My friends in Celtic, in the corresponding article a year ago I put our chances of losing the league as high as 30%. The rational behind this was:
- Newco were actually closer to us than the league table indicated and I expected them to improve,
- Teams have a shelf life and that (winning) Celtic squad looked to be nearing the end.
- It is by no means down to this alone, but I wrote, “If the virus gets into the Celtic squad, we will not win the league.” It did and we didn’t.
What I did not expect was the scale of the collapse. In my Celtic supporting experience, it is only eclipsed by season 1977-78, when a double winning Celtic team finished trophy-less, fifth in the league and out of Europe.
So where did it go wrong? I think we can go as far back as Brendan Rodgers not being released from his contract in August 2018 to allow him to go to China. The writing was on the wall then, so when he found a club that would both pay him a huge contract and meet the release terms on his Celtic deal, we should have been better prepared.
Let’s be clear: Neil Lennon did brilliantly taking over from Brendan. He kept the ship afloat, delivered the league and Scottish Cup, under the circumstances, that was an outstanding return. However, I doubt if even Neil himself believes he was wise to take the job permanently. This was a mistake by Neil, his advisors and most of all, by Celtic.
Objectively, what followed in season 2019-20 flies in the face of this assertion. Despite our customary Champions League qualification debacle, we finished ahead of Lazio and Rennes to top our Europa League group. The League Cup was won in memorable, if not convincing, style, nine-in-a-row was delivered, and when the Scottish Cup Final was eventually played, the quadruple treble.
It was as though the muscle memory at the club got us through that season but we all saw Newco boss us at Celtic Park. The portents were clear.
Should Neil have been relieved of his duties in October, when it was evident we were such a shambles on the field, despite winning all five trophies he competed for at that stage? Probably, but that question is all about who would come in to replace him. John Kennedy as an interim was not necessarily going to change direction. When Neil eventually left the building in February, our season was shot to pieces and he endured torrid months.
A clean break in February should have been a huge advantage, you get months to prep for the new season. Most of that time was wasted on a failed pursuit of Eddie Howe. Ange Postecoglou was sitting by his phone waiting on the call, had he been offer the position when Howe’s agent floated the first curve ball at Easter, we may still be in the Champions League. This was also a mistake.
So where are we now? If we go on to qualify for the Europa League group stage, last night’s defeat will have no more bearing on Celtic than the Lincoln Red Imps game in Gibraltar that started the Brendan Rodgers era. We were never going to reach the Champions League group stage this season through the League Route.
Our primary objective is to win the league; on the back of Wednesday night’s evidence, we look well short. There are, however, reasons to Park the Panic for a few weeks. We have spent over £12m on three players, only the cheapest of whom, 19-year-old Liel Abada, has played. Carl Starfelt (26) and Kyogo Furuhashi (also 26) are now available for selection, they will improve defence and attack.
We will sign a goalkeeper and a right back. Odsonne Edouard and Boli Bolingoli are almost certain to move on, both will be replaced and bring in enough cash to recruit for other areas of the team. I hope Ryan Christie extends his current deal, but if he goes, Ange has more scope to shuffle his pack.
This degree of player turnover should have happened a year ago. It didn’t because of that fabled record. I believe that without that looming milestone, Neil Lennon would also have gone last summer.
The decision to keep the squad together last year was thought less risky than undertaking significant change, especially with international travel restricted for most of the year and football curtailed, limiting, and in some circumstances eliminating, scouting opportunities. Faced with a choice between keep what you have or buy blind, Celtic chose the former (with a goalkeeping exception). Despite your hindsight, you would have made the same decision then.
We do not have a contemporary reference for the level of squad turnover that is currently underway. The only historical equivalent is 1997, when an equally chaotic summer thrust the club forward, coincidentally, when we broke the mould and looked for a manager with experience in Japan.
Despite the toll the pandemic placed on Celtic’s finances, the club is structurally strong. It has excellent long-term commercial deals that continue to perform, healthy ticket sales and a valuable squad that can be traded. We were always going to emerge from this crisis battered but not broken.
The same is not true at Ibrox. Newco need Champions League money this season, in losing the league, we opened a door for them to escape the consequence of Uefa Financial Fair Play. I bored you with the details on this before so will be brief here.
