Smart clubs and following the data

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Success in football is determined by a number of matters: the ability of the manager, players performing at the right level, injuries and sheer luck, and in Scotland, a club’s determination to influence officials with an exaggerated sense of grievance.  Apparently.

But transfer business has an even greater impact than dodgy penalties.  This is one area Celtic need to get right over the next two windows.  Our performance, not just in the summer window, but across our last three transfer windows has been poor.  There is often a lag in outcomes before the impact of a window is felt.  The £32m spent in the summer of 2024 failed to see many minutes on the pitch a year later, during Champions League qualification, for example.

The CIES Football Observatory published their survey of the “world’s smartest clubs on the transfer market since January 2021”.  Tony Bloom has two clubs in the top 10: Brighton (2nd) and Union SG (8th); I’m sure he didn’t bet on that outcome (my Tony Bloom man-crush has faded a little this week).

The top 20 has some lessons for us: Atalanta, Napoli, Bologna, Udinese and Lecce, demonstrate how well the medium-to-small Italian clubs have figured out how to progress.  Is it surprising so many young Scottish players have bounced after moving there?

Benfica are there, as are Feyenoord, but not Ajax.  The Amsterdamers beat Celtic to the signing of €12m striker Kasper Dolberg in the summer, which traumatised many of us.  Dolberg has returned one goal in all competitions since, a consolation in a defeat to Excelsior.  Not that the lad’s had much of a chance, his only appearances have been off the bench.

The Ajax-Dolberg-Celtic tale says so much about where we were in the summer.  Unable to attract a player who cannot get a game at a team woefully underperforming this season.  There are so many reasons why we should not have wasted time on this exercise, it scarcely needs explaining.

Celtic are 19th in the table, between Manchester City and Leipzig.  How can that be?  I hear you ask.  The lag works both ways.  Analysis of Celtic still benefits from earlier signings, up until that of Nicolas Kuhn in January 2024, who left the premises this summer.  The full impact of the subsequent windows has not shown up yet.

Being “smartest” in the transfer window does not guarantee success, but it’ll outperform being thick, no matter how good your ‘exaggerated sense of grievance’ game is.

Looking in from the outside, it’s easy to say, ‘be more like Bloom’ (although not with that other stuff), but as many observers will note, getting this right is not easy.  What is easy, is to stick to the data.  Recognise what succeeds and what fails and always back your winning hand.  A lack of observance of this principle in football is quite astonishing.

Postscript: I looked down the list and eventually found Aberdeen, but after continuous scrolling I ran out of patience trying to find another Scottish club.  Looks like Bloom’s magic touch has yet to hit Hearts.

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388 Comments

  1. When Kev J post about football it’s always worth a read the rest of the time it’s the same boring sh-t nobody gives a toss about.

  2. I think we are getting a bit mixed up regarding facts and opinions.

     

     

    An opinion is not a fact. An opinion is only a personal belief or judgement by a poster that does not necessarily have to be based on evidence or documentation.

     

     

    In many instances we don’t have any bona-fide facts. Eg; Why or how BR et al departed .

     

     

    What if JK was told he was finished by BR via a phone call ? Hmmm.

     

     

    And I nominate BRRB’s for being the blogs most informative poster cited for services to travel and hospitality. 🍹🍺🍾

     

     

    HH.

  3. ” Greenpinata on 5th December 2025 10:06 pm

     

    And I nominate BRRB’s for being the blogs most informative poster ”

     

     

    He is certainly informs us which pub he`s in and what he is drinking !

     

     

    `night all .

  4. Reading back about Tounekti”s ‘body lingo’ being poor – I thought the opposite in the clip I saw.

     

     

    When Wilf was greeting the players I saw Seb smiling; mibby as if something Wilf said amused or tickled him.

     

     

    He’s an exciting young winger who will improve under world class coaching here at Celtic.

     

     

    So on the basis of the clip I saw – and Seb’s innate talent – I won’t yet be flying to Scotland to drive him to the airport myself. HH

  5. Maolmuire O Muirgheasa on

    Triggering Operation = Successful.

     

     

    The Reaction is the Reward.

     

     

    Your outrage is part of the script.

     

     

    Recognize the bait.

     

     

    Outrage = engagement = success.

