh investment into a black hole, which was inevitably going to lead to liquidation – all for misdemeanours that occurred before his time. The support would have been distressed at the death of their history, but, crucially, they would not have blamed Whyte, whose reputation would still be intact.
He would immediately have applied for the 10 day grace period to consider appointing an administrator and used that time to tell the SPL and SFA that he could re-emerge with Newco FC within days and allow the league programme to complete as normal. He had security over the stadium, would be in a position to re-employ the players and would be able to honour financial commitments to other clubs, while securing the television and sponsorship contracts.
Public sympathy would have been behind him, Sir David Murray would have carried the blame (perhaps correctly) and I believe only Celtic would have voted against him. Newco would have been back in the SPL and, if the Daily Record’s reporting of Whyte’s thoughts on penalties are anything to go by, he expected to be docked a comfortable 25 points.
HMRC forcing Rangers into administration this month created enormous problems. Administrators Duff and Phelps are now in control and opened the club’s finances up to scrutiny.
As soon as it became evident that he securitised season ticket money from future years, three days after buying the club, placing the money into his own bank account, not that of the football club, Craig Whyte’s methods were subject to derision and outright disgust from many angles, most importantly from the Rangers support.
As things stand, Whyte cannot slip away. He has to stand with Ticketus, who will hold a security on Ibrox through one of Whyte’s companies, and he stands to gain an enormous amount of money for a year’s hard work. Ticketus are also in for the long haul, they have coughed up over £20m and will need a sizeable commercial return.
Many observers have noted that this has not progressed as a normal administration. It’s not a normal administration. The secured creditors (Craig Whyte and Ticketus) need to sell a lot of tickets beyond administration, either as Rangers, if they are successful in the FTT, or as Newco, if they lose the FTT. Selling a lot of tickets is a really tough challenge right now and will be made considerably more difficult if there are swingeing cuts made to the club staff and infrastructure now. Their interests are considerably best served by keeping Rangers as buoyant as possible.
Even if they manage to feed enough cash to the administrators to keep Rangers playing football until the verdict is delivered, the opportunity to present the league with a fait-accompli has gone. Everyone expects Rangers to fold and will have been busy working on a contingency plan.
Any goodwill that Whyte hoped to harvest has also gone, he is seen as a pariah, without friends within the game, in the political world, the media or the Rangers support. When he looks to build a consensus, there will be no advocates for his position. Quite the opposite, people want rid of him.
The on-going police enquiry and his interesting relationships with the Insolvency Service and HMRC will only cloud matters further. For all the bluster on these subjects, no one has been able to explain to me any illegal activities, in fact, most of the illegal activity he has been accused of are either perfectly legal or simply did not take place as described, but there is enough potential in this mix for many years of civil legal challenge, if not more serious issues.
Whyte and Ticketus now have decisions to make on how much extra skin to invest. Ticketus are in the game for a lot of money already and will be keen to protect their cash. It remains to be seen how much cash Whyte has in the client account at Collyer Bristow, but it’s clear that between them, Ticketus and Whyte were prepared to guarantee the administrators full wages and costs for the club for February.
The fact that the tap has been turned on 100% for the last two weeks suggests they have enough cash to run at a lower percentage for a while yet. Duff and Phelps will know how much money is available and will have an expected date for the verdict. It would be enormously bad judgement if they exhausted cash reserves before the verdict arrived.
As long as Ticketus investors hold their nerve, and the police don’t spike the process, Rangers will survive until the verdict. If they lose the verdict, and all expectations are that they will, what are we looking at?
As I said above, Whyte’s chance of presenting a fait-accompli has gone. He would need to go for a prepack liquidation but there are likely to be legal challenges to him making off with the assets of Rangers. At best, this would delay him for anything between weeks and years. Any police involvement would make matters even more difficult. If a negative verdict is delivered anytime soon, Rangers will cease.
Even if this happens, Whyte will still owe Ticketus a lot of money and will try to phoenix as a Newco. He will have the stadium and will be in pole position to apply for membership to the SPL or Scottish Football League.
A route back into the SPL in these circumstances would be difficult to achieve. The SPL board have the authority to accept a club into the league but I hear it is likely that, due to the importance of the matter, they would refer the decision to a vote of the entire league. Back in October I thought the fait-accompli was certain to be voted into the SPL, now I can’t see a Newco being voted in.
You would expect an application into the Scottish Football League to be accepted but there may be a rival bid. The ‘Blue Knights’ bid would not include Ibrox but have a number of options. They could ask to rent Hampden or Firhill, or could adopt a struggling lower league club, like Clyde. These notions are likely to be progressed but establishing a new club, without players or a stadium, would be an enormous challenge.
