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Smart clubs and following the data

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By on CQN BLOG & Comments

Success in football is determined by a number of matters: the ability of the manager, players performing at the right level, injuries and sheer luck, and in Scotland, a club’s determination to influence officials with an exaggerated sense of grievance.  Apparently.

But transfer business has an even greater impact than dodgy penalties.  This is one area Celtic need to get right over the next two windows.  Our performance, not just in the summer window, but across our last three transfer windows has been poor.  There is often a lag in outcomes before the impact of a window is felt.  The £32m spent in the summer of 2024 failed to see many minutes on the pitch a year later, during Champions League qualification, for example.

The CIES Football Observatory published their survey of the “world’s smartest clubs on the transfer market since January 2021”.  Tony Bloom has two clubs in the top 10: Brighton (2nd) and Union SG (8th); I’m sure he didn’t bet on that outcome (my Tony Bloom man-crush has faded a little this week).

The top 20 has some lessons for us: Atalanta, Napoli, Bologna, Udinese and Lecce, demonstrate how well the medium-to-small Italian clubs have figured out how to progress.  Is it surprising so many young Scottish players have bounced after moving there?

Benfica are there, as are Feyenoord, but not Ajax.  The Amsterdamers beat Celtic to the signing of €12m striker Kasper Dolberg in the summer, which traumatised many of us.  Dolberg has returned one goal in all competitions since, a consolation in a defeat to Excelsior.  Not that the lad’s had much of a chance, his only appearances have been off the bench.

The Ajax-Dolberg-Celtic tale says so much about where we were in the summer.  Unable to attract a player who cannot get a game at a team woefully underperforming this season.  There are so many reasons why we should not have wasted time on this exercise, it scarcely needs explaining.

Celtic are 19th in the table, between Manchester City and Leipzig.  How can that be?  I hear you ask.  The lag works both ways.  Analysis of Celtic still benefits from earlier signings, up until that of Nicolas Kuhn in January 2024, who left the premises this summer.  The full impact of the subsequent windows has not shown up yet.

Being “smartest” in the transfer window does not guarantee success, but it’ll outperform being thick, no matter how good your ‘exaggerated sense of grievance’ game is.

Looking in from the outside, it’s easy to say, ‘be more like Bloom’ (although not with that other stuff), but as many observers will note, getting this right is not easy.  What is easy, is to stick to the data.  Recognise what succeeds and what fails and always back your winning hand.  A lack of observance of this principle in football is quite astonishing.

Postscript: I looked down the list and eventually found Aberdeen, but after continuous scrolling I ran out of patience trying to find another Scottish club.  Looks like Bloom’s magic touch has yet to hit Hearts.

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  1. Chairbhoy on

    Good Morning Celts – Grand Day To Be A Tim,

     

     

    Quadrophenian @ 9:06 pm,

     

     

    Quite:))))

     

     

    It was only part tongue in cheek though…

     

     

    We could learn a lot from the EPL who have proven they are top, of the top leagues.

     

     

    Managers like Pep and Arteta are never going to end up at Celtic Park but I’d never say never with Unai Emery…

     

     

    However, that’s years down the line…

     

     

    We have our bright, shinny, new manager – as WN&Co have there debut

     

     

    It is nicely set up, we have a top of the League clash with the winners securing top spot.

     

     

    Fortress Celtic Park and the League’s in form team, means it is set up nicely for Wilfried Nancy to start on a high.

     

     

    Celtic 3 – 0 Hearts

     

     

    COYBIG

     

     

    Hail Hail

  3. Chairbhoy on

    Bigrailroadblues @ 9:34 am,

     

     

    Yes – it will be interesting, Hearts loss of form must be taken in context.

     

     

    They have only conceded six goals in their last ten SPL games.

     

     

    Just to help your nerves there:)))

     

     

    You may wish to Imbibe…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  5. An Dún on

    Watched the big decisions from last night’s game this morning. Wow. Just wow.

     

     

    The sight of the Sky Sports panel debating whether the Killie player was even reaching the ball having been fouled in the box is gaslighting of the highest order.

