My friends in Celtic, the third domestic trophy returned to the boardroom earlier this month. We sit 14 points clear at the top of the league table, and with 20 games remaining, you can get 20/1 on Newco for the title and 750/1 on Aberdeen. Yet again, Celtic are not so much a sporting favourite, than an investment asset (this is not gambling advice!).
We have nine points after six games in the Champions League and could confirm qualification for the knockout round next month. The club reported record turnover for last season of £124.6m, with £77m in the bank.
Good performances in Europe contributed significantly to this calendar year seeing only two defeats in all competitions: a random 10-man loss at Hearts and an absolute drubbing at Dortmund. 2024 is the year that delivered more major trophies than defeats. This has never happened before and surely will never happen again.
The summer transfer window saw £31.2m spent on in-coming players, with a new high watermark of £11m splurged on Arne Engels. How easily we moved on from the loss of Jota and Matt O’Riley.
A new transfer window opens tomorrow, so before the madness gets underway again, recall the angry and entitled writers who despaired all summer at Celtic’s transfer activity. Their form is as consistent as Cameron Carter-Vickers, so you will hear from them again soon. Transfer business is skewed to the end of the window and is more complicated than many would have you believe.
2025 opens at Ibrox, where it is seldom easy. However, a Celtic defeat would not convince any of the 50,000 attendees that their ‘heroes’ are capable of catching the champions.
In February we had slipped behind Newco and were playing poorly. I was concerned the title would be lost, Newco would earn a Champions League lifeline and Celtic would plunge into disarray.
As it turned out, the Premiership, Scottish Cup and League Cup were all decided in pivotal games against Newco: 3-3 draw at Ibrox, the 1-0 Scottish Cup Final win and the penalty decider in the League Cup Final. All of these games could have gone the other way, and for a period, looked as though they would.
It is to Brendan Rodgers eternal credit that he knows how to win tight games. Marginal differences in the game at Ibrox were enough to change Scottish football history – and not just for last season. With £77m in the bank, Celtic would have coped with a second place finish, albeit, there would have been a trauma. Newco, however, were devastated by the consequences of only taking a point that day. They celebrated the passing of their last chance.
We are in the fortunate position to have a manager, players and entire club who collectively have the corporate experience to get the job done. As long as Celtic perform as they have been recently, we will dominate in Scotland and give a reasonable account of ourselves in Europe.
Some of us lived through the 90s, when Rangers were out of sight and Celtic were under-resourced. Always. We won the league in 1998, due to a random series of events, including signing a winger from Feyenoord, but that was a one-off. The next two seasons were a return to more of the same.
The rebirth of Celtic under Martin O’Neill had a compelling side story: the corporate disaster zone that was Rangers under the bombast of David Murray and his non-execs. They lost £35m in one season; Martin found himself battling against a dying empire.
Rangers acted as though their domination was guaranteed. Even our 1998 triumph was handled interestingly by Murray, saying “9 out of 10, not good enough”. The seeds of their downfall were writ large over their accounts and those of Murray International Holdings, for anyone who cared to read them.
Their domination was so overwhelming, it was almost impossible to get anyone to listen to reality back then. So let’s be clear:
Domination is good.
Generation(s) of Domination is great.
Ignore the fundamentals of business and you sow the seeds of downfall.
Celtic are successful domestically because we recruit well, we develop players well and we have elite level managers, coaches and sports scientists. There is, however, a gap between where we are and where we could be.
Brugge spent around half of what we spent on Arne on their most expensive summer signing and spent less overall than Celtic (in absolute and net terms). They have not and never will spend £9m on a player from the Norwich City bench.
Champions League qualification is coming your way quickly and we will be up against teams who work the way we did to find and develop Kuhn, Bernardo, Johnstone, Jota and our Japanese contingent. Celtic excelled in that space for over two years.
Looking back on Ange Postecoglou’s time, recruitment now appears to be his strong suit (he has no such controls at Spurs). Brendan is more of a master tactician. If we continue to scout players Brendan has watched or worked with, we will decline.
