Smart clubs and following the data

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Success in football is determined by a number of matters: the ability of the manager, players performing at the right level, injuries and sheer luck, and in Scotland, a club’s determination to influence officials with an exaggerated sense of grievance.  Apparently.

But transfer business has an even greater impact than dodgy penalties.  This is one area Celtic need to get right over the next two windows.  Our performance, not just in the summer window, but across our last three transfer windows has been poor.  There is often a lag in outcomes before the impact of a window is felt.  The £32m spent in the summer of 2024 failed to see many minutes on the pitch a year later, during Champions League qualification, for example.

The CIES Football Observatory published their survey of the “world’s smartest clubs on the transfer market since January 2021”.  Tony Bloom has two clubs in the top 10: Brighton (2nd) and Union SG (8th); I’m sure he didn’t bet on that outcome (my Tony Bloom man-crush has faded a little this week).

The top 20 has some lessons for us: Atalanta, Napoli, Bologna, Udinese and Lecce, demonstrate how well the medium-to-small Italian clubs have figured out how to progress.  Is it surprising so many young Scottish players have bounced after moving there?

Benfica are there, as are Feyenoord, but not Ajax.  The Amsterdamers beat Celtic to the signing of €12m striker Kasper Dolberg in the summer, which traumatised many of us.  Dolberg has returned one goal in all competitions since, a consolation in a defeat to Excelsior.  Not that the lad’s had much of a chance, his only appearances have been off the bench.

The Ajax-Dolberg-Celtic tale says so much about where we were in the summer.  Unable to attract a player who cannot get a game at a team woefully underperforming this season.  There are so many reasons why we should not have wasted time on this exercise, it scarcely needs explaining.

Celtic are 19th in the table, between Manchester City and Leipzig.  How can that be?  I hear you ask.  The lag works both ways.  Analysis of Celtic still benefits from earlier signings, up until that of Nicolas Kuhn in January 2024, who left the premises this summer.  The full impact of the subsequent windows has not shown up yet.

Being “smartest” in the transfer window does not guarantee success, but it’ll outperform being thick, no matter how good your ‘exaggerated sense of grievance’ game is.

Looking in from the outside, it’s easy to say, ‘be more like Bloom’ (although not with that other stuff), but as many observers will note, getting this right is not easy.  What is easy, is to stick to the data.  Recognise what succeeds and what fails and always back your winning hand.  A lack of observance of this principle in football is quite astonishing.

Postscript: I looked down the list and eventually found Aberdeen, but after continuous scrolling I ran out of patience trying to find another Scottish club.  Looks like Bloom’s magic touch has yet to hit Hearts.

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388 Comments

  1. Any info on the roles or not of Stevie Woods Shaun Maloney Mark Fotheringham Gavin Strachan and Stephen McManus?

  2. Video Evidence and Basis for Targeting Green Brigade: Police Scotland argued they were forced to use their emergency stop and search powers against the Green Brigade based on helicopter footage which they believed showed:

     

    • Fans in possession of offensive weapons (knives).

     

    • Fans in possession of pyrotechnics and potentially attempting to conceal them.

     

    The footage took a long time to load during the meeting. When viewed:

     

    • The only visible potential offensive weapon was a knife being used to cut holes in a flag. PQ noted this appeared to be normal use and, in all likelihood, the knife was returned to a car or the nearby pub and that there was no evidence to suggest it was taken to the match. Police argued that they had to intervene for public safety.

     

    • Fans were also seen placing items under their shirts within the helicopter footage. PQ suggested these looked like they could be banners, while police suggested that they could have been pyrotechnics. There was other footage of supporters potentially in possession of pyrotechnics.

     

    • PQ noted that before almost every match between Celtic and Rangers at Celtic Park in recent years, a crowd has left the same vicinity travelling towards the stadium, often letting off pyrotechnics. He argued that the police in previous occasions appeared to have taken a pragmatic approach to crowd management, focusing on ensuring the crowd made their way into the stadium. He did not believe this set of circumstances was different to these previous matches.

