My friends in Celtic, on Sunday we will gather to watch the league flag fly high above Celtic Park, the Scottish Cup is on display in the boardroom and in six weeks we will be among the first fans to watch the new Champions League format get underway.
Financially, things have literally never been better. A year ago, our net cash position was £72m, aided by the ridiculously inflated price achieved for Jota (love him lots but never a £25m player). Since then, we have banked Champions League money and the bounty from the best commercial deals in the land. We have known worse.
Despite the welcome permanent signing of Paulo Bernardo yesterday, at this stage of the transfer window, we are weaker than we were at the end of the season. There is a substitute striker shaped hole in the squad, which Adam Idah is doing his best to fill. For the (very) hard of thinking, let’s remind ourselves:
You can sign any old rubbish early in the window (with a few exceptions), but clubs who own players in demand do not sell until late August. If you are in doubt, think of Matt O’Riley, who is clearly wanted by clubs in England and Italy, but there is no amount of money Celtic would be prepared to accept until late in the window AND they have backfill. This is how transfer windows work, the whole world knows it, so let’s not pretend we are new to the game.
One year ago, Celtic were hot favourites to win the league. They had just successfully retained their title, had money in the bank with no Champions League qualification worries. After three years which saw a league title, a Europa League final and Champions League participation, our only challengers, Newco, were back in crisis mode.
Michael Beale was sacked in October as their season fell apart. What should have been a procession to Celtic’s third successive title, turned into a mishandled campaign. Our disintegration on the park was so evident, by February I was convinced we would lose the league (don’t think I mentioned that here at the time).
History is the tale of fine margins. Philippe Clement steadied Newco and overturned Celtic’s lead in the table, but the steam escaped from his engine on a field in Dingwall in April. It was a stupid result the like of which Celtic endured earlier in the campaign, but Clement’s ability to push his squad had expired. For Celtic, this was an enormous break.
That campaign is a lesson for anyone who believes we are a shoo-in for four-in-a-row. A few injuries (you can bet we will get them) and a failure to successfully develop supporting players (you can bet……), and we could be plunged into trouble again.
It is popular to poke fun at Clement, but he is a far better manager than Beale, Gerrard or McCoist (who was hopeless). If he stays in Glasgow, he will build his own team and put proper pressure on Brendan, even with a budget which is likely to be significantly below ours.
Our budget and development strategy was easy to ascertain for a long time; not so much now. That £72m net cash position we reported a year ago is likely to be dwarfed when the figures for the year to June 2024 are released; I expect at least £10m on top of that.
When our old pal Peter Lawwell was in charge, he lived to the motto, “Every penny that comes in will be spent over any business cycle you care to mention” – and they still complained! Peter lived at the sharp end of football and once told me, “When people give you money, there is an expectation you will spend it.”
Let’s be clear, having lots of money in the bank is a great thing for a football club; if the tables were turned, you and I would be distraught at the comparison across the city. But that expectation Peter Lawwell talked about remains. Celtic are a football club who have a duty to invest appropriately in football stock.
How we invest is also important. The model which found and developed Matt O’Riley and which works for so many aspiring clubs in Europe, is without question the way forward. Alternative models, where clubs buy players at their peak, earning big wages and without scope to appreciate in value, is full of short-term gain but has zero strategic benefit.
We should also acknowledge a harsh fact. Great managers, though Ange Postecoglou and Brendan Rogers were for us, the last Celtic boss who achieved anything in Europe was Neil Lennon. Celtic are in the Champions League again this season because our coefficient monkeys across the city did very well in Europe for three successive seasons.
I expect we are now at the end of that cycle and Scotland’s coefficient will drop for a period. This will make Champions League income less likely, irrespective of what money we spend or signing strategy we follow.
Our board can expect a peak cash position next summer. Their challenge is to take what is unquestionably an embarrassment of riches, and develop the team and facilities in a manner which grows the top line.
If you think that’s easy, I suggest there is a peak on the Dunning Kruger chart for you. Players competitively valued in the £10m bracket (i.e. by others in the market, not just by Norwich City), tend to have lots of options, usually a few better than the Scottish Premiership. They also have pay offers which would blow apart Celtic’s wage structure. Having all that cash guarantees you nothing.
There are other calls on our resources. Celtic Park is a 20th century stadium and we are already a quarter of the way through the 21st century. Football fans tolerance has changed over the generations. Consumer expectations in the middle of this century will be miles ahead of what we currently call home.
I would like to see a 20-year plan to redevelop Celtic Park. Turnstiles should be at the edge of the footprint, not at the stadium. Fans arrive at the ground early as it is, even without anything to do, but we should get them through the gates and into restaurants, cafes, shops and bars. Not just merchandise shops either.
The South and North stands are poor. Hundreds of office staff work in the South Stand, all office business should be relocated to Barrowfield or another area of the footprint. We are a football club which is short of premium seating area. There is a huge space which can be used for premium seating area right beside where the fans sit. Make it happen, or at the very least, tell us why such a move does not offer a return on investment.
