Scott Brown, agents and Moneyball

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Scott Brown’s injury-enforced absence from the team in recent weeks has at least taken heat of his contract situation but that will change in January, when he is back in the team and available to sign a pre-contract agreement.  Neil Lennon reports that Celtic have met Scott’s terms but have declined to meet his agent’s demand.

Agent’s often have exclusive representation agreements with players which guarantee the agent a cut of any contract signed when the agreement is active.  5% of a four or five year contract for a top-earning Celtic player could easily reach £300k, or £360k including vat.  This is a lot of money for the player to pay out of his after-tax income so what commonly happens is the agent uses his exclusive deal with the player to negotiate a pay-off from the club instead of acting for the player.  Unlike the player, a club can reclaim vat and pays before, not after tax, so the same money going to the agent costs the combined player/club less.

It’s often the case, however, that the agent’s fee paid by the club has little resemblance to the percentage the agent would get representing the player.  While a player has an exclusive deal with an agent, a buying club has three deals to agree: the selling club’s fee, the player’s wages and the agent’s fee.

Big agent fees don’t necessarily mean bad business for the buyer, as the agent may well have made a deal achievable at a purchase price which would not have been otherwise possible, but clubs are typically more reticent when it comes to paying agents to renew contracts for their existing players.  One (then) SPL chairman told me he had a flat £500 tariff for such deals.

Artur Boruc concluded his last contract with Celtic without an agent.  At the time he explained that he would need an agent if he was moving club but didn’t need one to negotiate a predetermined level on the Celtic pay structure.  This would have saved Celtic money and might have earned Artur an extra bonus.

Scott Brown is not in this situation.  If he is offered a contract of around £6m over five years, after 50% tax and 12% (?) national insurance (which Celtic and staff pay…), his take home pay from the contract will be considerably less.  5% of the contract could end up looking like 14% of take home pay after vat is added.

Celtic will also be alert to the dangers of precedent.  If a player’s ‘advisor’ can get a significant pay-day out of a contract renewal there is no incentive for the player to conclude a deal with Celtic without an advisor, indeed, there is incentive to get one involved.

I’ve no information whatsoever on what is going on with Scott’s contract but the portents don’t look promising.

A couple of years ago we spoke about the excellent Why England Lose and its predecessor, Moneyball.  Two books that sought to explain how to find value in football and baseball respectively.  The Brad Pitt movie, Moneyball, based on the events analysed in the book, is now out.  Not sure making a drama out of statistics is wise but I’ll need to check it out.

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  1. Scott Brown has been a much improved player since Neil Lennon took over as manager of the club. Brown had been playing some of his best football before being laid low with another injury.

  2. Moneyball – Aaron Sorkin scripted, which is never a bad thing. Looking forward to it.

     

     

    North Americans go way over the top with stats, largely reflecting the fact that their actual sport isn’t as exciting as it should be. However, in football we really don’t go far enough. No-one could tell you how many times a certain central midfielder played the pass that began the move that led to the goal. You know the scorer, you might just retrieve some info on what NHL fans call the first assist, but beyond that such credit is down to the viewer and the observant viewer at that. A great midfielder or full back will often be obvious, but what if that incisive pass or crucial interception occurs early in the build up… it’s rather too easy for the credit to be lost, and more importantly for coaches/national teams, it’s too easy to miss important contributions.

     

     

    So, statistically speaking you can assess a footballer by the number of goals scored, games played (inc wins) and maybe assists or clean sheets. Pass % is an occasional stat, and yards run pops up on some broadcasts. Nothing consistent, and so it’s hard to make comparisons.

     

    Wouldn’t it be helpful to know how many times we conceded a decisive goal whilst a certain player is on the park versus another – of course we can observe this, often relatively reliably, but once perception of a player takes over sometimes the facts are lost. And the fact that no-one records these facts in football is a problem for certain players.

     

    Why was Kris Boyd not highly regarded? The only reliable stat available was his goals record, which was outstanding. We knew that he couldn’t cut it at a higher level, but arguments raged about his inclusion for Scotland (for example). Why didn’t we know how he compared to Scott McDonald in terms of game winning or tieing goals, or goals against the top half of the league. The perception, i think accurate, was that McDonald was a far more complete player, but, it was open to debate in a way that it wouldn’t have been if there was more than one number to judge the players on.

     

    No-one needs to be told that if you score 16 goals in a season and 10 of them are goal 3 in a 3-0 win it’s less valuable than a player who scores 10 equalisers out of 16 goals in a season.

     

    It’s about time we got on top of this… the sport is as complacent as the media in this respect…

     

     

    Too many other issues take up space in our sports sections…

  3. TopCorner at 12:32

     

     

    Good. We don’t need their bigoted bile at Celtic Park.

