Nothing says distressed sale of a football club quite as much as a loan securitised against incoming transfer fees. Until now, Newco directors have put their hands in their pockets to fund the money pit of a football club. The seemingly endless list of wealthy benefactors has finally stopped.
Newco’s most recent published accounts are for season 2022-23, a year in which they sold Calvin Bassey and Joe Aribo for around £25m (last season’s can be delayed no later than 31 March). The accounts showed £16.8m due for these (and possibly other) deals. Much of that money will have been paid in the 21 months since, while they sold around £11m of players in the same period. This means Macquarrie Bank (the lender) will have security over at least £10m income due from other football clubs.
US investors currently carrying out due diligence on the club, will be aware that no one with a closer attachment to the business is prepared to invest, that significant income streams will be paid directly to a bank, and that they have several motivated sellers. An aspect of due diligence is that it is carried out with an exclusivity clause. Newco will be unable to discuss an investment with other parties while this process is ongoing, which, according to reports, will take until June.
The potential investors are buying the income stream from ticket sales, European participation and commercial deals. It has been a while since Newco have reported a ‘normal’ trading season. Last season’s figures are not out yet, the season before was exceptional with Champions League income (£80m), the one before that was also exceptional, with a run to the Europa Final (£82m), while the two before that were affected by Covid.
You have to go back to season 2018-19 before they reported on a normal year, with participation in the Europa League. Revenue that season was £51m, which practically any competent backroom team would be able to improve upon.
I estimate Newco’s normal income level, in a season they achieve Europa League group participation, will come in around £75m. That is well below their last reported operating expenses (£92m), but, according to Philippe Clement, the wage bill has been cut since then and can be cut again.
£75m is enough to turn a profit at Newco, if you are sufficiently remote from crazy demands to spend more money. They are a genuine investment opportunity. Buy the club for buttons, explain how Uefa Financial Sustainability Regulations prohibit continuous loss-making, bring some sanity to the player recruitment model, make the club profitable and sell at a premium 3-5 years out.
To a US investor, this continual loss making must seem mad. It can be ended at a budget meeting and California is sufficiently remote that fan feedback will never reach them. Both parties will be keen to conclude. Market turmoil (leading to higher borrowing costs/better returns available elsewhere), and cultural aspects around Newco are risks which could dampen enthusiasm.
Notwithstanding that, this is the absolute stick-on opportunity Craig Whyte tried to pull off with Oldco. Stop the loss making, bring the club into compliance with Uefa FSR, bank the profit and sell up at a significant capital gain. Why wouldn’t you?
This is why it is important that Celtic are run at a profit. We will never become hostages to fortune, never depend on a supposed-sugar daddy and trade within our own means. Being owned by a genuine billionaire who, if he does achieves nothing else, maintains this policy, has benefits. I also think Celtic will look soft to data-first US sports people. We are far from invulnerable, which will encourage investment elsewhere by those who prize elite player trading models.
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Bournesouprecipe
Factually for European games Ferguson has a better record.
Indeed I don’t know if our man has won any knockout games in Europe at all ?
It doesn’t mean I think he is a better manager though.
An T.
It depends on the structure around him in my view. That needs to be stronger and there has to be a good framework in my view.
Not against it though. For what my view is worth.
Factually for European games Ferguson has a better record.
Indeed I don’t know if our man has won any knockout games in Europe at all
—
I don’t know why you’d repeat this having been corrected by several posters already.
BR has won knock out games at Liverpool, Celtic and Leicester.
QUADBHOY on 12TH MARCH 2025 2:44 PM
“I read it another way; I read it as investors will be encouraged to invest elsewhere (e.g. Sevco) as we are soft and “far from invulnerable” and that people might think that Sevco (or Hearts, etc) could challenge us if they invested and succeeded in “elite player trading models” at such a club.”
Yes, investors will be looking if the gap is bridgeable before they spend their money. If theres anything we arent doing well that they can do better, particularly if its as important as player trading then they’ll see an opportunity. Its not new to them, they’ll be confident they can apply what they already know.
From the outside the difference between us and them could eventually only be the extra 10,000 fans we have in our ground. If there is something they can do better than us that advantage can be negated.
As we’ve seen in the past, we’re one bad managerial appointment from being overtaken by the Huns. That won’t be an issue for at least 16 months.
What do we think the financial advantage 10,000 extra fans brings us? Our and their accounts suggest its around £10m per season in match day revenue
£10m isn’t much in a successful player trading model
AN DÚN on 12TH MARCH 2025 3:09 PM
As we’ve seen in the past, we’re one bad managerial appointment from being overtaken by the Huns. That won’t be an issue for at least 16 months.
And then what?
BURNLEY78
Factually, he’s won a Europa game, as an ‘inte-rum’ head coach of Sevco. Quite why a Celtic supporter thinks that merits any comparison with Brendan Rodgers beats me.
However, knock yourself out CSC
Our next manager wont be as good a football manager as Brendan, thats almost a certainty.