The players we sell for a profit in 2027 and 2028 should be signing targets in 2025. They need to have development potential and eventually leave a price several times higher. If we get this wrong, it is the chink in the armour our opponents need to become relevant again.
Our operating expenses for the year to 30 June, which excludes transfer fees, were £105m. That’s the cost of doing business at Celtic currently. You don’t need me to tell you what happens to our profitability if we fail to reach the Champions League.
We are not Oldco Rangers; the financial reserves are there to prevent a cataclysmic retrenchment in the event we run at a loss, but keeping the club profitable, improving the player trading model (good though it is, it still has a long way to go) and maintaining salary levels consistent with our income spectrum will determine if you ever get to celebrate 10-in-a-row.
No harm to Real Madrid, who have normalised winning the Champions League, but Celtic fans have the best role in football. Despite being pushed all the way, we get to win so many trophies, achieve our own level of joys in Europe, with remarkably few god days.
This was not always the case and it took God-level strategic planning to achieve. It cannot last forever, but a quarter of the way through this century there is no sign of a sunset. The 2024 title win was genuinely pivotal. Congratulations to everyone at the club who played a role in delivering yet again, often in the face of absurd hostility.
Have a great New Year, Paul.
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2024. What a year for the team.
Thinking of friends not here to celebrate the New Year.
Take care all.
HH!
Happy Hogmanay to all fellow Tims and family.
London fireworks tonight, weather permitting.
Paul67
“ Cataclysmic “ CSC
HH
A Happy New Year when it comes to all of the Celtic family world-wide.
Some of you are there already!
Best wishes from here in Germany.
HH
Gerry
A 3-3 defeat at Ibrox……fixed that for you Paul
GM- Clancy was clearly waiting on instructions from McLean, which added to the near 13 extra minutes…..
Seems like things are okay-ish, but if we can bring in Neil Critchley and fill the team with a bunch of 16 year olds from the Taiwanese fifth division we will really start flying!
Hoopy New Year from NZ to Paul67 and all of you on CQN. A healthy, happy and prosperous 2025 and may you not be disappointed. Hail Hail
Taurangabhoy
Captain Disappointed doubtful with a hamstring injury….
Hmmm
It has been an outstanding year. The majority of the team is of an experienced age. Ideal for developing exciting talents like Engels and. Bernardo. And it is this mix which has produced our most successful calendar year ever.
Despite the expensive transfer fees forked out we have traded at a surplus in 2024.
But money isn’t just made from trading players. The real money is made through success in Europe. To that end the likes of an ageing schmeichel has been invaluable. Points mean prizes in the form of even more cash windfall.
It is the mix of experience and potential which is crucial and the potential has to fit the needs of the team.
The scattergun approach of the 2023 summer transfer window in the hope one might be a diamond must never be repeated. To recover from that in the way we have is to the credit of the manager and his back room team.
I think the angst evident last January was driven by a tight title race and a bin fire transfer window from the previous summer. We still have plenty of work to do in moving Holm, Lagerbielke, Narocki, Palma and Yang on.
This January we’re in a much stronger position and can take our time.
I see the man that delivered us a double and that CL spot is still getting it tight over his transfer fee, maybe another goal at Ibrox will allow us to cut him some slack.
Happy new year to all.
Cataclysmic retrenchment is the new saving for a rainy day.
Áth bhlian faoi mhaise, mo chairde Celtic.
Happy New Year all.
Onwards we go to…..in a row.
Every Kyogo Celtic goal
あけましておめでとう 👍
@huddleboard
Good afternoon all from the Victoria Bar. Wild weather in old Glasgow Town today.
What a great time to be a Tim.
Never take it for granted.
Hail, Hail to all Celtic supporters.
A great man once said,
” To infinity,and beyond”
A great New Year to all,from a glorious sunny,( Where were you Xmas day,ya bassa)Turkey,where they go mental tonight celebrating..More guns fired than at The Alamo.