     

     

    Operation ‘Get the rangers European football’ is in full swing.

  7. GuyFawkesaforeverhero on

    Good luck to the Celts today, a mission into the unknown.

     

     

    I’m travelling up to watch the game not serve eviction notices on any of the owners nor sack any office workers whose squad lists disappoint me.

     

     

    Has to be said though, I’ll be glad when the not a penny more action is over. Costing me a fortune at the kiosks in recent weeks.

  9. Turkeybhoy on

    Its the only enemy in the world ,a truly terrifying sight,for snidey,sleekit,Board members.A Poster,Aaarrrggghhh,!!!!!!!!.

     

    “Quick pack a case,get the Grand kids to somewhere safe.Get in the car and drive like hell.Stop for no one.I will ring you when its safe to return”.

     

    ” But Peter,what about you”

     

    “I will be OK,I have our Masonic Security Chief informing his brethren and ex Police employees,to hunt the Poster Bhoys down,and my pet Hack at in the Media is doing his bit,dehumanising the culprits.”

     

    ” But Peter,will it work”

     

    ” Early signs are good.I had a quick look on CQN,and a good few have already swallowed the story ,as they always do,wish the Collective were as thick.That bloody Michael,wont answer his phone.Its as if he is afraid to speak.Anyway,away you go,I am heading into the stadium early,avoid the riff raff.”

     

    Tune in tomorrow for anotheer exciting episode of Board UnderThreat.A Daily Record production.

  10. An Dún on

    We won’t have too long to wait to see the impact of the not another penny campaign.

     

     

    We recorded £18 million of merchandise revenue in last year’s interims. Let’s see where that figure sits in two months.

  11. Maestro on

    Is Calmac our most influential captain in the last few decades now given his form and consistency with the great ability to score some vital late winners and now being touted to offered a place in the squad for the world cup after Scotland having a gap and lack of foothold in key qualifying matches .

  12. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    Enjoy the game Guy Fawkes. I managed to get a ticket and really looking forward to it.

     

     

    A couple of beers pre-game then a trip to the superstore. I may even have a pizza and a couple of pies at halftime before applauding the bhoys at FT after a 3-1 victory.

     

     

    Not only that, having a ticket also entitles us to an opinion.

     

     

    Happy days😀

  14. KINGLUBO on

    We don’t want Rainjurz to be competitive, we need all SP Hell teams to be competitive surely

     

     

    3 – 1 the good guys today and hopefully Verstappen wins the F1 championship as a bonus

     

     

     

    kingLUBO

  15. Chairbhoy on

    The Blogger Formerly Known As GM @ 11:11 am,

     

     

    Your entitled to an opinion…

     

     

    Great…

     

     

    Has Burnley78 et al given it to you yet?

     

     

    Do you know there is a foodbank and toy collection for the underpriveleged prior to the game?

     

     

    Maybe forgo a beer, spending money on yourself and stuffing your face.

     

     

    And getting into the Christmas spirit showing a bit of unselfish generosity…

     

     

    Just~a~thot

     

     

    Hail Hail

  16. GuyFawkesaforeverhero on

    Maestro on 7th December 2025 11:21AM

     

     

    My seat is in 143, lower level where the North Stand bends round to join the Jock Stein Stand. Lucky to have advantage of slightly wider spacing as a consequence.

     

     

    Big decisions required at right full back for us against their Greek winger.

  18. Chairbhoy on

    Does anybody remember Harry Enfield’s despicable Thatcherite character Loadsamoney…

     

     

    A crass English working class local boy made good…

     

     

    While laughing at him – did you ever think there would be so called Celtic supporters bigging it up to the less fortunate without a hint of irony.

     

     

    What have we become!?

     

     

    Hail Hail

  19. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    I’ll be giving to the Celtic Foundation, but thanks for the advice.

     

     

    It’s a shame you can’t be there, but if you start marching round your living room shouting “sack the board” at 1.15 then start throwing paper aeroplanes and tangerines at your tele at 3 you can be there in spirit.👍

     

     

    Enjoy your afternoon.

