My friends in Celtic, a year ago I wrote, “Right now our chances of winning the league are probably 30% – held back by so many unknowns.” The club had gone through a traumatic year in which we lost the league for the first time in a decade. A new manager and chief executive were in place, our captain retired, while several of our most important players were angling for a move.
Under any normal circumstances, 30% would seem ambitious, circumstances were not normal, however, well not normal for the football industry, anyway. Despite their year of trauma, Celtic were and are still run on a sustainable model, uniquely so, among clubs competing for the Scottish Premiership title.
A year ago I also wrote, “We can tip the balance in the weeks ahead”, a period which saw Carter-Vickers, Hart and Jota arrive, signings that would prove pivotal in the season’s outcome. Celtic won the league because they had the sustainable structure enabling it to rebuild quickly. It is that sustainability that brought Postecoglou, Kyogo and the other transformational figures to Glasgow.
No football club has a God given right to win. They will certainly not win everything if they are competing against a club perpetually gambling with their own viability. We lost our way in season 2020-21 and despite everything that went right last season, the title race was close, too close for comfort.
Newco looked dead on their feet (or hunkers, in one case), after they lost 3-0 at Celtic Park in February. That night we reached the top of the table for the first time in the season and appeared unstoppable. None of us saw the resilience Newco had to not only hang in there in the league, but cobble together an impressive run to the Europa League Final, and a sobering extra-time win over Celtic in the Scottish Cup semi-final.
Despite the title going to Celtic, Newco are entitled to believe they finished the season the stronger; for many reasons, they will be confident for the season ahead.
It has been so long since we reached the Champions League group stage without the difficulties of the qualifying rounds, our biometric systems are probably missing a summer of anxiety. While everything was going well domestically last season, Europe was a blot on the copybook. We exited CL qualification cheaply (and before recruitment was effective), suffered a sobering home defeat to German opposition (cough), while finishing third in the Europa League group, before truly humbling home and away losses to Bodo/Glimt.
If you are confident that we are ready for a crack at the Champions League group stage, you are made of sterner stuff than me. Still, the golden goose resides on the Celtic Way. Income will be determined by several factors yet to be confirmed, including performance and if another club from Scotland reaches the group stage, but, including gate receipts, I estimate we will earn £40m from the Champions League this season.
The club’s commercial department continue to ‘knock it out the park’ with each new round of deals. Add in the Ange Homecoming Tour, and we know this season will produce Celtic’s highest ever income. Income determines long term success in football, it is the climate, whereas results are the weather.
In the same State of the Club article last year, I also wrote, “What happens in [Newco’s} qualification tie against Malmo and if they progress, in the subsequent play-off round, will go a long way to determine how competitive the league race is over the next decade. It is the sting in the tale of losing such a momentous title.”
You will probably not remember, so it is worth me going over the details of how that tie transpired. Malmo won the first leg 2-1. At halftime in the return at Ibrox, they were 1-0 down and had a man sent off. Despite this, Newco managed to grab defeat from the winner’s podium; they missed out on the Champions League and the income it assured.
Despite this, a new manager and a new approach, allowed them to flourish in the Europa League. As a consequence, the perceived value of their players increased exponentially. They sold their best player for £6m and their best prospect for £20m, money that will enable them to recruit better and be stronger next season.
That transfer income and the considerable money earned from Europe last season will make Newco less dependent on shareholder loans. It will allow the club to submit profitable accounts for the first time ever. Such is their structural cost overhang, though, it provides only temporary relief.
They also have another crack at Champions League qualification. If they get there, it is game on. They are a club that previously always gambled beyond the edge of profitability, I expect them to throw everything at this season, irrespective of the consequences, in the hope of winning the title and through this, reaching the Champions League group stage in 2023.
Celtic will not follow them off the cliff. We will continue to work on our own plans and in a sustainable manner. But as you and I know, when you compete against a gambler, anything can happen.
As things stand, I am confident for the season ahead. We retained all our important players, including those only loan, brought in a left back and a strong and experienced central mid. I hear very encouraging things about Moritz Jenz, who it is hoped will become a big player for the club.
Crucially, the absence of European qualifiers enabled the squad to undertake more strength and endurance training than they would be able to do if they had competitive games to play. Think back to all those tired players we watched last season. A plan to address this has been executed.
So far, I think we have improve more than Newco. Expectations of winning the title sit at 60%, which still leaves a black 40% waiting ominously.
I seldom look at the CQN reader numbers but at the end of the year I looked back and saw this enormous peak on 10 August, the highest number of 2021. Curious, I typed “Celtic 10 August 2021” into my search engine. Nothing. I varied the search for a few minutes before it dawned. That was the date Malmo won at Ibrox.
Some people will mock us for this, but you and I know better. Football in Glasgow is a zero-sum game. That Malmo win was hugely important in determining the outcome of the Scottish Premiership, season 2021-22. If you don’t realise this, you have not been paying attention.
If Newco had Champions League income while Celtic were limited to Europa League money, all the parameters change. This season’s qualification tournament will not be as critical, for Celtic, anyway, but it remains a key determinant in comparative competitiveness.
You are entitled to be proud at the way your club responded to the loss of our first title in a decade. We have players, a manager, and a commercial operation that we have confidence in. They cannot win everything and will make mistakes, but what an exciting time to be a Celtic supporter.
Take care and enjoy the season.
Paul67.