     

    • Emma Croft argued that pyrotechnics are never safe, and they had a duty to intervene. She also suggested that she and the fan representative had very different views on what constituted a threat to public order, which the fan representative agreed.

     

    • Police said that from the footage, they sought to stop and search between 20-30 people from the helicopter video, but wider use of the Section 60 powers justified targeting the group as “art and part” – i.e., treating the whole group as collectively responsible because they were acting as a unit.

     

    • Police noted that fans refused to comply and the crowd refused to engage with officers on the ground.

     

    • Police stated those not with the Green Brigade were told they were allowed to leave the containment. PQ noted that fans were typically wary about leaving any group of supporters isolated around the police given the lack of trust that exists.

     

    • Around 150–200 supporters were eventually searched.

     

    • PQ asked how many offensive weapons were found as part of these searches, Police Scotland responded that none were found.

     

    • Police showed a further clip of fans burning material after the kettle formed, which they argued demonstrated how difficult things were for officers managing the situation. EC asked PQ to condemn supporter behaviour. PQ declined, stating that this was not the purpose of the meeting, but rather to examine policing decisions and processes.

  3. Club–Police Relationship and Pre-Planning: Michael Nicholson attempted to move the discussion from why Section 60 was used toward wider themes and the questions raised by Fairhurst.

     

    • MN asked directly whether Celtic had colluded with Police Scotland in pre-planning the operation.

     

    • Police Scotland stated Celtic did not collude and were not informed that fans would be detained in this way.

     

    • Police accepted that communication with the club should have been better, especially so that Celtic could inform supporters of likely disruption.

     

    Communication Failures and Impact on Supporters: It was acknowledged that traffic disruption and the closure of London Road had primarily been communicated via the Celtic SLO’s Twitter account. All parties accepted this was insufficient, and there was agreement that official club channels must be used for any future alert with significant impact on supporters’ travel.

     

    Treatment of Supporters Within Kettle:

     

    • Police said they wanted to release containment as soon as possible, and that this depended on completing Section 60 searches, however fans were largely non-compliant.

     

    • PQ cited data gathered by fans prior to the meeting: 184 supporters were searched, but only 34 were issued receipts, despite receipts being a legal requirement of stop and search under Section 60.

     

    • 39 people had everyday items confiscated – including hats, sunglasses, scarves and keffiyehs. Most had no receipt, no reference number, and no way of getting items back. Eight months on, no person has had their items returned.

     

    • Police acknowledged receipts should have been provided but suggested this was a logistical issue, saying receipts were issued retrospectively based on names and addresses taken at the time.

     

    • PQ asked how receipts could be issued retrospectively, to which an officer replied that they were sent out to people’s home addresses. PQ asked how police obtained this information, and police responded that they were provided during the searches.

     

    • PQ pointed out that providing a name and address is not a legal requirement under Section 60 and questioned why it appeared that officers demanded this information.

     

    • Police denied doing so, suggesting this information was provided voluntarily, although PQ stressed that multiple testimonies state otherwise.

     

    • PQ argued that these inconsistencies and failures explain why supporters were reluctant to comply with police orders to begin with. He also noted that this incident has further eroded trust between fans and Police Scotland.

     

    Conduct of Officers and Allegations of Antagonism: On the question of police behaviour:

     

    • Police representatives argued that officers faced significant challenges on the day. The present officer stated he had “never been more proud” of his colleagues, regarding how they conducted themselves on the day in question.

     

    • PQ contrasted this with the 73 qualitative accounts in the Fairhurst Inquiry describing officers as aggressive, provocative, escalating tensions, and intimidating supporters.

     

    • PQ also shared his own experience of leaving the match at half-time to observe the kettle, where he says an officer poured a beer over his foot and then tried to grab him when he reacted. • Police Scotland maintained that while some supporters disliked the policing approach, that did not mean it was overly aggressive, and they did not accept this characterisation of events.

