Nothing says distressed sale of a football club quite as much as a loan securitised against incoming transfer fees. Until now, Newco directors have put their hands in their pockets to fund the money pit of a football club. The seemingly endless list of wealthy benefactors has finally stopped.
Newco’s most recent published accounts are for season 2022-23, a year in which they sold Calvin Bassey and Joe Aribo for around £25m (last season’s can be delayed no later than 31 March). The accounts showed £16.8m due for these (and possibly other) deals. Much of that money will have been paid in the 21 months since, while they sold around £11m of players in the same period. This means Macquarrie Bank (the lender) will have security over at least £10m income due from other football clubs.
US investors currently carrying out due diligence on the club, will be aware that no one with a closer attachment to the business is prepared to invest, that significant income streams will be paid directly to a bank, and that they have several motivated sellers. An aspect of due diligence is that it is carried out with an exclusivity clause. Newco will be unable to discuss an investment with other parties while this process is ongoing, which, according to reports, will take until June.
The potential investors are buying the income stream from ticket sales, European participation and commercial deals. It has been a while since Newco have reported a ‘normal’ trading season. Last season’s figures are not out yet, the season before was exceptional with Champions League income (£80m), the one before that was also exceptional, with a run to the Europa Final (£82m), while the two before that were affected by Covid.
You have to go back to season 2018-19 before they reported on a normal year, with participation in the Europa League. Revenue that season was £51m, which practically any competent backroom team would be able to improve upon.
I estimate Newco’s normal income level, in a season they achieve Europa League group participation, will come in around £75m. That is well below their last reported operating expenses (£92m), but, according to Philippe Clement, the wage bill has been cut since then and can be cut again.
£75m is enough to turn a profit at Newco, if you are sufficiently remote from crazy demands to spend more money. They are a genuine investment opportunity. Buy the club for buttons, explain how Uefa Financial Sustainability Regulations prohibit continuous loss-making, bring some sanity to the player recruitment model, make the club profitable and sell at a premium 3-5 years out.
To a US investor, this continual loss making must seem mad. It can be ended at a budget meeting and California is sufficiently remote that fan feedback will never reach them. Both parties will be keen to conclude. Market turmoil (leading to higher borrowing costs/better returns available elsewhere), and cultural aspects around Newco are risks which could dampen enthusiasm.
Notwithstanding that, this is the absolute stick-on opportunity Craig Whyte tried to pull off with Oldco. Stop the loss making, bring the club into compliance with Uefa FSR, bank the profit and sell up at a significant capital gain. Why wouldn’t you?
This is why it is important that Celtic are run at a profit. We will never become hostages to fortune, never depend on a supposed-sugar daddy and trade within our own means. Being owned by a genuine billionaire who, if he does achieves nothing else, maintains this policy, has benefits. I also think Celtic will look soft to data-first US sports people. We are far from invulnerable, which will encourage investment elsewhere by those who prize elite player trading models.
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Foist ?
What happened to the Morelos money?
Have the investors asked themselves what happens to season ticket sales if it becomes apparent to their fan base that they’re not catching Celtic ?
It can be ended at a budget meeting and California is sufficiently remote that fan feedback will never reach them.
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Budget meeting or not, players have contracts. It ain’t a quick fix.
If Rangers are borrowing £10m to finance the purchase of players then £4.5m of that amount will be for the purchase of the South American winger they bought from FC Lens and who seems to be permanently injured. Will the £5.5m balance be used to buy Cerny or will it be earmarked for younger talents such as Lennon Miller?
Paul 67 et al,
Another article about the huns.
A fair percentage of posts on here are about the huns.
The ” old firm” lives.
Put frankly, in domestic football we need them. Someone to hate is good for business.
We have seen the consequences of not having them in our league.
A fall in revenue and income. Huge tarpaulins over some top stands. Lots of empty seats.
We cannot contemplate many projects if they are not about.
Sad but true.
That is why European football is so important to us. We dont need them in that environment.
European football refreshes the parts that domestic football cannot reach.
HH.
Didn’t the Huns have another Sherman Tank expressing interest taking them over, then ran a mile at the bile that erupted over the way he planned to run them somewhat augustly ??
