Recency bias: Reo, Paulo, Newco

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Recency bias is powerful.  We remember and place more emphasis on things which happened most recently compared to things which happened before that.  The time period between the recent event and what went before is not important.

Play poorly for 75 minutes and end the game with a strong 15 minutes and, if you have poor perspective, your mind will put more weight on the closing 15 minutes.  Newco fans and their manager clearly suffer from poor perspective with respect to recency bias.

Repeatedly against Celtic this season they performed poorly for the majority of the game, but post-match found comfort that their best period came late on.  This happened again after the Scottish Cup Final, despite losing to a 90th minute winner.  Let them swim in irrelevant consolation all summer.

I am a bit concerned about our own recency bias.  Reo Hatate had a poor final.  Everyone around me at Hampden was asking the same question, ‘When will he replace Reo?’.  The only surprise was it took until the 78th minute until Paulo Bernardo came on and transformed the outcome.

The recency bias part of your brain will be telling you: Reo – poor, Paulo – good.  The memory of where we were when Reo was injured and the midfield was so dysfunctional is well buried by soothing recency.

I don’t know what was wrong with Reo on Saturday, or even his last time out against Newco, when he also underperformed, but when he returned to fitness he transform Celtic and was crucial in our run to the title.  Don’t let a touch of recency bias fool you into thinking otherwise.

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  1. Butland, feel a minute bit of sympathy for the guy as you would need to be Lev Yashin with that defence in front of him, think about it !

     

    Best sports journo for years was John Rafferty, late of The Scotsman.

     

     

    MOR, he’s a deep thinker and with his views, he may ask himself, if he’s be as happy anywhere else, money aside, but what’s money if you are not loved and happy

     

     

    KINGLuBO

  2. SFTB

     

     

    Totally agree with you comment’s about Huns having injuries because they buy players with histories and get them on the cheap

     

     

    See this morning they are linked with Adam Traore

     

     

    I thought wit that guy from

     

    Wolves built like a weightlifter and fast as Fcuk

     

     

    Turns out not him but an injury prone speedster from Fernavacos ??? A man with a medical history the length of your arm .

  3. SFTB at 12.44

     

    “Phil lies somewhere in the middle”.

     

    Phil lies – fixed that for you 🤪

  4. !!BADA BING!! on 27TH MAY 2024 1:21 PM

     

    Arsenal’s prices which have gone up by 10.3 per cent compared to last season. The Gunners are now charging £1,073 for their cheapest adult tickets next season

     

     

    Thats for new season tickets. Renewals are increasing by more like 5%.

  5. Enjoy your Summer everyone. Try not to get too twisted up about singings or lack of.

  6. What is the Starz on

    Yorkbhoy

     

    Yes you could be right about Hart..

     

    Did you notice the King Billy tattoo on his left hand when he took off the gloves..

     

    That might explain why he isn’t happy here.Perhaps he’s lined up to replace Butland after they get their 20 mullion for him

  7. What is the Starz on

    Celtic40me

     

    There will be no signings until deadline day..when we will bring in a goalkeeper on loan from Darlington youth academy and a 3rd choice centre half from Legia Warsaw.

     

    Beancounters CSC

  8. Fantastic end to the season.

     

     

    Cliftonville started us off here on may 4th, and it kept on going, the 2 1 win etc.

     

     

    I’m very surprised their filthy approach in the second half particularly has escaped criticism.

     

     

    They were frankly, scum.

     

     

    I saw Taylor v angry and wondered why, he’s usually not like that. Then saw the wrestling slam by sima, who lay on Taylor with all his might.

     

     

    They could have had 2 or three off had the ref booked them properly, as he did Callum.

     

     

    Also lunsdtrum deserved red.

     

     

    We didn’t play well cos they wouldn’t let us, they let scales and c v have the ball, but when we played it into their half they kicked and pulled.

     

     

    Their manager has a lot to answer for, they reflect him. They were scum.

     

     

    Go on the hoops.