     

    Differential Treatment of Home and Away Fans:

     

    • Police insisted that away supporters were not treated differently, arguing they complied with searches and so were not contained.

     

    • If the Green Brigade containment was apparently justified by the helicopter footage, it was asked why Rangers supporters were kettled, given no similar footage was cited for them.

     

    • Police said Rangers fans were contained because of face coverings. PQ argued that wearing face coverings alone does not justify being kettled, and that as a point of principle, football supporters should not be subjected to this treatment.

     

    Closing:

     

    • PQ noted that the Celtic Fans Collective would like to see the SLO being involved more in pre-match security discussions to represent the views of supporters.

     

    • PQ indicated that Police Scotland should apologise for their treatment of supporters. No such apology was offered.

     

    • PQ requested that confiscated items be returned to fans, accompanied by a letter of apology. Police Scotland representatives agreed to this.

     

    • PQ asked MN and Celtic representatives whether they felt Police Scotland’s actions were lawful and proportionate. MN replied that this was an ongoing conversation and indicated he was not willing to answer that at this stage.

     

    • PQ noted that the Celtic Fans Collective expect the club to take a position on the treatment of its own supporters.

     

    • PQ highlighted the contrast between the club’s swift willingness to act against its own supporters in other matters, versus its reluctance to criticise Police Scotland even in the face of substantial evidence. MN did not commit to a change of stance at the meeting.

     

    • PQ concluded by stating given Police Scotland’s admission that the club can have input when Section 60 powers are sought, Celtic should adopt a default position of opposing Section 60 applications related to Celtic matches unless provided with specific, overwhelming evidence that such powers are necessary.

  4. “UK public health watchdog refuses to release covid vaccine data as it would anger the public if a link to harms were discovered.”

     

    https://expose-news.com/2025/11/17/uk-public-health-watchdog-refuses/

     

    ……

     

     

    Only saying.

     

    If the Government, Media, Big Pharma, etc, have done nothing wrong, then why can’t they tell the public how many excess deaths are because of the vaccines?

     

    If they have nothing to hide, then why are they all hiding?

     

    SINN FEIN and Snp are the worst liars here.

     

    We already knew that Lab/Lib/Con/Ref were all scum anyway, but for SF & Snp to join in with these scumbags is utterly unacceptable.

     

    And now the Government are pushing this stuff all over again, lying about every aspect of this scumbaggery, calling it the Flu again so that you will be less scared, so that innocent folk will be duped into a fkn genocide?

     

    Put it this way:

     

    If it was Catholics who owned the media, all western Parliaments, Big Pharma, and carried this out, what do you think would happen to them?

     

    The NHS is controlled by the big Pharma offshore USA companies.

     

    And who do you think owns them?

     

    Jeremy Corbyn in 2017 tried to open up a medical supplies company in UK to stop the NHS, buying from American big Pharma.

     

    Within weeks Corbyn was smeared as an anti-semite and his political career was over.

     

    In 2017 Corbyn was 2,000 votes away from being Prime Minister, United Ireland, Workers/Not/Bankers/Brexit/Deal was all ready to go.

     

    But.

     

    Hundreds of thousands of Celtic supporters in Scotland joined in with Krankie/Snp/Greens smearing Corbyn as Unionist Vermin, as well as an anti-semite, and shunned Corbyn and voted for Lying, Thieving, Degenerate, Women and Children hating, Snp/Greens.

     

    And now look at the state of the place!

     

    HH

     

    oot.

  5. CHAIRBHOY on 5TH DECEMBER 2025 2:35 PM

     

     

    I think it’s a little bit more complex than simple cause and effect.

     

     

    Your mate Bertrand Russell believed that the concept of a single isolated cause leading to a single effect with necessary connection is a “folk notion,” which is a brilliant thing.