     

     

    Should we not do the same for Rangers fans knowing how strapped for cash those in power at Ibrox might be.

     

     

    Mort

  4. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    TOPCORNER 1232

     

     

    Reading the article,I got the impression that both clubs have decided not to trust Hearts to sell tickets on their behalf and then send a timely cheque.

     

     

    If so,might be interesting to see how they react to the prospects of the MBB writing an amount on the bottom of an old plimsoll.

  5. Top Corner,

     

     

    Hertz fans boycotting us????

     

     

    Perfect!

     

     

    The sooner the better as far as I am concerned. Then we dont have to put up with approx 2-300 of those scumbags infecting Paradise!

     

     

    HAIL! HAIL!

     

    Token

  6. The Battered Bunnet on

    Manish : Hi. Welcome to Sky, home of HD. You’re chatting to Manish . Can I take your name please?

     

     

    You: Hi, my name is Bunnet

     

     

    Manish : Hi Bunnet.

     

     

    Manish : How can I help today?

     

     

    You: I want a sky package with all sports channels plus espn

     

     

    Manish : Sure, you have come to the right place, let me guide you with the best package deal.

     

     

    Manish : Would you like to go for all 3 services from Sky, i.e; TV, Phone and Broadband?

     

     

    Manish : Or just TV?

     

     

    You: let’s talk tv for just now

     

     

    Manish : Let me get the best TV package.

     

     

    Manish : May I ask you a few questions to check eligibility quickly?

     

     

    You: ok

     

     

    Manish : Thank you

     

     

    Manish : Have you subscribed to Sky within the last 12 months?

     

     

    You: nope

     

     

    Manish : Is this for a house or flat?

     

     

    You: house

     

     

    Manish : Do you have an active landline at your home?

     

     

    You: yes

     

     

    Manish : Hi. Welcome to Sky, home of HD. You’re chatting to Manish . Can I take your name please?

     

     

    Manish : Sorry for that

     

     

    You: I’m guessing you’ve got a number of chats on the go at once

     

     

    You: can we pick up the pace a little?

     

     

    Manish : Thanks for answering my questions. Let me guide you further

     

     

    Manish : Yes

     

     

    Manish : Sorry

     

     

    Manish : Let’s move to Sky TV Packages

     

     

    Manish : I am afraid we do not offer just sports or movies pack without taking the basic entertainment pack of £20 or the £25 any one of the two is mandatory to add that before you choose any of the sports pack or the movies pack.

     

     

    Manish : I will recommend you to go for sky TV with basic entertainment variety pack and Style and culture pack for £20.

     

     

    Manish : The Sports 1 & 2 channels are £12.50 each or if you take the Sports Pack you would get Sky Sports 1/2/3/4 and Sky Sports News for £20 monthly.

     

     

    Manish : ESPN will cost you £9 per month

     

     

    Manish : When you go for Sky TV, You get 240 Free View Channels of all Genre, eg. Films, Music, Sports, News Etc

     

     

    Manish : Do you have a HD-ready TV? And are you interested in viewing the HD channels?

     

     

    You: I’m sorry, are you telling me that I cannot subscribe to your SPorts channels unless I subscribe to the rest of the guff?

     

     

    Manish : Yes that is correct so the total cost will come to £40 plus £9 for the espn so the total cost comes to £49 per month

     

     

    Manish : TV Entertainment pack £20(2 pack Entertainment Basic: Variety + Style & Culture)

     

     

    Manish : Sky Sports All £20 (including Sports1,2,3,4 and Sports news)

     

     

    Manish : ESPN £9

     

     

    Manish : Total cost comes to £49 per month includes all Taxes and there is no hidden cost.

     

     

    Manish : I can give you Free Sky+ box FREE (original Cost of this box is £199). Installation FREE . It’s a HD-Enabled box, So you can upgrade to HD later. This will also allow you pause and rewind live TV. It can record up to 185 hours of standard definition TV. I can offer £100 M&S vouchers FREE if you book now(Offer ends 30 November 2011).

     

     

    You: £49 per month to watch 2 games of football is hideously expensive

     

     

    Manish : I have an idea

     

     

    You: go on

     

     

    Manish : Can i transfer this chat to sky go team to watch football on to your alptop that will prove you less expensive no dish no installation .?

     

     

    You: streaming is very poor as the broadband speed is awful here

     

     

    Manish : Because that is the only way we can offer cheapest sports pack without taking the other non usefull channels for you.

     

     

    You: Doesn’t sound like Sky wants my business

     

     

    Manish : I wish i could be of a help but cannot offer the premium channels without taking the basic channels pack this is going on for last so many years as cannot help it from my end.