  9. carpe diem 63 on

    Scullybhoy …totally agree re that big slimy coward Ludstram …the serial loser purposefully tried to take Matt O ‘ Reilly out as a parting gift to their verminous fanbase …and not even a media mention ….i hope he is given a dose of his own medicine at his next loser destination …let’s hope karma is indeed a bitch for squeaky voiced “Lunny “🍀

  10. PeterLatchfordsBelly on

    We were rotten on Saturday, but who cares? We won playing rotten and produced the one moment of quality in the entire game. They were red rotten too but seem happy to glory in that. Exactly the mindset of losers. Lovely.

  11. Not sure Recency bias is applicable in a time period of only ninety minutesu

     

    Though Jim Sillars might share that view

     

    Or whether the Primacy bias of WBC is more relevant here, although it might be easiter to remember who the goalkeeper was, given that there is only one of them. (Jack Butland – ‘I’ll remember you oo’)

     

    As for SFTB Regency and Reformation bias, well, I dont know much about that history..

     

    No I think what we need here is more ‘Recency effect’ if only because its’ author sounds like a character Groucho might have played in a Marx Brothers movie…

     

     

    DrHermannEbbinghausCSC

  12. I watched the whole game again today

     

     

    5th time now.

     

     

    Celtic were the better team and deserved to win.

     

     

    End of.

     

     

    Our players inability to stay on their feet stopped our moves.

  13. I don’t subscribe to we were really poor during the season either.

     

     

    Some missus steps some less than best performances but so what.

     

     

    As an aside. An anyone tell me when they watched a really good cup final ?

  14. McPhail Bhoy on

    SAINT STIVS on 27TH MAY 2024 3:43 PM

     

    I watched the whole game again today

     

    5th time now.

     

    Celtic were the better team and deserved to win.

     

    End of.

     

    Our players inability to stay on their feet stopped our moves.

     

    _________________________________________________________________________________________

     

     

    That’s all very well Saint Stivs, being the better team for most of the game, scoring the only goal of the game and winning the cup, but what about the moral victory I think Clement called this correctly, that’s the League and Cup Moral Victory trophies in the bag for him, soon to be followed up by the Close Season Cup and the better pre season training championship, we haven’t a hope with that type of winning mentality!

  15. JPH on 3RD FEBRUARY 2024 2:34 PM

     

     

    Rogers out

     

     

    Please feel free to disagree

     

     

    We got a flukey goal

     

     

    Defence shite

     

     

    Forwards shite

     

     

    Hart a calamity

     

     

    No tactics

     

     

    What will the ego say

     

     

    He’ll blame everyone and everything but

     

     

    His tactics

     

     

    His continued allowance of palma to hit set pieces

     

     

    Worst of all is what he’s done to kyogo

     

     

    But the ego won’t go

     

     

    He’s greedy and doesn’t care about anything but himself

     

     

    Rogers out

     

     

    ====================

     

    I disagree,as i did at the time,have a loom at yourself

     

     

    Rogers out- yeh partying.

     

     

    ===============

     

     

    JPH on 7TH FEBRUARY 2024 9:53 PM

     

     

    The worst team since the 90,s

     

     

    Last 2 years we were fantastic

     

     

    Please can we try to get Rogers out

     

     

    Before its too late

     

     

    I agree the board are horrible

     

     

    But Rogers is the manager

     

     

    His selections

     

     

    Tactics

     

     

    Motivation

     

     

    Set pieces, attacking and defending

     

     

    Please get him out

     

    ===================÷÷=======

     

    Please tap your fingers on a desk instead of farting thro your keyboard.i hope you learn to have a little modicom of humilty when posting about Celtic and our manager espescially,the chaos which would have engulfed us had the Celtic board followed thro on your tantrum and wishes.thank god ignored,Standing ground is what it means to be Celtic.