All of this would play out against a great deal of uncertainty. Whyte’s ability to sell tickets to Rangers fans must be in doubt. If a rival club wanted back into Ibrox in the future they would need to give the ultimate floating charge holder – Ticketus – the same kind of return Whyte has committed to. There is also the possibility of a lot more to come out about the old regime at Rangers, some of whom are behind the Blue Knights bid.
Even if someone gets a phoenix off the ground at Ibrox, keeping it alive will be difficult. The cost of running football games there every second week is considerable. Doing so, while repaying Ticketus, and competing against lower league (or SPL) opposition, will cut any football budget to levels not known in 30 years.
For now, everyone connected with Rangers needs to make confident noises but even if they die, their ghost is already in enormous peril.
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I see Kojo is blocking up the blog again. I usually just scroll past.
If anyone has been offended or gets annoyed I suggest you do the same. Kojo has his own style and agenda and it doesn’t suit everyone.
LB
Magnificentseven on 1 March, 2012 at 15:34 said:
Kojo
We have all had that problem at one time…..I don’t even get asked the question….my name is a dead giveaway
but no need to descend to their level…. we are better than that
share
=======
I think you’re wrong. Kojo is not better than that.
A period of silence on your part would be most welcome.
My dear,dear,dear,friend.. Aipple.
Pal..
Ah like Ye aloater Tae!
Look, You know Ma Character.. Too well.. pal..
by this time.
Ah am wan o they Alpha Dugs.. ye hear aboot..
and Ah canny jist be anither Subdued Member o the Pack.
That is the way Ah am Made..
Kojo
yer pal..who likes ye aloater
‘crushed nuts?’ ‘Naw, Layringitis!’ – a win at the FTT would be a hollow victory as our hero has ensured they will be parlous at best via Ticketus. In fact I do not see a viable business even with an FTT win. Liquidation is the only show in town.
I see CQN’S resident attention seeker is at it again,,,do what i do Ghuy’s and scroll past his post’s!!!
Hail hail
Over two weeks ago I e-mailed my SNP MSP regarding Salmond’s comments about the importance of the huns to Scotland. I had given up on a reply – but have just received one.
Basically he says it would be inappropriate for him to comment on something the First Minister said so he has passed the comments on. Interesting – wonder if I will get a reply from Salmond’s office?
I had a conversation with a decent supporter of the darkside a few days ago.
He asked me what were my thoughts on all the shenanigans at ibrokes ?
He wanted a Celtic supporters perspective.
The first thing i said was that if Celtic were ever in the same situation….i know,i know…the supporters would have organised themselves long before now and would be driving the bus to an escape route.
Told him we could see this coming but they couldn’t or didn’t want to accept the fact that the mighty rangers would falter!
He humbly agreed and is genuinely shaken to the core.
I do have a modicum of sympathy for him…for the bigots,liars and cheats…let them burn!
What do y’all think of this?
http://www.snspix.com/6153219/print/6153219.html
01/03/12
IBROX – GLASGOW
An employee from a paper-shredding company takes a trolley load from Ibrox
Hi Delia
About sharing the resources to make a better or more competitive Scottish league,
IMO the Scottish game has quite a few issues. The product is flawed, too many teams for starters sharing too few fans.
I would probably consider sharing domestic home gates
As long as the European riches such as the CL money were spread out equally too.
As long as seeding of European tournaments was banned
Now we probably both know that it will be a rainy day in hell when that happens, and until then – I can’t see a lot of benefit in diluting our domestic income much further than it already is, while still receiving less income than euro competitor teams simply because their population is bigger than ours, with no sporting reason involved.
I guess what I’m trying to say is, I would share our domestic income more generously if the we received a fairer share of the European money instead
in other news…industrial paper shredding lorry arrives outside Ibrox and big pile of documents taken away (not a joke):
http://www.snspix.com/6153225/print/6153225.html
Malarkey
So ..
Ye wanna Silence Me?
Hmmmmmm..
Good tae Know.
Kojo
Kojo
I do
that’s why a live
in holland
enmac, a bampot stands shoulder to shoulder with Neil Lennon
I think that is Craig Whyte trying to escape
And in Ibrox news today. A paper shredding company van was spotted outside and men seen bringing shredders into Ibrox.
http://www.snspix.com/6153233/print/6153233.html
http://www.snspix.com/6153225/print/6153225.html
A man carrying boxes for tea and coffee for administrators was also seen.
http://www.snspix.com/6153211/print/6153211.html
(Note the ad in background)
Whatever is going on.
Mort
Not even close to a podium today and not even first with my story about the shredders.
New media moves far too quick for little old me.
Mort
I agree sorry if I came across incorrectly. CW only ever had liquidation in mind, I meant that winning the Tax Case would be hugely inconvienient to him.
The LL have continued to offer hope that Ticketus/HMRC/SPL/Establishmentwill deal sympathetically with ranjurz.
Ibleedgreenandwhite
Pal
Ah Hope everyboady takes Heed tae yer advisement.
