Smart clubs and following the data

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Success in football is determined by a number of matters: the ability of the manager, players performing at the right level, injuries and sheer luck, and in Scotland, a club’s determination to influence officials with an exaggerated sense of grievance.  Apparently.

But transfer business has an even greater impact than dodgy penalties.  This is one area Celtic need to get right over the next two windows.  Our performance, not just in the summer window, but across our last three transfer windows has been poor.  There is often a lag in outcomes before the impact of a window is felt.  The £32m spent in the summer of 2024 failed to see many minutes on the pitch a year later, during Champions League qualification, for example.

The CIES Football Observatory published their survey of the “world’s smartest clubs on the transfer market since January 2021”.  Tony Bloom has two clubs in the top 10: Brighton (2nd) and Union SG (8th); I’m sure he didn’t bet on that outcome (my Tony Bloom man-crush has faded a little this week).

The top 20 has some lessons for us: Atalanta, Napoli, Bologna, Udinese and Lecce, demonstrate how well the medium-to-small Italian clubs have figured out how to progress.  Is it surprising so many young Scottish players have bounced after moving there?

Benfica are there, as are Feyenoord, but not Ajax.  The Amsterdamers beat Celtic to the signing of €12m striker Kasper Dolberg in the summer, which traumatised many of us.  Dolberg has returned one goal in all competitions since, a consolation in a defeat to Excelsior.  Not that the lad’s had much of a chance, his only appearances have been off the bench.

The Ajax-Dolberg-Celtic tale says so much about where we were in the summer.  Unable to attract a player who cannot get a game at a team woefully underperforming this season.  There are so many reasons why we should not have wasted time on this exercise, it scarcely needs explaining.

Celtic are 19th in the table, between Manchester City and Leipzig.  How can that be?  I hear you ask.  The lag works both ways.  Analysis of Celtic still benefits from earlier signings, up until that of Nicolas Kuhn in January 2024, who left the premises this summer.  The full impact of the subsequent windows has not shown up yet.

Being “smartest” in the transfer window does not guarantee success, but it’ll outperform being thick, no matter how good your ‘exaggerated sense of grievance’ game is.

Looking in from the outside, it’s easy to say, ‘be more like Bloom’ (although not with that other stuff), but as many observers will note, getting this right is not easy.  What is easy, is to stick to the data.  Recognise what succeeds and what fails and always back your winning hand.  A lack of observance of this principle in football is quite astonishing.

Postscript: I looked down the list and eventually found Aberdeen, but after continuous scrolling I ran out of patience trying to find another Scottish club.  Looks like Bloom’s magic touch has yet to hit Hearts.

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388 Comments

  1. HOT SMOKED @10 58

     

     

    Not from Glasgow but my wife was and lots of friends from their…..loved it thank you.

  2. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    AN TEARMANN

     

    6th May 1970 European Cup Final San Siro v Feyenoord :

     

    16th May 1981 European Cup Celtic Park 1st round 1st leg v Juventus

     

    Wim Jansen and Liam Brady played against Celtic and later,became managers, first time this occurred.

     

    Wishing you well AT.

  3. FAVOURITE UNCLE on

    BELFAST JOE if you are about; JACK AITCHISON just scored for EXETER.

     

     

    What did he and BARRY ROBSON both have in common playing for CELTIC

  4. BhoyjoeBelfast

     

     

    Thanks for that.

     

    And likewise hope all is well around Clonard

     

     

    HH

  5. Bhoyjoebelfast on

    FUncle youngest

     

    JA Youngest Celtic debutant.Barry Robson…..stumped.

     

    AT All well thanks.

  6. FAVOURITE UNCLE on

    Bhoyjoebelfast on 6th December 2025 4:48 pm

     

     

     

    Both scored with first kick of ball.

     

     

    JACK V MOTHERWELL.

     

     

    BARRY V DONS.{ I THINK }

  7. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland’s World Cup schedule🇺🇸

     

     

    🇭🇹 Haiti in Boston on June 13 @ 2am (UK time)

     

     

    🇲🇦 Morocco in Boston on June 19 @ 11pm (UK time)

     

     

    🇧🇷 Brazil in Miami on June 24 @ 11pm (UK time)

  8. Wilfried Nancy:

     

     

    ” “[It is a] quality team, quality players but they have to believe a little bit more in themselves.”

     

     

    I think that goes for the feelings of many of our fans re their belief ( or lack of) in our team`s quality.

  9. Prestonpans bhoys on

    Brazil has four time zones; the same; and +1,+2,+3

     

     

    So the miami 6pm is suited for their TV coverage, follow the money…..

  10. I’ve said for 5 years that Tav has carried this Sevco team and my pals all laugh at me and say he’s pash.

     

    He’s not playing tonight, ive just seen and I’ll put my reputation as a football expert on the line by saying….an absolutely rubbish Kilmarnock team (2 wins in 10) will beat them tonight.

     

    I actually bet a Desmond but I think the newhuns will be lucky to get that.

  11. The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on

    The awkward moment when Shortie can’t wait to mention “sack the board chants”, but say nothing about the Billy Boys and FTP and the Vatican.

     

     

    We live in strange times.

  12. Tounekti is brilliant potential. Has pace and trickery and can deliver a football. He can improve his goal scoring , cutting inside and curling into net. If and when he does that regularly – he is a 20m plus player. Don’t forget he’s already played a full season and running on reserve.

     

     

    If Nancy doesn’t work out – get the Motherwell manger into Celtic. They are playing confident fast attractive football ……….with a team wayyyyh below our quality. Why? Because they believe in the manager and now believe in themselves.

     

     

    Players and managers in Scotland can be good for Celtic. See big jock!

  13. I usually don’t think Clancy is biased. I just think he is a dreadful referee. Tonight he is definitely favouring Rangers.

  14. Burnley78,

     

     

    It’s well known the Ref’s favour them. There is no incompetence involved. It’s cheating but, now, the Assistants are coming into theeir own. Near impossible to criticise.

  15. You would need to go a long way,probably Turkey,to see worse officiating than this.

     

    At least the Turks got arrested.Clancy and the right side linesman.WTF.

  16. Some odd decisions, but you can’t get away from the fact that Killie aren’t very good. Their loose passing set up the goal.

  17. I just saw a replay of the own half offside. There’s a hun on the right touchline in his own half.