     

     

    Manish : Sorry

     

     

    You: so essentially your Sports subscribers are paying for content that they do not want but must purchase to get the content they do want? Sounds like you either need to get a little customer focussed, or the rest of the world needs to wake up

     

     

    You: Truly poor in this day and age

     

     

    Manish : Well due to so many response they have now introduced sky go this makes the customer to subscribe to what they want to see without entering in to any contract they can just purchase one month or two months ticket with sky go and watch just sports.

     

     

    You: which is a good idea if you have high speed broadband

     

     

    You: this line averages less than 300kbs

     

     

    Manish : Yes I understand.

     

     

    Manish : I wish sky would have heard from frontline advisors who actually speak to customers.

     

     

    You: Well, go tell them!

     

     

    Manish : Sure, will take a strong feedback of this chat and send a copy as well.

     

     

    Manish : Is there anything else that I can help you with today?

     

     

    You: Doesn’t look like it Manish

     

     

    You: Cash stays in wallet

     

     

    You: You don’t get the subscription

     

     

    You: I don’t get the service

     

     

    You: altogether pretty unsatisfactory wouldn’t you say

     

     

    Manish : I understand , I am sorry for not being able to help you today, Tied hands, I hope you understand, Bunnet?

     

     

    You: I understand that your hands are tied

     

     

    You: I also understand that Sky does not want my business

     

     

    You: too bad

     

     

    Manish : Sorry again for that.

     

     

    You: hey ho

     

     

    Manish : Is there anything else that I can help you with today?

     

     

    You: nope. I think we’re all done here.

     

     

    Manish : Thank you for your time

     

     

    Manish : Take care

     

     

    Manish : Bye

  7. Mort says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 12:36

     

     

    We should also boycott away games at hearts as it will hurt them more. We can do without their scum supporters anyway.

  8. Nuclear Bovril and a Half Munched Pie on

    Sportscene is just a very very bad show by any yardstick. Match of the Day and The Football League show have their faults but are on another planet in terms of the quality of their coverage.

     

     

    I know Shortbread don’t have a lot of cash to chuck about (Hence the ‘open all mics’ format on a Saturday, not introduced to improve coverage to to save dosh – 1 guy at each game with a mic!). They are no doubt restricted to the amount of minutes they can show of each game but , crivens…

     

     

    The actual length of the highlights is laughable consisting, on average, of the goals, a corner and a foul.

     

    Are there no decent/ entertaining/ knowledgable pundits that can improve on the usual exchange?…

     

     

    ‘Well, x will be pleased after their 1st win in 3 games’

     

    ‘Yes, Rob they will be delighted with the 3 points and will be looking to kick on now’

     

     

    And that theme tune…is it just me or is it fundamentally depressing?

  9. Neil canamalar Lennon hunskelper extrordinaire on

    bontybhoy,

     

    no, you and a few of your hun associates decided it was a stuipid question in order to avoid responding to it, it is indeed a profound question which you and your fellow huns refuse to answer as it clears all ambiguity on your allegiances.

     

    Your double talk only serves to confirm you are afraid to deal with the fundamental philosophy of the charge.

  10. Neil canamalar Lennon hunskelper extrordinaire on

    bontybhoy,

     

    more evasion, it seems to be a habit with you huns eh,

     

    if its no your taxes its avoiding your responsibilities.

  11. hankray says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 12:33

     

     

    I agree that played some good stuff last season and even this sesaon before he was injured but if it comes down to Brown or Diawara in Jan then it has to be bye bye broony

  12. The Honest Cover-up on

    I reckon the “agent fee” is a ruse by Brown and his agent to hold things up and allow him a move elswhere. The agent taking the flak takes the heat off Brown and allows him to play his football (if fit) and keep him in the shop window. If he wants to leave then fine. I’d be concerned about giving him a 4 or 5 year contract anyway. Think his physical energetic approach will mean he burns out fairly young. If he signs a pre contract elsewhere then I’d be happy for him to continue to be part of the squad. No point in cutting your nose off to spite your face.

  13. Mort

     

    BOBBY MURDOCH’S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS

     

     

    you both make similar comments there, great minds

     

     

    and i see too that the Celtic handling charge is said to be “optional” whereas the Hibbe one is “mandatory” – how does that work ? is it a case of collection from the ticket office or whatever ?