Then..
Ah wid Be able tae Come oan here..
and No See Any Complaints aboot whit Ah hiv Jist
Written..
Great Idea, .
Ah fully endorse it!
Kojo
Still , Laughin’
My company have their shredding disposed of securely offsite. We have it done quarterly and have WAY more than that when the man in the van comes.
I would suggest there may be nothing in this other than routine office goings on.
Paul67
Sensational insight.
I am also presuming that you have impeccable sources on “what is yet to come out”.
I am very interested in the possibility that Rangers have improperly registered players with the SFA.
If that proves to be the case.
How would you expect Celtic to react?
TT
Paul67
Great article,I can understand it all that bit better,you’ll have huns jumping off bridges!
Observation.
The blog is a lesser place minus ole DBBIA,if I wanted Lent to end so I could have a bit of chocolate I most certainly can’t wait for the rollin’ of the stone to get the witty repartee of the ole doc back.
Pathetic,,,,,
Hail hail
Kojo
In times like this I turn to Bob Dylan, what would he say?
He’d say ‘don’t hate nothing but hatred’.
That said, I checked his back catalog in vain looking for a reference to the Huns. Oh well.
Well, I fin’ly started thinkin’ straight
When I run outa things to investigate
Couldn’t imagine doin’ anything else
So now I’m sittin’ home investigatin’ myself!
Hope I don’t find out anything . . . hmm, great God!
RogueLeader on 1 March, 2012 at 15:37 said:
rrrrrrrrrrrrr
I agree sorry if I came across incorrectly. CW only ever had liquidation in mind, I meant that winning the Tax Case would be hugely inconvienient to him.
The LL have continued to offer hope that Ticketus/HMRC/SPL/Establishmentwill deal sympathetically with ranjurz.
(sorry!)
on a brighter note, I’ve just resigned from my job and gave notice on my flat :)))
Moving to North-East of England. Any bhoys daft enough to pay decent wages for little effort please get in touch.
I’m looking for a job with a sky-high pay
A four day week and a two hour day
Maybe its because I am built that way
But I never did like being idle.
I reckon it’s the season ticket holders bank details they are shredding. The Orcs will find out their tickets are null and void tomorrow?
LB
jock steins celtic, yes, all incredibly complicated.
Chairbhoy, thanks.
Partizan, no problem.
Big Nan, cheers.
gorbalstam, presumably he didn’t pay tax as he didn’t have enough money.
TinyTim, I have a decent idea of what is yet to come out. I expect Celtic to be extremely insistent that appropriate retribution meets past improper registration of players.
Lennon n Mc….Mjallby, cheers.
Paul67
Its’ = It’s
swinging = swingeing
will still owes = will still owe
That’s too delicious a post to contain errors.
Partizan on 1 March, 2012 at 15:48 said:
Heh, heh, Matt McGinn if I’m not mistaken. There was a Celtic song on the flip side of that single.
My dear,dear,dear,friend. Steveo62
Glad that you understaun how Ah feel,pal.
Obviously, Past Experience,hisnae..
Soured the Attitude of Ma Critics.
Ye know the auld saying..
“Dinnae Judge How a Man Feels aboot a Particular Thing.. until
ye hiv walked o’er the Same Mile in his Slippers.”
Kojo
yer pal..who likes ye , aloater
Paul67,
As deadly as denouements go…Yours is most suitably and deliciously in extremis macabre to the max the exposition of their deserved gruesome fate to diminish and bury forever the wretched maudlin words of the dark Jabba whose morosely misleading and mawkish mitigation the resurrection rights of a zombie rankers is but fright night crypto hunnism akin to yawning churchyards and the imagined fear of contagion spilling unto the small world of Scottish football.
Let them Die.
HH
Ibleedgreenandwhite.
Pal..’
Whit Kinda Guy are you?
Ye Dinna FOLLOW YE AIN ADVICE!!
Hmmmmm
Kojo
Some people dont deserve to be on this site!!!
Hail hail
Gorbalstam
Was it the Bhoys From Lisbon?
Line in it “and his trophies numbered 6”
I can think of League, league cup, Scottish cup, Glasgow cup and The Big Cup.
Only assume the sixth was the reserve league.
Enough about them…. whats the injury situation after the internationals? hows Broonies groin…….. oops that doesn’t sound right..
My dear,dear,dear,friend..Aipple.
Ah Like Boab Dylan..
and whit you said..he said.. is a Truism.
But, where diz it say.. that
It only refers tae PAPES and No tae the ITHERS?
Think aboot it,pal.
Kojo
yer pal who thinks ye ur a Brave Fellow.
Is it possible to buy up or register names that NewCo may want to assume thus leaving the choice limited??
Indeed indeed
some of the sanctimoniuos drivel that’s written here would drive je to the drink
probably get accused of being a hun
again