  16. bigrailroadblues on

    Good afternoon all from the Victoria Bar. Can’t see any hun never mind a handsome one. Puzzling. 🤔

  17. bigrailroadblues on

    McPhail Bhoy

     

    The only one getting bagged is ole clementine with his p45.🤣🤣

  18. I get the feeling that something historic went down at Hampden on Saturday, something I knew we were capable of doing but it is staggering nonetheless. Final wins between the sides were tied at 7-7 prior to this match

     

     

    How do you start with the history here? We have our own personal Celtic history, the most important, and then the history books of events or the youtube clips of today.

     

     

    In my case my first memories of a scottish cup final in 1969 are happy ones, in fact I was spoiled rotten, it was Celtic 4 The then Rangers 0 . We often went round to my cousins´ on a Sunday and the living room seemed to have all the Sunday papers that Sunday with the photos of Cup Final day and then watching the goals go in on Scotsport. And of course the presentation of the trophy.

     

     

    It was different 50 years ago though, Celtic went into the hundredth final as sure favourites in my mind. I won´t ring off the names of all our players but this was in an age when it was normal to reach a semi final of the European Cup. We had won the Scottish cup against them in 1971. We had won 8 leagues in a row, I thought we were unbeatable against them, especially at a “neutral” ground. However we didn´t win it and going round to my cousins´house the next day didn´t sound like so much fun now. However that was when I saw the upbeat nature of Celtic supporters first hand becaus the first thing my big cousin was telling me when I arrived was how Billy McNeill had turned round to all the Rankers fans from on high and showed them 8 FINGERS to point out who was still top dog!! It is always a dog fight against them, although we put the football and they put the muscle.

     

     

    And the history books and videos of past finals? Too much to go into, it´s phenomenal. Celtic have a love affair with this cup, right up until you see wee Luis Palma gently holding and cuddling the cup coming down the stairs after the presentation

     

     

    However last Thursday night it was a different story, I was starting to feel nervous about the outcome as I was having to think hard of the occasions Celtic had actually played Rangers and beat them in this final and it wasn´t as often as I thought and the outcome of those games was always close , with 1973 always weighing heavily on my mind, always 1973.

     

     

    1977 and 1980 were good but scottish football was in decline and they both didn´t make up for the sickener of ´73. I ended up researching all the 14 occasions there had been a glasgow derby and it was very evenly matched. I knew this game was going to be very close and it wasn´t until the famous 90th minute…..

     

     

    History of course depends on your perspective and what in the present day we decide to label as potentially historic. For me as an Irish Scot, it was interesting that the goal came from Idah a Cork man ( Liam Miller RIP) and that there were no Irishmen or Scotsmen in the opposing team on Saturday. Like some of their previous managers, there were five Englishmen in their starting line up and only the fourth and fifth subs were Irish or scottish.This comes as no surprise as Rankers fans have openly decided to back Ingerland since the Souness revolution, but in the last five years, as a lot of Celtic fans reject all the scottish national team stuff Rankers have been trying to re-brand themselves as the scottish team as there is a vacuum there. I hope Celtic fans continue to support the national team or Ireland, especially when our lads are in the team.

     

     

    I was worried too on Friday evening when I saw that their first ever success in a Scottish Cup Final in 1894 was against us. However Celtic always come back… two lines above in the Wee Red Book I saw that we had won the cup first two years earlier in 1892, WE HAD WON THIS CUP FIRST. And then when I saw the story of the 1904 final with us two nil down to them and then we turned it around with a hat trick from the Mighty Jimmy Quinn, I started to chill.

     

     

    Media black out Saturday afternoon until one hour after the final whistle ( I was confident enough we wouldn´t need extra time ) and Bob or rather Adam´s your uncle and my ghost of Hampden 1973, thanks to this 150th final, can finally be laid to rest.

     

     

    Thank you too Paul67 for that upbeat Celtic stance

     

     

    Amen

  19. SAINT STIVS on 27TH MAY 2024 3:47 PM

     

    I don’t subscribe to we were really poor during the season either.