Newco have run a persistent operating loss since their formation in 2012, most recently reported at around £1m per month – and that was pre-pandemic. They are out of FFP road, only Champions League money will prevent a collapse. New investors cannot help here, for FFP, spend must be balanced by football generated income.
What happens in their qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.
Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns, but despite the recent hit to finances, I expect the club to sanction a larger spend this summer than has ever happened at a Scottish football club. We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead.
The hurt of missing the 10 will last forever, or at least, until we get close enough to dream again. It is now part of our narrative. I hope we will look back on the experiences of season 2020-21 as a touchstone, the harsh lesson that propelled us forward.
Enjoy your Celtic and continue to take care.
Paul67.
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I’m looking forward to watching the game tonight, heading into town to meet some good tims. Just a little concerned I may be watching it through my fingers. The games at tynecastle are often the best of the season.
Ref choice is worrying 😟. His take on what is a foul is bizarre at times.
TURKEYBHOY on 30TH JULY 2021 9:52 PM
True, I made the same point about Wilson yesterday. He’s been at least as, if not more important for them than Slippy and Beale.
Someone made the point about how hands-on Abramovich is at Chelsea but the difference is, he knows what he doesn’t know.
Marina Granovskaia was appointed to oversee transfers and do the hiring and firing. Most clubs today, if they don’t have a DoF, they’ll have a Sporting Director. Someone in this role would’ve instantly spotted that we need sports scientists and to get them in for pre-season….not for Ange to point it out on the day of the big kick-off.
For me, Ange getting a few players in will help the team improve results but my concern is that the change of infrastructure that is badly needed isn’t happening.
ERNIE LYNCH on 31ST JULY 2021 8:11 AM
The Board and the team didn’t decide to replace BR and his entire back up staff with NFL, on his own. That decision was made by one man. And it wasn’t a man who was desperate to win the 10.
——
I follow your reasoning with regard to this shambles that we are having to endure. I know that many Celtic people took offence with the ‘golf interview’ that DD gave a few years back in which he was ‘complimentary’ to the Ibrox club. Can we really be surprised that our de facto owner, well-known in international business circles, did not choose to ‘tear a strip off’ our biggest rivals?
I think we can put all that down to nothing more than a PR exercise.
On the subject of not being too keen on inflicting 10iar on ‘them’ – obviously I don’t know DD’s mind, very few will do; but how do you square the decision to keep the winning squad fully intact and spending c£20m on permanent and temporary transfers prior to the commencement of last season, with a desire to let it all ‘slip through the fingers,? The ‘Unsettled’ – Ajer, Edouard, Christie, Ntcham and even Julien, would have commanded more attention and bigger transfer fees then rather than now.
Is your main bone of contention based on the appointing and retention of Neil Lennon? Of so, I can fully agree with that. I thought NL to the end of season that Brendan left was the right decision and not using that time to procure a new man nearer to BR’s stature was negligence bordering on dereliction.
There has been abject failure in all three pillars on which Celtic rest – executive, managerial and players. I find it hard to believe that any these three would wish the club to be in its current state – but it has not happened by accident – some are culpable and the buck ultimately stops at the top.
I think Scott Brown left because he witnessed the decay first-hand. He didn’t need to go to Aberdeen to ease his way into coaching – I’m sure a similar role would have been available at Celtic.
So what has precipitated this crumble to dust during last season – arguably our most important for fifty years? Does anyone really know? I don’t.
Nail on head geebee. The lack of any structural changes despite messages stating that change was on the way are the usual board platitudes. Anyone who believed them taken for a mug as usual.
A couple of friendlies we had Scots ref , some of the decisions must have had Ange scratching his head , Madden tonight might have him tearing his hair out …
This could be the first Ange explosion …or will he be diplomatic and toe the line …
All will be answered in the next episode of ..are we in soapy bubbles .
Up the Hoops
JHB on 31ST JULY 2021 10:28 AM
I personally think the appointment of NL was a mixture of negligence and complacency. As Paul67 said, perfect to come in and steady the ship but should’ve been given a handshake and thanked for his work after the Hearts cup final. Looking back, it would’ve been better for both parties.
However, with only two seasons to go until the ten, the board may have thought Lennon was a “safe pair of hands”; someone who already knows the squad, the club and can hit the ground running; someone who won’t tear it up and start again with only two more titles needed.