Anyways, David ‘I Used To Be Fergus’s Right Hand Man’ Low opined to Tino at the Celtic Exchange that we did, in fact, need the Sevvies as they’re good for business. Harrumph !
I guess they’re the Merc to our BMW.
As for making them a new-born economic powerhouse and selling them for super big dosh; hmmmmmm…?
If Rangers are borrowing £10m to finance the purchase of players
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Why not use season ticket money ? The transfer window doesn’t open till June.
This is almost certainly working capital.
Bayern Munich winning 5-0 on aggregate over Leverkusen illustrates Celtic’s remarkable progress, under Brendan Rodgers. Careful boardroom manoeuvres could keep Celtic ahead this generation and the next starting with a new deal for the manager.
BRRB
I am somewhat relieved that you suggested yesterday was a bad Cheltenham day.
I am something of a novice, though yesterday was a catastrophe.
The Champion Hurdle didn’t help. I’m sure many doubles and trebles crashed against those fences.
Better luck today
Seems like rather an odd club to have such an interest in….
MH
Continued thanks for the hooples, great fun – got it in hree!
BSR 12.29
I agree 100%
HH
Burnley78 do you?
HH
quadrophenian on 12th March 2025 12:26 pm
I guess they’re the Merc to our BMW.
The Lada to our BMW, mair like .
The British Leyland Princess to our BMW.
There’s a large degree of opaqueness surrounding the Huns finances. That was the whole point of de-listing the club.
However, we know they run at annual losses. We know they have a cash flow problem. We know there’s debt owed to directors.
Commercial deals and players contracts could have several years to run – termination or restructure of such deals will add to costs.
Reducing the immediate player budget will lead to fan anger and volatility on the football operations as evidenced by their manager turnover in recent years. European prize money being reduced as the squad is weakened seems a reasonable assumption.
I’m struggling to see the opportunity here. This is very high risk.
BOURNESOUPRECIPE @ 12:29 PM,
Yes, with our eyes very much on the European prize, we really have improved in all aspects of the football club.
This season, even with a great pre-season, the improvement over eight months has been tangible.
The Bayern play-off has proven we can find a way of playing, where we can flourish domestically and compete in the UCL.
It’s great we have buy in from our principal shareholder and Executive, yet as you allude to, the architect of this improvement is Brendan Rodgers, he has built a great foundation.
Let’s get him signed up long term to build a Club fit for lions.
Hail Hail
AN TEARMANN on 12TH MARCH 2025 12:41 PM
BSR 12.29
I agree 100%
HH
Burnley78 do you?
HH
———————————-
Thinks Bazza has a better record 🤦♂️
Glenowen 12.30
I echo Big Jimmy sentiments about all horses and jockeys coming back sound. The recent death of Michael O’Sullivan is a reminder of a hard game.
Puts my hopeless punting into perspective.
We’ll strike it lucky today. 👍
The Homer mobile to our BMW 🤪
http://tup.s3.amazonaws.com/cms/labs/images/homer-mobile.jpg
CHAIRBHOY
The Brendan voyage, – we’re on it 👍
Big league, with a big time manager, record supporter costs set to follow, if we have to pay up then no tepid ‘boardroom’ performance, will suffice.
HH
If only the SF 49s had been in earlier they could have bought the lot for £1!
I understand people’s frustration with articles on the Huns, but like it or not they are by far our nearest challengers. While there has been much talk of an early Aberdeen challenge until they collapsed and then a Hibs challenge they are 33 and 32 points behind us in the league. I know the Ibrox Skintos are 16 points behind (hopefully 19 points behind on Sunday) they are as good (rotten) as it gets, that’s not Paul’s or Celtic’s fault surely?
Get rid of the Toaries and fake liberals & climate change Con artists, Red & Blue & Yellow & Green & Reform dupes & thieves & Conmen/women & Lizards oot ae the woke boaking Scoattish fake Parliament were Brown racists hate White people and want to starve disabled folk to death & make Parkhead Non accessible & then laugh thur arses aff at yeez!
And to think that styoopid gullible Tims actually vote for these creatures!?
PS, when Brian Dempsey and other Integrity driven “Rebel Consortium” Investors realized that Fergus McCann was just a cheap punk who glibly lied his way through his 5 year mission.
Then the option of making Celtic FC a big giant club from Robroyston [ centre of the universe ] instead of a wee club fae the history books playing at a stadium next to a Graveyard.