  6. saint stivs

     

    December 5, 2025 5:02 pm

     

    saint stivs

     

     

    December 5, 2025 3:26 pm

     

    Overview of Meeting on Fairhurst Inquiry and Policing Operation 02 December 2025.

     

    Attendees:

     

    Celtic FC: Michael Nicholson (CEO), Mark Hargreaves (Head of Security), George Campbell (Head of Legal & Governance)

     

    Police Scotland: Chief Superintendent Emma Croft, Superintendent Derrick Johnston, Stevie (Commander on Matchday, surname not gathered).

     

    Supporters: Paul Quigley (Celtic Fans Collective)

     

     

    ———————

     

     

    I dont know what Paul Quigley does in real life but his ability to pick his way through the Fairhurst Inquiry report and the Policing is almost forensic in sticking to the points and getting the matters raised.

     

     

    CAP doffed to the fella, maybe the collective does have a figure-head after all.

     

     

    Now in contrast to that Rangers game versus the recent one at Hampden, I felt just through observation, that the policing operations were very different. Not low key at either, but more polite, and dare I say it almost a charm offensive.

     

     

    I sit in the upper main stand, I have watched absolute out their face rockets mis-behave there and often, and other than outright arrest, they get away with a lot of inappropriate actions.

     

     

    This time I decided not to take my seat, and instead stood at the tunnel, explaining to a steward, my poor knees couldnt take the climb up the sstairs, and indeed would be really sore if i sat down, Nigerian steward female, young, waif like, very polite, said no problem, just move back if the police come around.

     

     

    They did, 3 of them, 2 men and a woman, I explained why i was stanidn there and the steward had nothing to do with it. I said to the woman (poor assumption on my part) , tell your segeant there why I am standing about, she in turn told me politely, its me that is in charge of the whole south stand, it is my operation, pointed to the pips on her shoulder , I apoligiesed and she said something like this game should be over already, how many chances have we missed (no kidding).

     

     

    She volunteered she operates out of Dalmarnochk, she might be the person named above, I then told her about the first football park that the police station is build beside, and brother walfrids charity matches, she genuinely was interested, (I know I could bore for Scotland, but he ho, they are human). At that they got a radio message and too off with an “enjoy the match hopefully”.

     

     

    Sometime later in extra time, a big tall and aggresive heid the ba came up the tunnel, running in and out with each chance we made, flaing arms, kicking walls, and just being a pest, The Nigerian was scared witless, and actully went away.

     

     

    So anyways it is the actions of some that ends up with over-policing for the massive.

  7. still makes me laugh

     

     

    and now englands group

     

     

    england

     

    lapland

     

    melchester rovers

     

    me and my mum

  8. Prestonpans bhoys on

    Infantino on now, he’s not getting that much of a clap. probably because they know he’s an arse.

  9. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    “my Tony Bloom man-crush has faded a little this week”

     

     

    🤣🤣🤣

  10. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Not bad Paul.

     

     

    Genuine question.

     

     

    Is the phrase…

     

     

    … “there’s more than one way to skin a cat”

     

     

    …still socially acceptable?

     

     

    A significant root cause of our problems in the last 3 windows is easily identifiable.

     

     

    Celtic employees were simultaneously trying to skin the same cat two different ways …

     

     

    … inevitably the outcome wasn’t pretty.

     

     

    Now that one of the protagonists of one of the two different ways has left Celtc … the quality of the process should improve

     

     

    IF … his successor signs up to the model, of course.

     

     

    PS – the above pertains to doing the thing right, not necessarily doing the right thing.

     

     

    Nor does it make any moral inference about those involved in either of the two ways, rather just a logical one.

  11. Prestonpans bhoys on

    I switched over to pointless, more sense on there, will come back when the actual draw happens!

  12. Trump and Infantino should have read Mark Twain, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”

  13. Kev Racist

     

     

    There is the racist scumbag sooking his fleg and spewing it’s vomit

     

     

    Today kevracist is wishing he voted for a real socialist Corbyn instead of the millionaire grifter and you tube krank Galloway.