  23. Celtic Mac on

    AnTearmann@1.27am

     

     

    Wait a minute, so the Green Brigade attend Celtic matches home and away? And why would that be?

     

    It is because Celtic FC facilitate it because they enable it. It is because Celtic FC for years have went out of their way to ensure that the GB have had guaranteed access to season and home and away match tickets at a level far and above any other group of Celtic supporters, including Celtic Supporters Clubs. And yet, along with the Celtic Fan Collective have made it their mission to get rid of the very Celtic supporting Board that has the responsibility of actually running Celtic Football Club. And not only that, attacking, demonising and vilifying them individually and collectively. Now you may well identify and support such a level of animus but the one thing Celtic FC was not founded upon was hatred, how could it be when its’ primary founder was a Marist Brother?

     

    You want to dish out insults to me? I’ll give you a piece of advice, do not play the Uber or Ultra fan with me, it simply does not work. As Cork Celt said on here a long time ago, we have all found our own path to Celtic, and we all support Celtic how and when we can, or could if we had the same access as the Green Brigade.

     

    You talk of ‘reconciliation’ well do yourself and the rest of us a favour en route from St Mary’s to Celtic Park this afternoon, stop by any one of the GB food collection points and ask them how do they “reconcile” their love for Celtic (and indeed maintaining a historic tradition), their privileged access, with the hate they and others are displaying against the very people who have the present day responsibility of actually running Celtic Football Club.

  24. Hot Smoked on

    Hoop hoop Hooray on 7th December 2025 12:01 pm

     

    Outstanding article.

     

     

    Not for me , it wasn`t.

     

    Too often the author presented assumptions as fact and suggested, without supporting evidence, that the majority felt the same as he did.

     

    The clip below MIGHT reflect what `people want` but they are not the main topics I hear Celtic supporters talk of in general conversation.

     

     

    ” People want basic competence, long-term planning, and operations fit for a modern club. They want data-driven recruitment and a football department built for European demands. They want investment in the infrastructure that helps teams thrive rather than scattergun signings.”

  25. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    ●●Former Celtic and hearts player,signed by Jock Stein.He held the record of having the shortest name of any Celtic player until Du Wei signed.●●

     

    Any idea?

     

    Three points today.👍

  26. EKBhoy on

    BHOYJOEBELFAST on 7TH DECEMBER 2025 1:04 PM

     

    ●●Former Celtic and hearts player,signed by Jock Stein.He held the record of having the shortest name of any Celtic player until Du Wei signed.●●

     

     

    Any idea?

     

     

    Three points today.👍

     

    …..

     

     

    Easy Roy Kay

  29. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    ● Now for the other Edinburgh side●

     

    Which player having won a Scottish cup winners medal in 1980,earned the unusual achievement of winning two league medals in the same season.In 1981,played enough games for Celtic,who won the Premier Division, and Hibs who won the First Division,to qualify for a medal from each championship?

  32. bognorbhoy on

    CELTIC: Schmeichel, Tierney, Scales, Trusty, McGregor (c), Engels, Nygren, Hatate, Tounekti, Yang, Maeda.

     

    Subs: Sinisalo, Balikwisha, McCowan, Iheanacho, Kenny, Bernardo, Murray, Donovan, Ralston

  33. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    72 minutes until kick off.

     

     

    Top of the table clash.

     

     

    Not a mention on the BBC Football Home Page.

     

     

    BBC Sport Scotland haven’t promoted the build up story to the network.

     

     

    But they have promoted a story about guess who

     

     

    .. and yes, it is a gushing, “we’re on the move” job

  34. mncelt on

    CELTIC: Schmeichel, Tierney, Scales, Trusty, McGregor (c), Engels, Nygren, Hatate, Tounekti, Yang, Maeda.

     

     

    Subs: Sinisalo, Balikwisha, McCowan, Iheanacho, Kenny, Bernardo, Murray, Donovan, Ralston

  41. dessybhoy on

    Is this 3 5 2 , guy is just in the door goes in against a team at the top who play a left winger without a right back, seriously.

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