I am more familiar with the North Stand. The top deck has fewer facilities than anywhere else in the stadium. It is also the highest part of the ground and on a warm day like Sunday, the wind will cut you in two. The premium seating area is too small to walk around, never mind properly dispense food.
This stand overhangs the Eastern Necropolis and Janefield St. Before Celtic Park was redeveloped in 1994, Janefield St was a mixed residential and commercial road. Celtic were required to keep it open for traffic. Now Celtic Park is the only property on the street and the road is a local rat-run outside of match days. The whole area should be redeveloped.
I have no idea what it is possible to do in or over the cemetery, but if there is nothing more can be done, we have to acknowledge that the North Stand Upper is under-provided for and price it accordingly. We need more premium seats (South Stand) but we will always need cheap seats. Celtic have to cater for those who cannot afford expensive days out.
If we struggle to attract players to Scotland, I am sure the support would get behind a plan to upgrade our facilities and prepare Celtic Park for the next generation. The next two years could be our last opportunity to consider this action for a very long time.
Right now, I give Celtic a 70% chance of winning the league this season (3% higher than a year ago). There is work to do, even if Matt O’Riley stays, I am not convinced with midfield, defence or attack options. Clement has his hands full but expect him to make the most of what is available to him.
There is no reason to expect anything substantial from the Champions League; the successful Gordon Strachan era is now a distant memory. What we do have, is abundant options, hard earned over decades.
Celtic Quick News started 20-years ago last week. A few months in, when we were losing on the park and letting the league slip away, I noted we were in the early years of a Generation of Domination. It was totally obvious. One large club in Scotland had a plan to pay its bills, the other was playing casino football and would inevitably crash and burn.
20 years on and nothing has changed. Celtic continue to act strategically, Newco act without a thought for tomorrow, despite John Bennett’s words. Until Newco tell their fans they need to spend less on wages and transfers, and live with coming second to Celtic for a period of years in the hope of an improvement in the medium term, nothing will change. We will lose the odd league and cup, but goodness, this Generation thing is outlasting anything we dared dream of.
Celtic is a great gift to us, enjoy every minute of the season, win, lose or draw.
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is the opposite not what paul is saying ?
we got £25m for Jota who paul thinks was over rated ……….
so how much should matt go for ?
This is a complex balance of player price and wage demands, so I understand why emptying out the bank account won’t solve our problems, on the contrary, we’ll end up like that other mob after a short sugar rush.
One area we must improve (I know it’s been tried before) is the pitch.
Our guys should be playing on a carpet 12 months a year, as it helps our style of play over other domestic teams. A proper strategy and ‘whatever it takes’ financial approach will fix this, despite the challenges of Scottish weather. My 10c worth.
reminder – the strategy is laid out every year in the annual report, do we all read it ? understand it ?
I would be grateful if someone could tell me where the strategy is failing to be executed,
————-
STRATEGY, THE BUSINESS MODEL AND OBJECTIVES
The Group’s objective is to be a world-class football club
through our strategy and business model for growth focusing
on three key areas:
(i) Core Business – football operations with a self-sustaining
financial model, relying upon: youth academy; player
development; player recruitment; management of the player
pool; sports science and performance analysis; and football
success.
(ii) Development of the Celtic Brand – incorporating the
development of Celtic Park and the development of
international revenues.
(iii) Improvement in the football environment in which Celtic
plays – representation within football governance and
administration at domestic and European level
SAINT STIVS on 2ND AUGUST 2024 2:17 PM
Add the Abada money to that as he left in February.
that is the 2023 results,
2024 will be out around 22nd september.
So we start the League campaign with one Striker and still No back-up for GT, who is yet to sign a contract extension. Whoever is responsible for recruitment should be chased out of Celtic Park by DD. But the Board are No doubt working flat Out to sell MOR. Mon the business model.
Also, congratulations on 20 years Paul. Still remember finding the blog for the first time and lurking from almost day one.
Brendan today:
“I’m not going to get bogged down with the negative toxic energy that comes around transfers”
test
The most concerning sign for me is what Brendan Rodgers is not saying. He is not saying we are working on deals for players we have identified.
This board are winging it , waiting for last minute scraps and hoping we pull it off. Biscuit tin mentality gambling league dominance and simply not caring at all about Europe.
Why do we bother ? That I feel is changing too!!
Saint Stivs on 2nd August 2024 2:15 pm
You really are obsessed with me….please stop it son.
“the bounty from the best commercial deals in the land”
—
did the bounty ever get unveiled to the media in all its delicious chocolatey-ness? 🥥🍫
bet that greedy rastard Lawell ate it 😡
20 years, Paul67. Many congratulations. I think I discovered CQN about 16 years ago.
stebhoy on 2nd August 2024 2:50 pm
Have you ever posted a positive post?
Do you go to games?
Do you get any enjoyment from supporting Celtic?