Which the sleekit degenerate and racist SNP & Green-Lib-Labour/nutcases against White people, have thrown a mountain of obstacles around the access routes to Parkhead.
But do you know what the craziest bit is?
Celtic fans/idiots/clowns/sheep/suckers will vote these racist against White people gender bender creeps back in again! lol
So………………………………..NO BULLIONS BEING SPENT ?. HOW NO ?.
I’d be curious as to thoughts as to why P67 suggests that the SanFranSevcos think that “Celtic will look soft to data-first US sports people. We are far from invulnerable, which will encourage investment elsewhere by those who prize elite player trading models.”
Are we soft because
– we are seen as moving away from analytics in recruitment?
– we depend too heavily on BR?
– we depend too heavily on volatile income streams such as CL income / player sales?
Celtic40me on previous thread – a very enjoyable read
I’m probably in the minority here but I think hurdles at Cheltenham should be binned. All in it for money, money, money.
These beautiful animals being slaughtered every year, just so wankers can try and win a few bob is nothing short of disgrace in my book. If a jockey falls and breaks a leg, do they put him down as well ?
Tin hat at the ready
KINGLuBO
QUADBHOY on 12TH MARCH 2025 1:56 PM
I think Paul67 is suggesting we’ve moved away from it already. US investors will see that as something that can be improved on to make us more profitable.
Football, the game for the ” working classes eh”
What ManUre are doing is to shallow and show no respect to the fans who got them where they are
KINGLuBO
so were should rhe new celtic park be ?
Not sure what the lead is all about no mention of it on the BBC website
Can’t see us moving – but a major investment into improvements is essential. Main stand is a priority
BACK TO BASICS & YORKBHOY
Thanks
I do think what happened at Rangers and is happening now at Sevco does need to be paid attention to when we’re talking about a new stand or a stadia. Clubs like Spurs and Arsenal had to spend the money, the same at Everton, they couldn’t carry on in their old ones and remain competitive. The Everton ground nearly did for them, building it and financing caused them so many problems that Moshiri was forced to sell when he probably didnt want to. Because of the TV deals EPL clubs have much easier access to cheap finance, and the new owners will see it as adding value to the club for when they sell it
We dont need to spend, and we dont have access to cheap finance. We have worked incredibly hard for a long time to remain debt free and profitable, it gives you the sort of freedom to make decisions that make you perennial winners. I would hate to risk it for a new stand our ground that doesnt materially improve the team
or stadium
Entirely agree Paul67
Borrowing against future income sounds like the end for the business in its present form.
Borrowing against future income = mortgage
I had one for 25 years
celtic40me on 12th March 2025 2:16 pm
“I think Paul67 is suggesting we’ve moved away from it already.”
Agree he does believe this – but is that why we are seen as soft?
“US investors will see that as something that can be improved on to make us more profitable.”
I read it another way; I read it as investors will be encouraged to invest elsewhere (e.g. Sevco) as we are soft and “far from invulnerable” and that people might think that Sevco (or Hearts, etc) could challenge us if they invested and succeeded in “elite player trading models” at such a club.
Quite a punt, especially at Sevco.
Great read Pablo. Respect.
Brings clarity among the chatter.
I can see the potential opportunity that would appeal to a US investor … to an extent
Pure numbers game?
Cut costs, stabilise, polish the turd, sell it on.
Nothing complicated.
Obviously, the same opportunity isn’t available to an investor who lives on Paisley Road West.
They’d burn his house down.
I say “to an extent” for two reasons
1. There is a value ceiling for the polished turd.
Celtic, 20% bigger than R2ngers on R2ngers’ best day, and one of the best run clubs in Europe, aren’t actually worth that much
2. Stuck record I know …
Any profit margin depends heavily buying “the club for buttons”.
Those who previously invested millions and who astutely insisted on floating charges against anything nailed down to protect their investment … are highly unlikely to accept buttons.
Only way I can see this working?
Separate arrangements to give these large investors somewhere around 80 to 100 pence in the pound … in return for supporting a sale price of tuppence a share.
They’ll get out largely unscathed.
The morons who bought into it at 70p (Green) or 27.5p (King) will get screwed … but will be too busy rejoicing about the new regime to notice.