If the three ‘China’s’ play well, we will win.
Hoop Hoop Hooray
Well said.
Up for New Year at the Trossachs, weather is mental, winds down to 40mph!
Plenty of drink in the our caravan though 🍾🍷🍹🍻
bournesouprecipe on 31st December 2024 12:00 pm
Doesn’t matter what team you support VAR is the problem
All except one team Bourne? My belated take on what happened a few weeks ago is that this One team I refer to were upset by VAR because they deviated from the norm, ie they ‘normally’ made decisions that helped the One Team, but on that occasion failed to do so.
Or, to cut to the chase, the Hun was upset that the VAR which usually/always helped the Hun had failed to help the Hun on that occasion! (I might add that this season has IMO seen an apparent drop-off in VAR-aid to the Hun, most notably on non-existent penalties awarded to them when they most needed them and, specifically, on penalties awarded against them, which were so rare recently that they were heading for record-book status!)
Apart from that I concur with your observation – every team in the League (with one usual exception) should see VAR as a problem.
It’s Mrs EMERALDBEE’s birthday today so must sign-off CQN for the day, so I wish all CQNners (including your fine self BOURNE) the best for the New Year, starting tomorrow at the hate-fest venue.
Happy New Year to all!!
Ave Ave
A nice summary Paul of both the Chairman’s statement and the CEO’s annual review included in the June 2024 Annual Report. And why not?
Still would like to see a more detailed breakdown of the £105 mill Operating Expenses to June 2024 though. The only area where our main rivals matched us, though they lost £17 mill plus into the bargain. Speaking of development, we have in recent time developed a few of our own, Doak, Kelly and Vata without any financial gain, and any number of signings, unknown when they arrived and even less well known when they left, and usually at an unannounced loss. No holding the back page for the many, only for the few. The result of which, barring some notable exceptions is that net player trading is hardly a pot of gold recently. No no no, going back to O’Neill, Strachan, Lennon et al and now Rodgers, the real gold is achieving relative success in Europe, because as Sutton would tell you, (Willie not Chris) that’s where the money is.
BIGRAILROADBLUES on 31ST DECEMBER 2024 12:59 PM
Good afternoon all from the Victoria Bar. Wild weather in old Glasgow Town today.
———————————————————
Well done you, taking advice of the weather people to stay indoors!
An Dún on 31st December 2024 12:34 pm
“I see the man that delivered us a double and that CL spot is still getting it tight over his transfer fee, maybe another goal at Ibrox will allow us to cut him some slack.”
I think the transfer model and not the man himself is referenced in the article but having been sat in 120 for the last two games to let my son’s pal / nephew attend a game, he was getting some stick around me – Bambi on Ice being one of the nicer comments. Kenny would be a better option another?!
Pretty sure I saw goals/assists comparison of him and Kyogo (pre St J) that had him looking much more efficient per minute played; not that stats are the be all and end all.
QB
G’day and Happy New Year from a warm and windy Melbs town. What an age to be a Celtic fan !!
And P67 – happy Nagging Doubts Day to you too, mate.
What looked to be an article praising the entire club – and even Brendan – turned into a plate of sourish grapes.
This stuff Paul about Postecoglou being some kind of ‘eye for a player’ guru is a crocka.
He never splurged in Oz or Japan and his record at Spurs is patchy to say the least – see here:
https://www.thespurs.news/news/ange-postecoglou-tottenham-hotspur-signings/
Despite Paul’s gloominess on BRs methods I love what Brendan’s done for us and the players under his charge.
I do agree with you Paul on the lack of wisdom in spending 9mill on Adam; it’s – alarmingly – no’ quite happening on that front.
As GlassTwoThirdsFull on 31st December 2024 12:28 pm said:
Seems like things are okay-ish, but if we can bring in Neil Critchley and fill the team with a bunch of 16 year olds from the Taiwanese fifth division we will really start flying!