     

     

    Wise up.

  6. Not long in from the boozers and aw sentimental and nat…..watched highlights of 67, i’m now greetin’ wi joy. What a lucky person i am to be a Celtic supporter and all of 68 years and hopefully more.

  7. Maolmuire O Muirgheasa @ 10:45 pm,

     

     

    “It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world… but for the PLC Board?”

     

     

    Hail Hail

  8. MOM

     

     

    When someone says something on a subject I disagree with because it lacks knowledge, I usually respond.

     

     

    I think that is the right thing to do.

     

     

    No bat signal needed.

     

     

    There is a huge difference between FFP and FSR.

     

     

    Im trying to explain what it is without pasting the UEFA rules to those who want to know what dictates how Celtic behave.

     

     

    From that Ive gone on to your question about why cash in the bank?

     

     

    I went further. It should not be me having to deal with the shit that my explanatios cause, it should be Celtic.

     

     

    The Collective want similar answers but their is no chance of getting it given the approach taken.

     

     

    It has had the opposite effect.

     

     

    Not clever.

     

     

    Celtic have doubled down on misinformation that harms them.

  9. THE BLOGGER FORMERLY KNOWN AS GM on 5TH DECEMBER 2025 10:20 PM

     

    “An opinion is not a fact. An opinion is only a personal belief or judgement by a poster that does not necessarily have to be based on evidence or documentation.”

     

     

     

    Indeed. Only an idiot would say this on record without evidence or documentation:

     

     

     

    https://www.celticfc.com/news/2025/october/27/statement-from-dermot-desmond-to-celtic-supporters/

     

     

    ……….

     

     

    I suspect the evidence cannot be limited to a few BR comments to the press but who knows in the world of football full of nepotism and nutters.

     

     

    HH

  10. Chairbhoy on 5th December 2025 8:56 pm

     

     

    I agree but the same policy worked to produce the team that gave Bayern a game.

     

     

    What changed this tear?

     

     

    I reckon it was a return to the days of having to qualify for the CL before recruiting.

     

     

    As there was no risk to qualiying players were recruited knowing the only risk was not winning the title over 38 games.

     

     

    You and I and others were on CQN back in qualifying days complaining about the same thing that has been a major cause of complaint since September, which was failure to strengthen before CL qualifiers.

     

     

    I dont remember when we first did not have to qualify in recent times, but I remember the howls when Lincoln Red Imps beat us in Gibraltar although we beat them at home.

     

     

    Others might remember better how we fared in that year.

     

     

    So what has changed is having to qualify and what reduces the risk of not qualifying?

     

     

    Better coefficient points.

     

     

    How to get more? Win or draw games.

     

     

    Where is it easier to amass coefficient points, CL or EL?

     

     

    Where are we now?

     

     

    The EL so lets get behind the team to get as many EL points as possible and earn enough coefficient points to minimise the risk Celtic are not prepared to take to budget for CL.

     

     

    If that mob can reach an EL final why can we not win it and emulate Porto?

     

     

    Lets bloom and enjoy where we are planted ffs.

  11. Auldheid on 5th December 2025 11:57 pm

     

    “Lets bloom and enjoy where we are planted ffs.”

     

    ……

     

     

    So you are a plant – who knew. lol

     

    I coulddn’t resist.

     

    Whooz zooming who and all of that.

     

    Keep well Mr & Mrs Auldheid. God bless.

     

    HH

     

    oot.

  12. Back to Basics - Glass Half Full on

    Auldheid @ 11:57pm

     

     

    With you on that.

     

     

    Scottish Champions this season go into the Play Off round next August.

     

     

    (National 5-year coefficients lag a year behind. Scotland was 14th at end of last season)

     

     

    No reprieve the following year. The inevitable dropping off of Scotland’s coefficient has already started and won’t be reversed for years.

     

     

    If Celtic win the league (big IF) we have a better chance of being seeded in the PO round.

     

     

    … as we’ve just had a stinker of a year – 20/21, 3.0 points – removed from our 5 year coefficient – replaced with 5.0 points already this season with (hopefully) more to come.

     

     

    Depends on who else makes it to the PO round of course …

     

     

    … but we can only take care of ourselves.