Does our astonishing success for so many years give you any pleasure at all?
“The guys have been working so hard behind the scenes”
“We know what we need to do, we know where we need to improve and we have just under 4 weeks to do that”
“So many components in a transfer, something comes into you late you might want to do, something that comes out of the blue, or sometimes those clubs wait until really late in in the window before those players become available, that was the case with Paolo last season and before that with Cameron Carter Vickers”
“onenightinlisbon on 2nd August 2024 2:51 pm
Saint Stivs on 2nd August 2024 2:15 pm
You really are obsessed with me….please stop it son.”
I wouldn`t call questioning your negativity an obsession.
Considering our amazing success of late, I would think any negativity is worthy of questioning.
PS That does NOT mean there should be no negativity but some posters do nothing else but complain and criticise ( usually without any real evidence whatsoever).
https://i2-prod.footballscotland.co.uk/incoming/article29665893.ece/ALTERNATES/s1227b/0_21125608.jpg
https://i2-prod.footballscotland.co.uk/incoming/article29665898.ece/ALTERNATES/s1227b/0_21125569.jpg
https://i2-prod.footballscotland.co.uk/incoming/article29665896.ece/ALTERNATES/s1227b/0_21125602.jpg
“And with Jota”
Paul,
Good article, reminds me of the early days of CQN.
Congratulations on 20 years. I was a reader from the really early days.
Instead of giving up completely on the UCL, our short term target should be to get a couple of wins. Then 3 wins….
Players who have been instrumental in winning UCL games will raise our ceiling. There is a better future there than the one we have.
I can see us spending big on our stadium (as we should), then sevco become sevco 3. Then 10’s of thousands of seats are empty…..
We need to show more ambition.
All the best Ronnie
Tee hee, just start branding the Board “Tories” for that extra bit of vitriol.
Was Brian Wilson not a Labour politician🤔
Hot Smoked on 2nd August 2024 2:58 pm
I can make no comment without this stalker having a go.
He is unable to scroll on.
As far as being “negative” goes, I call it as I see it. Like it or not.
The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on 2nd August 2024 3:00 pm
You think that Starmer and co are actually Labour politicians? FFS
“Jota (love him lots but never a £25m player).”
—
ehhh,
he IS a £25m player because someone paid £25m for him.
a player is only worth what a team is prepared to pay for him.
if no-one was prepared to pay that for him then he wasnt worth that.
but they did, and so he was.
pretty simple really.
Chairbhoy
“Cool – where has that got us….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr63Bexo8z8”
———————————-
Looking for clarification on this double meaning post.
Since you used the plural pronoun “us”, my initial assumption was that you believe CQN (and you) are part of some In-crowd, which is a bit of a boastful claim, that I would want to dissociate myself from.
The less attractive interpretation is that it was a dig at CQN or Paul, but you included yourself in the criticism.
What did you mean to convey?
We had a good squad last season but we needed to improve on that. Thus far we’re short, even on those numbers. Paulo coming back is great but we’re still short on that.
Brendan, an hour ago…
This Sunday, The only time i’ll look forward to seeing a dentist
SFtBs @ 3:16 PM,
Us is the Royal weee…..
Hail Hail
BADA
Yip, and he finds the need in every single interview to say that to the supporters
!!Bada Bing!! on 2nd August 2024 3:17 pm
Good to hear him stating his case, as he did so previously to no avail.
If I remember correctly the blog existed for a while before CelticQuickNews was registered.
celticquicknews.co.uk
Registered on: 23-Jul-2004
In case you’re reading Paul67
Many congratulations on twenty years of CQN, remarkable dedication to Celtic and the Celtic Community.
And thank you for providing a platform for so many of us to talk base for so long, it’s been a feature of many of our lives for two decades now
Baws not base
Enjoy your day ONL 👍
Hot smoked
Your questions are irrelevant to me. Are you asking me or Brendan Rodgers. Does he go to the games , is he being negative etc etc?
Listen son , Celtic has only two windows per season to improve. The key window is now – asking the board to spend money now is not negative – it’s forward thinking. I want Celtic to to win the league, play better that we did last season and improve our status in Europe. So far , I’m not seeing continuous improvement.
Putting pressure on the board is the only show in town right now! See Brendan Rodgers “pleads” (3 in one week).
I’ll get back to supporting the team once the season is running and the window closes. I don’t need to justify myself !
https://youtu.be/8t3D3xXG5y4?si=13Lq_0cn8qGWVeKw
Brendan today…
Judging by his comments, BR is beginning to get very irked at the lack of incomings.
MELVIN UDALL on 2ND AUGUST 2024 2:02 PM
Yes, but just one supporters opinion in a sea of green and white. Adam Idah will cost £12M if you believe in some. It’s an open single thread platform to state your opinion, whether you’re a happy clapper, mineshafter, bedwetter, spoiled brat, or whatever 👍
The Blogger Formerly Known As GM on 2nd August 2024 3:41 pm
You too