Again bhoys; thanks for being on this site and discussing all things Celtic. HH, HNY and night night!
Good summation Paul – a couple of points with which I could disagree – but they can wait till next year.
I wish Paul, everyone at Celtic and all who frequent CQN, a happy, healthy and peaceful New Year.
A very special mention for those we have lost in 2024. This will be a difficult time for the families – I hope all can find solace in their grief – “they may be gone from your sight, but never from your heart” HH
Brian Nugent -Woodhunchdog
Gerry Chambers- Ger57
Brian Mc Ginley -Ron Bacardi
Alex Mc Killop- Eurochamps67
Tony Gillespie- Setting free the bears.
All a big loss to CQN in ’24
God Bless them and their families.
Hail Hail
“A new transfer window opens tomorrow, so before the madness gets underway again, recall the angry and entitled writers who despaired all summer at Celtic’s transfer activity”
Paul67 — your memory fails you. The fact is it was directed at the recruitment guru Mark Lawwell who had wasted £20M of the clubs money in the previous 2 windows. He was subsequently put on gardening leave as he refused to walk for his failures. Hopefully his last signings are cleared out this window.
Also, you do a disservice to Brendan Rodgers calling him a master tactician but poor at recruitment— he spotted the duds he was given from ML in 5 mins. BR is the leader of Celtic — he manages the club. He is very articulate and outplays the media ( no need for Celtic to hire a Head of comms ). He leads the playing squad and connects to the fans.
His record against the 2 versions of the Ibrox club are the best of all managers in the clubs history (remarkable).
This time round we seeing a more determined and humble BR. More the velvet glove and the fist of steel. Also he is learned quickly from the Dirt mound setback. I hope he extends his contract…
Best wishes for 2025 and hopefully more balanced blogs around Brendan and the beancounters lot…
Excellent article, Paul.
All the very best to you and your family for 2025 and beyond.
Ronnie
Please add if i have omitted anyone of cqn
HH
Without that ex-Norwich forward we likely don’t win the league or Scottish cup last season. He has continued to contribute to our success albeit that he is behind kyogo in the starting queue. He is still only 23 years old so his best years are ahead of him. The champions league bounty is £50 million, how many projects do you need to develop and sell to get that type of money?
Celtic have been guily of overloading the squad with young guys at the expense of results, particularly in europe. We now have a nice balance in the core squad in terms of age profile. Learning from good pros is likely to benefit young guys with potential to max. their dvelopment. Identifying and spending more on higher level young guys should focus minds to identify the best young players we can get and to develop our own pathway for youth.
As an aside, folk always talking about wasted money on the academy without return. We have lots of guys who are currently in our 1st team squad who came through the academy and offered great service and lots of the highly rated kids those kids who have moved on such as doak, vata and Kelly bring in nominal fees (between 350k and 550k) + 5%, which all future sales all add up.
Emerald @ 1.20
“ They don’t like it up em Captain Mainwaring “
The Sevco hubris is based on a grievance that like them, doesn’t exist in the manner in which Rainjurz did. When something like VAR comes along it will sometimes create a different decision, or a different conclusion to the one they think they are automatically entitled to. For example they can’t understand the decision where a goalkeeper is pushed, annd the goal is chalked off, unless of course it’s their goalkeeper?
I think there are three separate problems,
A) the big picture of constantly redefining football rules
B) VAR in worldwide football
C) Sevco
In Scotland as Celtic supporters we tend towards “ *** with a whistle” and just when you thought it was bad with one referee, we’ve now got another *** in a VAR room. Times are changing, after 30 years of a generally very well run Celtic, and a more level than it was, playing field.
Hoopy New Year 🇮🇪
McPhail Bhoy 1.24
I’m not going back out to that if I can help it.🤣
Another dreary New Years Eve.
Sean South of Garryowen.
AT,
Such a sad list.
YNWA
BSR 12:58
What a joyful 15 mins of Kyogo magic.
Thank you for posting.