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Stivs @ 7.48PM….swear to christ….I could strangle you ;-))
H.H.
I asked for that…….
Vogue,
any news on BIGRAILROADBLUES wherabouts, ………….
its been hours since he left the tent to go awander
Stivs
That’s the magic of the ghuy…Alan Whicker hasn’t got a look in.
Saint Stivs
A song for BRRB
https://youtu.be/_6MwzSaBBQY
Choon
Weefrathetim
So sorry for your loss. My thoughts and prayers are with you.
Comedians like Kevin Bridges or Frankie Boyle would be a laugh but maybe not serious enough.
–
Kev I.n DOING THE FACE PAINTER ROUTINE
Frankie pointing out how ugly rangers supporters are.
aye, i am conviced.
Sad, sad news about BigYinInMilan.
Ar dheis lámh Dhé go raibh a anam uasal.
Thanks, Paul. You will understand that this is the sort of item which fails to excite on the eve of the new SPFL campaign. However, in my opinion, it is relevant, insightful and thought-provoking. Of course the financial stability of our only credible rivals to SPFL success (referees excluded) is a matter we should be aware of. Gamblers win occasionally, but lose most of the time and, overall, lose with inevitability. (I should know, I’ve been gambling for 62 years). But that only holds true if the metaphorical dice are not loaded. Is that the case in this context? (Rhetorical question). Our club’s history of financial “management” (?mismanagement) has never been fully opened to public scrutiny, but, arguably (?) has contributed to our lack of competitiveness in the darker years. From what I think I know – and that probably isn’t much – we are now in an era of “fiscal equilibrium”. (Yeah, I know, has everybody gone to sleep or logged off?). The much maligned Peter Lawell – a Celtic man to the core of his being – made a significant contribution to this desirable state. Future success on the playing field – which, of course, is what motivates us all – is in no small way dependent upon that underpinning. I think we are in for a memorable year. Much excitement; more success than failure; a springboard for even greater future success. Hail Hail.
First name that springs to mind for the role of Chairman is Willie Haughey.
But he probably wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. DD will probably promote from within. Sleepy Brian Wilson ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxP4dPzyv2s
its got wee frankie words
Braw
R.I.P. BIGYININMILAN a life well lived.🙏
KEEP THE FAITH
;)
:)))))))))))))))))))))))
SAINT STIVS on 29TH JULY 2022 7:48 PM
Ah ya bugger , you stole my line👍😂😂😂😂
Jimdom
Willie Haughey was a director during Fergus McCann time, Fergus got rid of him.
I think he now has interest in Queens Park
Martin 42
Very sad to hear the sad news about Big Yin in Milan. I remember well his posts on here. May He Rest In Peace. Amen. 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🍀🍀🍀
Watching Union Gilloise against Charleroi.Battering Charleroi 0-0.Big ,strong,and quick team.Lacking a bit up front but commentator saying a couple to come in against the scum.
Look very well drilled,but who knows.
See how the second half goes.
The Original Sadies bhoy.
You set?
You musta seen mer flags than a twelfth walk! :-)
And yours are green b white
Enjoy Sunday
HH
Bigbhoy
Willie Haughey,sound by Jinky,good human and Celtic man.💚
HH
I’m back in Govanhill ya cheeky shower of young rascals. 😂
Awful news about BIGYININMILAN.
Rest in peace.
It’s a different Blog without MM and EL.
Long may it continue.
Maybe George Galloway for Chairperson. Might put £49 on it, dimtim that I am.
😂😂
weefratim
Condolences to you and yours on your recent loss
And also RIP BigYinInMilan, condolences to friends and family
William Hill odds for Sunday- first half. Philbhoy to go apeshit/tonto/doolali 1/3. Second half- Philbhoy to spontaneously combust 4/5. Pile in lads.😂😂
Jackiemac
Glasgow West End
Don’t know what you are looking for, however
Up around the Uni – Ashton Lane – Brel, Jinty McGinty’s, Chip, Wee Curry Shop
Special meal – Argyle St – Two Fat Ladies at the Buttery
Anything else, give me a shout
Mod1888
I miss park the bus’s 9 other blog names
NOT
RobertTressell @ ages ago
It was like that when the original Rainjurz were alive.
There are many posters that refuse to reconcile or compare Celtic in terms of aliveness, never mind with Sevco’s finances, or status.
References or comparisons grate daily on CQN, but a lot of other supporters also dreaded and saw it coming, from the moment Charles Green got the spare licence. The fact that it’s in court as we speak and Rangers are still in liquidation is bound to make Celtic supporters react.
The war against Sevco is only in its beginnings and it’s a baton we all have to lift. There is whether we like it or not an entity with a similar sized fan base who get alot of additional help.
BRRB
Me lose ma temper????
Never ya feckin bambot you’re gettin malkied in September when yer back fay yer estates in God’s Country ya bassa!!!!!!!
Well that’s me telt. 😂😂
BRRB
Indeed!
Thought you were of to Turkey soon too?
Turn 2 on the Mod88 night
Philbhoy and BRRB as Frankie and Josie
Braw
NEUSTADT-BRAW 9.08.
😂😂😂😂
Cheeky nearly me misplacing Almores’ season ticket so I can b at flag-day…
am not that selfish ;-))
H.H.
Phil, Zante in September. Hopefully after giving the huns a sound thrashing. 👍
BRRB
Jealous!