     

     

    Some missus steps some less than best performances but so what.

     

     

    As an aside. An anyone tell me when they watched a really good cup final ?

     

     

    =================

     

    1.Did you see the lunge by lungestrom on MoR @96min- poss red

     

     

    2.Did you see the boot in tbe stomach by Diomande on Maeda bout 92mins- poss red

     

     

    3.Kyogo should have had a penalty when Balagoon& Davies went thro the back of the wee man ib the 1st half.

     

     

    4.Did you see kyogo again with his low header hitting Davies hand,should have been a pen imo.

     

     

    B-bu-but ragers wur the better team- eh naw they wurnae.we controlled and kept much better shape.suck the tears up hunibunz

     

     

    ===========================

     

    Big Jimmy

     

    It looked mental in the Celtic end,

     

     

    It was bigJ,absolute madness and it was great to be bang in middle of it.

     

     

    Hail Hail

  20. Hello Celts,

     

    Formerly signed in as Rab Hawe and thomthethim, due to Registration problems, plus stupidity and blocking myself from the blog. Thanks to the assistance of a bribed ten year old, I have returned to a slightly modified original moniker.

     

    Have enjoyed reading back on some or the reactions to our end of season trophy fest. Congrats to both of our

     

    teams becoming worthy Champions.

     

    I was a Brendan sceptic. In fact, I just couldn’t see how we would be able or allowed to win our title, no matter who the manager was to be.

     

    Due to the underwhelming transfer business and the high profile departures, we were on the back foot from the start. One thing in our favour was the recruitment down Govan way resembled Lee Marvin’s efforts in recruiting the Dirty Dozen from the waifs, strays and vagabonds from the dregs of military life.

     

    Another unintended positive is with the signing of lads like Bernardo, et al; whoever returns next season will have the benefit of last season under their belts. A season for them to adjust to the club, the city and Scottish football.

     

    Another bump in the road was the three, two week interruptions to the season for Internationals. Six weeks when the bulk of our first team were scattered over the Globe, missing weeks of coaching when virtually every others clubs’ players stayed at home. We also had to contend with a limiting injury last.

     

    Last, but not least, we had what Bro. Beaton described as “anomalies” to contend with.

     

    All in all, I wasn’t confident of of trophies this year, which makes this past months all the sweeter.

     

    I will go as far as saying that it is up there with the best of Title wins of my 70 plus years of supporting.

  21. Weebobbycollins on

    “Kenny Miller still ragin”

     

     

    That’s funny cos it really does look like him. :-)

  22. what’s BR’s role in recruitment ?

     

    Do managers get scout reports, time with financial peeps at the club, lists?

  23. Gene at 4.48

     

    It would have been a laugh if Miller had been invited to play for Celtic legends v Dortmund 🤪

  24. celtic40me on 27th May 2024 1:16 pm

     

     

    A big thank you to Paul67 for all his efforts this season. There must have been moments when it wasnt easy for him, but he’s still been here every day with his usual intelligent, well-informed and heartfelt articles, and a home for all our nonsense.

     

     

    totally agree.

  25. Right, equally stressful and enjoyable season over with great success. As I was so grateful for the league win, my statement before the final was ‘as long as the 2 divers don’t score, I won’t get upset’. Ended up delighted.

     

     

    Interesting summer of trading awaits but probably won’t heat up for at least a month.

     

     

    Pivot to Scotland in the Euros for me.

  26. Weebobbycollins on

    Between now and the start of the Euros the only way the rags will get their clicks is by rumour and speculation re players we or the hun will be signing…I imagine, as usual, there will be a lot of utter tosh written. Remember, this is the beginning of the close-season cup and they are the favourites.

  27. Thomthethim

     

     

    Good to see you on these pages,we worked thro our problems and got there,hopefully we shall step on now,

     

    Hope all grand with you and glad Celtic worked to give us the fantastic ending to the season,

     

    Ps good wee result in the Gaa vs Tyrone also :-))

     

     

    HH

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