We will need to improve other areas in the club that we dont do as well at the moment.
Which might not be as difficult as some think. But we must
ferguson never won a single european tie with alloa or kelty hearts
AN DÚN on 12TH MARCH 2025 3:09 PM
“ How ? “
Glaswegian for Why .
🎶Same old Alloa always cheating 🎶
Aff oot CSC
celtic40me on 12th March 2025 3:12 pm
What do we think the financial advantage 10,000 extra fans brings us? Our and their accounts suggest its around £10m per season in match day revenue
not truefor the last reporting period.
they had more games, higher prices and more hospitality.
—————————-
it is the uefa financial report, very good benchmarking and analyics. 120 pages long, and a real deep dive on financials and ownership, and wages etc etc etc.
celtic appearing in the top 20 at number 7 for the most profitable clubs – with 19m euros but down from 46m last year, also 7th place.
it is facutally true, in the category of match day revenues and per person revenue, rangers are in 19th place, some 3m euros ish more than celtic.
reflecting games in europe to actually qualify for the league structure and higher ticketing prices in the champions eague comparison.
our 10,000 seat advantage is not reflected in cash generated as many of our season card holders are in the youth special season books.
it will be mega for the next reporting period.
Average gate yield per home match (€m)
Ranking based on yield per home match7
Celtic 23rd – 2m euros per home match.
Rngers 24th – 2m euros per home match.
Yield per fan –
Celtic – 44th – 35 euo per fan
Rangers – 27th – 41 euro per fan,
they have less attendees, paying more per game, more hospitality, and more premium prices.
i am convinced celtic will redevlop for more fattus catticus attendnace.
new trafford – 100,000 capacity – 15,500 of them hospitality.
SAINT STIVS on 12TH MARCH 2025 3:31 PM
I was going from the most recent accounts.
I think the difference in match day revenue is normally around £10m. It was £7m in 2023-24 when they had a particularly good year. It will probably be back up again after an extra CL game for us and some more cup games compared to last season
2023/24 match attendances
Celtic -Total 24 games with attendance of 1,359,422 at 2million euros match day revenues.
24 x 2 million = 48 million euros divided by total attendances = 35 euros reveue per fan per game.
BOURNESOUPRECIPE on 12TH MARCH 2025 3:23 PM
AN DÚN on 12TH MARCH 2025 3:09 PM
“How? “Glaswegian for Why.
*I had to explain that to my Canadian colleges as well as wee meaning younger than and no necessarily smaller as in “the wee lassie over there at 5’10” and the age of any of my weans being wee, but when I would say something was “dead easy” that had them totally donald ducked as how can you be dead and easy.
Some won’t be happy until we have another compliant puppet back in the dugout
Ordinary Joe please note……
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I’m sitting beside 2 Fenerbace fans on a flight from London. I wished them good luck for tomorrow with a little help from Google translate
Ben bir Celtic taraftarıyım. Yarın için bol şans
“Ben bir Celtic taraftarıyım. Yarın için bol şans”
Translates as, ‘I am a Celtic fan…the huns are shite.’
celtic40me on 12th March 2025 3:12 pm
What do we think the financial advantage 10,000 extra fans brings us? Our and their accounts suggest its around £10m per season in match day revenue
£10m isn’t much in a successful player trading model
——–
C40me – don’t know is short answer.
I do suspect though that to “get to our level” an awful lot if debts, decks, deadbeats and deadwood will have to cleared.
That’ll take time.
For the fundamentals though? No harm in saying it.
IF they roughly match our total football costs
AND
IF we have broadly similar European revenue
AND
IF they roughly match our player trader model success (out and in)
AND
IF they can get free of onerous contracts particularly in the merchandising division
AND
They can successfully charge their 50,000 home fans £48 a ticket while we charge our 60,000 home fans £40 a ticket
AND
They can persuade their much smaller global fan based to pay £75 for an item Celtic charge £60 for?
They’ll be a financial match for us. Game on.
Simple. But not easy.
2023/24.
the rangers had 28 home matches, 4 more than celtic.
from uefas financial report, rangers also generate 2 million euros per match. and revenue per fan of 41 euros (v celtic 36)
our 10,000 more seats are not generating £10m more than rangers. i will come back to that on sb prices and sales numbers.
but very simply, they overtake us on the revenues per match, by playing 2 european qualifiers and going further in the competitions.
you can argue what does it matter when with direct access the last 2 seasons we enjoy the uefa guaranteed prize money.
we have the biggest merch sales buy many millions.
we have player sales , they give theirs away in lucky bags.
BOURNESOUPRECIPE @ 1:18 PM,
The Brendan voyage, – we’re on it 👍
Big league, with a big time manager, record supporter costs set to follow, if we have to pay up then no tepid ‘boardroom’ performance, will suffice”.
Exactly, Celtic Top Brass has liked to project themselves as the clued up smartest guys in the room who make Celtic FC the best run Club in Europe.