  13. Kev Jungle

     

     

    Well my granny owned a flower shop at top of Ross St in the Calton at the Barras.

     

     

    She got me a ticket for Real Madrid v Eintracht European Cup final in 1960.

     

     

    I was priviledged to see at ground level Gento Puskas and Di Stefano line up for a kick off after Eintracht scored.

     

     

    About 3 or 4 touches and Di Stefano runs through to score in reply.

     

     

    My favourite is Puskas header after Gento on other side of running track from me races up the wing and crosses.

     

     

    https://youtu.be/1pc1wBGnMDY?si=p1CtHtFFgE3mvhud

  14. When you open Pandoras box

     

     

    I think we are getting a bit mixed up regarding facts and opinions.

     

     

    Are we referring to oneself there Greenpinta ?

     

     

    What if JK was told he was finished by BR via a phone call ? Hmmm.

     

     

    Greenpinta from the same post on fact vs opinion is the above statement > fact, supposition, informed opinion or fooking mince

     

     

    Imagine the length of posts if all posters had to show the validity behind the opinion

     

     

    The longer/academic posts would have the advantage of keeping the grammar pendants busy

     

     

    Informed Opinion………… Expert Opinion…………. The reader decides

     

     

    An informed opinion is a viewpoint or judgment on a subject that is based on knowledge of facts, evidence, research, and careful consideration. It is distinct from a mere, potentially casual, opinion which might rely solely on limited personal experience or general beliefs without factual grounding.

     

    Key characteristics of an informed opinion include:

     

    Factual Basis: It is supported by relevant, verifiable facts and data.

     

    Evidence-Based Reasoning: The opinion relies on evidence rather than assumptions or biases.

     

    Critical Thinking: Forming an informed opinion involves the ability to think clearly and rationally, evaluate arguments, and identify the relevance and importance of ideas.

     

    Understanding Different Perspectives: A deeply informed opinion often requires the individual to have looked at the subject from various angles and sources, including those that might present counterarguments, to avoid confirmation bias.

     

    Expertise/Knowledge: While anyone can form an informed opinion through research, “expert opinions” are those from professionals with significant experience, expertise, and a broad industry view in a specific field.

     

    In essence, an informed opinion carries weight because the person expressing it has taken the commitment and work required to understand the complexities and nuances of the topic.

  15. CQN leader at the beginning of the hunt for a new Manager/Coach/Leader

     

    Fact or Opinion or Gaslighting

     

     

    How did those writing the column inches home in on Wilfreid ? so early in the process with apparently no leaks ? just a wild lucky guess so early I suppose

     

     

    CQN Leader

     

    Despite all the speculation that Wilfried Nancy would soon be crossing the Atlantic to take up the position, there is nothing close to an informed comment on the subject. Column inches appear to be feeding off each other. Nancy would have dismissed the circus around him had his representatives not been in dialogue over the position, but no one is getting information out of Celtic, Nancy or his club. Martin and Shaun’s successful domestic start have taken any urgency to appoint a permanent manager out of the equation. Celtic have more than one candidate to consider, it’s just that nothing has leaked from the club.

     

     

     

    For those ITK , as we need facts….

     

     

    When MN refers to “Celtic” being aware, just who exactly at Celtic was aware of Wilfried ?

     

    Aware for a long time ? who was aware for a long time ? considering Wilfreid has had a relatively short career whomever was aware was out of the blocks quickly

     

    Who carried out the investigation ? into Wilfried suitability

     

    Who made the decision ? The definitive yes/no on Wilfried appointment

     

     

     

    Celtic Chief Executive Michael Nicholson has provided details on the process of securing Wilfried Nancy as the new manager,(Wilfreid considers himself a leader) confirming that Nancy was the “number one candidate” from the outset of their search.

     

     

    Long-term Awareness: Celtic had been aware of Wilfried Nancy’s work and quality as a coach for a “long time” before the formal process began.

     

    Primary Target: When Brendan Rodgers resigned, Nancy was identified immediately as the top candidate who aligned with the club’s vision.

     

    Vision Alignment: The more the club investigated, the more they felt Nancy was a “perfect fit” due to his humble nature, integrity, and his alignment with the desired aggressive, attacking style of football.

