My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
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C72- nail on the head.
Mick
I remember you posting during COVID about Bigyin and at the same time we were calling for South of Tunis.
CHARLIE72
👏
Sad to hear of the passing of the Big Yin. Condolences to his family and friends, Prayers said.
MM thank you for your piece on him. He must have been a remarkable person.
I took Garry’s moniker SFTB. Hope you don’t mind.
Bankier stepping down 1st Jan 2023 the PL Fan Club will be getting all excited…
Bada, stepping down from being a mediocrity? 😂
Anthony Joseph
@AnthonyRJoseph
·
46m
UPDATE: Celtic have rejected a bid from Toulouse for defender Stephen Welsh.
It’s understood the fresh offer was for a season-long loan with an option to buy in the region of £3.5m, plus add-ons.
Celtic don’t want to sell him as he is part of their first team plans.
Weeron@3:51
Please come back and post👍
Bankier stepping down 1st Jan 2023
Is that retiring from the board completely or stepping down from being chairman but still on the board and taking a wage. Entirely different situations as we found out about PL!
John McGinley
@jhnmcgnly
·
20m
Celtic has today announced that Ian Bankier is to stand down as a director and chairman of the club from 1st January 2023.
Good evening all from the Queens Park Cafe. You can never have enough good times.
Rest in Peace BIGYININMILAN
You are gonnae have some view of the Timaloys now. And I think this is gonnae be a special Season.
Best Seat in the House.CSC
Thanks Big Wavy👍
PRESTONPANS BHOYS on 29TH JULY 2022 4:31 PM
Thanks Big Wavy👍
—
Sorry fella, didn’t see yours when I posted…
So good we said it twice :)
HH
CHARLIE72 on 29TH JULY 2022 3:48 PM
Absolutely bizarre. You talk about TRFC more than about Celtic in a supposed State of the Club article. Their finances and income are totally irrelevant to Celtic. If they do well- so what? If they go bust again- so what?
————
The Dead club and now the newco financial madness unfortunately affects every other club in Scotland. The pre 2012 version could have taken many clubs to the wall. Aberdeen and Dundee United were ruined by them and have never really recovered.
They nearly ruined us too but we were fortunate to have a big enough and committed enough fanbase to turn it round and ultimately use the zombies own hubris against them.
As much as I don’t like it, they and their finances do matter to us. They impact us. To ignore them would ultimately be foolish.
Also, there are not many fan bases of any club who don’t like to see their rivals struggle and get a laugh out of their setbacks. It’s a natural part of football. It’s stronger in some than others.
I don’t see how it is bizarre?
RIP Big Yin In Milan. One of CQN’s finest.
WEEFRA
Great to have you back posting used to look forward to updates about your chooks and Dubs.
Sorry to hear about your wife, may she Rest In Peace.
RIP BIGYINMILAN. Professor Peter Boyle what a carreer in medicine for good of mankind.RIP
RIP BigyininMilan, a sad loss
We have reached the 60 figure of Superbru entrants- I can now start reminding over a dozen of you that you need to make your predictions by 12.30 tomorrow. You never have to “lock your picks” as, if you leave them unlocked , you can still change them in light of any developing situation, such as a righteous lightning bolt striking Ibrox and Murray Park
Peter Boyle was obviously a brilliant man who achieved remarkable things in his life,
Despite all his success & achievements the fact he would come on a Blog filled with nutters just to talk about Celtic is truly amazing.
May his sweet soul Rest at God’s right hand.
Ar Dheís Dé go raibh a anam dilis.
The finances are Ibrox are interesting. Loads of incoming trading surplus. Will RRM who took a bath on loans to equity swaps look to sell shares to get cash out and not look like bad guys? Would they be happy with a dividend?
ERNIE LYNCH on 29TH JULY 2022 10:58 AM
I loved the bit where the support are all clapping and one guy, who had a bandaged left hand, joined in nevertheless by clapping his shoulder with his one good hand !! ( About 55 seconds in ).
Big Jimmy
CRC reckons the “Walk With Shay” account that we are still using is a business account used for charity fundraising.
The PayPal account is a Personal one however but CRC is a trusted man to manage the money.
Loved the return of Big Ange’s presser.
The season has now officially begin.
HH
Sad to read about the passing of Bigyinin Milan.RIP.
Weefra, sorry read about the loss of your good lady.
Great to see you posting, might encourage others to follow suit.💚
BRRB…aye…Bankier has leaned to step under shite ;-)) Mibbe Nicholson will now step up 😂
H.H.
FESS19
Thank you so much for that. You have no idea how it feels to be to be back posting on this phenomenal blog. It really feels like home. Unfortunately no chooks or ducks left, a mink got in to the back field a bit the heads off the lot of them. Some mess to get up to I’ll tell you. The people who release these animals from captivity think they are doing brilliantly forgetting the devastation they cause in the countryside. HH
SIPSINI
Was just saying it’s great to be back. Hope you are keeping well Sips.
SIPS
Oops……HH
Anthony Joseph
@AnthonyRJoseph
Standard Liege are one of a number of clubs interested in signing Celtic winger Mikey Johnston.
The 23-year-old is attracting interest from the top leagues in Belgium & The Netherlands & also the English Championship.
No offers have come in yet. Celtic would be open to a loan.
+ Confimred by Ange in the presser that this is the aim so it’s goodbye (for now) MIkey…
HH
Thanks Paul67. Great sum up. F. all sleeps left. Yup, the hun could be half decent this season. However , I don’t think we will throw points away like we did early last season.
Alexander sacked by Motherwell
I posted this at the end of the last article. Mods feel free to delete if required
Very seldom post these days however i’m an avid reader of the blog
Firstly, condolensces to WeeFraTheTim on your loss , thoughts and prayers are with you and your family
Interested to see some of the comments and debate on Mikey, firstly i must declare a side in this as he is a family member, and i am immensely proud of him as a person and player. He has suffered some very unfortunate injuries throughout his career and hopefully can keep himself fit and fulfill his potential. Some may say its too late for him at Celtic however i personally know his ability and believe he may come back and silence some of his critics.
The main reason for me coming out of my bunker is to say that despite the debate being balanced on here, it saddens me to see some of the vitriol aimed at him on a daily basis from so called Celtic fans on Social Media. I have tried my best to sit back and ignore it however trust me when its aimed at one of your own, who is a died in the wool Celtic man, it is tough. I have also seen him being labelled as big headed but trust me, a more down to earth, level headed boy you would be pushed to find.
Maybe his career will be may Celtic, maybe not but the pride i have in seeing him pull on the hoops will last forever
SETTING FREE THE BEARS FOR RES. 12 & OSCAR KNOX on 29TH JULY 2022 4:48 PM
Big Jimmy
CRC reckons the “Walk With Shay” account that we are still using is a business account used for charity fundraising.
The PayPal account is a Personal one however but CRC is a trusted man to manage the money.
…………….
Cheers mate.
I will probably use the Bank Transfer BUSINESS Account.
ive no doubt that CRC is a good man, but I had problems with Paypal a few years ago, and lost a small amount of money…not much.
HH my friend.
Very enjoyable read Pablo.
Nice blend of facts, thought and heart.
Respect
SONOFADERRYMAN on 29TH JULY 2022 5:31 PM
An important post that reminds us that footballers are humans first and young humans in particular need lots of support.
I would love it if `Magic` comes back to Celtic and realises all his dreams.
Murderwell murder manager