Well now they have the chance to put the money where their mouth is…
Celtic football team proved in Munich what they are capable of, we broke through a self imposed “glass ceiling” this season.
With the right backing Celtic competing at this level in the UCL will become the new normal.
Hail Hail
Good evening all from the Brazen Head. Day 2 Cheltenham was keech and jobby. Lille v Dortmund on now, the fun never stops. 👍
QUADBHOY @ 2:44 PM,
celtic40me @ 2:16 pm,
“We are far from invulnerable, which will encourage investment elsewhere by those who prize elite player trading models.”
It is odd how a double negative can confuse the heck out of us…
Agree with Quadbhoy – it reads like Celtic are “soft” and vulnerable at the moment.
While I don’t agree that this is due to our current recruitment* there is a point to be made.
In theory, Celtic and Rangers are pretty much identical businesses, in identical environments.
Therefore if Celtic PLC as a well managed business have; larger revenues, better current trophy haul, can compete in the most prestigious club football competition in the world and consistently turn a profit and “bank” the proceeds from that profit and player sales – why can’t a well run R2ngers achieve at least the same?
No reason at all to my way of thinking.
You don’t even need to be super-smart to achieve it, stop doing stupid stuff with the business and you’re half way there.
*POV: Celtic without it’s main domestic rival, when Rangers died, decided, rather than make European hay while the sunshone, would restructure Celtic FC’s approach, reviewing the clubs adhoc model of player development and trading and aiming to utilise it as a revenue stream.
They were partially successful at this, however, the implementation was far from consistent or proficient.
Since we lost the TIAR, DD&Co have taken a much more proactive interest in these aspects of the Club, not afraid to intervene when things are going haywire, and one of the results is the recruitment approach has been honed to be fit for purpose.
Hail Hail
Alan Morrison’s take on the take-over! Starts about the 47.50 mark. This is the link to the Huddle Breakdown. It’s available other places than sub stack I think
https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=2922118&post_id=158877019&play_audio=true&r=4532da&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyNTA0MDU4MjIsInBvc3RfaWQiOjE1ODg3NzAxOSwiaWF0IjoxNzQxNzM2Nzg4LCJleHAiOjE3NDQzMjg3ODgsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yOTIyMTE4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.tbf0x998ZdZo6HLpkehciFgJ7Y87FXh51VSYhxFDu2Q
something i would not expect to say. TheRangers detail the number and value of their season book sales in their annual report better than Celtic plc do.
The Rangers 2024 v 2023.
Number of season tickets sold 44,596 (45,172)
Season ticket sales (£’000s) 19,053 (18,205)
Average season ticket price ex. VAT (£) 427 (403)
Average attendance (league home matches) 49,106 49,116
So 45k season tickets sold generates £19m is revenue.
——————————
Celtic for 2024 sold 53,139 but do not report average sales price. I do feel in fairness we have many more consession and youths discounted tickets. So lets say 8,500 at £427 average = £3,650,000
After that every game is sold out, but 2000 seats are unoccupied. So another 7000 public sale for every game, applying the average again at £427 = Nearly £3,000,000.
So our 10,000 higher capacty generates somwhere around £6.5-£7.5M.
4 more games for them and our revenues match.
CHAIRBHOY on 12TH MARCH 2025 5:57 PM
So by your logic, half of it is easy, Brendan takes care of the difficult half with his new recruitment strategy
Not the most unexpected take on quite a complex issue. Lets hope no one is looking in.
KINGLUBO
from earlier.
You are not alone.
Atleti verse Real fascinating game in prospect . Aggregate score makes for compulsive viewing, Atleti hope home advantage might help with the 11 – 3 deficit in UEFA tournaments, verse their fierce rival.
20.00 TNT.
The hun are allowed back in our home. I can’t say how much that angers me. Maybe I will. They shall wreck fixtures and fittings, leave the holy ground and attack innocent, defenceless people, Celtic folk or not. Tollcross Road, Springfield Road, London Road, Gallowgate shall be infested with these cowardly, subhuman criminals. F@#k the hun Celtic.
but but but.
i would disagree we are identical business. we are better at every part of the businees, and operate at a different governance and operationaL level, WE ARE a Champions league side. They are a EUROPA league team.
IMHO they are as likely to go bust as they are to be bought over.
looking forwad to that old favourite song for sunday …………
THE HUNS ARE GOING BUST … AGAIN.
bigrailroadblues on 12th March 2025 6:28 pm
OVER ON sc, MAHE has said it is all diluted and their fans are well policed and trouble is rare.
utter tosh.
their blogs are full of hate speech,
they are coming to wreck our place.
Stivs
Read his piece, I like the fellow but he doesn’t live here.
CHAIRBHOY
Tier One manager deserves tier one backing, it’s not rocket salad.
Spent too many years in MON’s ‘ slow lane ‘ in Europe without question, luckily this time saw Dermot Desmond, step back in. We buy, sell and manage extremely well, BR doesn’t accept the Marvin Compper’s this time round.
HH