     

     

    Yup hundreds of thousands of Labour voters shifted due to no restrictions on markets or banks.That meant kevdimple that ordinary folk paid as bank debt aas nationalised,how very Blair but not socialism.

     

     

    Since then kev racist every Scottish government has operated with nodebt. ps ya banger its illegal to overspend..

     

     

    While at it,the Scottish govt has no say in contracts with the m.o.d for zionist entities,all money subsidising that contract is Westminster funded.all defence spending is from Westminster.

     

    You gullible sap

     

    Maybe your grifter needs a twenty instead of a ten.

     

     

    Better hurry that Deform party will soon cut yir benefits.

  14. Do you think DD chose the recipient of the FIFA peace award? Or was there a process that infantino used? We know Dermot doesn’t bother with process.

  15. lets all do the huddle on

    makes me sick watching this corrupt shite.

     

     

    or that maybe the pints 🍺🍺🍺

  16. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    Jeez, including platitudes and sundry BS, the draw for the rugby world cup the other day was done and dusted in half an hour.

  17. vale bhoy on 5th December 2025 5:39 pm

     

    Trump and Infantino should have read Mark Twain, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”

     

    ______

     

    Spot on. Pathetic show. Trump desperate to get the Nobel prize next year. Surely never.

  18. Celtic40me @ 4:43 pm,

     

     

    The concept of causality is pretty well established I’d argue…

     

     

    Hail Hail

  19. Back to Basics – Glass Half Full @ 5:29 pm,

     

     

    With all due respect, that is totally nonsensical.

     

     

    If our transfer strategy wasn’t followed by Brendan Rodgers, how come we are in the top twenty of that table?

     

     

    Ange didn’t sell many high value players during his tenure.

     

     

    In fact the money for Ange’s transfer windows came from the sale of Frimpong, Eduardo and Ajer – 40 mn

     

     

    Of course after Ange left several of his players were then sold for good monet such as Jota.

     

     

    In fact over 130 mn pounds worth of players were sold during Brendan Rodgers tenure.

     

     

    So from January 2021…

     

     

    Ajer and Eduardo a major part of the initial sales..

     

     

    Then 130 mn in player sales during Brendan Rodgers tenure.

     

     

    The squad when Brendan Rodgers left had cost a total of 52 mn and was worth over 120 mn.

     

     

    That means a lot of the heavy lifting for the 19 th place in…

     

     

    “the world’s smartest clubs on the transfer market since January 2021 in terms of the financial balance sheets of players recruited”

     

     

    …was undertaken by….

     

     

    Drum roll….

     

     

    ….Brendan Rodgers.

     

     

    So could you please explain to me, which part of the strategy he was not compliant on?

     

     

    Hail Hail

  20. The seeds for authoritianism and control were firmly planted during lockdown.

     

     

    You were forewarned ” Be wary. be very wary.”

     

     

    HH.

  21. Chairbhoy

     

     

    On FSR: What was meant by the Celtic statement of 6th Sept could have been conveyed better to illustrate any high spend on a players wages under 24/25 accounts on a 3 year contract when football earnings were at their highest, would have to take into consideration its impact in subsequent years when earnings are lower.

     

     

    To attract a higher standard of player and more than 1 would be needed would mean from the 2027 Licening cycle the gap between FSR compliance would drop as earnings will be lower.(assuming our better players are not sold to boost football earnings.)

     

     

    Due diligence to ensure too high a spend now would not lead to future problems makes FSR compliance a reason to check future impact, not an excuse to justify the recruitment failings this year.

     

     

    That was a meaning given to the Sept mention of FSR on social media because Swiss Rambler only looked at latest accounts and did not project forward as Celtic execs had to do.

     

     

    FSR and squad cost ratio will always be a factor to consider when setting the wage ceiling for next 5 years to establish the player wage spending limit in each accounting period.