The problem was, that massively underestimated the improvement of theRangers who were slowly gaining on us. The complacency was thinking that Lennon could guide the team, almost on auto-pilot through two more seasons. We got through one but I never thought we’d get through two and that isn’t with the help of hindsight – I said the same thing to my dad after the cup final.
Replacing BR like-for-like was never going to be easy but even if we’d taken a punt on a half-decent coach, we’d probably be odds-on for 11IAR this season while the other mob try to bed in a new manager and decimated squad.
TIMMY7_NOTED on 31ST JULY 2021 10:30 AM
Before anyone shoots me down, I’m not claiming any inside info and this is purely my hunch but I’m not totally convinced I buy the line that “we never wanted Harkin anyway”. I feel he might’ve done an “Eddie Howe” on us and now we already have our manager in place, it’s been put on the backburner.
We now have 56 members in our Superbru Comp – one more than Sevco titles- and all have made their predictions apart from Fess 19 who still has 3 to do, including the Celtic game.
I have great appreciation of your support.
55 more Shirley 😜
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 31ST JULY 2021 10:57 AM
“I have great appreciation of your support.”
I have a great appreciation for what you’re doing here, thank you. por cierto.
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 31ST JULY 2021 10:57 AM
Hi,
I joined and have made my predictions (I think). What’s the joining fee and how do i get it to you?
On the subject of not being too keen on inflicting 10iar on ‘them’ – obviously I don’t know DD’s mind, very few will do; but how do you square the decision to keep the winning squad fully intact and spending c£20m on permanent and temporary transfers prior to the commencement of last season, with a desire to let it all ‘slip through the fingers,? The ‘Unsettled’ – Ajer, Edouard, Christie, Ntcham and even Julien, would have commanded more attention and bigger transfer fees then rather than now.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well I be damned! I actually find myself agreeing with JHB! Not only did DD’s gamble to get the 10IAR cost the Club a fortune, but he personally saw 17 million wiped of the value of his shares. All this from a man who is being vilified for only being interested in making money (something he is normally excellent at).
Oh well, don’t let facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.
Ernie CSC
JHB on 31ST JULY 2021 10:28 AM
TGD’s interest in Celtic begins and ends with him being able to make money.
The only way he’s going to make serious money is by getting into the EPL.
That’s much more likely to happen as part of The Old Firm.
That requires a viable huns.
The huns know that they are a vital part of TGD’s strategy.
Consider how much leverage that gives them.
Then see whether that construction of events fits with what has transpired.
First game of the season tonight ,first 3 points towards the title .
Not 2/3 seasons this season is ours .
No negative thoughts here ,we are Celtic HH
BTW why did DD let Celtic get 9? Also, why not get the 10 and then destroy the Club from within? Questions questions? All for another day, as today is now going to be all about the start of a new era. Come on, Big Ange – you have Big Jock’s smile. I pray you have even a fraction of his abilities, and let’s rock.
COYBIG
Coming to a CFC forum near you — The Boardroom Strikes Back …
You have to hand it to the Cap Doffers / the Lawellites / the DD lackeys / the property bean counter groupies / the sock puppets / the astro-turf — they are not giving up without a fight.
Every trick under the sun is now being employed to save the reputations of PL and DD — tugging the heart strings / dead cat theatrics / charity squirrels / screeds and screeds of nothing / self congratulations all round.
You have to ask why — why are so many putting in so much effort to save the reputations of PL and DD?
Revisionism usually starts when the popular consciousness has moved on and memories of past failures have started to dim — now it starts 5 minutes after our latest failure that was the legacy of DD / PL / NL running our football club into the ground.
Finally P67 — the 30% statement regarding our hopes of winning the league this year …
Is that based on what has happened so far or is it based on what we will do by the start of September — all in all it was a pretty stupid statement and shows the limitations of your engagement with the club.
Why no comment about what would be needed to make it a 50% / 70% / 90% chance of winning the league and what is stopping us now from carrying it out?
The TFOD2.1 will burst a gut to get to the CL group stages this season.
Why are we giving them the equivalent of a free hit to make in automatically in 22/23?
Surely this has been discussed at boardroom level in the club and plans advanced to stop it happening so that our friends in Govan do not steal a huge economic advantage on us?
Your comment — expectation management ?!? — would suggest that the old guard are happy for this to happen and then you have to ask why?
DD is still working towards his EPL dream and he needs a stronger / credible TFOD2.1 in play to get there?