     

    Negotiation Challenges: The process “took time” and faced challenges, specifically “significant resistance” from his previous club, Columbus Crew, who were determined to keep their highly-regarded coach. Celtic pushed hard to complete the process as quickly as possible.

  16. EKBHOY on 5TH DECEMBER 2025 11:44 PM

     

     

    Indeed. Only an idiot would say this on record without evidence or documentation:

     

     

    https://www.celticfc.com/news/2025/october/27/statement-from-dermot-desmond-to-celtic-supporters/

     

     

    Why was the statement issued IMO Denzel Washington has the answer

     

     

    “We live in a society now where it’s just first… We don’t care who it hurts, we don’t care who we destroy, we don’t care if it’s true. Just say it, sell it. Anything you practice you’ll get good at—including BS”.

     

     

    “If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read it, you’re misinformed.”

     

    Substitute Newspaper for CQN

  17. QUADROPHENIAN on 5TH DECEMBER 2025 10:29 PM

     

     

    40 years in dressing rooms training sessions as a player/coach/manager that was my observation on his body language

     

     

    Yang more direct, more goals, more assists, MON clearly agreed

     

     

    Never said I would drive him to the airport

     

     

    If Tounettki does indeed show that he is an exciting player with innate talent i’m happy to eat humble pie, he’s 23 not young in footballing terms

     

     

    However as MON stated the next manager might see it differently, clean slate for Tounettki and IMO if you want to impress here’s sage advice I was lucky to listen in on from a top professional to young players

     

     

    No matter what level of football you find yourself in as a young player, when senior experienced players are talking , keep your ears open, engage with your mind and eyes, drink it all in

     

     

    Time to get your pub entertainment outlined for the day

     

    Lyrics from the gods of rock

     

    and why not

     

     

    Aff oot

  18. LIONSROAR – ta for the reply.

     

    Over the years there’s been many a poster on here insisting such and such a player was a bad ‘un or wrong ‘un based on a tiny video clip. I think I remember Kris Ajer getting a roasting after smiling in the club gym ?

     

    I accept your hands-on experience at the fitba frontline, but Yang has been the very definition of mercurial at CP. Certainly hope he comes good; but during many game opportunities, Yang has looked disinterested or out of touch. Am glad he’s having a mini-revival under MoN but he’s a polarising player to supporters.

     

    Seb’s still very new to the club and so he deserves time to settle anaw.

     

    My airport joke was just that given I’m based in Australia; I was parodying the oft-used jape about an out of favour player.

     

    Enjoy yer oot; we got soaked oot watching a Pipe Band show here in regional Oz.

     

    Cliched but nostalgic.

  19. LIONROARS67

     

     

    “What if JK was told he was finished by BR via a phone call ? Hmmm”

     

    —-

     

    Not a fact, not an opinion. A reiteration of a conversation I was involved in.

     

     

    Probably mince, but you never know.

  20. 67 European Cup Winners on

    FWIW

     

    Credit where credit is due

     

    I enjoyed listening to Michael Nicholson on the Celtic TV Interview yesterday

     

    It was brief with no big news or surprises

     

    But at least he communicated with us supporters

     

     

    More of that please Michael – even if its bad news

     

     

    In my experience when you don’t communicate with your family and explain what’s going on you usually find yourself in the spare room

     

     

    67ECW

  21. Some interesting figures from MLS

     

    Wilfred Nancy was on about 300k a year at C Crew

     

    I can see the attraction from the directors point of view.

     

    I’d imagine the whole package for him and his assistants will be less than BRs wages alone.

  22. 67 European Cup Winners on

    Maestro on 6th December 2025 9:20 am

     

     

    Probably hiding in the spare room

     

     

    Maestro i am not arrogant enough to assume you have read any of my limited posts on here

     

    But I have been critical of the major players on our Board

     

    Their lack of communication and any sort of understanding about our (supporters) concerns is a crime

     

     

    But when he (eventually) gets in front of a camera to talk with us I think it’s a good thing

     

     

    Is this the start on Mr Nicholson including us supporters in his day job – God knows – I hope so

     

     

    But who knows

     

     

    67ECW

  23. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    “ The longer/academic posts would have the advantage of keeping the grammar pendants busy”

     

     

    Indeed.