     

     

    on another note, i did the old PRINT AT HOME tickets arrangement on Saturday v St Mirren – received word from some family of intent to attend – i.e. a late decision – so, i went wthe print at home option – 1.75 total charge for the 4 tickets – bar code was not clear on my cheap printer at home so i nipped round the corner at 12noon to a laser printer shop – 80p – job done, perfect print – walk along the back of the jungle toward Kano Corner with A4 tickets in hand, with a little trepidation but sure enough, instant entry for all 4 of us, no waiting in queues at ticket office in 70mph winds and howling rain – all in all, 10 out of 10 – did what it said on the tin

     

     

    :)

  14. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    Gideon on the telly sounding ever more like Piers from The New Statesman.

     

     

    Tryng to flag a £5 pension increase as a triumph,when in actual fact,as it’s index-linked,it’s a total disaster for his spending plans.

  15. TopCorner says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 12:32

     

     

    If they don’t buy any tickets can we sell their allocation to our own fans?

  16. We have managed to reduce the gap in the league to 4 points without Scot Brown,the argument here is not how good a footballer he is but the morality of the situation, were he hires a guy to get him the best deal possible then expects Celtic to pay his bill! I hope Celtic stick to their guns and refuse this ridiculous demand.

  17. Joe Filippis Haircut on

    The Honest cover up. I agree with your conclusion I dont think Broonie has any intention of signing a new contract he has his eye on pastures new. H.H.

  18. The Battered Bunnet on

    Vogue

     

     

    Awkward? Moi?

     

     

    I just want the football on the telly. Those awkward bassas are insisting I pay £20 per month for Style and Culture channels I don’t need. What do they think I am? A Rangers supporter or something….

  19. Ron Bacardi

     

     

    Thanks for the English lesson and it’s nice to know there’s a critic in the house.

  20. BOBBY MURDOCH'S CURLED-UP WINKLEPICKERS on

    TOPCORNER 1249

     

     

    I do the same when I buy tickets to go home for a break,see the folks,dig the garden,etc Sometimes I’m allowed out for a swift half.

     

     

    Anyway,no matter how many times my tickets-via London-work,I always see myself at Staples Corner in the driving rain,hoping for a lift from a kind trucker going further than Watford.

     

     

    Modern technology and I,as proven by a certain embarrassing post yesterday,are strangers,and will always remain so.

  21. Paul67 – Not sure making a drama out of statistics is wise but I’ll need to check it out.

     

     

    I didn’t think a film about Facebook would be any good, but I liked it. (thumbsup)

  22. Cliched expressions not applicable to Mr Dirk Flatfoot Esq.

     

     

     

    No.2

     

     

    “Don’t cut your nose off to spite your face.”

  23. Systematically using EBT´s in the way the huns have have given them an unfair financial advantage over the years this cannot be disputed unless Hun FC win their appeal. We Will just have to wait and see on that one.

     

     

    By not paying their PAYE and NI presently has given them an unfair financial advantage that simply cannot be disputed.

     

     

    Why should Hearts players go without salaries with Romanov paying his PAYE and NI and Hun players dont because Craig Whyte chooses not to ?

     

     

    How can the huns during this period be allowed to bring in players on trial and then sign those players ?

     

     

    It cant be a surprise that Romanov under these conditions wants to walk away. It also shows his comments as being those of a highly perceptive man rather than those of a raving looney as he is oft portrayed ?

     

     

    Now either the RTC guy has been sold a big dummy or by going how quiet the whole of Scottish football has been about this particular story then the only logical conclusion to draw from this is that they have already clandestinely accepted NEWco Rangers

     

     

    Hail Hail

  24. The Battered Bunnet says:

     

    29 November, 2011 at 12:54

     

    How much is a season ticket at the Vogue?

     

     

    —————————————————

     

     

    If you don’t drink ,it’s free.

     

    If you take a semi-alky package ,it’s £3000-£5000 per annum

     

    If you go the whole hog package ,it’s yir wife,yir hoose and yir weans.

  25. Hello lads and others,

     

     

    Sure this has been asked but what channel is showing the game tomorrow?

     

     

    Cheers

     

     

    Swiss

  26. iBhoy, thanks. Will get to see it.

     

     

    ASonOfDan, he’s been v unfortunate with injuries.

     

     

    TTTT, ah, Bobo’s deal..

     

     

    excathedra44, cheers.

     

     

    Assetmanager, ha!

     

     

    BOBBY MURDOCH’S… unless they are looking for a move.

     

     

    Vinibhoy, midfield is one area we are well covered.

     

     

    philvisreturns, yes, me too.

  27. TBB

     

     

    Mixed messages. You say you don’t want the style content and then, in the next breath, you ask about a Vogue season ticket.

     

     

    Hmmmm.

  28. The Battered Bunnet says:

     

     

    29 November, 2011 at 12:54

     

     

    How much is a season ticket at the Vogue?

     

     

     

    There’s a waiting list