If that is the case then AP and DMcK don’t stand a chance.
The support is putting in £30mill plus this season for a calculated failure.
DD / Irish Raj / horse trader not business brain really has a brass neck you couldn’t mark with a blowtorch.
Shame on him for trying to pull off this stroke.
And shame on his band of groupies / apologists who provide the excuses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTgIiXt60e4
COYBIG
James McCarthy rumour
GEEBEE1978 on 31ST JULY 2021 10:43 AM
However, with only two seasons to go until the ten, the board may have thought Lennon was a “safe pair of hands”; someone who already knows the squad, the club and can hit the ground running; someone who won’t tear it up and start again with only two more titles needed.
The problem was, that massively underestimated the improvement of theRangers who were slowly gaining on us. The complacency was thinking that Lennon could guide the team, almost on auto-pilot through two more seasons. We got through one but I never thought we’d get through two and that isn’t with the help of hindsight – I said the same thing to my dad after the cup final.
——-
I agree with all you say here and it leads to speculation on the management style on Neil.
We seen a grateful and magnanimous Neil immediately after being appointed; indeed I remember him referring to the quality of the squad as “stellar” in his pre-match interview at Tynecastle. All during the remainder of the season he was constantly praising Brendan’s methods and reiterating a “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it” message.
After securing the triple-treble, did his mood, methodology and demeanour change towards the squad. His “f*** off” shout at Mikey Johnston when he come off injured, I think it was at Perth, really shocked me and made me wonder.
Did he lose respect in the dressing-room? I don’t know, but can anyone really say that the players performed for him last season.
Put a mediocre striker in a buzzing winning Celtic team and he will score his share of goals – put a mediocre manager in charge of a Celtic winning machine and he will win trophies……..until he is found out.
You mention complacency in underestimating the Ibrox threat – well we had warnings. They outplayed us on a number of occasions and their European results were impressive. We should have strengthened from a position of strength…..but how many times have we said that?
Bada
Not again
SCULLYBHOY on 31ST JULY 2021 11:22 AM
Also, in the eyes of most people (obviously not ours), the “Old Firm” was back as soon as they got promotion.
Add the media circus of Slippy, a title fight, and some decent European runs, Celtic didn’t need to be destroyed to raise the profile of Sevco in England…theirs was already as high, if not higher.
A couple more seasons like last season and there’ll be no “viable Old Firm” anyway as they’ll be the ones winning and we’ll be the basket case.
Dermot Desmond started his career in finance at Citibank, and later worked for the Investment Bank of Ireland and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
In 1981 he founded NCB Stockbrokers, which became Ireland’s largest independent brokerage; he sold it for $39 million in 1994.
With the proceeds, Desmond started his own private equity firm, International Investment & Underwriting.
IIU now has stakes in travel software firm Datalex, Mountain Province Diamonds, Barchester Healthcare and Glasgow soccer club Celtic PLC.
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Not bad for a horse trader non-business brain.
?????????????????????????????
DD is putting in nothing this season to the club.
The support is putting in £30mill possibly even £40mill this season.
And we are being set up to fail.
Question for all the Board groupies / Irish Raj apologists — what should be our net spend this transfer window?
A: -£10mill?
B: Break even?
C: +£10mill?
Finally should we have taken the SG money on offer?
If not — why not?
are lawellites members of the cumbie mitchy?
hh
SB @ 11.35
No matter his talents — he isn’t using them to help us at the moment.
He put his name to NL getting the managers job in 2019 — exactly 5 years after deciding that he was not good enough so I fear that he is not the man or business brain he used to be.
Not that he was ever a business brain — arbitrage is his style not business growth.
See LCY for proof.
Everything points to the EPL switcheroo.
That is a tough gig for a 9 year old basket of assets …
Unless you have outside help.
Uncle Dessie to the rescue.
JHB on 31ST JULY 2021 11:31 AM
Unfortunately, the warnings were dismissed from the top right down to the support.
We were well outplayed in the League Cup final but the response on here was “we can still beat them when playing badly”. I rejoiced in another cup win but deep down knew that the gap on the field had been whittled down to almost nothing.
After every European performance, I’d read that it was all down to the quality of opposition – “Benfica are pish”, “Porto are pish”, “Galatasaray are pish” and even “Midtjylland are pish” – that one didn’t age too well.