     

     

    It is a good example of Celtic saying something but a different meaning being applied to it because of different levels of understanding between the guys who are doing the job, who make the mistake of thinking their audience are at same level of understanding of FSR as they are.

     

     

    Once that is absorbed the accountability question would be.

     

     

    ‘You could have spent to The FSR ceiling X but stopped at Y.

     

     

    Can shareholders be told the reasons?’

     

     

    No accusations, no judgement of motivations that damage trust just an opportunity to hear the other persons’ reasons for doing what they did or did not do.

  22. For me the 2024 summer transfer window was a huge success…the team were bouncing…we got 12 points in the champions league and ran BM very close with some exceptional football in Munich

     

    Trusty is playing like a 6-10 million centre half ( peanuts nowadays) and we will make a profit easily on Engels.

     

    That doesn’t mean players will not go in and out of form …heck even Yang is doing us a turn !!!….not heard much of Kwon lately mind

  23. Aff oot FSR debate zzzzzzz

     

     

     

    UEFA’s Financial Sustainability Regulations (FSR) replace Financial Fair Play (FFP) with a focus on a squad cost ratio (70% of revenue cap on wages, transfers, agent fees by 2025/26), strict “no overdue payables” rules (payments to clubs, employees, tax due quarterly), and allowing for higher permitted losses (€60m over 3 years) covered by owner equity to encourage stability and investment, creating a more revenue-based financial control system for European clubs.

     

     

     

    Explainer: UEFA’s new Financial Sustainability regulations

     

     

    UEFA.com

     

    https://www.uefa.com › news-media › news › 0274-14…

     

    7 Apr 2022 — The new regulations have three distinct pillars: the no overdue payables rule, the football earnings rule, and the squad cost rule. The changes …

  24. PROBLEMS WITH FSR

     

     

    The introduction of a spending cap for all European clubs related to revenue will be seen as a broadly positive move and allows clubs to spend within their means.

     

     

    But, ultimately, it means that rich clubs can spend with relative impunity and the smaller clubs will still be unable to compete on anything like a level playing field.

     

     

    It may indeed mean that clubs remain solvent – the initial idea behind FFP – but it still refuses to address the issue of the elite clubs – the ones that sought to form a Super League just over a year ago – that have a massive competitive advantage over the remainder of the teams.

     

     

    And that’s before we get to the complexity of club sponsorship, which can easily be exploited. Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, in particular, have numerous partners which are directly correlated to the gulf states that own them, and have been able to negotiate deals which, on paper, appear advantageous.

     

     

    Furthermore, it’s increasingly difficult to track salaries and other additional payments to players which may be kept ‘off the books’ as those are the deals that could be facilitated through a sponsor, a shell company or a third party.

     

     

    The full impact of these regulations won’t be felt until the end of the grace period for squad cost rules comes into effect in 2026. But even then, these don’t feel like the supposed leveller that they were meant to be.

  25. So much money washing around FIFA and the best they could come up with is Rio Ferdinand to host the main part of the draw?

  26. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Chairbhoy @ 6:03pm.

     

     

    Cheers.

     

     

    I intentionally did not refer to the linked article and its so called “table of smart clubs”

     

     

    (If someone overlaid transfer profits to turnover ratio AND trophies won onto the table’s simple singular metric ? …

     

     

    … I think we might get some indicator of smartness.

     

     

    My observation was more simple.

     

     

    3 transfer windows Paul mentioned.

     

     

    Summer was atrocious in almost every aspect

     

     

    January was forgettable … literally.

     

    (I can’t remember what business we did. Schlupp maybe?)

     

     

    Last summer was effective in the short term but expensive and not sustainable as an annual event.

     

     

    … Although – to be clear – I advocated previously, and still hold the view ..

     

     

    … that the manager should be allowed to spend big (Brendan’s way) every 30 to 36 months or so …

  27. Anyone remember our last wholly successful interim manager?

     

    From memory…

     

    3 games

     

    3 wins

     

    3 clean sheets??