There was a sense that we’d stroll to league titles which is probably a natural reaction to such prolonged dominance but we can be sure, they won’t be as forgiving – whether they use fair means or not.
ERNIE LYNCH on 31ST JULY 2021 11:19 AM
———-
I understand your reasoning and take it all on board. I accept that DD believes that the only possible way into the EPL is a strong business case and that case must include Celtic & *Rangers…..”you can’t have one without the other”. I personally can’t imagine it in the foreseeable future – do you think DD can?
However, surely that would have still been the case if we were sitting today on 10iar?
Why did he sanction the expensive preparations at the start of last season, if that was the season that season he deemed must be lost to keep the ‘Old Firm’ dream alive?
Frank Terry @ 11.15
Donations- are £20 to
o Account name: Walk With Shay
o Account number: 15326765
o Sort code: 80-22-60
o Bank: Bank of Scotland
AN TEARMANN on 31ST JULY 2021 11:38 AM
are lawellites members of the cumbie mitchy?
hh
———-
AT – certainly no members of the Shamrock. :)😂
D :)
Toaty Trump @ 11.38
Right on cue — the squirrel tosser appears.
How about some substantive chat about the football / squad improvement / tonight’s game?
FYI — try Scumberned.
It was the insult of choice after the court case.
Too much seasoning at 11:43….sorry!
People seem to be confusing being a successful wealthy businessman with knowing football – “Person x is a billionaire so he must know what he’s doing”.
Are there enough minutes in the day today for me to list every wealthy businessman who hasn’t run a football club as well as his other interests?
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 31ST JULY 2021 11:45 AM
Cheers, will get that to you Monday at the latest.
GB78 @ 11.33
TFOD2.1 — first game at CP last season.
They turned up like a team of egg chasers without any backs of note.
They were going to play a limited game using the touchline / throw ins to put us under pressure.
I think they were playing for a draw or a steal based on a corner / free kick.
10 minutes in they worked out that we were not at the races and opened up the game for a win.
They are good because they know their opponents.
Plus a fair amount of luck has came in handy.
Last season you have to ask why they struggled in the local cups?
StM gave them a game they couldn’t handle and StJ at home turned it completely around in the second half .
Consequently they were not as great a team and their league form would suggest.
EuL — they worked every angle and looked happy to play grubby to make progress — my guess is that they have friends in high places or made efforts to have friends in high places.
LCF / Nov 2019 — we did not play well to the point I thought we were trying to give them the trophy.
Very poor performance compared to the recent cup games where we put in a shift.
EuL group matches being the prime example.
Our league form in contrast was poor at the time.
Jekyll and Hyde — You have to ask why?
GEEBEE1978 on 31ST JULY 2021 11:50 AM
People seem to be confusing being a successful wealthy businessman with knowing football – “Person x is a billionaire so he must know what he’s doing”.
——-
Indeed – look at Abramovich at Chelsea. He has appointed 15 managers in 18 years….but he has so much money, it doesn’t matter😆
In saying that, he has won 19 trophies in that time including 2 CLs, 2 ELs, 2 Super Cups, 5 EPLs, 5 FA Cups & 3 LCs……and he still gets stick!!!!
An Dún on 31st July 2021 9:48 am
Initially, I agreed with Hartson that given the squad overhaul, a rebuild would take two years.
The more I think about it, the more I disagree with it.
We’re the richest club in the country, taking a back seat for two years isn’t good enough.
With the will, the squad could be overhauled to an extent that no Club in Scotland could match this summer.
It’s akin to Man City telling themselves it would take a couple of years to compete with Leicester after they won the league.
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I am very like minded.
KEEP THE FAITH
Does the SPL / SFA put out Opta stats for all the games.
I know that we don’t do drugs testing but not sure if we do performance stats.
Given Scottish football’s history — the lack of drug testing has always surprised me.
Seems like a cheats charter to me.
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 31ST JULY 2021 11:45 AM
Frank Terry @ 11.15
Donations- are £20 to
o Account name: Walk With Shay
o Account number: 15326765
o Sort code: 80-22-60
o Bank: Bank of Scotland
———–
Or PayPal which I have done ( CRC and yourself kindly confirmed) which may be much easier for some.
May I I take this opportunity of thanking you both for the time and effort you are putting in for charitable causes.
HH.